💸 Chase’s big recovery bet

Sapphire Reserve, reloaded... In March 2020, we were told to pack up our workstations. The next month, 14.5M Americans lost their jobs, driving up the unemployment rate to ~15%. The US suffered its largest quarterly GDP drop ever. Nearly two years later, America's largest bank is predicting that 2022 will be the year things return to normal. JPMorgan Chase’s predictions:

• "2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions." Mic. Drop.
• Chase believes the world will achieve population immunity with the help of new therapeutics, expected to be broadly available next year.
• Bill Gates also believes the critical phase of the pandemic will end in ’22.

Recovery check-in... Thanks to speedy vaccine development, the pandemic is waning. Still, only 57% of the world's population has received a shot, and just 7.5% of Africa's population is fully vaxxed. Global Covid deaths this year surpassed 2020's total toll by June. And while Omicron cases have been milder than Delta so far, there's a lot we don't know.

• GDP: By the end of 2022, 66 out of 77 key economies representing 96% of global GDP are expected to be at or above pre-pandemic output.
• Global unemployment is projected to stay slightly above pre-Covid levels next year. US unemployment fell to 4.2% in November, up less than 1 percentage point from pre-pandemic.
• Stocks have rebounded to records after their pandemic plunge in March 2020, with the S&P 500 index more than doubling since. Chase projects continued but slower growth next year.
• Inflation has risen worldwide, but the US had one of the largest increases, with consumer prices hitting a 30-year high. The global supply-chain crisis could last into 2023.

Peppermint mocha… with an extra shot of organized labor. Starbucks workers at a store near Buffalo, New York, voted yesterday to form the first union at a company-owned Starbucks in the coffee chain’s 50-year history. Two other Buffalo-area Starbucks also had union votes yesterday; one voted against unionizing, and the other will have a recount.

• Buffalo baristas began petitioning for a union in August to demand better wages. Starbucks, whose stock is having its worst year since 2017, opposed the effort.
• The coffee colossus sent founder and former CEO Howard Schulz to Buffalo to persuade workers not to strike, and unsuccessfully asked labor officials to delay the vote.
• The final tally: 19 workers said yes and eight voted no. Union members said they planned to start negotiating a new contract with Starbucks immediately.

Hotter than PSLs… The US unionization rate peaked — at 35% — in the mid-1950s, but experienced a decades-long decline as unions fell out of favor. Now unions are picking up steam again: In this year’s tight labor market, workers started demanding higher wages and stronger benefits. As a result, the popularity of unions jumped to its highest level since 1965.

• About 40 union groups from companies like Deere, Mondelez, and Kellogg have gone on strike since August — twice as many as in the same period last year.
• Amazon warehouse workers voted against unionization in April, but will soon revote after federal labor officials said Amazon violated labor law.

• Delay: American Airlines said it would cut flights to places like Scotland and Hong Kong this summer because the Boeing planes it ordered are delayed amid supply-chain problems.
• Fine: Italian antitrust regulators fined Amazon $1.3B for abusing its market dominance, adding to the ecommerce giant's growing list of global lawsuits.
• Teen: The FDA cleared Pfizer and BioNTech’s booster shot for use in 16- and 17-year-olds, as the Omicron variant rapidly spreads worldwide.
• Sold: Top corporate execs including Elon Musk are selling off their shares at historic levels as stock prices boom and tax-law changes loom.
• Blurry: Lululemon’s sales jumped an expectation-beating 30% from last year because stretchy is still trendy, but shares dipped after it cut sales forecasts for its workout Mirror.
• Bone: Chewy shares fell 8% after the online pet-supply deliverer unboxed a wider-than-expected loss, though the puppy-palooza continued.

• November Consumer Price Index
• Earnings expected from: Johnson Outdoors

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Starbucks, Amazon, and Pfizer

ID: 1953754