__Alexa, play "In My Life" by The Beatles...__ Jeff Bezos is feeling post-Prime Day nostalgia. Yesterday, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__'s founder officially stepped down as CEO after 27 years at the helm. The 'Zon has come a long way since 1995, when Bezos sold the site's first book from his Seattle garage. Bezos had left a cushy hedge fund job to take a risk on his ecomm idea, [saying](https://yourstory.com/2020/02/jeff-bezos-boss-david-shaw-ecommerce-amazon/amp) "Even if I fail, I would not have any regrets." Spoiler: *he didn't fail*. 

- __Enter Jassy:__ Andy Jassy = Amazon's new CEO. The Amazon lifer was the CEO of AWS, Amazon's *massive* cloud computing service ($45B in annual sales).    
- __Exit Bezos:__ Kind of. Bezos is now exec chairman, focusing on new Amazon products and special projects. 
- __Cue investors:__ Amazon stock barely budged when the transition was [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/74ToixyRpxD4zT2RPAUqb/articles/1TzZuEtqxwSJ5xwQGSycsr/) in February, signaling investors have confidence in the shift.

__Special delivery...__ CEO onboarding packet, coming in *bulky*. Jassy is inheriting an ecomm and cloud leader with side-hustles in hardware, grocery, advertising, healthcare, streaming, *and* Hollywood (see: [MGM acquisition](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1N31BqWqFLT91MgZLUXNEq/articles/6ccELOc86lnzTpPcIn2vKo/)). 

- __What’s going well:__ Money. Amazon's sales surged 44% last quarter, and profit more than tripled as the ecommerce boom keeps booming. The 'Zon is expected to rake in [40%+](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/as-e-commerce-sales-proliferate-amazon-holds-on-to-top-online-retail-spot.html) of US ecomm sales by the end of the year. 
- __*Not* going well:__ Regulatory scrutiny. The FTC's new leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who wrote a [major](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) paper on Amazon's dominance while at Yale Law. Last week, Amazon made moves to stop her from participating in 'Zon-related antitrust investigations. Oh, and a House committee just [advanced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tRYnsRgn3rJ4caqG3lXnl/articles/1RLuAoU5YouPqt1GL30lzZ/) major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. 

Nostalgic

__Bezos' focus was  blistering growth...__ Jassy's focus might be  corporate responsibility. Amazon's 14 corporate principles include: "deliver results," "bias for action," and "customer obsession." A few days before Jassy took over, Amazon renamed them Leadership Principles and [added](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/amazon-revises-corporate-values-days-before-bezos-steps-down#:~:text=Amazon%20Revises%20Corporate%20Values%20Days%20Before%20Bezos%20Steps%20Down,-By&text=Amazon.com%20Inc.%20employees%20are,adding%20two%20more%20bullet%20points.) two: “Strive to be Earth’s Best Employer,” and “Success and Scale Bring Broad Responsibility.” They're reactions to criticism Amazon has received over the years — but they're also Bezo's parting words to Jassy,  to tee up Amazon's next chapter. 

The King of Amazon hands over his crown: here's what's ahead for the new CEO 

__Space Battle of the Billionaires...__ Most people do summer vacays in Florida or Yosemite — billionaires go to space. __Virgin Galactic__ founder Richard Branson plans to [board](https://www.wsj.com/articles/richard-branson-plans-virgin-galactic-space-trip-before-jeff-bezos-11625181813) a test spaceflight on Sunday. Awkward, since that's nine days before Jeff Bezos is scheduled to embark on his __Blue Origin__ space trip (announced *before* Branson's). Aside from fueling billionaires' egos, these trips are billboards for NASA-sponsored [space tourism](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5FWjUZF34wCrp57CR8ykmX/articles/4nclQE3efo2kF2GIohnPxn/). The fact that CEOs are getting aboard helps build confidence in the emerging industry. 

__Marvel returns...__ with a vengeance. __Marvel__ is releasing *Black Widow* in theaters and Disney+ on Friday, after delaying it for more than a year. It’s the first Marvel flick to debut in theaters since the pandemic began. Now: 80% of movie theaters are open, and Covid restrictions have  relaxed. The US box office is [seeing](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/fourth-of-july-box-office-not-as-robust-this-year-but-its-on-track.html) a strong recovery, but hasn't caught up to its pre-Covid success yet. *Black Widow*'s ticket sales could give us a glimpse into summer demand. 

Events

Coming up this week...

__Labor shortage update...__ Still short. US employers [added](https://www.wsj.com/articles/june-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11625176511?mod=hp_lead_pos1) an expectation-beating 850K jobs in June, the biggest gain in 10 months. Unemployment ticked up to 5.9%, in part because more Americans started job-searching. As the US economy roars back to life, demand for workers is revving up, too. Wages jumped last month as employers from restaurants to gig apps tried to attract workers. Case in point: __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ are spending millions on driver incentives, and you've probably seen ads recruiting food delivery drivers. 

__Heat waves in the middle of June...__  A record-breaking heat wave has been [plaguing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5MbpAg6JNCCUZT9rzZmVeK/articles/786ZOvBNd39DMDQ0HLmZ2b/) the Pacific Northwest. The temp in Portland soared to 116 degrees last week, hotter than Miami, Dallas, and LA have *ever* been. All that sweat means more $$$ for A/C companies like __[Carrier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CARR)__, __[Lennox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LII)__, and __[Trane](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TT)__, whose stocks are near record highs. But for the agriculture industry, the too-hot-handle temps could mean [smaller](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/07/02/news/heat-wave-bc-prairies-farmers-climate-change) crops and fewer workers. For consumers, it could mean even pricier food. 


Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

- __[Dismissal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3do8YTeMc1o5ouXYxDJMjM/articles/2VeNxgBDUGn9Tyo5q82MGq/):__ The FTC was disappointed when a judge failed to Like its antitrust complaint against __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__. 
- __[Tok](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4pL5CXoQ8WqEd2krxJNCcR/articles/4xlYC1FzgdfLlf3hjCbsBz/):__  __TikTok__ is rolling out longer videos, but the real story is its Chinese sister Douyin. 
- __[Spaghetti](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5MbpAg6JNCCUZT9rzZmVeK/articles/1TtaqnhsNW91YZNIQTFbsb/):__ __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ is opening its first restaurant to facilitate IRL connections. But it's not about dating — it's about relevance.


ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

S&P 500

Dow Jones

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

_Bezos' galactic greeting committee [Donald Iain Smith via GettyImages]_

📦 Amazon's next era

__"Say So," the full version...__ Well, almost. __TikTok__ is [rolling](https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/1/22558856/tiktok-videos-three-minutes-length?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4) out three-minute videos for everyone, a boost from the current one-minute limit. That means you could learn the full lyrics of viral songs, instead of half a chorus. It *also* means that the nature of TikTok — and its bite-sized content — could change. 

- __24.5 hours:__ How long the [average](https://www.adweek.com/media/app-annie-tiktok-leads-youtube-in-average-time-spent-per-month-in-the-us/) US TikToker spends on the app each month — over 30 years, that would amount to nearly a full year of life scrolling the Tok (#womp). 
- __20 hours:__ How long US users spends on __YouTube__ each month. YT has biased its algorithm toward viewer retention. Read: longer vids.
- __If longer videos__ lead to higher usage, TikTok could tweak its addicting algorithm to promote long clips. 

__While vids get longer...__ the wallet is getting fatter. TikTok's Chinese owner __ByteDance__ saw sales more than double last year to $34B, [according](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-owner-bytedances-annual-revenue-jumps-to-34-3-billion-11623903622) to WSJ — nearly 14X __Snap__'s annual revenue. 

- __Even wilder stat:__ Last year, ByteDance reportedly had *1.9B* monthly users across its platforms, which include TikTok and Douyin, the Chinese TikTok. 
- __Douyin__ =  the original, non-international version of TikTok used by Chinese nationals. Same branding, same parent, separate content — censored by the Chinese gov't. 

Toker

__ByteDance has the "two worlds" advantage...__ That could be its biggest competitive edge. Nearly one in four people on Earth use a ByteDance app — that puts it on par with Facebook and YouTube, and far past Snap and Twitter. Meanwhile: Facebook, YouTube, Snap, and Twitter are all *banned* in China. Because these platforms aren't censored by China, they're closed off from the world's most populous country, limiting their growth. With TikTok *and* Douyin, ByteDance has the best of both worlds. 

TikTok is rolling out longer videos — but the real story is its Chinese sister Douyin 

__Legally Zoomed...__ to the public market. When you need legal help, you either a) do hours of Googling, or b) beg your friend to FaceTime with their lawyer mom — anything to avoid paying $500/hour. __[LegalZoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LZ)__ tries to fix that by offering legal services online. Think: DIY legal documents and e-consultations. You fill out some questions, and LZ whips up completed legal docs. On Wednesday, the 20-year-old company whipped up an IPO:

- __LegalZoom shares__ soared 35% from their IPO price on their first trading day, giving it a $7B+ market cap.  
- __8%:__ LZ's CEO says that only 8% of legal services are delivered online, creating a big opportunity for online legal providers. Legal services market = ~$50B opp. 

__"Call my e-lawyer...__ I need to LLC my CBD kombucha startup." 2020 was the [best](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/06/29/1010229557/what-americas-startup-boom-could-mean-for-the-economy) year on record for new business creation, and applications for new businesses have continued to soar this year. LegalZoom reaped the benefits of all those business apps:

- __Last year, 10% of new LLCs__ (limited liability companies) and 5% of new corporations in the US were formed through LegalZoom. LZ's sales soared to nearly half a billion. 

Kombucha

__LZ is a piggyback stock...__ to the Creator Economy. In September, WSJ [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-insane-to-start-a-business-during-coronavirus-millions-of-americans-dont-think-so-11601092841) that Americans were starting businesses at the fastest rate since 2007. And it's not just brick-and-mortar stores. During the pandemic, Americans created new businesses from Etsy shops, online fitness services, apps, and podcasts. And those creators needed legal docs to seal the deal.   

LegalZoom jumps after IPO: the DIY legal service is riding high on the business boom 

When the CBD kombucha LLC gets approved [10'000 Hours via GettyImages]

📱 TikTok does long Toks 

__Crank the A/C to "Arctic Tundra"...__ ICYMI: a record-breaking heat wave has been plaguing the Pacific Northwest. Portland makes you think of rainy days in coffee shops — this summer, it feels more like you're *in* the coffee. The temp in Portland [soared](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/portland-soared-116-degrees-hotter-dallas-miami-la-have-ever-n1272617) to 116 degrees yesterday, hotter than Miami, Dallas, and LA have *ever* been. Seattle has seen hundreds of heat-induced ER visits, and Portland is dealing with [melting](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/29/1011269025/photos-the-pacific-northwest-heatwave-is-melting-power-cables-and-buckling-roads) power cables and roads.

__Too hot to handle...__ Not for A/C companies. All that sweat means more $$$ for HVAC companies like __[Carrier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CARR)__, __[Lennox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LII)__, and __[Trane](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TT)__. Not so coincidentally, *their stocks are near record highs*. There's just one problem: A/C generates tons of carbon emissions. Keeping the world cool requires heavy electricity use, which is often powered by fossil fuels like coal and gas. 

- __15% of greenhouse gases come from HVAC systems__ — aka: heating/cooling tech. Now, some A/C giants are trying to go "sustainable."
- __Enter Trane Technologies:__ Trane's sales jumped last quarter as the world heated up, but it says its #1 strategy is "winning through sustainable innovation." 
- __Trane's goal:__ Reduce 1 gigaton of CO2 emissions from its customers’ footprint by 2030, through “clean” technologies and higher energy-efficiency. 

Cool

__A/C companies are their own tailwind...__ Thanks to the "Conditioning Climate Cycle." A/C helps fight the sweat-inducing effects of climate change, but it also significantly contributes to them. Nineteen of the hottest years on record have been in the past 20 years. That means more people installing and cranking A/C, which means growing sales for HVAC companies — and more climate-warming emissions. But if HVACs can become more sustainable, they can start reversing more of their negative impact, too.

Air conditioning stocks are at record highs, and so are outside temps: it's a self-feeding cycle

__Swipe right on the zucchini pasta...__ Four months after its IPO, __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ is doing an IRO: initial restaurant offering. The dating app where women make the first move is [opening](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-30/dating-app-bumble-will-open-its-first-cafe-in-new-york-in-july) its first restaurant in NYC this month: "Bumble Brew."  The bar/restaurant concept was orginally focused on “date-friendly” food. Read: no splattering sauces or volcanic burritos. Then, the pandemic forced Bumble to put its gastronomic plans on hold, and it emerged with a different mission. 

__Not just first dates...__ Bumble wants Brew to be a spot for connections of all kinds, from frittata with friends and family to networking over chardonnay. So it scrapped the date-friendly menu and added riskier choices like squid ink spaghetti. 

- __That aligns with Bumble's new biz strategy:__ *not just a dating app*. Bumble has expanded with Bumble Bizz for career networking, and Bumble BFF for new friends.
- __*Back to the dating*:__ 90% of US Bumble users say they're ready to date IRL again. While Brew could host career chats, pent-up dating demand is Bumble's biggest opportunity. 
- __Dating app folder is overheating:__ Bumble will have to share that demand with its much bigger rival __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__, which owns Tinder, Hinge, and 20+ other e-romance apps. 

_Remembering how to swipe right IRL [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

Buzzy

__Apps bring scale, but community brings relevance...__ If out of sight = out of mind, then Bumble wants to be the opposite — and gain an edge over Match in the process. Bumble shares are down 24% since it IPO'd. Building community with a physical presence could help it get its groove back. That's one reason companies like __Warby Parker__ and __AllBirds__ keep opening physical stores, despite having successful ecomm businesses. 

Bumble is opening its first restaurant, but it's not about dating — it's about relevance 

 🐝  Bumble's restaurant play

__They should pay in points…__ [United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL) is buying 270 new Boeing and Airbus planes in the [largest](https://www.axios.com/united-biggest-plane-order-in-its-history-bf07b4b1-367f-4a29-bf5a-fcbe2f356002.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top) aircraft deal in a decade. We’re talking [$30B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-places-its-biggest-jet-order270-boeing-and-airbus-planes-11624960800?mod=hp_lead_pos2) worth of flying metal that’ll result in: 100 new flights/day, 30% more seats, and a hefty 25K new jobs.

__When you say “Work From Anywhere”...__ does that include 35K feet? United’s new birds aren’t the ultra skinny ones — and that’s on purpose. To get business flyers back, United seems to be creating flying offices with hopes that you’ll “Work From Airplane”:

- __More:__ More legroom, in-seat screens, and overhead suitcase space.
- __Faster:__ WiFi speeds kicked up a few notches so… you’re… not… buffering.
- __Premium-ier:__ Overall seating capacity will rise 30%, but [premium seating](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-battle-to-lure-back-premium-travellers-has-begun-11624977777) will jump 75%, meaning more room to physically network.

Takeoff

__United could be opting for the  Field of Dreams strategy...__ If you build it, they may come. Bill Gates predicted that [half](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/coronavirus-bill-gates-says-more-than-50percent-of-business-travel-will-disappear-long-term.html) of business travel is never coming back. But United’s CEO disagrees: “Every day tells us that business and international travel will ultimately come back 100%.” Bold. But that may be why United splurged a record amount on this deal: As marketing to convince you that working from an airplane is comfy. United isn’t just predicting demand — it’s trying to create demand.

United just placed its biggest airplane order — we call them “Sky Offices”

__Check the back of your Apple device…__ “Designed in California, assembled in China” — not on the label: Assembled at Foxconn’s Chinese manufacturing facility. [Taiwan-based](https://www.foxconn.com/en-us/about/worldwide) Foxconn has done to electronic manufacturing what Henry Ford did to carmaking. And it was supposed to expand that expertise to a brand new factory in the US. Time for an update:

__“8th Wonder of the World”...__ That’s what then-President Trump called the Foxconn plan for Wisconsin: Hire up to 13K local workers to make [screens](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/watch-trump-announces-wisconsin-jobs--maybe-with-apple-supplier-foxconn.html) for cars, TVs, and other electronics. In exchange, Foxconn would get up to [$4B](https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-foxconn-say-new-deal-reached-for-southeast-wisconsin-manufacturing-plant-with-fewer-tax-credits/article_baf80224-69ac-5a65-a65c-d3337f1a2d81.html) in benefits from the state, county, and the small town of Mount Pleasant, WI. So here’s the update:
- __1.5K:__ That’s the new job goal, after the deal got negotiated — [90%](https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/foxconn-to-receive-80-million-not-3-billion-under-new-deal-with-wisconsin/article_1a25e3b9-d37d-5031-b297-199f6bfb3b78.html) smaller than planned.
- __$1B:__ That’s how much Wisconsin has [spent](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/after-wisconsins-foxconn-debacle-states-rethink-giant-subsidies.html) to prep the site — not cheap.

__Transactional incentives can be a powerful weapon…__ that can backfire. Wisconsin hoped to be the epicenter of advanced American manufacturing. Instead, the town is saddled with debt, and local workers face broken job promises. The lesson Wisconsin officials took: One-off deals with corporations for job creation may not be optimal. Instead, [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/after-wisconsins-foxconn-debacle-states-rethink-giant-subsidies.html) highlights that Wisconsin is pivoting to focus on workforce development, infrastructure, and biz-friendly policies – not deals. 

Foxconn was supposed to create the “8th Wonder of the World” in Wisconsin – it didn’t

"I'll take the Sky Office, please" [Jayme Thornton via GettyImages]

✈️ Meet the "Sky Office"

__Facebook vs. many government lawyers…__ The FTC and 46 states sued Facebook [back](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3W2qDBQC1zd66GBLGKcPH5/articles/btPa9ZLG0TKdCGgtFoeSA/) in December, arguing it unfairly maintained its monopoly status (in social media, DMs, and likes/comments) by crushing competition and buying rivals. The government asked that Facebook unwind Instagram and WhatsApp, separating them as different companies. 

- __Facebook’s lawyers filed a motion to dismiss__, fearing an expensive legal fight and a heartbreaking goodbye to Insta.
- __Yesterday, the judge granted the dismissal.__

__But, the judge [critiqued](https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-judge-dismisses-government-antitrust-lawsuits-against-facebook-11624907747?mod=hp_lead_pos1) the government’s complaint, not the case...__ The judge said the government’s complaint failed to identify an actual violation of antitrust law. “[Legally insufficient](https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/facebook0628.pdf)” were his exact words about the evidence. The judge also gave the government a chance to amend its complaint within 30 days. 

- __That didn’t temper Wall Street joy...__ FB surged 4% to a record high. Add up all of FB’s stock today, and it’s worth more than $1T. The $1T club includes Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Amazon, Google, and now –  Facebook. 


$1 trillion company launch party [Morsa Images via GettyImages]

Suit

__FB won the battle, but there could still be a war...__ Last week, a House Committee advanced six bills that would crackdown on what many in Congress have called unfair play by tech giants. Yesterday, a federal judge said that existing antitrust law — which was written 100 years ago — doesn’t paint Facebook as doing anything wrong. That gives FB some short-term breathing room, but could motivate Congress to change antitrust law. *21st century tech requires 21st century antitrust laws.* New talking points could be coming. 

Judge dismisses FTC case against Facebook. But the victory could motivate the social giant’s foes in Congress 

__Throwback to 2006…__ Honda’s stock is at the same place it was 15 years ago. The Japanese car legend has been coasting in neutral, without an electric or self-driving plan — Until now. Honda just announced its first [fully electric car](https://www.autonews.com/marketing/honda-will-call-its-gm-based-ev-prologue?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) (“The Prologue”) and plans to be [100% electric](https://hondanews.com/en-US/honda-corporate/releases/release-32797eaea7316f1bed4bfcd27919f703-honda-targets-100-ev-sales-in-north-america-by-2040-makes-new-commitments-to-advances-in-environmental-and-safety-technology) in North America by 2040 (FYI: Nothing excites car shoppers like a literary reference in a vehicle name).

__But one weird thing...__ Honda’s not building the new Prologue — General Motors is taking care of that. This goes back to a “[strategic](https://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/home.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2020/sep/0903-mou.html) alliance” announced last year. But Honda’s kind of acting like Robin saying they’re cofighting crime with Batman.

- __Awkward:__ Honda’s first electric car will be [pumped](https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/gm-build-honda-ev-mexico-acura-ev-tenn-sources-say) out of GM’s Mexico plant.
- __Awkwarder:__ Even its higher-end Acura electric will come from GM’s Tennessee plant.
- __Awkwardest:__ Honda says it has designed the “exteriors and interiors” — But GM’s making the batteries and powertrain, and running the assembly.

Electric

__Is it an alliance or a dependence?...__ So far, it’s not clear if GM is teaching Honda how to drive electric, or if GM is in the process of it slowly taking over. Honda claims it won’t rely on GM forever and will make its own Prologue after 2024. But Honda is also in the middle of a 15-year stretch of stagnation, without  electric or fully self-driving mojo. So GM could be helping Honda complete the transition to 100% electric. Or maybe this “alliance” could develop into a longer-term dependence.

Honda finally announced its first EV — But someone else is making the car

🏆 FB's $1T win

1. __America's booming recovery...__ Cue the "[revenge spending](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2lFqgJt0AfN3zJsbqdxm7m/articles/17MF35F4AhEUwPGvF1qKzt/)." The US economy is roaring back to life and is expected to grow [6.5%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-u-s-economy-roars-back-life-in-many-poor-countries-gets-worse-11617874201) this year, its highest rate since the '80s. Thank the US' massive stockpile of Covid vaccines for the glow-up — oh, and *$5.3T* worth of gov't stimulus. This year, Americans are spending more on restaurants, flights, and *non*-stretchy clothes (pajamas are about to enter a recession). US plane traveler volume is back to three-quarters of 2019 levels, up from 25% a year ago. But the reopening economy has also been driving inflation and shortages. And while the US recovers, poorer nations are falling [further](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64VKtgKZkaaZZmAmaD67OM/articles/4D1D5CUdIwzesT1nTfvvJM/) behind. 

2. __The rise of alt-coins...__ This year, crypto mainstreamification is going far beyond Bitcoin: we call it "[coin crowding](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/dLcrQb1mMJkJggNDpsdYE/articles/2ZsEiE2UH2RHJdVHispio6/)." In January, BTC made up 70% of total crypto value — now, it makes up 45%. Alt-coins like Ethereum and Doge have picked up crypto market share, dimming BTC's spotlight. Smaller coins like DigiByte, VeChain and SafeMoon have also gained traction – and then there's [influencer coins](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/04/20747194/how-bitclout-aims-to-let-people-bet-on-twitter-influencers-using-creator-coins).  As BTC's environmental impact comes under scrutiny, "green" alternatives like Chia are getting attention, too.  Coin crowding is a new phenomenon with high volatility risk, and the long-term outcomes are still unclear.

3. __Big Tech's antitrust problems...__ have gotten a whole lot anti-er. This year, regulators are bringing real heat. Since the Apple-Epic [trial](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5mrz8IgUB1Bjuc9ILsHQOj/articles/4GARoezVkzR6VmTXvlwEa1/) in May, the temp has gone from steam room to sauna. Just last week, a House committee [advanced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5tRYnsRgn3rJ4caqG3lXnl/articles/1RLuAoU5YouPqt1GL30lzZ/) major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. The headliner: a bill that would prohibit tech companies from playing favorites with their own products (think: Apple apps on App Store, Basics on Amazon). Meanwhile, newly confirmed FTC leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who could expand the scope of antitrust enforcement. Blocked acquisition and even tech breakups seem more plausible.

_Inflation has been #trending — here's where some of the price jumps happened (source: BLS)_

Themes

The Big Picture: three key themes that defined the first half

- __1.9M:__ Global Covid deaths from January to June, already [higher](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-deaths-this-year-have-already-eclipsed-2020s-toll-11623350773) than 2020's toll.
- __57%:__ Percentage of US adults who have been fully vaccinated.
- __~$2.5K:__ The [average](https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-are-unemployed-why-cant-companies-find-workers-11620302440?mod=hp_lead_pos1) monthly unemployment payout with boosted benefits, extended until September. 
- __-20%:__ Fall in the stock price of the 50 biggest SPACs this year.
- __5,000%:__ Surge in the price of Dogecoin this year so far. 


Numbers

The Numbers: five big numbers that defined the first half

1. __Inflation's effect on stocks...__ Will it have one? If the first half of the year were a hashtag, it would be #flated. For most of the year, investors worried that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than expected to tamp down rising prices as the economy revved up (see: our chart above). This month, the Fed suggested it would do just that (ETA: 2023). Higher interest rates can make stocks less attractive compared to less risky assets like bonds and savings accounts. Despite the #flated sitch, stocks are at records highs. But if inflation starts to look like a trend rather than a one-time reopening blip, that could change. 

2. __Big tax hikes for corporations...__ Will they actually happen? This month, G7 countries came to a historic [agreement](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1vHKAgE3hJdaCFv0cdJNIm/articles/6v5vQpqDdzXIWNmx3Oc9VL/): multinational companies should pay a minimum tax rate of at least 15% in each country in which they operate. That could hurt Big Tech companies like __Google__ and __Amazon__, who've  been plopping their international HQs in countries with low corporate tax rates. Meanwhile, President Biden wants to [raise](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/1d7eiIZp8iwgUI9aKXGIQZ/) the corporate tax rate in the US to 28% from 21% to fund trillions worth of proposals. Neither of these tax hikes have passed yet, and they'll likely get pushback — but they've become  more likely.

3. __Economic competition with China...__ Can the US stay #1? With its tech power and growing international influence, China’s becoming a bigger economic threat to the US economy. This month, the Senate approved a $250B bill to subsidize Made In USA  R&D for key industries of the future (think: tech, chips). The bipartisan goal: *keep the US competitive against China*. Then, G7 countries announced “Build Back Better World”: a Biden-inspired partnership to rival China's "Belt and Road" initiative by financing infrastructure projects in developing countries. 

Future

Looking ahead: three major questions for the rest of the year

🍪 The Midyear Review

__"Not vibes"...__ Big Tech's current thought bubble. Antitrust issues have dominated the news for a long time, but this week turned up the heat in a big way. Yesterday, a House committee approved sweeping legislation to curb the dominance of __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, and their Big Tech frenemies. 

- __Six-bill package:__ Not the kind Bezos likes to receive. Of the six bills that were advanced, one hits hardest: legislation that would prohibit Big Tech companies from playing favorites with their own products on their platforms. 
- __Think:__ Apple not promoting Apple Music over Spotify in the App Store, and Amazon not favoring Amazon Basics in search results. 
- __Buuuut:__ The bills still need to pass the full House to become law, and tech giants are lobbying [harder](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/technology/amazon-apple-google-facebook-antitrust-bills.html) than ever to make sure they don't.

__More tech woes...__ The legislation would also give federal agencies like the FTC way more muscle to block Big Tech acquisitions of startups (like FB & Instagram nine years ago). Last week: Big Tech [critic](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) Lina Khan was sworn in to lead the FTC, the US gov't agency that enforces antitrust laws. 

- Google and Apple say the bills could bring significant security concerns, while making the user experience worse. 
- While the legislation has bipartisan support, critics in Congress say it would give too much power to the government in Big Tech operations. 


_Big Tech's bad news week [AdShooter/E+ via GettyImages]_

Anti

__Antitrust just got a whole lot anti-er...__ That could hit Big Tech where it hurts: in the balance sheet. The aggressiveness of tech lobbying shows how serious of a threat these developments are. If the bills pass, that might make room for smaller companies to compete. 


Big Tech is feeling serious heat: feat. six major antitrust bills and a new FTC head

__What Twilight character are you?...__ Jacob SPAC. __BuzzFeed__ announced plans to go public via SPAC-quisition, which would value the combined company at $1.5B — $200M less than BuzzFeed was worth in 2016. BuzzFeed also plans to buy digital publisher __Complex__ for $300M. Its goal: become a digital media giant. 

__Sad listicle...__ Digital media companies have been struggling for years to compete with __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__, and ad newbie __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ — aka: where most of the advertising bucks go. 15-year-old BuzzFeed is no exception to the struggle, with missed revenue targets and layoffs on its record. Now it's hungry for mergers.

- __Last year,__ BuzzFeed acquired HuffPost from Verizon. And its CEO [reportedly](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/23/business/media/buzzfeed-spac-deal.html) held talks to merge with competitors including Vice, Vox, and PopSugar-owner Group Nine. Now it's getting Complex. 
- __In BF's own words:__ "With this acquisition, BuzzFeed becomes even better-positioned to thrive in an age of media consolidation." 


Rollup

__Big Media might be necessary...__ to survive in a Big Tech world. The Facebook-Google-Amazon "triopoly" ate nearly [90%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/buzzfeed-nears-deal-to-go-public-via-spac-eyeing-digital-media-rollup-11624485898) of the digital-ad market last year, up from 80% in 2019. BuzzFeed thinks there's power in numbers, so it's rallying digital media companies under its umbrella to take on the triopoly. SPAC cash could help it make future acquisitions. But even with those, it's unclear if it can succeed long-term. 

BuzzFeed is going public via SPAC-quisition in a bid to compete with the "triopoly"

📵 Big Tech's big antitrust moment

__1 for Nadella, 0 for Bezos...__ Not Amazon, not Google, but *Microsoft* just [became](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/tech/microsoft-2-trillion-market-cap/index.html) the second American company to ever hit a $2T market cap. It's also the third company to *ever* join the $2T "Platinum Pegasus Club." __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ doubled its market value in just two years, partly thanks to corona-conomy demand. WFH and school-from-home boosted Microsoft's cloud services, gaming consoles, and PCs.

- __+65%:__ How much MSFT stock has soared since the beginning of March last year. 
- __+19%:__ How much Microsoft's sales grew last quarter compared to March 2020. 
- __$2T:__ MSFT is worth more than half as much as the entire German stock market. 

__To the Windows...__ Today, Microsoft will finally [unveil](https://www.axios.com/microsoft-windows-event-91399ef2-beaf-4afd-8b78-7d7bf78a116e.html) a new version of Windows OS, which is losing market share to Apple's Mac OS & Google’s Chrome OS. In 2010, Windows ran on 98% of the world’s computers — today, it runs on 73%. Windows made Bill Gates rich, but it's no longer Microsoft's biggest profit puppy. How Microsoft makes its $$$, by category:

- __Cloud = 36% of sales:__ Server products and cloud services are booming. Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue grew 50% last quarter. 
- __Productivity and Biz Apps = 33% of sales:__ That includes Office subscriptions. But the fastest growers were Dynamics cloud (+26%) and LinkedIn (+25%).
- __Personal computing = 31% of sales:__ Xbox was the fastest grower last quarter (+34%), Surface grew 12%, and Windows/PCs grew just 10%.  


Cloud

__Microsoft might not be as exciting...__ as some of its tech peers — but it's *necessary* for many of the world's companies. Instead of focusing on delightful features (think: emojis, filters, and eye-catching designs), Microsoft is focused on basic but crucial biz necessities. That's why so many companies still depend on it today. Now, business cloud and productivity tools are its biggest growth drivers. Those dull but necessary tools helped it notch a massive $2T valuation. 

Microsoft hits a $2T market cap, joining Apple in the "Platinum Pegasus Club" 

__"You're breaking up on the Zoom..."__ Tends to happen when you're on an RV rolling through a prairie. RV icon __[Winnebago Industries](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WGO)__ is the #2 motor home company by market share, after __[Thor Industries](https://robinhood.com/stocks/THO)__. Winnebago just dropped a record quarter, as you worked-from-Winnebago while crusing through America's heartland. 

- __Record quarterly sales:__ Winnebago pulled in nearly $1B last quarter, more than double what it made in the same quarter last year. 
- __Record backlogs:__ Backlog orders more than tripled from 2020, reflecting sustained strong demand. 

__Slack status: #vanlife...__ While the US economy reopens and domestic travel nears pre-pandemic levels, much of the world remains Covid-closed. Instead of European getaways, Americans are embracing  the great outdoors at home. Winnebago's president calls it “consumer engagement in the outdoor lifestyle." We call it van life. 

- __Overnight stay at Yellowstone...__ Perfect for the RV. 237M Americans visited national parks in 2020, and 15 parks set new visitation records. 
- __RV sales__ are [expected](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rv-rentals-during-the-pandemic-a-boon-for-vehicle-owners-in-2020-and-beyond-301189755.html) to have a record year, surpassing 2020 sales as demand continues. Some people are [buying](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rv-rentals-during-the-pandemic-a-boon-for-vehicle-owners-in-2020-and-beyond-301189755.html) motorhomes only to cash in on the rental opp (#AirbnRV). 

_Van life strong [Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

RVacay

__Investors want to see it to believe it...__ despite Winnebago's record quarter, record backlog, and an upbeat outlook for RVs, Winnebago’s stock is down 25% since March — so is rival Thor’s. Winnebago and Thor think RV'ing is a lifestyle, not just a pandemic trend. But as the US returns to normalcy, investors don't seem so convinced yet.

Winnebago drops a record quarter, but investors aren't convinced the RV boom will last

💼 Microsoft's $2T moment

__It's a party in the TSA...__ The number of people passing through US airport checkpoints is back to [75%](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) of 2019 levels, the highest since pre-lockdowns. A year ago, they were barely at 25% of pre-pandemic levels. Airlines are enjoying a travel comeback as Americans get vaccinated — but travelers are getting a side of problems along with their roasted peanuts. 

__Precheck won't help you...__ when the pilot is MIA. Airlines are dealing with a shortage of pilots and airport workers. Now that demand is back, airlines can't flip the pilot switch so quickly. Pilots who were furloughed or took leaves of absence during the pandemic have to be retrained — so do other workers, including those who check planes. The shortage is magnified when bad weather and other disruptions come up. That's resulted in:

- __Delays:__ Nearly [10K](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/business/airlines-airports-delays.html) flights were delayed in the US on Sunday. __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV)__ had the most delays, with 30% of flights running late. 
- __Cancellations:__ __[American Airlines](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__ had significant cancellations on Sunday, and proactively canceled 1K flights set for July.


_Didn't miss this part [MediaProduction/E+ via GettyImages]_

Delayed

__Prepare for bailout backlash...__ Besides the pilot panic, airlines are enjoying their comeback. And now they're raising prices: flight prices jumped 7% in May from April, and were up 24% from May of last year. Consumers are angry about the cancellations, delays, and higher prices. But they could be angriest when they remember that airlines got a $50B bailout from taxpayers. Politicians [sense](https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20210622&instance_id=33571&nl=dealbook&productCode=DK&regi_id=83712167&segment_id=61368&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fe3ee401f-c28b-5463-a8a3-3bc39fa4e6e6&user_id=05114d149fce45660cf01aea64f5af7e) public support for imposing additional costs on bailout recipients. That could include forcing airlines to keep flight schedules they say they can’t maintain, or raising wages. 

Airlines' Comeback: complete with cancellations, delays, and rising fares

__Loving the marble countertops...__ __[Blackstone](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BX)__ is a major investment firm, but it also knows a thing or two about landlord-ing: it owns $378B worth of real estate, including Chicago's Willis Tower and Vegas' MGM Grand. Now it's splurging on single-family homes. Blackstone is [dropping](https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-bets-6-billion-on-buying-and-renting-homes-11624359600) $6B to buy __Home Partners of America__, a company that buys and rents 17K+ homes. Home Partners also offers tenants a chance to buy their rental. ICYMI: home-buying is *trending*.

__Some like it hot...__ Housing market, style. Last year, US home sales soared at their fastest pace in 14 years. Fueling the wild demand: mortgages  are cheaper thanks to lower interest rates, and remote/flexible work is allowing people to move to the 'burbs. Recently, that's led to:

- __Record high prices:__ The median price for existing homes topped a [record](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/us-existing-home-sales-may-2021.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar) $350K for the first time last month, up 24% from last year.
- __Slower sales:__ In May, existing home sales [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/22/us-existing-home-sales-may-2021.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar) for a fourth straight month on sky-high prices and low availability (#house-shortage). 


__Blackstone's investment shows confidence...__ in the continued rise of the housing market. While sales are slowing, the market is still red-hot — and [home-lennials](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/O7yzw6jXShqJUuYBrv1Ox/articles/JhP43H0BbxOiUPoatWxvC/) are expected to continue fueling growth for years to come. But a surge could price out regular families, while driving up rent prices (higher rent = great for Blackstone). A number of factors could cool the housing market's rise, including interest rate fears, inflation, and rising prices. 


Blackstone drops $6B in a bet on the hot housing market — but it could cool 

 🛫 The big airline comeback

__Mine, uncrafted...__ China's not playing games. Bitcoin [plunged](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/21/bitcoin-btc-price-drops-on-china-crypto-mining-crackdown.html) to a two-week low yesterday after China cracked down on miners. Chinese authorities reportedly ordered a halt to crypto mining, forcing the shutdown of many mining "farms."  China already bans companies from offering crypto-related services — *but this crackdown is next-level*: 

- __Strike #1:__ An estimated ~90% of China's Bitcoin mining capacity has been shut down.
- __Strike #2:__ China set up "[snitching hotlines](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bitcoin-mining-china-crypto-america/2021/06/17/0a39c3a8-c903-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html)"  to report anyone pumping out BTC.
- __Strike #3:__  China urged __Alipay__ and other major banks to kill any crypto trading. 

__Much coin energy...__ An estimated 65% of global Bitcoin mining happens in China. Mining computers use [mountains](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4xclkSJaYAU12PaicjZrLh/articles/4OCWE9kGhme60DCcKsfIUl/) of electricity to validate transactions and mine new coins. China relies heavily on coal power, so that electricity burns *a lot* of "dirty" energy. Now, China is cracking down to help meet its climate goals. The authoritarian state also doesn't *love* the decentralized nature of BTC ([#digiyuan-only](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gmxJQUqpvzHWE4CeHvylQ/articles/1UVV5lKmuNvZyE2FiTurJg/)). 

- __Mass mine-gration:__ Miners have started [exiting](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/bitcoin-mining-china-crypto-america/2021/06/17/0a39c3a8-c903-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html) China to move operations to the US, where energy is cleaner but pricier. 
- __Already here:__ American mining companies, like __Riot Blockchain__ and __Marathon Digital__, have been growing. Riot's mining revenue nearly [10X'd](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_fb8837feff2d896c04dd67f9e3403854/riotblockchain/news/2021-05-17_Riot_Blockchain_Reports_Record_First_Quarter_2021__107.pdf) to $23M last quarter. 


Mined

__The digital is physical...__ Websites, photos, and docs that live in the cloud really "live" in massive server farms. Likewise, digital currencies like Bitcoin need swaths of computer networks to exist. A "mine-gration" from China, coupled with the growth of American miners, could bring industrial-scale mining to the US. That requires vast amounts of land, water, and electricity. While that could be good for mining companies, it will likely raise more enviro concerns. 


Bitcoin plunges after China cracks down on mining: mass "mine-gration" could be coming

__Return of the samples...__ Nothing sweeter than a free Lindt chocolate. While Amazon Prime Day(s) are in full swing, __Costco__ is still winning over hearts and shopping carts with its old-school approach. Online sales make up only 6% of Costco's total, because shoppers dig the in-store "treasure hunt"  (come for the TP, leave with a foldable grill). Now, the Disneyland of bulk retail is increasingly [appealing](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-21/millennial-home-buyers-costco-is-calling-you?srnd=premium&sref=q3KSFp38) to Millennials — especially first-time home buyers:

- __2M+ Americans__ bought homes for the first time last year. *Nearly 40% of those were Millennials*, the most of any generation. 
- __Costco is catering__ to Millennial homebuyers with a fresh offering of "healthy" options to stock their starter houses. Think: almond flour and organic applesauce for Baby #1. 

__Signature rosé...__ for the Millennial mom. Costco has a secret weapon that other food retailers envy: Kirkland. The private-label offers everything from vodka, to eggs, batteries, and toilet paper. Most Kirkland products are made by third parties. Read: shoppers can sneakily get brand names at off-brand prices. Kirkland coffee = Starbucks, Kirkland diapers = Huggies, Kirkland cran juice = Ocean Spray. 

- __Bigger than Coke:__ Kirkland did $52B in sales last year — *nearly $20B more than Coca-Cola*, and double Kraft-Heinz's annual sales. 
- __Bigger than cable:__ Costco memberships now exceed cable TV subscriptions in the US. Kirkland is a key driver of that success.

_The home-lennials are coming [Klaus Tiedge/Corbis via GettyImages]_

Rosé

__Home-lennials could be Costco’s 10-year growth driver...__ Older Millennials are moving to the 'burbs. Read: first baby, first home, empty cupboards. Read again: prime targets for Costco memberships. More than [one-third](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quicken-survey-shows-millennials-likely-to-flee-cities-over-the-next-year-301110777.html) of Millennials renting city apartments are considering moving away. The median age of a Costco shopper is 43. That's currently Gen X — but in a few years, it'll be Millennial. The suburban migration could have Millennials swapping Amazon carts for Costco ones. 