Gotta get down on Black Friday… Retailers started sales earlier than ever this year to stoke shoppers’ holiday spirits. Now a flurry of earnings could hint at whether the discount deluge is working. Walmart, Williams-Sonoma, and TJMaxx parent TJX shared strong Q3 sales #s last week, with Walmart boosting its annual guidance after it saw high spending from shoppers earning $100K+. But not everyone’s on the nice list: Target trimmed its EOY expectations after sluggish Q3 sales, citing weak discretionary spending. Tomorrow, Best Buy’s results should show whether Target’s alone in missing the mark.
Parade: Macy’s and Nordstrom, both set to report this week, earlier this year predicted sagging sales and tepid growth.
Zillennial: How much shoppers shelled out for leather “skorts” at Abercrombie and URBN, which both report tomorrow, could complete the spending picture.
Santa’s mixed bag… Americans’ nonessential splurging plans (air fryers, not eggs) climbed for the four months through September, but retail sales have stayed relatively constrained as consumers continued to feel inflation’s squeeze. Overall growth slowed last month, and while some of the categories that retailers count on for holiday sales popped (electronics, appliances) others shrank (clothing). Analysts expect spending this holiday season to increase at its slowest pace in six years as folks get pickier with their pocketbooks and wealthier shoppers look downmarket.
The spending pie has shifted… Retailers with a slightly more upscale sheen (imagine: Target pronounced “Tarjay”) risk losing market share to known discount dealers Walmart and Costco. Meanwhile, ultracheap brands like Shein and Temu have thrived. This year, Amazon’s new everything-$20-or-less storefront will compete for room under the tree.