🏡 *When your neighbor's home improvements have you wondering if they're about to sell…*

A major update, dubbed the “[Shanghai hard fork](https://www.barrons.com/articles/ethereum-price-crypto-market-coinbase-stock-51675789767),” is said to be coming to __ethereum__ next month. When completed, validators — people who’ve locked up ether as collateral in a process called "[staking](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1wtJg97QxjQGWOy95mSzca/articles/4PkMBBDA5ADxTIJm447Hdh/)" — will finally be able to sell their staked ETH. Yesterday developers successfully tested withdrawing staked ether ahead of the fork. There are about 16M staked ether worth $26B. Some investors worry the fork could spark a mass sale.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: "Shanghai hard fork"

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__Sail away…__ to near-record bookings. __[Royal Caribbean's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RCL/)__ stock jetted up 7% yesterday after the cruise conglomerate [reported](https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-beats-earnings-strong-bookings-51675775715) expectation-beating #s. The boaty biz, which also operates Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises, still *lost* $500M — but that was less than half of its year-ago loss. Analysts say strong demand combined with higher ticket prices could make for smoother financial sailing. Last quarter, booking volumes blew prepandemic bookings out of the water. Royal’s not the only one working on a cruise comeback:

- __Come one, come all:__ __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL/)__ execs said they expect first-quarter bookings to hit 90% of 2019 levels, and this year the stock is up about 50%. 
- __Not-so-rough waters:__ __[Norwegian Cruise Line](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NCLH/)__ said last year’s bookings matched prepandemic levels (and at record prices). This year its stock is up 47%. 

__Round trips and road trips…__ It’s not just Cruise companies getting a consumer-powered boost. Last month, __[American Express'](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AXP/)__ CFO said that spending on experiential splurges like travel and entertainment is "off the charts." And airlines like __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL/)__ and __[United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL/)__ reported expectation-beating profits last quarter as demand stayed strong despite sky-high fares. Meanwhile, __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS/)__ (which reports earnings today) is expected to show strong revenue gains from its theme parks. 

Break out the piña coladas (MyLoupe/Getty Images)

POSH

__YOLO spending's becoming a lifestyle…__ because the pandemic elevated the value of real experiences. Despite historically high inflation and historically low consumer sentiment, people are still “[revenge spending](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/537dMBHls4pXZImAT8l4a5/articles/79VCq2iiUC01NTlHhU61PT/)” on socially good times like cruises, flights, and amusement parks. As the cruise industry's "wave season" heats up (picture: promos offered from January to March), we'll see whether YOLO spending continues to maintain its grip on many Americans’ pocketbooks. 

Royal Caribbean's blowout bookings show YOLO spending charging full steam ahead

__Checking the Powell-meter…__ When J. Powell speaks, investors listen. Yesterday the Fed chair sat down for a midday Q&A sesh in DC. It wasn’t as big a moment as a Fed meeting, but after last week’s killer jobs report, investors were eager for any clues about a policy shift — especially after Atlanta’s Fed chief [said](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/fed-s-bostic-says-higher-peak-rate-on-table-after-jobs-blowout?srnd=premium) that a higher peak rate was on the table. 

- __Thing Powell said that the market liked:__ J-Pow acknowledged that “disinflation has begun” in the goods sector, which makes up a quarter of the US economy. 
- __What the market *didn’t* like:__ If the labor market continues strengthening and inflation climbs further, Powell said the Fed might need to make higher-than-expected hikes. 
- __Bike hikes:__ When asked how he de-stresses, Powell said, “I like to ride my bike.” 

__Climbing up that rate hill…__ Mixed economic data, coupled with Fed comments, has been giving the market whiplash. Stocks popped last week after J-Pow acknowledged that inflation is cooling at the Fed’s meeting (the first time he mentioned “disinflationary” trends). But on Friday stocks fell after news that the US had added a shockingly strong 517K jobs last month while unemployment fell to 3.4% — its lowest level in 53 years. When the Fed meets in March, it’ll have yet another month of jobs and inflation data to inform its next hike decision.

__When optimism’s high, disappointment’s likely…__ Investors are obsessed with the Fed because rising rates tend to lower stock prices, discourage spending, and cool economic growth (aka: the Fed’s goal). The market may have gotten ahead of itself, but now it’s pricing in higher expectations of Fed tightening. Yesterday Powell said that reaching acceptable inflation levels is going to take a while: “My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year, but next year to get down close to 2%.”

J. Powell (gently) reins in expectations after stocks popped on “disinflation” optimism

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🚢 Cruise companies’ YOLO wave

Heard on the Block: "Shanghai hard fork"

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