- __[Nev](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6fyXoeZno4t269xTNw1jzf/articles/5f8KqZiY4LTXCBfwyLanAT/):__ __[Tesla’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ quarterly deliveries fell for the first time in years as it dealt with global production woes and mounting competition from Chinese “new energy vehicle” companies like Buffett-backed BYD.
- __[Grub](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/UxtWGudOOkV9B9gUKjB19/articles/1SrYK6oDA7ev3IgLt9Gsaq/):__ __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ giving Prime members a year of Grubhub+ (think: free delivery, discounts) to help justify its recent 17% Prime price hike. It’s part of a "subscription squared” strategy to keep subs loyal. 
- __[Thieve](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3pu2eqXGgxUzOO2TUmyO9U/articles/XJSmBGfRmia6WTOddX2TI/):__ Hackers stole $9M from DeFi protocol __Crema Finance__ but returned $8M, which Crema let them keep as a "white-hat bounty” reward. “Hack to return” crimes are rising as crypto laundering gets harder.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights…

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Tom Jones

Culture

__At least AriZona cans still cost 99 cents...__ While the iced tea has been [sold](https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/06/09/arizona-iced-tea-beverages-price-inflation-economy-qmb-vpx.cnnbusiness) for $0.99 for [three decades](https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/06/09/arizona-iced-tea-beverages-price-inflation-economy-qmb-vpx.cnnbusiness), the global economy has been steeped in #flation. We'll see the latest when June's US consumer price data comes out Wednesday. May’s wasn’t pretty: prices were up 8.6% from last year. For context, annual US inflation [averaged](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/annual-inflation-hit-40-year-high-in-may.aspx) less than 2% from 2010 to 2019.

- __’Flation = a global fixation.__ In May, South Korea's inflation [hit](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Inflation/South-Korea-inflation-hit-nearly-24-year-high-in-June#:~:text=Statistics%20Korea%20said%20the%20consumer,%25%20and%20restaurants%20climbing%208%25.) a 24-year high, the UK's [surged](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-inflation-hits-91-may-2022-06-22/) to a 40-year high, and Turkey had [73%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/turkeys-inflation-soars-to-73percent-as-food-and-energy-costs-skyrocket.html) inflation (not a typo).

__The balloon might be shrinking...__ Central banks have been raising interest rates to depress prices. Last week, the Fed indicated it’ll need to speed up rate hikes if the inflation outlook worsens. But as recession fears grow, we're seeing signs prices could cool:

- __Oil's dropping:__ This is a biggie, since oil powers everything from your deliveries to your grocery store's fridge bill. Oil had its steepest one-day drop since March last week, and US gas prices dropped 21 days in a row — the longest down-streak in over two years.
- __Ditto raw materials:__ Prices of commodities like cotton, lumber, and copper — used in everything from motors to homes and jewelry — have plunged since May.
- __Inventory's growing:__ From __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ to __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__, large retailers are drowning in inventory — and trying to sell it at a discount. Price-slashing could ease ’flation.
- __Tariffs could be cut:__ The US imports a lot from China (think: gadgets, clothes, metals). Now President Biden may ease some of the tariffs boosting costs on $300B worth of Chinese goods.

Who’s popping the inflation balloon? (PM Images/Getty Images)

Unflate

__Anti-’flation may be more of a whimper…__ than a *whoosh*. We’re starting to see pinholes in the inflation balloon. One example: consumer spending [fell](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/retail-sales-may-2022-unexpected-0point3percent-decline-hammered-by-inflation.html) in May as higher rates and prices strained savings. But services inflation (like wages and labor) is still rising [sharply](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-service-sector-inflation-threatens-commodity-prices-2022-07-07/). Not great for prices, since services make up 60% of US consumer spending. But now even the labor market is slowly cooling — bad for the economy, but potentially good for prices.

From falling oil prices to rising inventory, we’re seeing signs that the inflation balloon might be deflating (slowly)

__Blockchange...__ Crypto's revolutionary ambitions are being questioned. Activists started [talking](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/style/abortion-crypto-donations.html) about using decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to financially support people seeking abortions after the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade leaked in May. Two months later, a __CowgirlDAO__ has raised $40K+ and __ChoiceDAO's__ aiming to raise $1M. But some crypto fans say this has been a [missed opportunity](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/05/crypto-fundraising-after-end-of-roe-tepid-so-far/) to fulfill blockchain tech's anti-[censorship](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3JA1v5bdIfQh45Djc5Yp0M/) promises. 

__Midsummer splurge…__ Bonus season is making a bonus appearance as some employers dish out extra dollars to retain workers. Last week, __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__ [doled](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/peloton-sweetens-employee-pay-incentives-as-it-fights-to-boost-morale.html) out one-time bonuses. Last month, Exxon's US employees got a bonus payout worth 3% of their salaries. And in May, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ announced plans to nearly [double](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/microsoft-to-nearly-double-salary-budgets-expand-stock-compensation.aspx#:~:text=Microsoft%20Corp.%20said%20it%20plans,help%20people%20cope%20with%20inflation.) its budget for raises. Since nearly [three-fourths](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/more-pay-raises-are-on-the-way-for-many-workers-this-year.html) of workers say their salary won’t keep up with inflation, a bonus may not be enough to retain talent. Now a third of employers are [considering](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bosses-offer-midyear-raises-to-retain-employees-as-inflation-takes-toll-11657013401) midyear raises.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching…

__At least the Biscoff cookies are free…__ __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ drops earnings on Wednesday, at a time when “upsell” revenue has [surged](https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlines-upsell-amenities-revenue-51656705554) to make up 15% of sales for airlines (think: extra legroom, early boarding, $5 headphones). Delta lost $780M last quarter, but was profitable in March as pricey airfares and packed flights offset fuel costs. Still, Delta and others are struggling to meet hot summer demand (which is back around pre-pandemic levels) as labor shortages persist. We’ll see whether [thousands](https://www.cbs46.com/2022/06/17/delta-among-us-airlines-with-highest-number-weekend-delays-cancellations/) of delays and cancellations hit Delta’s earnings. 

__Watching that credit-card APR rise like...__ that’s a lot of interest. All eyes are on big-bank earnings this week, with __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__, __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC)__, __[BlackRock](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BLK)__, __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, and __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocksJPM)__ dropping #s. Big-bank profits fell in the first quarter, and a looming econ downturn could add to their troubles. Think: less revenue from deal-making, trading, and loans (mortgage lending has dropped as rates rise). JPMorgan cut [hundreds](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/investing/jpmorgan-layoffs-mortgages/index.html) of employees in June, and more Wall Street layoffs are likely. Analysts expect earnings to come in slightly lower than initially forecast.

Events

Coming up this week…

From falling oil prices to rising inventory, we’re seeing signs that inflation could cool

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Joey Chestnut won his 15th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest by downing 63 wieners (and buns) in 10 minutes

⬇️ Anti-’flation signals

Last week's highlights…

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