Hey Snackers,
Birkin who? The hottest purses in town are Trader Joe’s totes. The TikTok-viral $3 mini canvas bags have been selling like hotcakes, and now they’re being resold for up to $500 on eBay. It’s very peak capitalism, but it may save paper bags from being collected in pantries.
Bitcoin continued its rally yesterday, crossing $72K. The S&P 500 budged down as investors awaited today’s February consumer-prices index. Traders will look to the inflation data for clues on how soon the Fed might lower rates.
New York Community Bank scores a capital infusion, cooling fears of a Silicon Valley Bank sequel
Something to Mnuch on… New York Community Bank got a $1B booster shot from a group of investing firms led by former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital. Regional lender NYCB’s stock has plunged ~70% since it disclosed that it had lost $185M on a pair of real-estate loans. NYCB is tightly tied up in commercial real estate, which isn’t doing so hot right now. And 44% of its loans are in multifamily housing, 8% of which are at a high risk of default.
Growth spurt: NYCB is one of the US’s largest regional banks, ending last year with $116B in assets. It broke the $100B mark after acquiring failed Signature Bank, a move that brought it more regulatory scrutiny.
Contagion: Shares of other regional banks have slipped in NYCB’s wake, igniting fears of a wider banking fallout — like the one that happened nearly a year ago.
Do you get déjà vu?... Silicon Valley Bank got bailed out by the FDIC last March after it announced $2B in losses, inciting a bank run (TLDR: it invested most of its deposits into Treasury bonds, which plunged in value after rates soared). It was the biggest bank to collapse since Washington Mutual in 2008, and, shortly after SVB’s crisis, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank also failed. High interest rates and overexposure to real-estate loans are still causing problems for smaller banks. But experts say some things’ve changed: rates have stabilized and the gov’t and big banks appear to be better prepared.
Investors have fear of the known… The 2008 financial crisis still looms large in the public psyche, and one bank’s struggles can reignite fears of a meltdown. But experts including Fed Chair Powell said an NYCB-incited crisis is unlikely. The Fed’s working with regional banks that may be affected, while large lenders including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup have padded their balance sheets against real-estate losses.
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The Biden admin’s housing tax credit proposals may not budge golden handcuffs
Dark Brandon, real-estate agent… President Biden’s proposed a slew of initiatives targeting America’s housing-affordability crisis. Included: temporary $10K tax credits geared toward first-time home buyers and current homeowners looking to sell their starter homes. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since Biden took office, contributing to Americans’ bummed-out economic mood. Here’s what POTUS hopes could help:
For first-time buyers: a $10K tax credit spread over two years — effectively the same as a 1.5-percentage-point reduction in the mortgage rate for a $415K home (FYI: that’s the median US price).
For starter-home sellers: a $10K credit for selling a home below their county’s median price. To limit corporate buying (think: hedge-fund neighbors), the credit would count toward sales only to folks who plan on living in the home.
Other proposals: a $20B grant fund for building rental housing and a $37B expansion of the low-income housing tax credit.
 Been to a housewarming party lately?... Last year was the least affordable on record for buying a home in America. Home prices have climbed 27% since the start of the pandemic (hitting a record high in December), mortgage rates are close to multi-decade highs, and folks need six-figure incomes to comfortably afford a house (up from $59K prepandemic). Since 2021, the typical monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home has jumped by $800. Another issue: low supply. People who snapped up digs during the low-interest era don’t want to give up those sweet rates.
Golden handcuffs require golden keys… and it’s unlikely that the White House has ’em. The average rate on all outstanding US mortgage debt is 3.8% — significantly below the current ~7% rate on a 30-year mortgage. Low rates are golden cuffs that homeowners may struggle to part with, even with a $10K incentive to sell. Meanwhile, wannabe buyers are sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed to lower rates.
What else we’re Snackin’
TikOff: Biden said he’d sign a bill that could lead to a US-wide TikTok ban (if Congress passes it). Former President Trump, who’d tried to ban the app, pivoted by saying the bill would only help Meta.
Pump: Saudi oil behemoth Saudi Aramco, one of the world’s most valuable companies, raked in a $121B profit for last year ($24B more than Apple). Aramco’s monster profit was down from its 2022 record as oil prices slid.
Track: Some GM, Honda, and Kia drivers may’ve seen insurance costs pop after their cars recorded and shared their driving habits with data brokers. Automakers say it’s for safety, but experts think it’s about $$.
Macro: MicroStrategy bought 12K bitcoin for $821M. The software co, led by “bitcoin maximalist” Michael Saylor, holds $14B+ in BTC (more than any other public company) and its stock has become a crypto proxy investment.
YouXube: X is said to be releasing a smart-TV app to rival YouTube. In a bid to become the “everything app,” X has pushed into video, signing a deal with ex-anchor Dom Lemon and urging creators to publish vids.
Tuesday
Equal Pay Day
Earnings expected from Kohl’s
Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and shares of: Alphabet, Apple and GM