From falling oil prices to rising inventory, we’re seeing signs that the inflation balloon might be deflating (slowly)

At least AriZona cans still cost 99 cents... While the iced tea has been sold for $0.99 for three decades, the global economy has been steeped in #flation. We'll see the latest when June's US consumer price data comes out Wednesday. May’s wasn’t pretty: prices were up 8.6% from last year. For context, annual US inflation averaged less than 2% from 2010 to 2019.

• ’Flation = a global fixation. In May, South Korea's inflation hit a 24-year high, the UK's surged to a 40-year high, and Turkey had 73% inflation (not a typo).

The balloon might be shrinking... Central banks have been raising interest rates to depress prices. Last week, the Fed indicated it’ll need to speed up rate hikes if the inflation outlook worsens. But as recession fears grow, we're seeing signs prices could cool:

• Oil's dropping: This is a biggie, since oil powers everything from your deliveries to your grocery store's fridge bill. Oil had its steepest one-day drop since March last week, and US gas prices dropped 21 days in a row — the longest down-streak in over two years.
• Ditto raw materials: Prices of commodities like cotton, lumber, and copper — used in everything from motors to homes and jewelry — have plunged since May.
• Inventory's growing: From Walmart to Target, large retailers are drowning in inventory — and trying to sell it at a discount. Price-slashing could ease ’flation.
• Tariffs could be cut: The US imports a lot from China (think: gadgets, clothes, metals). Now President Biden may ease some of the tariffs boosting costs on $300B worth of Chinese goods.