Prediction markets flip toward spot ether ETF approvals as the SEC’s deadline looms

Wanna bet… Crypto-prediction markets strapped in for a roller coaster ride this week. On Polymarket the odds that the SEC will approve a spot ethereum ETF this month soared earlier this week to nearly 75%, up from 10% on Monday. Those betting their crypto on the decentralized platform won’t have to hold their breath: the SEC is facing two deadlines — one today and one tomorrow — to either approve or deny spot ether ETF applications from VanEck and Ark Invest/21Shares.

• Analy$ts: The odds about-face followed reports that the regulator had asked asset managers to update official ETF-related filings. Analysts saw this as a bullish sign.

• Into the ether: The price of ethereum spiked nearly 20% Monday on the news, with one analyst predicting spot ether ETFs could pull in up to $45B in the first year.

• Round two: The SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs in January. The funds pulled in billions in investments and helped push the price of BTC to an all-time high of $73K+.

• Bit different: Some experts say that ethereum’s proof-of-stake nature might be a sticking point for regulators (bitcoin uses proof of work).

Feelin’ on the spot… If the SEC does approve spot ether ETFs, analysts say it’d represent a 180 for the crypto-skeptical regulator. Shifting political winds may’ve played a role. Just yesterday the House passed an industry-supported bill that would create a framework for digital assets. And while President Biden said he opposed the bill, he didn’t threaten a veto should it reach his desk. Plus, last week the Senate passed a pro-crypto measure viewed as a rebuke to the SEC’s approach to crypto regs.