Sherwood
Wednesday Nov.27, 2024

🚗 Musk v. Newsom

California chargin’ (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
California chargin’ (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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Hey Snackers,

Fashion retailers including ASOS and Saks have started permanently banning customers with excessive return rates. TikTok haulers are shaking.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday as investors mostly shrugged off Trump’s plan to slap 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico (the US’s largest trading partners), plus an extra 10% on Chinese imports.

🩃 Feast your ears: Tune in to our Black Friday episode of “Snacks Mix” on Spotify or Apple Podcasts for a retail-earnings breakdown and a holiday-shopping preview.

💌 Grateful for you: Thank you and the millions of Snackers who read our newsletter! We’ll be back in your inbox on Monday, after the Thanksgiving market holiday.

Spicy

California could exclude Tesla from new EV tax rebates if Trump scraps the federal credit

Tit for tat
 California Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to offer electric-vehicle rebates in the Golden State if POTUS-elect Trump scraps the federal EV tax credit — but said Teslas likely wouldn’t be eligible for the incentive. Tesla stock sank after word that its cars might be excluded. Trump’s reportedly considering ditching Uncle Sam’s tax credit of up to $7.5K for EV buyers, and his staunch ally Elon Musk has suggested he supports the plan. If Trump goes through with it, Newsom said he’d try to institute rebates to incentivize Californians to buy electric cars (just not Teslas).

  • The reasoning: Newsom’s office cited efforts to encourage competition in the EV market as the reason Tesla (and potentially others) may be left out of the program.

  • Petty cash: Musk called Newsom’s move “insane,” saying that Tesla is the only company that manufactures EVs in California.

Electric beef
 Newsom has set ambitious targets to tackle the climate crisis, and Trump threatens to derail those goals. Trump has said that he would end California’s plan to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035. In his first term, Trump eliminated CA’s power to set its own standards on air pollution (the Biden admin restored that ability). Trump also loosened federal environmental regs and removed the US from the Paris climate agreement. Musk was a driving force behind making EVs mainstream, but appears to have toned down his climate ambitions since allying himself with Trump.

The electric transition needs help
 The shift to clean energy is slow going and needs all the juice it can get. Tesla, America’s biggest EV seller, accounted for over half of new electric-car sales in California last quarter. By excluding the biggest player from its incentive program, the state may be doing a disservice to its own environmental goals. Still, there’s speculation that Musk supports ending EV tax credits because it could help Tesla stay in the lead.

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Latte-Probs

Coffee prices hit multi-decade highs as supply-chain probs drip down to consumers

That’s that me espresso
 Coffee’s getting es-pensive. Arabica-bean futures hit a 27-year high this week, while futures for the lower-cost robusta (think: instant coffee) reached their highest price since the ’70s. Bean prices are jumping as the industry deals with a double shot of supply-chain probs. An extreme drought in Brazil (the top arabica producer) has devastated crops. Its bean haul this season is expected to be 26% smaller than last year’s. In Vietnam (the leading robusta grower) a lack of rainfall shrank shipments; this quarter the region could reap half of its typical supply.

  • Perk down: Budget-strained shoppers are skipping pricey beans. Sales of at-home coffee dipped more than 1% this year after surging in 2020 (remember dalgona coffee?).

French-pressed
 Coffee sellers have been trying to figure out which strategy will boost their sales: passing down costs by raising prices, or keeping prices steady even as it squeezes margins. Nestle, the world’s biggest coffee maker, has raised java prices twice since 2022 and said more hikes are on the way. Meanwhile, Starbucks and coffee-pod maker Keurig Dr Pepper tried cutting prices and using promos to boost sales, but said that strategy failed. Now they plan to raise prices and nix promos. Downmarket, Folgers owner JM Smucker just reported its sales surged last quarter as shoppers opted for its more affordable joe.

Know your customer
 Some shoppers are trading down to budget brands to get their caffeine fix. But when it comes to treating themselves to primo beans and fancy lattes, discounts don’t seem to affect coffee-buying cadences. When an item has “treat yourself” status, customers may buy it less often, but be willing to stomach higher prices when they do.

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What else we’re Snackin’

  • Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could affect the price of oil, cars, food, and beer (including Constellation Brands’ Modelo).

  • Kohl’s stock plunged 17% after the struggling department store reported its worst quarterly profit since at least 1999 (barring 2020). 

  • Abercrombie reported another quarter of fierce sales growth and gave a high-rise forecast, expecting holiday demand to be far from distressed.

  • JM Smucker said it expects to sell more than $900M worth of Uncrustables this year, after sales of the sandwiches grew 16% last quarter.

  • Best Buy didn’t have its best earnings, reporting its 12th straight quarter of slipping same-store sales as shoppers shunned appliances and electronics.

  • As ChatGPT becomes increasingly popular in the workplace, the employees best poised for success will be the ones who can harness its power wisely. Supercharge your productivity, with HubSpot's "How to Use ChatGPT at Work" guide.

Snack Fact of the Day

The TSA expects to screen 18.3M passengers this Thanksgiving, a record

Wednesday

  • Initial jobless claims

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s fave inflation index

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Starbucks and Tesla

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