America’s tip economy, visualized

How America taxes tips is set to change — but not everyone will benefit equally from the “No Tax on Tips” provision.

9/22/25 10:31AM

In January, President Trump said at a rally in Las Vegas, “If you’re a restaurant worker, a server, a valet, a bellhop, a bartender, or one of my caddies... or any other worker who relies on tipped income, your tips will be 100% yours.”

That line became the “No Tax on Tips” provision in July — as part of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — letting workers earning under $150,000 a year deduct up to $25,000 in tips from their federal taxable income from 2025 through 2028.

And last Friday, the Treasury and IRS revealed a draft rule giving a clearer picture of who might benefit — and who won’t. The proposal includes a list of 68 jobs where tipping is common, from bartenders and fast-food workers to makeup artists and locksmiths, alongside IRS data on how often tips are reported.

Roughly 70% to 80% of wait staff, bartenders, and gambling dealers report tips, which account for 60% to 70% of their wages. Musicians, dancers, and digital creators tell a different story: only about 3% to 9% report tips, yet for those who do, tips can make up a third to half of their income. In contrast, home maintenance and repair crews rarely report tips, and when they do, it’s mostly pocket change. Of course, these figures in general are likely understated, assuming some workers underreport or misreport tips on their tax forms.

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Not every job on the list makes the cut. The law excludes those tied to “specified service trades or businesses,” such as health, law, finance, athletics, and performing arts — meaning actors, musicians, and dancers won’t qualify. Meanwhile, digital creators like Twitch streamers and podcasters are in, but with one big asterisk: tips tied to illegal activity, prostitution, or pornographic activity don’t qualify, carving out adult content platforms like OnlyFans. The Treasury has scheduled a public hearing for October 23 before finalizing the rules.

So how big is this, for households and for Washington?

The White House’s Council of Economic Advisors says tipped workers will gain ~$1,300 a year in take-home pay. That affects roughly 4 million Americans, or 2.5% of the US workforce — many of whom already owe little or no income tax, per the Yale Budget Lab.

Meanwhile, the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the tax break will cost $32 billion over its temporary four-year run.

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Ahead of Mother’s Day, Google searches for “same day flower delivery” have ticked up a little earlier this year

If you’ve already made plans for a Mother’s Day gift in advance of this Sunday, congratulations. But if alarm bells are suddenly ringing, consider this a gentle reminder that, like a sizable share of the US population this time of year often does, you can still scrape together some last-minute flowers for the woman who carried you for nine months.

Data from Google Trends reveals that searches for “same day flower delivery” spike in the US in May every year, when Mother’s Day takes place. As we noted last February, the same query also gains traction around Valentine’s Day.

This year, however, it appears that searches for last-minute flowers have remained elevated in the last two months after the usual peak in February — with the search interest this April actually exceeding that seen around Cupid’s Day.

Honestly, we’re not sure why searches are spiking a little early. One explanation might be that Passover and Easter have overlapped at the start of April, and Americans wanted to celebrate with some flowers. Maybe it’s a host of Claude bots that are now running errands for AI-obsessed execs — or perhaps Americans are just impulse-buying some seasonal spring blooms after an unusually warm March, without a particular occasion.