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Adios, ERP

By one measure, stocks haven't looked this bad in decades

Earnings are important, but they aren't everything in the stock market.

Jack Raines

Are stocks too expensive? The answer is... it depends.

In finance, we use the term "equity risk premium" (ERP) to measure the difference between expected returns from stocks, which are risky assets, and Treasury securities, which are risk-free, to see how much investors are being compensated for taking on additional risk. Typically, the equity side of this equation is the earnings yield, or expected earnings divided by price, of the S&P 500.

Currently, the S&P's expected 2024 earnings yield is 4.2%, while its expected 2025 yield is 4.8%, per Y Charts. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasuries are paying approximately 4.6%.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that, as higher interest rates have pushed Treasury yields up, the S&P 500's equity risk premium (using forward earnings estimates) touched its lowest level in 20 years.

S&P ERP
Source: Wall Street Journal

This doesn't seem great for stocks! Why invest in equities when you can earn almost the same amount of yield as you would by investing in risk-free Treasuries?

Well, one reason is that the S&P 500's earnings don't necessarily dictate its returns.

Going back to 1960, the average current earnings yield was 6.5%, while the average forward earnings yield was 7.0%. Over that same period, the S&P 500 still averaged 8.6% annual returns.

In layman's terms, the S&P 500 tends to outperform its earnings yield from year to year.

Yes, as interest rates stay higher, Treasuries become more attractive investments. That being said, stocks aren't necessarily doomed just because the ERP has narrowed.

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Lightwave Logic drops following Q1 earnings

Lightwave Logic released its Q1 earnings report Wednesday postmarket. The company reported increasing shortfalls as the photonics company continues to scale. Investors reacted by pushing the stock slightly down after-hours.

Here are the numbers: 

  • Revenue of $29,000, 27% growing year-over-year.

  • Net loss of $6.3 million, widening 34% year-over-year.

The material photonics company, which designs and provides polymers to speed the flow of information from chip to chip, hit a four-year high this week and has risen nearly 400% since January. Daily options volumes on the stock hit a record high ahead of this release.

The stock has been boosted by an explosion of AI data center demand and interest in the growing industry of photonic integrated circuits for data center connectivity.

On their afternoon earnings call, Lightwave Logic CEO Yves LeMaitre reiterated that he believes the company is "positioned to help address some of the most important challenges facing AI infrastructure over the coming decade."

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USA Rare Earth gains after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results

USA Rare Earth is rising in postmarket trading after releasing better-than-expected Q1 results.

Key numbers:

  • Revenue of $5.67 million (compared to analyst estimates of $4.22 million).

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.12 (estimate: a $0.14 loss).

Management aims to achieve 3,000 metric tons per annum of run rate for metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end, along with 600 MTPA of run rate for magnet manufacturing capacity.

The results come during a period of unease in the global rare earth market. China previously moved to drastically curb critical mineral access in October, adding five new elements to its export controls and freezing supplies to semiconductor manufacturers. These materials may be on the agenda during discussions between US and Chinese leadership this week.

In response, the US has scrambled to build domestic production buffers. In January 2026, USA Rare Earth secured a landmark $1.6 billion government-backed package from the Department of Commerce, which included a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS and Science Act and $277 million in direct incentives in exchange for a 10% federal equity stake.

The company also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil. The $2.8 billion acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

markets

Cisco surges on Q3 earnings beat and better-than-expected Q4 outlook

Cisco rose double digits after beating Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and giving optimistic projections due to increasing demand from the AI industry.

Shares were 13% higher in after-hours trading.

The tech company reported: 

  • Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $15.6 billion).

  • Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 (estimate: $1.04).

  • Q4 revenue guidance between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion (estimate: $15.8 billion).

  • Q4 adjusted earnings guidance of $1.16 to $1.18 (estimate: $1.07).

Management upped its outlook for expected orders from hyperscalers this fiscal year to $9 billion from $5 billion.

Shares in the company have climbed more than 60% over the past calendar year and traded at record highs this week — surpassing $100 on Wednesday afternoon — fully riding the AI infrastructure wave. All these data centers need Cisco’s networking equipment as well as more from the likes of Arista Networks and HP Enterprise, both of which are being boosted postmarket from these results.

Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco, said:

Cisco is well positioned as the critical infrastructure for the AI era, building on our technology leadership and customer trust, while innovating at the speed and scale that our dynamic world demands.

While demand for Cisco’s products has been climbing, the price of memory also remains elevated — which can create tension between booming sales and pressure on profitability.

Looking toward the full year, the company updated its outlook to expect revenue ranging between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $61.1 billion.

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