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Matt Phillips4/14/25

Why Palantir’s NATO deal is important

AI and defense software firm Palantir Technologies is up after NATO announced it bought Palantir’s Maven Smart System software for use within NATO’s Allied Command Operations.

NATO’s purchase of Palantir software — which connects military intelligence and surveillance information with AI capabilities to identify potential targets, among other things — is more than just a revenue win, wrote Louis DiPrima, an analyst covering Palantir for brokerage firm William Blair.

“This agreement has broader geopolitical significance than just another win for Palantir in the context of investor concerns that Europe is looking to decrease reliance on US defense contractors. In our view, this announcement has favorable read-throughs across the US defense sector; Europe will likely remain large buyers of US systems with increasing defense budgets.”

Palantir Stock Rises After NATO Acquires AI-Powered Maven Smart System

Palantir Stock Rises After NATO Acquires AI-Powered Maven Smart System

“This agreement has broader geopolitical significance than just another win for Palantir in the context of investor concerns that Europe is looking to decrease reliance on US defense contractors. In our view, this announcement has favorable read-throughs across the US defense sector; Europe will likely remain large buyers of US systems with increasing defense budgets.”

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Matt Phillips41m

Corning reports better-than-expected Q4 results

Glassmaker Corning, which saw its shares explode higher Tuesday after announcing an up to $6 billion deal to supply fiber-optic equipment for Meta AI data centers in coming years, issued its Q4 numbers before the start of trading Wednesday.

The company reported:

Non-GAAP core earnings per share of $0.72 vs. consensus expectations of $0.71 from analysts, according to FactSet.
Core sales of $4.41 billion vs. a $4.36 billion consensus estimate from analysts.

The company expects Q1 2026 core sales of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of $4.26 billion from Wall Street, with core EPS between $0.66 and $0.70, the midpoint of which is a penny higher than the Street’s estimate of $0.67.

Investors traded the stock, which rose 16% on Tuesday after the Meta news, down 3.4% before markets opened. Through the end of Tuesday’s session, shares had nearly doubled over the last six months.

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Matt Phillips1h

GE Vernova, cornerstone of AI energy trade, dips after Q4 profit trails estimates

GE Vernova, which makes turbines used in power plants and has been a cornerstone in the AI power trade, is falling after posting a mixed bag of Q4 results on Wednesday morning.

Adjusted EBITDA of $1.16 billion fell short of the $1.25 billion estimate from analysts polled by Bloomberg, dragged down by a loss in its wind business.
Total revenue came in at $10.96 billion vs. the $10.21 billion consensus expectation from analysts polled by FactSet.
GE Vernova gave full-year 2026 sales guidance of between $44 billion and $45 billion vs. a consensus estimate of $42.13 billion.
New orders came in at $22.2 billion vs. expectations for $18.28 billion.

GE Vernova is up some 400% over the last two years, but the majority of those gains were booked by August 2025. Since then, the shares have been largely range-bound, and are down a bit after this morning’s report.

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J. Edward Moreno1h

Starbucks jumps after same-store sales beat estimates in Q1

Starbucks rose 8% in premarket trading Wednesday after it reported financial results that beat Wall Street estimates on same-store sales for its fiscal Q1, with management projecting better-than-expected results for that key metric for the full fiscal year.

For the last three months of 2025, Starbucks reported:

$9.9 billion in revenue, higher than the $9.6 billion analysts were penciling in.
Same-store sales growth of 4%, significantly higher than the 2.3% analysts polled by FactSet had estimated. This marks the second consecutive quarter where that key metric was positive.
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, less than the $0.59 the Street was expecting.

The sales beat is a sign that CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround plan, which includes ideas like the “bearista cup” and extending seasonal drink periods, may be taking hold.

The company also shared its first financial outlook since suspending its forecast in October 2024. For its fiscal year ending in September, Starbucks guided for same-store sales to rise by at least 3%, more than the 2.83% growth that Wall Street was projecting. Management also expects annual adjusted earnings per share in a range of $2.15 to $2.40, compared to the $2.35 analysts were estimating.

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Intel jumps amid report it will play a role in manufacturing Nvidia GPUs in 2028, CFO purchases $250,000 in company stock

Intel is surging this morning amid one confirmed vote of executive suite confidence in the company and a rumored one that could be much more significant.

Starting with the latter, Taiwanese industry outlet DigiTimes reports that Intel will play a role in Nvidia GPUs for the Feynman generation, the successor to the upcoming Vera Rubin generation, which is expected to be released in 2028. Specifically, the report says that Nvidia will “partially utilize” Intel for the I/O die, or the part of the module that facilitates communication, as well as for about 25% of packaging. The remainder would be handled by TSMC, which is also slated to retain its role in manufacturing the Feynman architecture’s brains.

In September, Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel as part of a pact to develop data center and PC products. This report, if confirmed, would make a significant enhancement of this partnership.

And as for the support from inside the house: a filing released after the close on Tuesday showed that Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner bought nearly $250,000 in company stock on Monday. That purchase came as shares tumbled more than 20% after management issued guidance for Q1 that came in below Wall Street’s view.

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J. Edward Moreno2h

Elevance Health beats estimates on earnings, slumps on underwhelming guidance

Elevance Health, already battered after the Trump administration proposed keeping payments to private Medicare plans flat in 2027, reported earnings results on Wednesday that beat Wall Street estimates, but gave a disappointing full-year outlook.

For the last three months of 2025, Elevance Health reported:

$3.33 adjusted earnings per share, compared to the $3.10 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.
$49.3 billion in revenue, compared to the $49.8 billion the Street was penciling in.
A medical cost ratio of 93.5%, right in line with estimates.

For full-year 2026, the company expects to report:

Annual adjusted earnings per share of at least $25.50, short of the $29.99 analysts are currently penciling in.

The report comes after the Trump administration said Tuesday it would seek roughly no change in rates for Medicare insurers, sending Elevance and a host of other major Medicare Advantage providers lower. The proposal complicates the turnaround story insurers like Elevance had been telling investors after taking a major hit in 2025 amid higher-than-expected medical costs.

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