The housing cooldown… The days of obsessive Zillow-scrolling and cheap mortgages are likely over. Home-buying demand is finally cooling as mortgage rates spike to the highest levels since ’09. Last month, mortgage applications fell to a 22-year low, while brokers Redfin and Compass had mass layoffs. Average mortgage payments are now 31% higher than rent — which could speed the cooldown. As rates rise, fewer people will be eligible/willing to take out loans. Yet home prices won’t cool until supply improves, and that could take years. In May, the median existing-home price topped $400K for the first time as inventory remained brutally low.
Retail’s inventory glut… After years of struggling to get products on shelves, big retailers now have too much stuff. Walmart said nearly a quarter of its inventory is “unwanted” as shipments meant for stay-at-home szn (think: puzzles, throw pillows) arrive months too late. Ditto for teen faves like Abercrombie and American Eagle, which are sitting on 40%+ more inventory than a year ago. Now the Amazon and Target are having huge sales events to shed extra merch. The discounts could lure stimmy-less shoppers to stores and help cool inflation.
Knockoff economy… In Russia, CoolCola’s the new Coca-Cola. Imitation brands are sprouting up after Western big shots like Nike and Coke left because of #sanctions. Despite the corporate exodus, Russia’s economy has been surprisingly resilient: the ruble has rebounded to seven-year highs and shelves are still stocked thanks to more domestic production. Former McDonald’s locations in the country recently reopened as rebranded Russian versions, with 98% local ingredients (and the same ketchup packets).