🏠 America’s housing gridlock
Hey Snackers,
A new “Lord of the Rings” plot hole just dropped: if Sauron wanted the ring so bad, why didn’t he just offer Frodo $2M? That’s what rapper Post Malone did, buying a one-of-a-kind “Magic: The Gathering'' card bearing the one ring to rule them all from a Toronto forklift operator.
Stocks ended the week in the red, with the S&P 500 down 2.3%, after a rare US credit downgrade on Wednesday sent jitters through markets. July data showed that US job growth cooled, while wages grew faster-than-expected. Amazon stock popped last week after strong earnings, but Apple slumped as investors digested falling hardware sales.
The US housing shortage means no one’s making moves — and gridlock could last years
50 neighborhoods, zero open houses… By some measures, it’s never been harder to find a home in America — let alone an affordable one. The problem: there are fewer than half as many houses for sale as there were five years ago, and that’s driving up prices and forcing folks to put their white-picket dreams on ice. Homebuilding giants like Lennar and KB Home are benefiting as they race to get more houses on the market, but supply is still lagging behind.
Sticker shock: Existing-home sales dropped to a five-month low in June. FYI: the median home sale price is $416K, about $100K higher than prepandemic.
Window-shop: Even foreigners are cooling on US cul-de-sacs. International buying of US homes dropped by 14% to the lowest # on record (~85K homes).
ZIP-code hop: In Q4, over a quarter of property searches on Redfin were in cities that prospective buyers didn't live in, as remote workers looked to leave pricey metro hubs.
Golden handcuffs... People who snapped up houses during the near-zero-interest era don’t want to give up the sweet rates they’ve locked in. Close to 90% of mortgage-holding homeowners have a rate under 6%, while the current 30-yr fixed is closer to ~7%. Homeowners are staying put, even if they’ve outgrown their houses: over 80% say they feel “locked in” by low rates. Meanwhile, others feel locked into the lease life:
#ForeverRenters: 70%+ of renters say they’ll never be able to afford a home. Rent prices are cooling for the first time in years, after surging throughout the pandemic.
Gridlock needs a (Fed) green light… Potential buyers are waiting for lower rates to afford a home, and homeowners who want to sell are waiting for lower rates to be free of their golden cuffs. Nearly 80% of consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a house, and over half of owners who plan to sell in the next three years are waiting for mortgage rates to drop. It could be a while: last month, Fed Chair Powell said rate cuts were still “a couple years out.”
The Biggest Disruption To $martphones in 15 Years 🤳🏼
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Early backers are getting up to 60% bonus stock, and in the first month alone, 9,900+ investors acquired shares — leaving only ~10% in the tier.
Coming up this week
Cue Nicole Kidman intro… AMC said it had its best week ever for box-office sales thanks to the Barbenheimer frenzy. But those Kentastic #s won’t be included in AMC’s earnings tomorrow. In May, the world’s largest movie-theater chain reported rising sales and smaller losses as moviegoers returned to red velvet seats. But revenue is still lower than prepandemic levels, and AMC’s at risk of running out of cash as its massive debt load comes due starting next year. More hits would help it avoid bankruptcy, but writers/actors are still striking.
Specialized swiping… Women-message-first app Bumble reports tomorrow, a day after LGBTQ-focused dating app Grindr. Grindr squeezed 41% more $$ out of paying users last year and reported continued growth in May, while Bumble got a revenue boost from users buying “compliments.” In a sign that swipers could keep spending, Match Group — which owns Tinder and Hinge as well as apps for single parents, 50-and-older daters, and Muslim singles — reported record quarterly revenue last week.
Stories we’re watching
Streaming’s Hail Mary… As the NFL’s preseason kicks off, streamers like Google’s YouTube, NBCUniversal’s Peacock, and Amazon’s Prime Video are hoping their costly deals to broadcast games will boost subs, but it’s no guarantee. After Amazon became the exclusive home of “Thursday Night Football” last season, TNF viewership plummeted 41%. YouTube, which is paying $2B/season for “NFL Sunday Ticket,” will need 4.5M subs to break even on the deal (former rights-holder DirecTV had ~1.5M). Cash-burning streamers are hoping for a W this season.
When fresh goes stale… Amazon’s planning to revamp its grocery-shopping experience as it reaches for a larger slice of the $1.5T US market. In addition to redesigning its Fresh stores and adding Whole Foods locations, it said it’ll expand its fresh-food delivery to non-Prime members. The “everything store” had struggled to sell perishables profitably (picture: huge minimum orders to break even), and last month it cut 100s of Amazon Fresh employees. Now, despite its record of shuttering Amazon Books and Go locations, it’s doubling down on IRL stores.
Last week's highlights
IOU: The US got its first downgrade from a major credit-rating agency in over a decade, which sent jitters through global markets. Fitch pegged its downgrade to the debt-ceiling drama. JPMorgan’s CEO called the move “ridiculous.”
Unpacked: The Biden admin introduced an income-driven repayment plan to lighten student-debt loads as loan payments are set to resume (psst: this fall). The SAVE plan application site went live last week.
Admart: Walmart is incorporating third-party ads in its self-checkout lanes, TV aisles, and store intercoms as its ad biz grows fast. Ads have become a big side hustle for retailers like Kroger and Target.
What else we’re Snackin’
Hello: The people who’ve been trying to reach you about your vehicle’s extended warranty have really been trying: last week, the FCC issued a record $300M fine to the companies behind 5B robocalls.
Transfer: Mexico received $60B in remittances last year, mostly from US-based workers sending $$ to family. But the strengthening peso is making USDs worth less, while inflation’s weighing down transfer amounts.
LongHaul: US travelers are opting for Mallorca over Montauk as international bookings surge ahead of domestic vacays. In response, airlines like United and Delta have added more int’l routes.
This Week
Monday: Earnings expected from Tyson Foods, Beyond Meat, and Lucid Group
Tuesday: Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization summit begins. Earnings expected from Bitfarms, Take-Two Interactive, Duolingo, AMC Entertainment, UPS, The New York Times, and Lyft
Wednesday: Earnings expected from Disney, Wendy’s, Grindr, Sony, Roblox, and Warby Parker
Thursday: NFL preseason begins. Jobless claims. July US CPI numbers. Earnings expected from Alibaba, Hut 8 Mining, Krispy Kreme, Ralph Lauren, Siemens, Six Flags, and Yeti
Friday: Producer Price Index. Earnings expected from Spectrum Brands
Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Apple, Beyond Meat, Comcast, Delta, Disney, Google, Match Group, and Walmart
*Advertiser’s disclosure: Please read the offering circular at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation CF Offering.
Correction: Because of a CMS glitch that failed to publish an italicized word in a hyperlink, Friday’s Snacks misstated that Coinbase said the SEC told the exchange to delist specific assets. Coinbase actually said that the SEC did not tell it to. We regret the error.