Sherwood
Thursday Jan.27, 2022

🛻 Tesla’s truck trouble

Cybertruck’s Instagram vs. reality [Winslow Productions via Getty Images]
Cybertruck’s Instagram vs. reality [Winslow Productions via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Turning up on a Tuesday? More like “tying knot.” Weekday weddings are on the rise as rescheduled parties lead to overbooked venues.

Stocks fell after another bumpy day of trading as investors continued digesting Wednesday’s news that the Fed may raise interest rates in March. New data showed that US GDP had its strongest full year of growth since 1984, but that growth was possible only because of the significant pandemic slowdown.

Truckin’

Tesla’s profits 9X’d last quarter, but supply issues are catching up with the electric disruptor

Still leading the charge… for now. Tesla rolled up with earnings yesterday, announcing that profits 9X’d last quarter from a year earlier. Tesla had said earlier this month that its car deliveries nearly doubled in 2021 to almost 1M. Still, the stock dipped yesterday after Tesla warned of ongoing production challenges. Investors also have their eye on competition, which is heating up:

  • Tesla’s EV market share dropped from 80% to 66% last year as GM, Ford, and Volkswagen increased EV sales. Analysts expect VW to sell more EVs than Tesla by 2025, but also predict Tesla’s profits will still be higher.

Elon time coming… Last year, Tesla dodged chip-shortage challenges that plagued rivals like GM by diversifying suppliers, making its own parts, and even removing parts from some models. But yesterday Tesla said supply problems are now its “main limiting factor.”

  • Stuck: Tesla was supposed to start pumping out Cybertrucks last year, but earlier this month postponed the ETA to 2023, citing supply issues.
  • Unstuck: EV rival Rivian has already started delivering its electric trucks, and Ford’s electric F-150s are expected to hit roads this year.

Tesla’s supercharged valuation “scale power”... and Cybertruck’s traffic jam prove that scaling isn’t always easy. Tesla became more valuable than its five largest competitors combined by creating demand for electric cars — and making its own seem more like caviar than granola. But to continue succeeding it needs to scale production to match rivals like Toyota and VW, which crank out 10X as many cars annually. To that end, Tesla plans to open new Giga-factories this year in Texas and Germany. But VW, Ford, GM, and Lucid also plan to invest $20B+ in US EV plants in the next few years.

Frozen

Mattel wins back the right to make Disney princess dolls, in a deal that shows intellectual property is queen

Elsa’s back in her castle… but not in Arendelle. Six years ago, Mattel lost the rights to make and sell Disney princess dolls to rival Hasbro (aka: America’s #1 toymaker). Yesterday, Mattel finally got the lucrative princesses back — and Mattel shares spiked as much as 11% on the announcement. But winning back Jasmine, Ariel, and Moana was no royal carriage ride:

  • A whole new world: Mattel’s princess partnership started in 1996 and quickly became a profit puppy, especially after the addition of Frozen’s Elsa in 2013.
  • Frozen out: Mattel sold $440M worth of Disney princesses in 2015. Then, a year later, it lost them (#LetItGo). Since then, Mattel has changed CEOs four times.

Barbie’s dream makeover… After losing its profit princesses, Mattel doubled down on its Barbie biz, which was struggling from a sales slump. With the revamp came new, more diverse dolls (think: different skin tones, hair styles, and body types). It worked: Last year, Barbie sales jumped 87% in the first quarter, and it was named “Doll of the Year.” After witnessing Barbie’s comeback, Disney is putting Mattel in charge of its princesses once again.

Intellectual > property... Intellectual property can be worth more than the property itself, which is why Disney enjoys having others turn its characters into toys — for a big licensing fee. Disney loves being courted for its IP: The mouse controls which toys get bought through its movies, so the characters matter more than the plastic. That’s why Hasbro’s slice of the Disney pie also includes rights to “Star Wars” (see: Baby Yoda toy) and soon “Indiana Jones.” Meanwhile, Mattel has Disney’s “Toy Story” and “Pixar Cars.”

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Reverse: Intel stock jumped as much as 3% yesterday after European regulators reversed a $1.2B antitrust fine against the chipmaker based on claims it had tried to squeeze out competitors.
  • Bye: Spotify started pulling Neil Young’s music off its service, two days after the Rock and Roll Hall of Famer criticized the streamer for enabling the spread of Covid-vaccine misinformation through its exclusive Joe Rogan podcast.
  • Bonus: Bank of America said it’s giving out $1B of stock to all its employees, including tellers, in a push to retain flighty talent. The stock grants are reportedly worth multiples of last year’s bonuses.
  • Backfire: Amazon shut down an ambassador program that paid its warehouse workers to tweet positive things about their working conditions, the Financial Times reported. The program was roasted on social media.
  • Savage: Rihanna’s Savage X Fenty lingerie brand raised $125M in funding and opened its first store on the Las Vegas Strip. The company is now valued at $1.4B and plans to open 10 stores this year.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from: Blackstone, Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, McDonald's, Altria, Sherwin-Williams, and Atlassian

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of Tesla, Disney, GM, Ford, Amazon, Apple, and Spotify

ID: 2010514

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