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Jake Lahut

Iran discussing US proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, cease hostilities for 30 days: NYT

Iranian officials told the New York Times Thursday that they are discussing a one-page proposal with the United States to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days and cease hostilities for the same period of time.

The reopening would come in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade and halting all hostilities for that period, according to the Times. The strait would be open to commercial traffic if both sides agree to the deal, according to three Iranian officials who spoke with the NYT.

The US has not yet commented on this specific proposal.

Shortly after news broke of Iranian consideration of the proposal, the US struck oil ports on the island of Qeshm and the coastal city of Bandar Abbas, a US military official told Jennifer Griffin of Fox News. The strikes do not constitute a restarting of the war, according to the official.

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Jake Lahut

Ceasefire holds on Tuesday morning following an “exchange of fire” and shipping clashes

The nearly one-month ceasefire in the Middle East was under threat of being shattered, The New York Times reports, after a series of strikes between the US and Iran escalated on Monday. That fragile ceasefire seems to be holding, however, early on Tuesday.

US warships intercepted Iranian cruise missiles aimed at Navy vessels, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command. The US attacked Iranian speedboats in response, per the NYT, and sank six of them, Cooper reported.

On top of the UAE facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones the same day, hostilities appeared to be opening up on multiple fronts in the region. Al Jazeera reported one of the strikes hit a key oil facility in the emirate of Fujairah, setting it ablaze.

The BBC reported early Tuesday that Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a top negotiator in last month’s talks, had written on X: “We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started.”

Oil prices, by far the strongest and most immediate signal of investor sentiment about the prospect of future clashes, ticked lower on Tuesday morning as reports of attacks diminished and shipping giant Maersk said that one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection.

US warships intercepted Iranian cruise missiles aimed at Navy vessels, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, the leader of US Central Command. The US attacked Iranian speedboats in response, per the NYT, and sank six of them, Cooper reported.

On top of the UAE facing a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones the same day, hostilities appeared to be opening up on multiple fronts in the region. Al Jazeera reported one of the strikes hit a key oil facility in the emirate of Fujairah, setting it ablaze.

The BBC reported early Tuesday that Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a top negotiator in last month’s talks, had written on X: “We know well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we are just getting started.”

Oil prices, by far the strongest and most immediate signal of investor sentiment about the prospect of future clashes, ticked lower on Tuesday morning as reports of attacks diminished and shipping giant Maersk said that one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection.

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Jake Lahut

US on par for $4.50 per gallon in the next week or 2: GasBuddy

Gas prices shooting up across several Midwestern states is putting the national average on track to hit $4.50 per gallon within the next two weeks, according to GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan.

In Michigan, the price went from $3.78 a week ago and $4.18 Tuesday to over $4.25 on Wednesday.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Wisconsin, where gas remained below the national average of $4.22 as of Wednesday afternoon, saw a more modest but similar jump up to $3.96 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

De Haan also mentioned Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in his post on BlueSky as contributing to the surge. Of those states, gas is most expensive in the Land of Lincoln, at $4.52 per gallon.

power

In a 1,100-word statement, United CEO says merger talks with American have ended

United’s pursuit of its rival American Airlines has ended, according to a lengthy statement from United CEO Scott Kirby on Monday.

Per Kirby, American “declined to engage” with his “big, bold vision” of a megamerger that would have controlled more than a third of the US market, instead “publicly closing the door.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

“American’s public comments make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future,” said Kirby, who also believes regulators would have approved the deal.

Kirby’s effort — and sheer word count — in explaining the logic and benefits of the deal could be read as evidence that the executive is still in the market for a big combination. A common theory in the industry has been that the megamerger could have been a means to actually pitch a smaller (but still huge) merger between United and JetBlue.

President Trump last week told CNBC that he didn’t like the United-American idea and would instead “love somebody to buy Spirit.” In American’s earnings call last week, CEO Robert Isom swiftly rejected a United merger, saying the two carriers are “going to be roommates and we’re not getting married.”

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Jon Keegan

In December, the White House announced a new program to let wealthy foreigners get a shortcut to US citizenship — the Trump Gold Card. After paying a $15,000 application fee, passing a vetting process, and ultimately paying a $1 million “contribution,” the applicant gets a card in President Trump’s favorite color that grants the owner US citizenship “in record time.”

So, how many of these rich foreigners have received their shiny ticket to American residency? Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee today that only one of the cards has been issued, but “hundreds” of applications are being reviewed.

In December, Lutnick predicted that the cards could generate up to $1 trillion in revenue.

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Jake Lahut

Who’s next to leave the Trump admin following Chavez-DeRemer’s departure?

After a few abandoned nominations and the occasional lateral demotion during President Donald Trumps first year in office, turnover has accelerated dramatically.

Just in the past month, top officials such as Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer have left their posts.

Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbards 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trumps electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual regime change wars. The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trumps former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

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Following a report from The Atlantic alleging heavy drinking and absenteeism plaguing FBI Director Kash Patel, the odds of his departure from the Trump administration in 2026 shot up sharply, with traders now pricing in an 80% chance he won’t last the year.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is another official who could be on the ropes. Her deputy, Joe Kent, has already resigned over the Iran war. Gabbards 2020 presidential campaign — and appeal in broadening Trumps electorate in 2024 — heavily centered around ending perpetual regime change wars. The White House has indicated to Gabbard that they want her gone before the midterms, but the timing of her departure remains vague, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Sherwood News in recent weeks.

As for who will replace the outgoing members, pay attention to who can be confirmed by the Senate. To replace Bondi, a Trump adviser told Sherwood the most likely replacements are acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trumps former personal attorney, as well as EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

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$1.4B
Rani Molla

In an effort to cement control ahead of SpaceX’s IPO, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk bought $1.4 billion in shares of the rocket company from current and former employees last year, The Information reports, citing the confidential IPO prospectus.

The filing also revealed a moon shot incentive plan for the boss: Musk stands to gain 60 million more shares if SpaceX’s market cap increases to as high as $6.6 trillion and it completes a plan to build AI data centers in space. For its June IPO, the company is targeting a more than $2 trillion valuation.

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Jake Lahut

Lori Chavez-DeRemer out at Department of Labor

Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned as President Donald Trumps labor secretary on Monday, sources familiar with the matter told NOTUS.

Her tenure at the department was mired in scandal, including her husband being barred from headquarters after women employees reported he had touched them inappropriately. Chavez-DeRemer and a top aide reportedly texted women on staff to pay attention to the secretarys husband and her father around the office, according to The New York Times.

The departments inspector general had been investigating those messages and personal requests made of staff members.

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Jon Keegan

Report: Anthropic’s Amodei headed to White House to settle dispute

In February, President Trump called Anthropic “A RADICAL LEFT, WOKE COMPANY,” and said of the company’s Claude AI technology: “We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!”

Now, less than two months later, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is scheduled to meet with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles today, according to a report from Axios.

After being declared a supply chain risk to national security by the Pentagon, and then suing the government to block the action, Anthropic finds itself in a powerful position: it has announced that its new Mythos AI model is capable of planning and executing offensive cyberattacks, and therefore would be shared only with a close group of trusted partners for testing before wider release, leading the US Treasury to try to get its hands on the new model.

The White House meeting is expected to result in some sort of deal that settles the dispute with the company, per the report.

After being declared a supply chain risk to national security by the Pentagon, and then suing the government to block the action, Anthropic finds itself in a powerful position: it has announced that its new Mythos AI model is capable of planning and executing offensive cyberattacks, and therefore would be shared only with a close group of trusted partners for testing before wider release, leading the US Treasury to try to get its hands on the new model.

The White House meeting is expected to result in some sort of deal that settles the dispute with the company, per the report.

power
Jon Keegan

Maine is the first to pass a statewide ban on large data centers

The tide is turning against big AI data centers.

In addition to many cities and towns that have passed outright bans on data centers, lawmakers in at least 11 states have introduced legislation to pause their construction, citing the need to carefully study power and water usage of the facilities.

But Maine just became the first state to successfully pass a ban on large data centers. If Maine Governor Janet Mills signs the bill into law, new data centers that draw more than 20 gigawatts of power would be banned until late 2027, and the state would set up a mechanism to study the impact of data center energy usage.

Last month, a federal bill was introduced to block new data centers until AI regulation has been passed. The issue has been getting more attention in this election year, as voters in data center hubs like Virginia have soured on the facilities.

Look at the crumbling support among Virginians (America's first data center hot spot) for data centers:

But Maine just became the first state to successfully pass a ban on large data centers. If Maine Governor Janet Mills signs the bill into law, new data centers that draw more than 20 gigawatts of power would be banned until late 2027, and the state would set up a mechanism to study the impact of data center energy usage.

Last month, a federal bill was introduced to block new data centers until AI regulation has been passed. The issue has been getting more attention in this election year, as voters in data center hubs like Virginia have soured on the facilities.

Look at the crumbling support among Virginians (America's first data center hot spot) for data centers:

power
Jon Keegan

Trump pulls tech execs even closer, adding Zuckerberg, Huang, Ellison, and others to tech council

President Trump has had a close relationship with America’s biggest tech leaders. They have flown across the world for investment announcements, attended intimate dinners at the White House, donned tuxedos and white ties for royal banquets, and have been known to bring golden gifts to him in the Oval Office.

Today he brings them in even closer. The White House announced that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and close pal and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison will join a new President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, along with 10 other tech leaders including Dell founder Michael Dell and Google cofounder Sergey Brin.

According to the White House, the group will “focus on topics related to the opportunities and challenges that emerging technologies present to the American workforce, and ensuring all Americans thrive in the Golden Age of Innovation.”

The full list of appointees:

Today he brings them in even closer. The White House announced that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and close pal and Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison will join a new President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, along with 10 other tech leaders including Dell founder Michael Dell and Google cofounder Sergey Brin.

According to the White House, the group will “focus on topics related to the opportunities and challenges that emerging technologies present to the American workforce, and ensuring all Americans thrive in the Golden Age of Innovation.”

The full list of appointees:

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show a tight (and tightening) Illinois Democratic Senate primary

It’s primary election time in Illinois, and as voters in the state head to the polls on March 17, there are a few races to watch closely across both parties.

While polls show that Darren Bailey is leading in the Republican race for governor, the primary election for a rare seat in the Democratic Senate to replace Sen. Dick Durbin is proving to be a tight one.

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At the top of the 10-candidate race are Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Robin Kelly. Krishnamoorthi, a lawmaker from Chicago’s 8th Congressional District, was an early front-runner, received funding and support from several Congress members for the seat. Kelly, who represented the South Side’s 2nd Congressional District, has support from the Congressional Black Caucus and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. Meanwhile, Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker, whose administration she used to work for, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

While polls suggested that Krishnamoorthi was favored to win, Stratton has seen a boost and late surge, though Krishnamoorthi still remains close behind. Capitol News Illinois reports that Illinois Future PAC, funded by Pritzker, has spent more than $10 million on ads elevating Stratton. Meanwhile, two PACs affiliated with the crypto industry have attempted to attack Stratton and promote Kelly. Indian American Impact, which endorsed Krishnamoorthi, reportedly employed similar tactics against Stratton.

Political insiders tell Capitol News Illinois the race could go either way, but they still expect Krishnamoorthi to come out on top. Prediction markets currently show that Stratton narrowly leading Krishnamoorthi.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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At the top of the 10-candidate race are Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Robin Kelly. Krishnamoorthi, a lawmaker from Chicago’s 8th Congressional District, was an early front-runner, received funding and support from several Congress members for the seat. Kelly, who represented the South Side’s 2nd Congressional District, has support from the Congressional Black Caucus and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. Meanwhile, Stratton has been endorsed by Gov. JB Pritzker, whose administration she used to work for, as well as Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

While polls suggested that Krishnamoorthi was favored to win, Stratton has seen a boost and late surge, though Krishnamoorthi still remains close behind. Capitol News Illinois reports that Illinois Future PAC, funded by Pritzker, has spent more than $10 million on ads elevating Stratton. Meanwhile, two PACs affiliated with the crypto industry have attempted to attack Stratton and promote Kelly. Indian American Impact, which endorsed Krishnamoorthi, reportedly employed similar tactics against Stratton.

Political insiders tell Capitol News Illinois the race could go either way, but they still expect Krishnamoorthi to come out on top. Prediction markets currently show that Stratton narrowly leading Krishnamoorthi.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

US-POLITICS-CONGRESS-AI

Anthropic sues the US government

In response to the Pentagon’s unprecedented, punitive determination that Anthropic is a national security supply chain risk, the AI startup has sued the US government.

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OpenAI is reportedly working with Pentagon to hash out guardrails amid Anthropic standoff over AI safety

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company is working with the Pentagon to negotiate safety guardrails for AI models used in the battlefield, which comes as one of its top competitors, Anthropic, is at a standoff with the government.

According to a memo obtained by several media outlets, Altman told staff OpenAI believes “that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines.”

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Since then, tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon have reportedly risen as the startup insists on surveillance restrictions. The government’s attack on Venezuela last month that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

Altman’s comments come as the Financial Times reports that executives at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are being pushed by workers to support Anthropic in its dispute with the Pentagon and adopt similar guardrails as the Claude company in any work they undertake with the US military.

According to a memo obtained by several media outlets, Altman told staff OpenAI believes “that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines.”

Anthropic, the company behind the AI chatbot Claude, was one of several firms that received a $200 million contract from the Department of Defense for “agentic workflows.”

Since then, tensions between Anthropic and the Pentagon have reportedly risen as the startup insists on surveillance restrictions. The government’s attack on Venezuela last month that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Anthropic has until 5:01 p.m. ET on Friday to reach a deal with the Pentagon, which has threatened consequences against the company if it doesn’t allow the government unrestricted use.

Altman’s comments come as the Financial Times reports that executives at Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are being pushed by workers to support Anthropic in its dispute with the Pentagon and adopt similar guardrails as the Claude company in any work they undertake with the US military.

power
Jon Keegan

Report: Anthropic CEO Amodei meeting with Hegseth at the Pentagon as tensions mount

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been summoned to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon on Tuesday, according to a report from Axios. Tensions are running high between the Trump administration and Anthropic, as the startup’s surveillance restrictions on the use of its AI are reportedly causing outrage within the Pentagon.

Last month’s attack on Venezuela that led to the capture of Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Per the report, the Pentagon is considering effectively blacklisting Anthropic’s AI from government work if it doesn’t capitulate to the administration’s terms.

Antagonizing the Trump administration could cause Anthropic to face potential regulatory hurdles as it races toward an IPO this year. The company recently hired former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddel to its board, who formerly served as deputy White House chief of staff in the first Trump administration.

Last month’s attack on Venezuela that led to the capture of Maduro reportedly involved the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI models for planning, which caused the startup to push back on the alleged violation of its terms of use.

Per the report, the Pentagon is considering effectively blacklisting Anthropic’s AI from government work if it doesn’t capitulate to the administration’s terms.

Antagonizing the Trump administration could cause Anthropic to face potential regulatory hurdles as it races toward an IPO this year. The company recently hired former Microsoft CFO Chris Liddel to its board, who formerly served as deputy White House chief of staff in the first Trump administration.

power
Jon Keegan

Anthropic donates $20 million to pro-AI regulation PAC

The war to build a better AI model may be mostly happening in Silicon Valley, but now another important front has opened: Washington, DC.

Anthropic announced a $20 million donation to Public First Action, a new super PAC that advocates for AI policies and regulations that prioritize public safety. The PAC describes itself as “a counterforce that will defend the public interest against those who aim to buy their way out of sensible rule-making.”

The move is seen as a counter to OpenAI’s growing investments in PACs that argue for less AI regulation.

OpenAI recently donated to Leading the Future PAC, which has received over $50 million from the family of OpenAI president and cofounder Greg Brockman, and the VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. The PAC says it is focused on “identifying, maintaining, and growing pro-AI candidates in order to support an AI innovation policy agenda at the state and federal level.”

OpenAI’s Brockman and his wife, Anna, recently donated a total of $25 million to the pro-Trump MAGA, INC. PAC.

OpenAI recently donated to Leading the Future PAC, which has received over $50 million from the family of OpenAI president and cofounder Greg Brockman, and the VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. The PAC says it is focused on “identifying, maintaining, and growing pro-AI candidates in order to support an AI innovation policy agenda at the state and federal level.”

OpenAI’s Brockman and his wife, Anna, recently donated a total of $25 million to the pro-Trump MAGA, INC. PAC.