Sherwood
Monday Feb.27, 2023

👗 Shein’s IPO runway

Hit refresh for a Gen Z style overload (Jakub Porzycki//Getty Images)
Hit refresh for a Gen Z style overload (Jakub Porzycki//Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Last week a hot new language model entered the AI villa. Meet LLaMA (🦙), Meta’s new large language model. LLaMA joins Sydney (Microsoft’s ChatGPT-fueled Bing) and Google’s Bard in the competition to win the public’s love on AI island.

Stocks fell on Friday and tumbled for the week after news that one of the Fed’s key inflation gauges rose more than expected in January, stoking investors' (already hot) rate-hike worries.

OOTD

Shein is stitching up a blockbuster IPO, but a fast-fashion slowdown could unravel the plan

Insta-worthy fit… for less than $10. After years of explosive growth, ultra-fast-fashion titan Shein is laying out lofty sales goals in preparation for a potential IPO this year. Shein became America’s largest fast-fashion brand thanks to its online offering of endless trendy clothes at super-low prices (think: 6K new styles listed each day). Now Shein could become the largest Chinese company ever to list in the US — its #1 market.

  • New fit: In an investor presentation last week, Shein said it was aiming to double its annual sales to nearly $60B by 2025. FYI: that’s more than H&M and Zara’s yearly sales combined.
  • Loose thread: Analysts say Shein’s goal could be a stretch, since it would need to get more repeat customers and sell pricier pieces (think: $30 blouse vs. $3 tank).

From A to Gen Z… Shein became a go-to for young adults thanks to viral TikTok hauls and influencer endorsements. During the pandemic, its valuation soared from $10B to $100B in two years (but recently dropped to $65B). The novelty of endless cheap clothing scrolling is starting to wear off. Shein’s sales have fallen for six out of the past seven months, and last year it posted its first annual loss since the pandemic.

  • Interest down: Online searches for Shein and other fast-fashion faves like Pretty Little Thing and Fashion Nova have tumbled since last fall.
  • Competition up: This month Shein’s China-owned rival, Temu, became the most downloaded app in the US (topping Walmart and Amazon) after its Super Bowl ad.

Cheap is easy to sell, but easier to unravel… Gen Z is more open to embracing new brands than other generations, but keeping its attention is hard. Plus, young shoppers are increasingly concerned about the environmental effects of their purchases. That could be bad news for unsustainable fast-fashion brands like Shein, which has been in hot water for contributing to millions of tons of carbon emissions — and has received scrutiny for labor-law violations.

Zoom out

Stories we’re watching

Thursday = the new Friday... The four-day workweek is #trending after positive results from one of the largest trials ever conducted of the concept. The vast majority of companies in the six-month UK study said they’d stick with four-day weeks after seeing major reductions in turnover, happier employees, and mostly steady productivity. Employers in the US, Canada, Australia, Brazil, and other countries are also testing it out. Most companies that have experimented with short weeks are small, but four-day work could become a hot new perk.

SCOTUS on YouTube… The Supreme Court heard arguments in a case against Google that could decide if tech companies should be liable for content their algos promote. The plaintiffs are the family of Nohemi Gonzalez, an American college student who was killed in a 2015 ISIS attack in Paris. They say YouTube’s recommendations violated anti-terrorism law by helping radicalize viewers. Social giants are protected from being liable for users' posts thanks to Section 230. But now the question of content promotion could put some protections in jeopardy.

Events

Coming up this week

Missed the bull’s-eye?… Target is expected to report lower sales and profits tomorrow. Walmart unboxed a strong holiday quarter last week as discount seekers flocked to its aisles for essentials like food (groceries = over half of Walmart’s sales). But America’s largest retailer warned that customers are cutting back on higher-margin discretionary items (think: clothes, decor, TVs). That’s even worse news for Target, since discretionary goods make up 60% of its sales. Analysts expect Target’s profit will have dropped by more than half.

The doctor will FaceTime you now… Telemedicine companies like Teledoc, which reported last week, rode the lockdown wave to ballooning growth. But now many IRL doc offices are open and the US government’s Covid emergency declaration is on track to end in May (think: a possible end to video-call Adderall prescriptions). And the shine may be coming off telemedicine's apple. If Teledoc's disappointing forecast is any indication, Hims & Hers Health and GoodRx, which report this week, may have reason to call in sick.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

  • COD: Xbox-maker Microsoft struck deals to share some of its top games with rivals Nintendo and Nvidia to win support for its $69B acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
  • Checkmeta: Meta’s following Twitter with a blue-check subscription as social giants scramble for non-ad revenue. “Meta Verified,” which launched last week, offers Insta and FB app users blue badges for $15/month.
  • Scooted: Electric-scooter startups like Bird and Helbiz have been deeply unprofitable, but Lime said it just became the first micro-mobility company to notch a profitable year thanks to its DIY approach.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Vows: The post-lockdown wedding boom is cooling after couples played pandemic catch-up, but it’s still getting pricier to seal the “I do” deal. The average cost of a wedding this year is expected to be $29K.
  • Cracked: There’s a reason why egg prices are exorbitant, and it’s not just plain old inflation: over the past year, the avian flu has killed tens of millions of US chickens in the deadliest outbreak on record.
  • Right: The US Copyright Office canceled copyright protections for AI-generated images used in a graphic novel. It’s one of the first US agencies to take an IP stance on AI content, and could set a precedent.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Hims & Hers Health, Fisker, Workday, LendingTree, Zoom, Vimeo, Berkshire Hathaway, and FuboTV
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Eventbrite, Warby Parker, AMC Entertainment, Duolingo, Rivian, HP, JM Smucker, Ross, Target, Urban Outfitters, Cracker Barrel, Virgin Galactic, SeaWorld, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, and BlackRock
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Kohl’s, Jack In The Box, Lowe’s, Wendy’s, Salesforce, Dollar Tree, Okta, and Office Depot
  • Thursday: Earnings expected from AB InBev, Victoria’s Secret, Best Buy, Costco, Six Flags, Dell, Nordstrom, Smith & Wesson, TD Bank, Kroger, Hormel, Utz Brands, Broadcom, and Macy’s
  • Friday: Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks

Authors of this Snacks own shares: of AB InBev, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Walmart

ID: 2759375

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