Sherwood
Wednesday Nov.30, 2022

🐩 Elon’s Apple beef

Elon’s core Apple problem (STR/NurPhoto/Getty Images)
Elon’s core Apple problem (STR/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Cryptopreneurs may be leaving Miami, but the city's mayor said he's still taking paychecks in bitcoin despite crypto winter. His wallet must feel cold.

Stocks ticked down yesterday as investors awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Brookings today — his last major scheduled speech before the next rate-setting meeting in mid-December. Investors are hoping for less hawkish policy in their stockings.

Blue

As Twitter tries to subscription-ize its biz model, Elon Musk takes on Apple's "app tax"

Elon is tech’d off with Apple
 and (as usual) he’s taken the beef to Twitter. On Monday the billionaire CEO posted a series of tweets accusing Apple of everything from threatening free speech to not being transparent about its censorship practices. But Elon’s core issues with Apple might be financial:

  • Ad spend: Elon said Apple has “mostly stopped” advertising on Twitter. FYI: Apple was Twitter’s #1 advertiser in Q1 of this year, spending a reported $48M in that quarter alone.
  • App spend: Elon also criticized Apple’s “app tax,” the ~30% cut of in-app purchases, downloads, and subs that Apple takes across apps in its store.
  • Now: Elon said Apple is threatening to remove Twitter from the App Store “but won’t tell us why.” Apple typically revokes App Store access when companies violate its policies.

Battle of the MVPs
 Musk wants to make Twitter profitable and diversify revenue beyond ads, which make up 90% of Twitter's sales (but have been sagging). Last year Twitter launched its Twitter Blue subscription, which includes perks like early access to new features (think: tweet-editing). This month, Twitter hiked the price of the sub to $8/month — and made it a requirement for users who want to gain the coveted blue checkmark. But Apple's 30% cut could strike a blow to Twitter’s non-ad sales — and its goal of doubling revenue by 2023.

Choose your enemies wisely
 On the one hand, Elon has a lot of support on his side against Apple’s app tax: developers like Fortnite maker Epic Games, Spotify, and Tinder parent Match have criticized the fees (and launched legal battles against Apple). On the other hand, antagonizing the world’s most valuable company — which makes the smartphones that millions use to browse Twitter — could have negative consequences.

Uncoal

For the first time in 30 years, Congress steps in to avert a disastrous holiday rail strike

Take the last train to Clarksville
 if it’s running. A nationwide rail strike has been looming for weeks. It’s a big deal because trains play a critical role in hauling goods, food, and materials across the US. Railroads move 30% of the nation’s freight, and a weeklong strike could cost the country $1B. President Biden warned it could put the economy “at risk.”

  • Yesterday: Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle vowed to pass legislation to prevent the strike. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress would have a bill ready by today.
  • For the sake of speed, they’ll vote on a tentative agreement that was previously hashed out in September. It would raise rail-worker wages by 24% by 2024. Eight unions voted to support it, but four didn’t (fully paid sick leave is a key sticking point). Hence the looming strike.

Dude, where’s my coal?... The last time Congress intervened to settle a nationwide rail dispute was 30 years ago. A holiday rail strike could be disastrous: halted train lines would freeze supply chains for key commodities like lumber and coal and aggravate inflation by driving up prices of consumer goods.

  • Bipartisan rarity: It seems as if both Dems and Republicans want to move fast to avoid a strike. A rail halt in the weeks leading up to Christmas = major doozy.
  • Pelosi said: “I don’t like going against the ability of unions to strike, but weighing the equities, we must avoid a strike.”

When shift hits the fan, alliances can shift
 Biden has been a strong union backer, having previously argued against congressional intervention in labor disputes. But this week the president requested that Congress intervene to force a deal by passing legislation. Now hundreds of business groups are praising Biden while his usual allies (unions) are criticizing the move.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • iPay: Foxxcon said it was paying extra to employees who return to its factory in Zhengzhou, China. Workers walked out after they said the iPhone assembler had failed to pay them promised bonuses. The plant makes 70% of all iPhones.
  • AMCuts: AMC Networks (think: "Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") announced that it was laying off 20% of its employees and that its CEO had stepped down. It said streaming revenue hasn't made up for $$ lost to cord cutting.
  • ETruck: Lordstown Motors said it's delivering its first batch of 500 electric trucks after getting key regulatory approvals. The EV biz almost went bankrupt last year before Foxconn invested.
  • Pending: Home price growth slowed again in September as high mortgage rates depressed demand. Still, prices were up more than 10% on the year.
  • Thirsty: Alameda Research owes $55K+ to the Bahamas Margaritaville resort. The shuttered crypto-trading firm shared a founder with bankrupt exchange FTX, which alone may have 1M+ creditors.

Wednesday

  • Fed Chair Powell speaks at Brookings Institution
  • Earnings expected from Salesforce, Snowflake, Hormel, Splunk, Okta, XPeng, Box, Victoria’s Secret, Petco, and La-Z-Boy

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin and shares of Apple and Match

ID: 2615376

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