Sherwood
Monday Aug.22, 2022

🌎 Climate money

A climate whirlwind (Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images)
A climate whirlwind (Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Time for a temp check: in light of the huge climate bill signed last week, we’re taking a step back to zero in on the financial and social implications of the climate crisis and the business trends shaping its future, from corporate initiatives to crypto mining.

The major US indexes closed down last week as investors reconsidered the possibility of a big September Fed interest-rate hike (consensus: likely). Meanwhile, mortgage lenders are starting to go out of business — but experts don't expect a 2008-style disaster.

Temp Check

The US is making its biggest climate investment ever, but the climate crisis could be much costlier

Build back greener… Last week President Biden signed a historic climate and social spending bill into law (confusingly dubbed: “the Inflation Reduction Act”). The $433B package is expected to help the US curb emissions by 40% by 2030, closer in line with the 50% goal Biden had set in the Paris Agreement.

  • Big deal: The landmark legislation includes nearly $400B in climate spending — less than Biden’s original agenda, but still the largest climate investment in US history. Included: $60B for clean sources and storage (think: wind turbines, EV factories) and tax credits to help consumers lower their emissions (think: home solar panels, used EVs).
  • Bigger problem: Despite the monumental law, scientists warn the world’s still "way off track" in capping rising temperatures, and the current energy crisis is making it harder for our gas-reliant globe to focus on green alternatives.

From countries to companies… governments and corporations have made ambitious pledges to curb greenhouse-gas levels, which hit a record in 2021. G20 countries (notably the US, China, Germany, and India) account for more than 80% of the world's economic output and 80% of global emissions. Only 6% of the G20's $14T in postpandemic stimulus spending went toward projects to lower emissions.

  • Companies aren’t doing so great either: 700+ of the largest 2K public companies have made net-zero commitments, and two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have set targets for emission reductions — but many are struggling to deliver.

Climate problems are costly… hence: the Dems’ massive package. But the crisis might be even costlier to ignore. Climate-related adaptation and resettlement are expected to be multitrillion-dollar challenges: unchecked climate change could cost the global economy $178T over the next half century — not to mention the devastating human toll. Extreme weather has cost the US nearly $2T since 1980, and nearly $100B last year alone.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Cloudy skies... literally. Cloud computing has enabled millions of Americans to work from home during the pandemic, but it’s come with a climate cost. There are nearly 3K data centers in the US alone, which can each use enough energy to power 50K homes. As global temps rise, cloud companies are racing to keep servers cool while reducing emissions. The process could take a while: the cloud stores over 60% of all corporate data and has a bigger carbon footprint than the entire airline industry.

Crypto's climate conundrum... Many blockchains (think: bitcoin) use gobs of energy to secure their networks. Bitcoin alone is estimated to guzzle more electricity than Argentina, and fossil fuels are key. A 2019 report said BTC mining emitted 23M metric tons of carbon dioxide a year (that # is likely greater now). But crypto's power situation is in flux. The planned September ethereum merge (PoW to PoS) will make that chain a lot less energy-hungry. Meanwhile, US officials may put their fingers on the crypto-emission scales with industry reforms.

Green investing… or green-washing? Investors hungry for climate-responsible capitalism are expected to park $50T in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds by 2025. Critics on the right say ESGs are too “woke” and critics on the left say ESGs are designed to prioritize profits over planet-saving progress. ESGs have underperformed the market by nearly 2% during the first half of this year, thanks partly to slumping tech stocks. Now: new EU regulations might tighten ESG marketing — or slow sustainable stocks.

Carbon capture... is capturing corporate attention. The UN says limiting global warming will require taking tons of carbon out of the atmosphere (think: trees, carbon-sucking machines.) In April, Stripe, Alphabet, Shopify, Meta, McKinsey, and others created a $925M carbon-capture fund. Microsoft plans to spend $471M on the tech, and oil giants like Exxon say they’re investing billions in taking their emissions out of the air. But skeptics say it’s safer, cheaper, and more efficient to reduce carbon emissions now rather than try to clean them up later.

ICYMI

Recent highlights…

  • Spark: E-truck maker Nikola agreed to buy battery biz Romeo Power. EV batteries are the new oil — both expensive and scarce. That’s why EV suppliers have invested $30B in the battery biz over the past two years.
  • Vroom: Dodge is retiring its gas-guzzling Challenger and Charger cars, and launching a new electric car (dubbed: Hornet). Dodge is leaning on brand fans to help it transition into a more EV-forward biz.
  • Boom: American Airlines agreed to buy 20 ultrafast jets that fly at twice the speed of commercial flights. New supersonics are super expensive, but their planned use of sustainable fuel could help demand take off.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Chomp: Plant-based meat alts (like: Beyond Meat) are seen as key to reducing deforestation and livestock-related emissions. But despite early hype, beef's still king. Fake meat's $$ might be a prime barrier.
  • Fatal: The number of US workers killed by high temperatures has doubled since the early ’90s. While white-collar workers can beat the heat, people who work outside face increasingly dangerous conditions.
  • Agree: Despite political differences, most Americans believe climate change is happening, have experienced extreme weather firsthand over the past year, and support policies like cutting renewable-energy costs.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from Zoom
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Intuit, Dick's Sporting Goods, Nordstrom, and Urban Outfitters
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Williams-Sonoma, and Petco
  • Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Dell, and Peloton
  • Friday: Earnings expected from Ubiquiti

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin and ethereum and shares of Nvidia, Shopify, Microsoft, Exxon, and Google

ID: 2389912

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.