Sherwood
Wednesday Aug.12, 2020

🏠 Airbnb's pandemic IPO

That "Work from Cabin" swagger
That "Work from Cabin" swagger

Hey Snackers,

Apples to apples, or apples to pears? Apple, Earth's most valuable company, has taken legal action against Prepear, a recipe app with... 5 employees. Apple thinks Prepear's green, sideways pear logo could "create confusion" with the world-famous Apple logo. We don't see it.

The market dipped, despite Russia registering the world's 1st COVID-19 vaccine, AKA "Sputnik V." That's a #sassy reference to the satellite Russia launched during the Cold War space race, beating the US to the 1st satellite. There are serious concerns around the Sputnik vaccine — 3rd round testing hasn't even started. But don't worry: Russian President Putin says one of his daughters got it. Phew.

Stay

Airbnb plans to file for its IPO this month (not as poorly-timed as it seems)

Where's the WiFi password?... Airbnb plans to file to IPO this month and could (finally) go public before the end of 2020, according to WSJ's infamous "people familiar with the matter" (#PFWTM). A 2020 IPO was on the books for a while. And then... COVID happened.

  • Bookings Plunge: By March, Airbnb bookings in COVID hot spots collapsed by 96%. After getting over $1B worth of cancellations, Airbnb shelled out $250M to cover hosts' losses.
  • Valuations Plunge: In March, Airbnb's value fell from $31B to $26B. By the time the pandemic hit full force, its valuation had plummeted to $18B.

Doesn't seem like IPO primetime... Even if Russia's vaccine miraculously proves to be safe and effective (unlikely), the travel/hospitality biz could be doomed for a while. Marriott just reported that sales plunged 72% last quarter — Hilton's sank 77% on similarly depressed bookings. But Airbnb has a few differentiators going for it:

  • Airbnbs are generally cheaper and less crowded than hotels, which appeals to our cost-saving, germ-avoiding pandemic lifestyle.
  • Staycations & "Work from Anywhere" are rising globally, as people get fed up with staring at their bedroom walls. Long, local getaways are the hot new thing ("Work-from-Hamptons").
  • On July 8, guests booked over 1M nights of future stays at global Airbnb listings, the 1st time bookings hit that level since March.

Airbnb is taking the Nike approach... Just do it. The home rental giant has been private for a looong 12 years. Investors are itching for a public listing, and some early employees hold stock options that expire this year. Airbnb could also really use the cash from a public fundraise: in April, it desperately agreed to pay 10% interest on a $1B loan. In May, it sadly laid off 1.9K employees (25% of its staff). With time not on its side, Airbnb may as well take the leap.

Pay

Facebook wants to create a giant, social-powered digital payments network

"Facebook Pay me"... Not as catchy as Venmo (but still #Zucked). Facebook has reportedly launched a new division that'll unify all its payment products under one umbrella. Excitingly-called "Facebook Financial" will run all digital payments, including Facebook Pay and Calibra crypto. Digital payments have soared as people fear germy paper cash — FB wants a (large) slice of that growth:

  • Facebook Pay lets you shop and send $$$ to friends directly through FB. In the US, it's available in FB, Messenger, and Insta. Everywhere else, it's only available through FB.
  • Facebook's Master Plan: Integrate FB Pay into all its apps globally for a huge social-powered payment network. The big focus is integrating FB Pay into WhatsApp in India, which has over 400M users.

Come together, right now... FB's feeling Paul and Ringo vibes. Its highly successful children have very different reps: Facebook (the helicopter parent), Instagram (the too-cool-for-school teen), WhatsApp (the foreign cousin), and Messenger (the distant aunt). Facebook Financial is its latest move to bring the "family" together:

  • Facebook added "from Facebook" branding on Insta and WhatsApp to make sure you know it owns your go-to apps. Given FB's complicated rep, we're not sure whether that helps or hurts.
  • Zuck announced plans to integrate FB's messaging services across apps. FB Financial will be a key part of this unified messaging backbone. Social + ecommerce is a powerful duo.

Own the wallet, own the power... Our spending data is a gold mine for advertisers — especially FB, which makes 98% of its sales from ads. By allowing users to spend/shop in-app, FB could charge way more for ads by better targeting users and boosting engagement. But FB's grand payments plan won't come without hurdles: Brazil, one of its largest markets, just blocked recently-launched WhatsApp payments on antitrust concerns.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Run: Joe Biden picks CA Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate — Harris is the 1st Black woman and Asian-American woman nominated for VP by a major party.
  • Ludicrous: Tesla will do a 5-for-1 stock split on August 31 to make its stock cheaper — if you own 1 share trading at $1.4K, you'll get 5 worth $280.
  • Softie: Softbank made ~$12B in profit last quarter, largely thanks to its sale of Sprint to T-Mobile — that's a big step up from the $9B loss it posted last fiscal year.
  • Defense: The Big Ten and Pac-12 postpone their football season and all fall sports on COVID concerns.
  • UnGigged: A judge ordered Uber and Lyft to treat CA drivers as employees with benefits (instead of independent gig contractors).

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple

ID: 1300409

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.