You’re loyal to George Costanza — Not Netflix
Hey Snackers,
Some Adele with that Merlot? Or more of an Ed Sheeran Chardonnay kinda night? Spotify is now pairing songs with wines.
Oil's biggest one-day price-spike ever messed with markets on Monday, because economies still run on regular unleaded. We got more for you on that below.
A secretive Amazon team reportedly tweaked its core algorithm (and violated Amazon's #1 principle)
The greatest digital real estate on Earth... is Amazon's search results. And a WSJ investigation alleges that Amazon tweaked its core search algorithm last year to boost sales of its own products. These stats about Amazon's subtle-yet-powerful search feature humbled our souls and scream the key context:
- Nearly half of all online purchases in the US are on Amazon.
- 66% of all purchases on Amazon are from items in the 1st page of Amazon search results.
- 20% of Amazon purchases are whatever was #1 in the search results.
Does the name “A9” mean anything to you?... Stands for "Algorithm" (and there are "9" letters in it). A9 is the Amazon division responsible for Amazon Search — and because that valuable search tool is ripe for corruption, Amazon keeps the team away from the Seattle HQ in Silicon Valley as a subsidiary company with a separate CEO. Here's what the WSJ discovered:
- A9's core mission is to "get the best results for our users."
- But Amazon's retail arm back home in Seattle wanted to push more profitable products to the top of search results — not necessarily the best products for customers.
- So they pressured A9 to tweak the algorithm to increase sales of its own products and 3rd party ones it can make more money off.
This breaks Amazon's core rule: "Customer Obsession"... And could be unlawful since Amazon should be an unbiased marketplace, not a retailer pushing its own brands. But Amazon may have ignored its own laws: Its 14 leadership principles — this story violates the very first one. If Amazon tweaks search results to benefit Amazon, it's not benefiting you and us as customers.
Fun SnackFact: After the WSJ published the report, the A9 website was taken down. Awkward.
Netflix splurges on Seinfeld to survive the streaming wars
But are you master of your domain?... Netflix is. The streamer just treated itself to Seinfeld. All of it — for more than $500M. Netflix rounded up the crew from Tom's Restaurant (close-talkers included) because it needs to replace its top shows that are getting yanked by their owners amid these streaming wars.
- The Office (#1 Netflix show): Gone in 2020 — NBC is taking it back to include in its own yet-to-be-named streaming service.
- Friends (#2): Gone in 2021 — AT&T is taking it back and adding it to HBO Max.
- All Disney movies: Gone by November — Disney is launching competitor Disney+.
- FYI: Seinfeld hits Netflix in 2021 (not that there's anything wrong with that) and remains on Hulu (probably with commercials) until then.
'No streaming for you, Sony'... The key here isn't how much Netflix paid (it was more than Friends or The Office recently went for), it's who sold it: Sony. The only companies willing to work with Netflix are the ones without their own streaming platforms. Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer aren't too worried — their series has made over $3B since the finale episode.
You're loyal to George Costanza — not Netflix... Streamers are discovering that cord-cutters care most about the shows they'll watch over and over again — aka sitcoms. Netflix lost US subscribers last quarter because its news shows didn't land. Now it's searching for a "loyalty leader" — a show that keeps you hooked to your subscription. It's betting Seinfeld will, yada yada yada, maintain your subscription.
Oil surges after attacks on Saudi Arabia — here's our perspective on the real market risk
Headlines with the word "missile" are taken seriously... Investors pumped up the price of an oil barrel by the most ever in a single day (about 15%) on Monday — a weekend drone strike had knocked off 1/2 of Saudi Arabia's oil production. Rebels in Yemen took credit for the violence, but American officials believe Iran was really behind the moves.
The global economy = oil-thangry (thirsty + angry)... and there was suddenly less oil. That scarcity caused a rapid snatching up of oil contracts which drove up oil prices. We don't think this will last long — here's why:
- The shortage isn't huge: 6% of the world's oil supply was cut off by the attacks, aka 5.9M barrels per day. That means 94% of oil is still pumping.
- The shortage will only last days/weeks (not months): The Saudis sent a SWAT team of workers to get most production back online in days, with 100% coming within weeks.
- We've got a spare tank: America has 600M barrels of emergency oil. And we're not even planning to tap them unless more attacks/shortages occur.
Markets can handle this – but they can't handle a war... Although Saudi Arabia and Iran are the direct foes, the US (#1) backs Saudi Arabia (#2) and Russia (#3) backs Iran (#7). Those make up 4 of the top 7 oil-producing countries of the world. And President Trump's tweet that the US is "locked and loaded" already boosted American defense stocks.
What else we’re Snackin’
- TBD: WeWork's IPO reportedly getting delayed (one of its top investors wants to shelve the whole thing)
- anti-iPhone: Google's new Pixel phone will be unveiled on October 15th
- 2020: Snapchat just released a full library of all the political ads in the app to try to avoid another 2016-Russia-intervention issue
- Picket: GM's first worker strike in a decade? It'll cost the car company $90M a day
- White flag: Purdue Pharma is filing for bankruptcy as part of its settlement with the states for its roll dishing out opioids