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Move over, Tesla: Rivian and Lucid deliver their first EVs, but the challenge is scaling

Snacks / Monday, November 08, 2021
Throwing shade at the Cybertruck [Mlenny/E+ via Getty Images]
Throwing shade at the Cybertruck [Mlenny/E+ via Getty Images]

Elon's got company(s)... Tesla no longer has its own lane. American EV startups Rivian and Lucid have delivered their first models to customers' driveways. Rivian is the Amazon- and Ford-backed e-truck company that plans to go public on Wednesday. It's targeting a $60B IPO valuation — just $8B shy of Ford's market cap, though Rivian had zero sales in the first half of 2021. Lucid makes luxury EV sedans and went public in July.

  • Rivian's R1T has a range of 314 miles/charge and starts at $68K — a longer range, but pricier than most upcoming e-trucks. It's the first e-truck to reach consumers (sorry, Cybertruck) and has built-in drink coolers.
  • Lucid's Air sedan has a range of up to 520 miles/charge, the longest of any EV sold in the US (by 100+ miles). The Air starts at $77.4K, but its first orders cost ~$170K — more than any Tesla.

Channeling Musk energy... Like Tesla, both Rivian and Lucid plan to sell directly to consumers (no OG dealers). Tesla's initial strategy was entering at the premium end of the market, then lowering costs as it scaled. Rivian and Lucid will likely take a similar approach. Also like Tesla: Rivian plans to build a charging network for owners, which is key to addressing #RangeAnxiety. There’s a reason newcomers are pulling from Tesla’s playbook:

  • Tesla's market cap crossed $1T last month, and it's now worth $1.2T — more than the market cap of one Toyota, five GMs, and six Fords combined.
  • US EV sales soared 57% in September from last year, and the Biden admin wants to extend the $7.5K EV tax credit and build more public charging stations.

Doing it once doesn't guarantee doing it big... Rivian and Lucid have delivered their EVs. Their bigger challenge now is to scale. To catch up, new entrants have to master mass production and survive steep losses. Tesla delivered a record 240K cars last quarter, and made up nearly 80% of EVs sold in the US last year. Meanwhile, Lucid plans to produce 20K cars next year. But the biggest challenge for EV-only companies like Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla could be OG carmakers: GM, Volkswagen, and Ford are all mass-producing accessible models.

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