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US Capitol Building Obscured By Steam
US Capitol in Washington, DC (Julia Nikhinson/Bloomberg)

The clock never stops ticking on America’s national debt problem

The Congressional Budget Office warned that the US government could run out of money as early as May — and that’s just the short-term concern.

On Tuesday, the Congressional Budget Office warned that the US government could run out of money to pay its bills in August or even earlier, in a worst-case scenario.

How did we get here?

When the debt ceiling kicked back in at the start of 2025, following the end of a 19-month suspension, it was reset at $36.1 trillion, the amount of debt outstanding at the time.

Since then, the Treasury began relying on temporary accounting maneuvers (known as extraordinary measures) to keep funding the government without breaching the cap. However, even those emergency tactics will run dry by the so-called “X-date” — a date that’s difficult to pin down exactly — which the CBO estimates will likely arrive in August or September, but could come as early as late May if tax revenues come in low or spending runs high.

Unless Congress raises or suspends the ceiling again, the US would start defaulting, missing payments on obligations like Social Security or military salaries.

Zooming out

Indeed, $36 trillion is a number that’s hard to conceptualize. Put another way, Uncle Sam owes about $106,000 for every single person in the United States. Even when compared to the size of the economy itself, the US national debt burden is looking heavy.

National Debt
Sherwood News

As of 2024, federal debt held by the public — about 80% of the total national debt, with the rest made up of money the government owes itself — stood at 98% of US GDP, per the CBO. The last time it came this close was just after World War II, when it peaked at 106%

And it’s not slowing down. According to CBO’s January projection, the debt level is on track to surpass this WWII peak by 2029 and reach 119% of GDP by 2035, largely driven by ballooning interest payments and rising costs for Social Security and Medicare as the population ages.

With default risk looming and debt nearly matching the size of the economy, the fiscal fight is already underway. House Republicans want to raise the ceiling by $4 trillion through a budget bill that bypasses Democrats; Democrats say they’re open to negotiating — just not at the cost of major social programs. 

In January, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, newly appointed under President Trump, said in his confirmation hearing that the US “is not going to default on its debt” under his watch.

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Jake Lahut

US launches another round of strikes on Iran, the second in 24 hours

In a familiar pattern, the US has begun launching new strikes on Iran Wednesday, on top of retaliatory strikes from Tuesday after Iran struck three ships crossing through the Strait of Hormuz using missiles and drones.

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway," US Central Command wrote in a statement, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, which the US targeted in the earlier strikes, according to WSJ.

This marks the second round of strikes in the last 24 hours, putting the eight-week ceasefire on life support after President Donald Trump said he sees the preliminary deal as "over."

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement that the latest round of strikes mark a "dangerous escalation," and that "our country is stuck in limbo with the very real possibility of further conflict and the prospect of even higher energy prices and increased inflation."

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said the strikes were "in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!"

Explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, which the US targeted in the earlier strikes, according to WSJ.

This marks the second round of strikes in the last 24 hours, putting the eight-week ceasefire on life support after President Donald Trump said he sees the preliminary deal as "over."

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement that the latest round of strikes mark a "dangerous escalation," and that "our country is stuck in limbo with the very real possibility of further conflict and the prospect of even higher energy prices and increased inflation."

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump said the strikes were "in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!"

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WSJ: DOJ approved the Paramount-Warner Bros. deal even as investigators were leaning toward suing to stop it

The Justice Department’s approval of Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of rival Warner Bros. Discovery Friday came as a surprise to the agency’s antitrust investigators, according to Wall Street Journal reporting.

Per the WSJ, a team of lawyers who’d scrutinized the merger were leaning toward recommending a lawsuit to block the deal, but hadn’t gotten to make their final recommendation, before they were told that it had been approved on Friday.

Antitrust investigators typically make a final recommendation to the agency in the review process — and that recommendation is often followed by the agency — but that step was reportedly skipped in this instance. Last month, Semafor reported that senior DOJ antitrust officials appeared likely to approve the Paramount-WBD combo.

The deal could still face antitrust challenges from a collection of states led by California, and EU regulators.

Per the WSJ, a team of lawyers who’d scrutinized the merger were leaning toward recommending a lawsuit to block the deal, but hadn’t gotten to make their final recommendation, before they were told that it had been approved on Friday.

Antitrust investigators typically make a final recommendation to the agency in the review process — and that recommendation is often followed by the agency — but that step was reportedly skipped in this instance. Last month, Semafor reported that senior DOJ antitrust officials appeared likely to approve the Paramount-WBD combo.

The deal could still face antitrust challenges from a collection of states led by California, and EU regulators.

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Jake Lahut

Strait of Hormuz is closed to all oil tankers and commercial ships, Iran military says

In retaliation to US strikes, the Islamic Republic of Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed as of early Thursday morning in Tehran. The attacks from the US were separate from a series of retaliatory drone and missile launches overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

President Donald Trump told Fox News in a phone interview on Wednesday night that “the bombing will stop soon,” but if Iran doesn’t sign the agreement put forward by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, “we’ll bomb the shit out of them tomorrow night.”

When asked whether the ceasefire still stands, Trump described it as “the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world,” per Fox News.

According to Al Jazeerah, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iran’s joint military command specified that any oil tankers or other commercial vessels will be attacked if they attempt to cross the strait.

This is the second day in a row hostilities have resumed to a level not seen since the early April ceasefire was announced.

US CENTCOM announced the series of strikes beginning at 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, which Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth previewed in on-camera remarks, promising to “strike ’em hard tonight” before later saying he would not broadcast whether the military would take any action.

Shortly after the announcement on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessel traffic, Iranian state media reported that two ships attempting to cross were attacked.

This story is developing.

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Jake Lahut

United States and Iran trade retaliatory strikes, escalating war and rattling ceasefire

The war in Iran is heating back up. Overnight, both sides have been trading hostilities in a series of retaliations to other retaliations.

It marks the most robust escalation in combat since the April 8 ceasefire announcement.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures down 0.48% as of 5:30 a.m. ET. At the same time, S&P 500 futures were down nearly 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had slipped 1.18%, as the escalations compounded a broader AI sell-off.

Travel stocks, like United Airlines and Royal Caribbean, which got a boost on Tuesday as oil prices fell, lost some of those gains in premarket trading. Meanwhile, oil giants such as Chevron and Exxon ticked higher and chipmakers such as Arm Holdings and Micron continued to slip.

The escalation ladder began ratcheting back up when Iran shot down an American helicopter with a drone while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, a US official told NBC News. US forces then conducted strikes in Iran’s Qeshm Island, Sirik, Jask, and Bandar Abbas, according to Al Jazeera. In response, Iran attacked a US fleet in Bahrain, Al Jazeera also reported.

“The Iranians are trying to make clear that any attack on them would be responded to, regardless of the size and the scope,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in the US told Al Jazeera. “Now, of course, whether they are seeking to escalate the situation or de-escalate remains to be seen, and it will be very much measured by how they calibrated their response by attacking these US bases.”

The scope of the strikes and counterstrikes broadened out as of early Wednesday morning in Iran. Kuwait activated its air defense systems to intercept strikes, its army announced.

Mohamed Vall, a reporter for Al Jazeera reporting from inside Iran, described “a lot of activity in terms of air defence by the Iranians, and they talked about the downing of a helicopter, an American MQ-9 [drone] over Bushehr. So that gives you an idea about the scope of these attacks and counterattacks, or these retaliations across the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf region tonight.”

Iran’s IRGC also reported targeting a hangar for American F-35 jets in Jordan, Al Jazeera reported.

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New York legislature passes 1-year data center moratorium

The New York state legislature has passed a one-year ban on large data centers in the state.

The bill now heads to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s desk, where it faces an uncertain fate. If Hochul signs the bill, it would become the first such statewide ban to succeed in becoming law.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

That’s far from certain, as Hochul has opposed state-level legislation over data centers. In May, Hochul said, “This is a local decision for municipalities, its land use, which is the purview of local governments. It’s not a statewide approach necessarily, but its something Im looking at intensely.”

In April, Maine Gov. Janet Mills vetoed a similar statewide moratorium on data centers.

Opposition to data centers is growing rapidly across the US. A federal data center moratorium bill was introduced in March, and at least 14 states have proposed pauses on data center construction, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

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