__Jerome puts on his Zoom face....__ We're imagining a "raining hundreds" background. Investors have eyes on the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting today, which is being held virtually. Wall Street wants to know if the central bank is prepared to wind down its *massive* pandemic bond-buying program, which has helped economic recovery. 

- __Since March 2020,__ the Fed has added trillions to the money supply through bond-buying. It's currently dropping a whopping $120B *per month* on  Treasury and mortgage bonds.
- __How it works:__ The Fed buys bonds from banks, and the new cash that banks receive flows through to consumers and businesses through loans, etc. 
- __Why it works:__ All that money helped bring us ultra-low interest rates during the pandemic, which boosted spending. Think: lower rates for mortgages and biz loans. 

__Inflated = the new bloated...__ The Fed's "easy money" policy has helped the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__ — a benchmark for US stocks — nearly double in value since March 2020. But as the economy swiftly recovers and prices rise (#flated), the central bank is [considering](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-72262cd28f438fc3c856661b82316ca1&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1630014377151000&usg=AOvVaw16ksF7kxEGIVhu03BFkE0Q) reigning in its policy *this year*. Notes from the Fed's latest July meeting suggest the economy is closer to achieving the Fed’s inflation and employment goals. 

- __Unemployment__ was at 5.4% in July, down from 10.2% a year ago — but it's still 2% higher than the pre-pandemic rate. Job recovery has slowed, despite record openings. 
- __Inflation:__ Consumer prices are up 5.4% from last year, and the Fed's ultra-low interest rate policies aren't helping.  
- __GDP:__ While the US economy is rebounding, many economists have [downgraded](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2021/08/26/economy-us-slightly-upgrades-gdp-estimate-last-quarter/5599916001/) their estimates for yearly growth as the Delta variant surges.


_Waiting for the Fed to text back like... [Image Source via GettyImages]_

Billions

__We're all in the same boat...__ The Fed, investors, and businesses are facing the same uncertainty with Delta. That's why the Fed might not share its tapering plans today — *or for months*. Since the Fed's last update: Covid cases and hospitalizations have [doubled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-variant-may-come-for-the-feds-fall-plans-too-11629389509), more companies and governments have re-imposed restrictions, and consumer spending and confidence have dropped. The Fed's not the only one wondering how Delta will affect recovery.

All eyes are on the big Fed meeting today, but we might not get a game plan for awhile 

__Slack was added to #Salesforce…__ and it’s blowing up the channel. Software giant __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM)__ raised its yearly earnings forecast on unexpectedly strong sales, and the stock popped 4% yesterday. Contributing to the growth:

- __Slack:__ Salesforce bought the office chat app, which has 10M+ daily users, for a whopping $27.7B last quarter.
- __#s:__ Slack is expected to generate just 4% of Salesforce’s revenue this year — but its sales last quarter grew *faster* than all of Salesforce’s major divisions.

__Counting heart reactions…__ Slack is central to Salesforce's strategy, because the future of work is trending hybrid. Nine in 10 companies plan to combine remote and in-office work, but only [a third](https://investor.salesforce.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/Slack-Supercharges-Salesforce-Customer-360-for-Sales-Service-Marketing-and-Analytics/default.aspx) feel prepared. Salesforce believes all businesses will need more remote capabilities. Salesforce believes its Slack-quisition will power:

- __Digital HQs:__ Salesforce integrated Slack with its existing service, marketing, and analytics software to help businesses keep track of customers and close deals all in one digital HQ.
- __Hybrid work:__ NBD if your vendors and clients are fully remote. Slack Connect, launched during the pandemic, allows cross-company collaboration. Usage boomed last quarter, as workers sent crucial docs and emojis to external partners.


Work

__Making remote feel close is key…__ Whichever company pulls it off could win the workplace software wars. Salesforce is betting big on Slack, while other biz software companies are launching remote-first tools: __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, whose Teams workplace comms platform has 250M monthly users, launched an employee experience platform to give remote teams an “integrated experience,” and __[Dropbox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DBX)__ revamped its virtual workplace to serve remote clients.

Salesforce thinks the future of work is hybrid — and wants it to happen over Slack

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

💴 All eyes on the Fed

__*Lots to unpack*...__ Creator subscription platform __OnlyFans__  is famous for #NSFW adult content, but it's been focused on growing its "SFW" creators (like: yoga instructors and Cardi B). Last week, OnlyFans [said](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.wsj.com/articles/onlyfans-to-ban-content-featuring-sexually-explicit-conduct-11629407757&sa=D&source=editors&ust=1629941495627000&usg=AOvVaw2Ar0PodEiQ8ffWPhAMcE8T) it would ban "sexually-explicit conduct" by October 1, citing pressure from financial partners. The bombshell decision drew [backlash](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/25/onlyfans-says-it-will-no-longer-ban-porn-after-backlash-from-users.html) from sex workers, who’ve fueled the platform's rapid growth. *Yesterday*, OnlyFans did a stunning 180:

- __OnlyFans scrapped the major policy change,__ saying it received assurances from its banking partners that'll allow it to "provide a home for all creators.”
- __In context:__ OnlyFans keeps 20% of subscription sales, and creators keep the rest. Creators have earned $5B+ on its platform — and 300 creators earn $1M+/year.

__The "vice" problem...__ OnlyFans is one of the most profitable Creator Economy platforms, especially since the pandemic. Within a year, it grew from 20M+ users to a stunning [120M+ ](https://www.businessinsider.com/onlyfans-lockdown-boom-transactions-hit-24b-revenue-up-553-2021-4)users. It raked in $375M in revenue last year, and is expected to hit  $1.2B in revenue and $417M in pre-tax profit this year. Despite those enviable numbers, OnlyFans has [reportedly](https://www.axios.com/onlyfans-investors-struggle-9cc92523-6607-40ad-9893-4175e7966b52.html) struggled to find investors. 

- __Many VC funds have "vice clauses"__ that prevent them from investing in industries like: tobacco, alcohol, drugs, porn, weapons, and sex-tech. That limits OnlyFans' fundraising potential.
 - __Vice clauses can also impact investment choices__ of public funds (think: mutual and pension funds), governments, endowments, and other institutional investors. That could hurt OnlyFans if it decides to IPO. 

__Zoom out...__ Vice clauses limit investment in many industries, and are designed to avoid risk. With OnlyFans, some financial partners are concerned about a potential for sexual exploitation of minors — and the legal liability that carries. __Mastercard__, __Visa__, and __Discover__ cut ties with __Pornhub__ last year after the site was accused of being complicit in trafficking child abuse imagery.


NSFW

__It’s hard to play both sides...__ The "vice" identity isn't something companies can dabble in without tradeoffs. For "vice companies," it's hard to please both investors and the community, since success is often rooted in the "vice." They have to plant their flags somewhere, and risk alienating either investors or users. OnlyFans tried to have both — that backfired, so it decided to take the risk with investors.


OnlyFans backtracks on its sex ban: why it’s hard for “vice companies” to play both sides

__YouTube: 15-minute killer ab workout...__ You've seen it 1000X. Shares of __[Dick’s Sporting Goods](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKS)__ jumped 13% yesterday, after the self-explanatory company revealed quarterly sales were 45% higher than *pre*-pandemic levels. During the corona-conomy, we abandoned gyms in favor of at-home workouts and park jogs. Dick's sales of workout clothes, sneakers, and golf clubs spiked. But even as gyms reopen, the athleisure lifestyle is sticking — and Dick's stock has more than doubled this year.

__Year(s) of the yoga mat...__ Retail spending is rebounding as recovery continues, and is on track to pass pre-pandemic levels. Part of the boost: some pandemic trends are still trending. Sales of activewear, athleisure, "comfort clothes," and sports gear are booming. 

- __Avoiding gyms:__ Sales of health and fitness equipment more than doubled from March to October, and the market is expected to continue growing in the coming years. 
- __Getting outside:__ Four in 10 former gym members plan to switch to running or outdoor exercise this year, according to a recent survey. 
- __Staying comfy:__  __[Urban Outfitters](https://robinhood.com/stocks/URBN)__ sales more than tripled last quarter, thanks to a big boost from its Free People activewear sub-brand, “Movement.” 

_Find me at the club [Westend61 via GettyImages_

Golf

__The future is active…__ and retailers are trying to keep pace. Companies that offer activewear lines or sports gear, like Urban and Dick’s, saw sales surpass pre-pandemic levels. Retailers that *haven’t* focused on athleisure haven't seen the same benefits: Sales at fashion-forward __[Nordstrom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JWN)__ were still below pre-pandemic levels last quarter. Now, Dick’s is [opening](https://www.dispatch.com/story/business/2021/08/06/dicks-sporting-goods-open-new-concept-store-polaris/5502656001/) a new outdoors-focused store concept this fall, and Urban plans to open 20+ new Movement stores this year and next.

Dick's Sporting Goods is thriving because the athleisure life just won't stop 

🎥 OnlyFans' "vice" problem

__Bought it on Insta...__ The ads know you so well. Two big developments dropped this week in the world of "social commerce" — aka: shopping through social media. __TikTok__ is testing "[TikTok Shopping](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/24/tiktok-expands-shopify-partnership-pilots-tiktok-shopping-in-us-uk-and-canada/)" tabs in North America and the UK through an expanded partnership with ecomm platform __Shopify__. Meanwhile, __Instagram__ is [launching](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-instagram-advertising/instagram-rolls-out-ads-on-shop-tab-globally-idUSKBN2FP18X) advertising on its Shop feature *globally*.

- __Instagram Shop__, which [launched](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7Fl0kcKPHzNEVEVwnee0Zp/articles/7GbosmnxcsEDfjk2yPdKh6/) last year, lets businesses set up digital storefronts on their pages. In some cases, you can pay directly through Insta with Facebook Pay. FB gets a small fee per purchase.
- __TikTok Shopping:__ Should've been TikShop (TokShop?). Shopify merchants with a "TikTok For Business" account can add a “Shopping” tab to their profiles and create mini-storefronts. __Kylie Cosmetics__ will be an early adopter. But shopping takes place in the merchant's Shopify-powered site. 

__"Link in bio"...__ *So 2020*. US social commerce sales are [expected](https://www.emarketer.com/content/social-commerce-surpasses-30-billion-us) to exceed $35B this year, up 36% from 2020. New shopping features from TikTok and Insta are fuel for the creator economy, which relies on affiliate sponsorships. TikTok Shopping will give Shopify merchants — and their influencer partners —  the ability to tag products in their videos. Instead of just posing next to a bottle of protein powder, you can also link it.


_"Hold on, let me shop this Tok" [Nick David/Stone via GettyImages]_

TikShop

__Social commerce = the friction-killer...__ from discovery to checkout. Our purchasing decisions are often influenced by social media — remove the friction, and ads become even more effective. You spot pleather boots in a post and buy them directly through Insta, instead of entering a Google rabbit hole. That seamlessness is extra-valuable for advertisers, which means social giants can charge even more for ads. That's why Twitter, Pinterest, and Snap are also doubling down on shopping features – think: branded makeup filters on Snap.

Tap-to-buy mania: TikTok launches Shopping, and Insta drops Shop ads

__Hold on to your cupcakes and car mufflers…__ There’s a new last-mile delivery service in town. Walmart is opening up its delivery network to outside retailers with a new program called GoLocal. The deets:

- __Retailers won’t need to sell in Walmart’s marketplace__ to use GoLocal, so even small shops can deliver products from store to customer. And don't expect those giant Walmart trucks: GoLocal is un-branded. 
- __Only Walmart workers__ will fulfill GoLocal deliveries — unlike existing Walmart delivery, which also uses third-parties like FedEx, Doordash, and Uber.

__Racing for the last mile...__ The same-day delivery market is expected to triple between 2020 and 2026. Amazon set the standard: Prime same- and one-day shipping was available for 72% of Americans in 2019. But Walmart has invested heavily in its same-day Express Delivery in the past three years. It now covers 70% of the US population. Here’s how the mega retailers compare:

- __Similar most of the way:__ Walmart and Amazon both operate massive ecommerce sites and shipping networks, and Amazon’s slowly expanding into IRL stores, where Walmart has long thrived. 
- __Different for the last mile:__ Walmart’s doubling down on last-mile delivery. But Amazon’s going the opposite direction — it shut down its delivery platform for retailers in 2020 and prioritized warehousing instead. 


Un-brand

__“Un-branding” can be big business...__ Corporate giants can use their massive footprints to help other businesses scale — and profit in the process. With its white-labeled delivery service, Walmart — the second biggest US ecomm retailer — will have a new revenue stream. Other big businesses also sell unbranded services B2B: Target sells delivery tools to 120 retailers, Zoom sells its video-conferencing tech to other apps, and DoorDash sells its backend platform to stores that want delivery services. 

Walmart opens its delivery network to mom-and-pop shops — because un-branding can be big business

🛍 TikTok Shopping has landed

__Feels like deja vu...__ It's not. The FDA granted full approval for __Pfizer__ and partner __BioNTech's__ Covid vaccine. Thanks to emergency use authorization, 201M people in the US have gotten at least one vax shot. Pfizer's is the first vax to gain FDA-approval — it was also the first to get [authorized](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/pU1g3dpFi4Omfdzze7Vk7/articles/7rFjfW440jpXRwFrc4Wvk8/) for emergency use in December. Pfizer shares spiked 4% on the news. Moderna, whose application for full approval is under review, also closed the day up 7%.  

__The shot is hot…__ While 73% of US adults are vaxxed, vaccine demand remains strong globally. Less than 2% of people in Africa are vaxxed, and many countries are still clamoring for vaccines. Meanwhile, vaccine demand is surging in states hardest hit by the Delta variant. Now, FDA-approval could boost vaccine demand even more:

- __Less vax hesitation:__ Many health officials believe full approval could encourage vax-hesitant people to get the shot. In a recent poll, 30% of unvaxed people said they’d be more likely to get a shot if it were fully approved.
- __More vax mandates:__ The full stamp of FDA approval will make it easier for businesses and other orgs to require shots. United Airlines, the Defense Department, and New York City schools are already mandating it for employees. 


__Covid vaccines are here to stay…__ and so is vax cash. Pfizer expects a whopping $33.5B in Covid vax sales this year, and that forecast came *before* it got full approval. Analysts expect that next year's Covid vax sales will significantly surpass 2021 levels, and remain strong for years.  Pfizer’s 2022 Covid vax sales are expected to be 70% higher than this year’s. And don't forget the booster shots: health officials recommend that Americans who got Pfizer or Moderna's shot series get a booster eight months after their second shot. 

It's official: Pfizer's Covid vaccine snags full FDA approval, setting the stage for more shots

__Just when you thought it was over...__ *Think again*. The CA gig-worker law saga has more sequels than *Fast & Furious*. On Friday, a California judge [ruled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/proposition-22-is-unconstitutional-california-judge-says-11629512394) that Prop 22 is unconstitutional and unenforceable. In November, CA voters overwhelmingly [passed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX/) the ballot measure, which has classified gig drivers as independent contractors.  

- __The most expensive ballot__ measure in CA history: __Uber__, __Lyft__, __DoorDash__, __Instacart__, and others spent more than $200M to support Prop 22. Uber and others say their drivers largely back the prop, but labor unions say it's a bad deal for workers. 
- __Next steps:__ Gig companies are appealing the ruling, and *won't* have to immediately reclassify workers. But it's a major wrinkle in their effort to preserve the gig model.

__9 to 5 at Uber Eats...__ Means no moonlighting for __Grubhub__. With Prop 22, gigs drivers gained new benefits like: health insurance if you work at least 15 hours per week, at least 120% of minimum wage, and 30 cents reimbursed per mile driven. If Prop 22 is overturned...

- __For drivers:__ Drivers would get full-time benefits (think: sick leave and PTO). But because they'd be employees, they would have to work a set schedule of hours, and could lose the flexibility to work multiple apps. 
- __For consumers:__ Expect even [higher prices](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-22/californians-face-higher-rideshare-bills-with-prop-22-reversal) and longer waits. To fund a more expensive workforce, companies would pass costs to consumers and may cut drivers. Ride-hail prices have already soared 53% in the first half of this year due to driver shortages and the new Prop 22 benefits. 

_When the Uber is 57 minutes away: Plan B [Westend61 via GettyImages]_

__The gig economy is at existential risk...__ If the CA judge's ruling is upheld, chronically unprofitable apps like Uber and DoorDash would likely become even *more* unprofitable. As the most populous US state, California is a critical market for gig companies — and its decision could shape gig law across the country. A Prop 22-like ballot will be voted on in Massachusetts next year. The outcome of CA's ruling could set a precedent. 

Prop 22 reversal: the future of the gig economy is up in the air (again)

🚗 DoorDash & Uber's worst nightmare

__Post-turtle neck era...__  Tomorrow marks the 10-year anniversary of Tim Cook becoming __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__'s CEO, replacing founder Steve Jobs. Jobs was a creative visionary who pioneered the revolution from the PC to mobile era. Cook has been more of an operational magician. But how has the tech giant changed under his reign? A big part of it is Cook's ability to *scale*. 

- __#s:__ 72M iPhones sold in 2011, vs. an estimated 240-250M in 2021. Since 2011, the number of App Store apps has more than quadrupled to 2M today. 
- __Top-selling smartphone:__ In 2011, it was the Samsung Galaxy SII — the iPhone 4 ranked 4th. In 2021, the top-four sellers are all iPhones.
- __Value:__ In 2011, Apple hit a $337B market cap, surpassing __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__ to become Earth's most valuable company. Today, it's worth $2.5T —  still the most valuable.
- __Products:__ In 2011, Apple unveiled the new iPod touch and iPod nano (#RIP). In Cook-era 2015 we got Apple Watch, followed closely by AirPods.

__Tim Cooking in the kitchen...__ iPhone is still the core of Apple, and brings in more than half its sales. But Apple's biggest shifts under Cook have been scaling services and elevating privacy.

- __Services:__ In 2011, Services consisted mainly of iTunes, App Store, and iCloud. Now, Apple's self-feeding ecosystem has expanded to include TV streaming, fitness, games, and even a services bundle, [launched](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1Y9lIHuvuotRAaGBx13qHH/articles/5EXUwgniIcrgHGoPpU0qe4/) last year. 
- __Privacy:__ Apple has become a leader in privacy — from Face ID to the latest iOS upgrade, which lets users decide whether to let apps track them for ads. But it's recently received unprecedented [backlash](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/05/apple-child-pornography-iphone/) over a new anti-child pornography measure.
- Through the App Store and its consumer-friendly devices, Apple has also contributed to the growth of other tech giants. *About that...*

_2031 vibes: "Find My Planet" [mikkelwilliam/E+ via GettyImages]_

Anniversary

__Tech has taken over the market...__ When Jobs was CEO, the top five most valuable companies in the Fortune 500 were: Exxon, Apple, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__, and __[Berkshire Hathaway](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BRK.B)__. Now, the top five most valuable companies are all tech: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ — and they make up [23%](https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-stocks-sp-500-51627312933?tesla=y) of the S&P 500's total value. Tech companies have contributed to an explosion of wealth. Think: jobs, apps, and soaring stock prices. But their immense scale and power has raised concerns among lawmakers and consumers, leading to growing antitrust measures around the world today.


10 years of Tim Cook: how Apple and Big Tech have evolved and taken over the market

__Drop the triple-shot latte...__  The cost of coffee beans has [jumped](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/business/coffee-prices-higher.html) 43% so far this year. An unusual frost in Brazil — the world’s #1 coffee producer — is contributing to soaring java prices. Companies know that consumers *hate* paying extra for the same products. Now, some java giants may consider "[swapflation](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1r3Y1V7zwkDmXk8zWPmz5L/articles/2ij2I19Scry2cpMvL3vRDY/)" to deal with rising costs. AKA: swapping out popular arabica beans for cheaper, but less premium, robusta beans. We could see it in other products, too. 

__Powell's party...__ might be nearing its end. To help the economy, the Fed has added trillions to the money supply through bond-buying sprees. That brought us near-zero interest rates during the pandemic, which helped boost spending. Think: lower rates for  mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. But as the US economy recovers and prices continue to rise (#inflation), the central bank is [considering](https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-72262cd28f438fc3c856661b82316ca1) pulling back on its economy-supporting policy later this year. 

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

__Loose-fit jeans = the new sweatpants...__ Retailers like __[Gap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GPS)__ and __[Nordstrom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JWN)__ boosted online sales last year, even though *total* sales slumped. As we leave behind pandemic PJs and return to stores for "going out" fits, clothing retailers have a shopportunity to boost sales online *and* IRL. We’ll see how that's panning out when Gap, Nordstrom, __[Abercrombie](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ANF)__, and __[Urban Outfitters](https://robinhood.com/stocks/URBN)__ report earnings this week.

__Dollar stores are on a roll...__ but it's not toilet paper. Last year, __[Dollar Tree](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DLTR)__ and __[Dollar General](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DG)__ thrived as we stockpiled TP, detergent, and $2 Cool Whip. But sales slumped last quarter, failing to keep pace with last year’s panic purchasing. Still, the dollar dynasties are doing better than they were pre-pandemic. We’ll see if they can keep the good times rolling — even without TP — when they report earnings on Thursday. 


Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Brakes:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/O8R5HCECdF2Z9XgDuAiGP/articles/3gQwb4cITkidP2hDTbPJpU/)__ A new investigation into __[Tesla's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ Autopilot feature may force the EV giant to stop “rounding up” in its marketing.
- __[Meta:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/PhMLZ9g0Tr6lipu2kAVK9/articles/5s5gUS6A80hsWzlO2rQq6Q/)__ __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ launched a Sims-like VR office that opens the door to a metaverse future (not just for work).
- __[Block:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6HKVGR7p5JnBXg3BYwTJPZ/articles/6eezqbsXycgqnof2NnSBv8/)__ US lawmakers are calling for a ’Tok block after China took a stake in __TikTok's__ sister company.


ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

🍎 Apple's 10-year evolution

__Your 3rd grade dream come true...__ Spending the entire day as an avatar — minus the desk job. Yesterday, __Facebook__ [launched](https://www.oculus.com/blog/workrooms/) an open test of a virtual-reality remote work app: "Horizon Workspaces." Think *The Sims* — but instead of swimming in giant pools and proposing to strangers, avatars are reviewing sales decks and doing accounting. Zuck's [avatar](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/19/facebook-vr-app-remote-workers/) is... interesting. 

- __How it works:__ You need a pair of $300 Oculus Quest 2 headsets to access the free workspace as an avatar — If not, you'll  appear as a videoconference square (#awk).
- __What you do:__ Meet in VR conference rooms with your avatar colleagues, collab on whiteboards and files, and bring your computer into VR as you sit in front of it IRL (#meta).

__Shoulda called it "Meta Meets"...__ Facebook calls Workspaces “a step to the metaverse,” which Zuck [believes](https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/mark-zuckerbergs-bet-on-the-future-of-facebook-is-virtual-reality-meetings-with-your-coworkers/articleshow/85458831.cms) is the future of the internet. Instead of something you look at on a screen, the metaverse is an internet you can be *inside of*. Think: hanging out in VR with your friends' avatars instead of DM'ing, and entering VR stores where you can shop "in person" and online *at the same time*. 

 - __FB__ has invested heavily in virtual and augmented reality, laying the foundations for its role in the metaverse. And it's not the only one...
 - __Roblox,__ the tween-favorite platform that allows users to build their own games, sees itself as a potential hub for immersive metaverse experiences like concerts and games.  
 - __Microsoft__ [intro'd](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1TtUXZyHvZ2SETOZOaUYq7/articles/4toGHHXozOhJJLODibxmNt/) Microsoft Mesh, a "mixed-reality" service that displays life-size 3D avatars and content through smart glasses.

_Good morning team, who wants a VR bagel? [Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

Sims

__The future of work could be meta...__ The metaverse concept [emerged](https://www.wsj.com/articles/roblox-facebook-see-the-metaverse-as-key-to-the-internets-next-phase-11629286200) from sci-fi novels like “Snow Crash” and “Ready Player One” — but the first place it could become reality is the office. Hybrid and remote-work environments are here to stay, and FB wants its metaverse to be a big part of that future. But a lack of trust in FB's brand could keep people skeptical. Plus, VR still requires expensive, and sometimes [problematic](https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2021/Facebook-Technologies-Recalls-Removable-Foam-Facial-Interfaces-for-Oculus-Quest-2-Virtual-Reality-Headsets-Due-to-Skin-Irritation-Hazard-Recall-Alert), headsets — which could slow or limit adoption. 


Facebook launches a Sims-like virtual reality office — but it's really a door to the metaverse

__Jack-o'-lanterns are back...__ with a vengeance. This week, __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__ put Halloween decorations for sale earlier than usual (think: 12-foot-skeletons) — *and said it [sold out](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/home-depot-sold-out-of-an-early-drop-of-halloween-decor-immediately.html) almost “immediately.”* But it's not all rainbows and candy corn:  Home Depot's shares tumbled Tuesday after it said sales are slowing quicker than expected, especially in the DIY department.

__Already picked out the X-mas tree...__  Pandemic-era House Hype is going through a makeover. People are showing signs of being less focused on painting and beautifying their new WFH offices and 24/7 biodomes. Instead, they’re focused on preparing for seasonal social events that didn't feel appropriate last year. The shift is already affecting businesses:

- __Done retiling the bathroom...__ after doing it five times. DIY sales are down, not just at Home Depot. Sales at home improvement-focused __Lowe's__ fell last quarter, and paint legend __[Sherwin Williams](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHW)__ came in short of expectations.
- __Ready to impress the neighborhood...__  __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ all [expect](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/home-depot-sold-out-of-an-early-drop-of-halloween-decor-immediately.html) a surge in spending on holiday decor this year. And sales at celebration-focused __[Party City](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PRTY)__ more than doubled last quarter from 2020. 

Decor

__House Hype just got *festive*...__ Pandemic trends aren't all disappearing; instead, they're evolving. As the Delta variant delays return-to-work plans, many people are (still) spending lots of time at home. But with [73%](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) of US adults vaccinated, people want this year to feel more “normal” than last. House Hype used to be about making houses more liveable — now, it’s also about making them more fun.


The seasonal House Hype has arrived: less paint and tiles, more $1K skeletons

👩‍🎤 Facebook's metaverse office 

__Not related to Don Draper...__ Canadian cannabis giant __[Tilray](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TLRY)__ is [dropping](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/cannabis-company-tilray-acquires-majority-stake-in-medmen.html) $166M for a minority stake in American pot retailer __MedMen__. Tilray is a weed cultivator, supplier, and distributor. MedMen is basically like an Apple store for cannabis. You order through sleek tablets on wooden tables, in [minimalist](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/medmen-dispensaries-lawsuit-scandal-marijuana-pot-822427/) stores with floor-to-ceiling glass windows filled with dozens of associates in MedMen tees. Instead of AirPods, you've got $30 elderberry weed gummies. 

__American clout...__ Tilray shares jumped 5% after the deal was announced. The investment would give Tilray a popular retail footprint in the US if cannabis is legalized at the federal level. Marijuana is legal in 18 states for recreational purposes, but is still viewed as a Schedule 1 drug by Uncle Sam — the same level as LSD and heroin. 

- __Hash it out:__ MedMen [operates](https://investors.medmen.com/home/default.aspx) 24 stores across CA, FL, NY, AZ,  NV, and MA. It did $157M in sales last year, but its quarterly sales are shrinking — and it's unprofitable. Still...
- __Tilray thinks the investment is worth it__: *"Once legalization happens, it gives us the potential to own a great company that we can take into the rest of the world.”* Key word: once — not if.  

_Just planting the weeds [Maskot via GettyImages]_

Weed

__Great opportunities require great preparation...__ and Tilray is planting the weeds for federal legalization in the US. Tilray thinks it's a “when, not if” situation. This year, it merged with Canadian __Aphria__ to create the world’s largest cannabis company — and expand its reach in Europe and the US, where more legalization is likely (another weed, planted). But until US legalization happens, growth will likely continue to be sluggish for pot companies. 


Tilray is buying a stake in fancy pot retailer MedMen, planting the weeds for legalization

__Jumping on the ban-wagon...__ The Chinese government has [taken](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/17/chinese-government-bytedance-tiktok/) a 1% stake and a board seat in the Chinese subsidiary of TikTok’s parent company, __ByteDance__. US officials have considered banning TikTok before — ex-President Trump issued an executive order last September to yank TikTok from US app stores, but President Biden revoked it. Now that China has a stake, one US Senator has [urged](https://www.reuters.com/technology/rubio-wants-biden-block-tiktok-after-chinese-government-takes-stake-2021-08-17/) Biden to block TikTok entirely.

__There’s a great divide...__ between Chinese and American social giants. Many Chinese social giants haven’t taken off in the competitive US market. Meanwhile, US companies like __Facebook__ and __Twitter__ *can’t* compete in China because they’re banned. ByteDance tried to have the best of both worlds: 

- __It launched two versions__ of the same social video app in the US and China — TikTok and its censored Chinese cousin, Douyin. 
- __Success came...__ In 2020, ByteDance's revenue more than [doubled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-owner-bytedances-annual-revenue-jumps-to-34-3-billion-11623903622) from 2019, and TikTok [overtook](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/TikTok-overtakes-Facebook-as-world-s-most-downloaded-app) Facebook as the most-downloaded app in the world.
- __So did scrutiny...__ ByteDance delayed its IPO amid China’s regulatory crackdown. Now the Chinese government's stake in the company may cause US regulators to consider new limitations for TikTok US.

__The TikTok threat has expanded...__ The US' original worry: that TikTok might share US data with Chinese authorities. This week, a group of bipartisan Senators [demanded](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/18/1028633650/senators-demand-tiktok-reveal-how-it-plans-to-collect-voice-and-face-data) that TikTok reveal how and why it plans to collect biometric data from its 100M US users. But there's a newer fear: that China could influence TikTok’s powerful algorithm to promote misleading info that advances its interests. Still TBD whether those concerns are warranted — but the scrutiny from lawmakers is real. 

China took a stake in TikTok’s parent — now some US lawmakers are calling for a ’Tok block

Bitcoin 

🍃  Tilray wants MedMen 

__Autopilot in the hotseat...__ Earlier this week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [launched](https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-autopilot-system-to-be-probed-by-u-s-auto-safety-regulator-11629116457) an investigation into __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__’s Autopilot feature. The NHTSA has the power to mandate car recalls — so all 765K Teslas sold since 2014 are now under scrutiny. Tesla shares skidded 4% Monday. The deets:

- __11 separate accidents__ will be considered in the investigation, including one fatality. All cases involve Teslas that crashed into parked vehicles while on Autopilot.

__Don't backseat drive...__ When there’s no one in the front seat. Tesla's been stuck in a traffic jam of at least 30 investigations since 2016. Earlier this year, Tesla recalled 285K+ cars in China due to a cruise control glitch — and 135K+ cars in the US due to touchscreen failures. But this is the first investigation focused on Tesla's *overall* Autopilot system. 

- __The reality:__ Teslas operate at Level 2 of 5 on the driving automation scale — aka: partial self-driving. Ditto for competitors __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, __[Daimler](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DMLRY)__, and __[Volvo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VLVLY)__.
- __The marketing:__ It suggests otherwise. Tesla [says](https://www.tesla.com/autopilot) its cars have “full self-driving capabilities." But it also says they still require "a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel.”
- __The customers:__ They sometimes treat Teslas like they're totally autonomous. Owners have been caught sleeping and even sitting in the back seat sans-driver. See: this [viral video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFtfJLi2aJA).

Auto

__Marketers sometimes "round up"...__ Earlier this year, Tesla walked back Elon Musk's exaggerated self-driving claims. In 2020,  German courts ruled that Tesla's use of the word "Autopilot" and other marketing claims were misleading. Now, the NHTSA's investigation could force Tesla to stop "rounding up" in its US marketing — or face a major recall.

A new investigation into Tesla's Autopilot could stop Elon Musk from "rounding up" 

__To the window...__ to the __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__. The retail giant [topped](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/walmart-wmt-earnings-q2-2022.html) earnings estimates last quarter as people flocked to its stores for back-to-school supplies and groceries — Walmart's literal bread and butter. US sales jumped 5% from last year to a *casual* $141B. 

- __Back-to-school:__ Kids who haven't seen their fifth-grade classmate IRL since third-grade stocked up on *Frozen* backpacks, Pokémon planners, and sparkly erasers. 
- __Back-to-life:__ Walmart says customers snagged items like luggage, party supplies, and clothes as they were “coming out of hibernation.”
- __Ads to match:__ Walmart's advertising revenue in the US nearly [doubled](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/08/17/wal-mart-inc-wmt-q2-2022-earnings-call-transcript/) (it sells ads on its website and app).

__Splurging on mechanical pencils...__ In the same period last year, bulky stimulus checks lifted sales despite Covid concerns — still, Walmart managed to *beat* those sales this year. That could partly be thanks to a "secret stimulus" that dropped before Walmart's latest quarter ended. 

- __Kid allowance:__ On July 15, the  US government started sending US parents $300 per month for each child they have as part of a boosted [child tax credit](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4UfptC7RMAEOo0YSfMmIZm/articles/9MKQo3q2RW7laXpPvRaf6/).
- __Like stimulus checks,__ these child tax checks will likely continue to boost spending — especially at fam-faves like Walmart, __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST)__, and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__.


_Nothing like the smell of freshly shaved pencils [GoodLifeStudio/E+ via GettyImages]_

Pencils

__Walmart is a proxy for US consumers...__ and their mood. Walmart is America’s largest retailer — and 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of one of its stores (wild). In March of last year, Walmart shoppers were stocking up on TP and canned foods. Now, they're splurging on suitcases, backpacks, and skirts. And despite surging Delta cases, Walmart says it hasn't seen a change in shopping patterns — or a return to hoarding. We’ll see if that changes as the Delta variant surges.  


Walmart’s “back-to-life” quarter: Why America's #1 retailer is a proxy for the consumer economy

🚗 Tesla's self-driving problem

__Legal thriller soundtrack…__ but make it surround sound. __[Sonos](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SONO)__ makes multi-room speakers to fill your Napa winery with lofi jazz. The Santa Barbara-based company uses smart tech for voice control and syncing of its $1.3K+ Surround Sets. Speaking of tech...

- __The story:__ A judge preliminarily ruled that __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ infringed on five of Sonos’s smart speaker patents. 
- __The backstory:__ In January 2020, Sonos [sued](https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/7/21055048/sonos-google-lawsuit-sues-speakers-assistant-amazon) Google for allegedly using its patented speaker tech — while undercutting Sonos's prices with cheaper speakers. 
- __The *way* back story:__ In 2013, Sonos shared the tech specs for its smart speakers with Google for a Google Play Music partnership. Sonos alleged Google stole that tech and used it in dozens of products.

__Cue the deep bass...__ As part of its suit, Sonos is asking for an import ban on relevant Google hardware — including Google Home smart speakers, Chromecasts, and Pixel phones. Those are made in China and shipped to the US for sale. But it's not Game Over *yet*: the International Trade Commission still has to decide whether to reverse or accept the judge's decision. That's scheduled for December 13th. 


_When the lofi beat drops [Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via GettyImages]_

Lofi

__Taking on Goliath is a big risk...__ that could have a big payoff. Sonos is worth $5B — Google is worth nearly *$2T*. By challenging Google, Sonos risks paying major legal fees and damaging potential partnerships with big companies. But if Sonos *wins*, it could force Google to pay licensing fees for every device that allegedly uses its tech. Sonos [claims](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/technology/google-sonos-patents.html) this suit is just “the tip of the iceberg,” estimating that Google has  infringed on 150+ patents. Sonos stock jumped 5% after the legal win. 

Sonos wins a preliminary ruling against Google — and it could be just "the tip of the iceberg"

__Dropped my double-shot latte...__ The cost of coffee beans has [soared](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/business/coffee-prices-higher.html) 43% so far this year, according to NYT. A combo of factors are making beans more expensive: 

- __Cold brew:__ An unusual frost in Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer — is expected to cause this year’s Brazilian coffee crop to drop a whopping 19% from last year.
- __Bitter brew:__  Political turmoil in Colombia — the world’s *third*-largest producer — caused bean output to fall 52% in May from last year.
- __Slow brew:__  Supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages have also slowed delivery times.

__Caffeine jitters...__  __Folgers__ and many independent coffee shops plan to pass on costs to consumers by raising prices. Meanwhile, __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__ and __[Nestlé](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NSRGY)__ buy their beans so far in advance that they won’t have to worry about price increases for at least a year. But they *still* [might ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/coffee-jolt-gets-pricier-as-costs-of-beans-labor-transport-rise-11628775001) raise prices (venti macchiato isn't safe). Besides hiking prices...

- __Java giants might consider "swapflation."__ We've seen it before: in 2012, the roaster for __Chock full o’Nuts__ [swapped](https://news.yahoo.com/2012-06-19-noticed-that-your-coffee-tastes-funny-heres-why.html) out popular arabica beans for cheaper, but less premium, “robusta” beans. Prices for arabica beans are [up](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/coffee-inflation-is-coming-to-your-cup-after-blow-to-top-crop?sref=q3KSFp38) 50% in the past 12 months.


Java

__“Swapflation” could be coming...__ and not just in coffee. Companies can deal with rising costs in three ways: raise prices (#inflation), shrink products (#shrinkflation), or swap ingredients (#swapflation). Companies know that consumers *hate* paying extra for the same products — so some may swap in cheaper ingredients to cover price hikes.


"Swapflation" could be coming: coffee is getting pricier — and possibly less tasty 

🎶  Sonos beats Google (for now) 

__Plenty of fish in the sea…__ More like plenty of pea protein. Plant-based foods have become so mainstream that alt-meat patties are regulars at Burger King, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Walmart.  

- __Oat explosion:__ The global market for plant-based foods could grow to [$450](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/17/faux-fish-looks-to-ride-the-growing-wave-of-alternative-meats.html)B by 2040, which would represent roughly a quarter of the $1.8T meat market.
- __Soy stars:__ The growth has been driven by alternative milk and meat, which together make up 55% of total plant-based sales. 
- But in the shadow of __Oatly,__ __Beyond Meat,__ and __Impossible Foods,__ another alt is growing fast: fake fish.

__Friend keeps telling you to watch “Seaspiracy”...__ as you inhale spicy tuna rolls. Alternative seafood is one of the fastest growing segments of the plant-based market. Think: tuna made from tomatoes, and artichoke crab cakes. Investment in US plant-based seafood hit [$70](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/plant-based-sushi-faux-fish-rattle-the-multibillion-dollar-seafood-market?sref=q3KSFp38)M in the first half of 2021 — as much as in the past two years combined. But it still makes up only $12M, or 0.1% of the $15B US seafood market. That’s partly because real seafood has a strong health halo. 

__Cry me a freshwater river…__ Big Food may have missed the fake meat boom, but it’s not about to miss the fake fish fiesta. 

- __Tyson__ invested in plant-based shellfish company New Wave Foods, which launched its seaweed based shrimp this year. 
- __Nestle__ launched Vuna, a plant-based tuna alternative, last year. It cited stats that 90% of global fish stocks are now fully or nearly depleted. 
- __Thai Union Group,__ which owns tuna legend Chicken of the Sea, already makes plant-based fish and crab, and plans to launch plant-based shrimp this year.


That first bite of faux fish [Westend61 via GettyImages]

__You can be late to the trend, but early to the opportunity…__ Big Food was late to plant meat and milk — but early to fake fish. There isn’t yet a dominant player in plant-based seafood, like there is for alt-meat and milk. Plus, the faux meat giants aren’t going after seafood yet. If companies can make plant-based seafood as tasty and nutritious as real fish, they could be early to a big opportunity.

Plant-based patties get all the love, but fake fish is growing — and Big Food wants fin 

__Green is the new black…__ Cannabis is on a tear — sales at the top 10 publicly traded cannabis companies more than doubled over the last year. Scotts Miracle-Gro, the garden company whose cannabis subsidiary boomed last quarter, launched a cannabis investment arm last week. The new division already invested $150M in a Canadian cannabis company. Also: last week, a $500M ecomm site Leafly announced plans to go public via SPAC later this year.

__After an infrastructure appetizer…__ it’s time to discuss the entree. Last week, a bipartisan group of Senators passed a historic $1T infrastructure bill to improve roads and rail, internet access, and EV networks. The tab will be partly funded by crypto taxes and Covid funds. But there’s a hook — House Dems plan to stall unless they can also tack on a $3.5T social and climate package. If the bills pass, they could kick off a new era of big government.

__The DIY boom is ending…__ but someone still needs to fix the faucet. DIY-mania powered strong 2020 sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s. But last quarter, sales of “pro” products for contractors exceeded sales from DIYers at both companies — and helped their sales continue rising year-over-year. We’ll see if their new focus on pros through everything from tool rentals to supply chain improvements has paid off when both companies report earnings this week.

__Shop ‘til the stimmies stop…__ After a spring of up-and-down consumer spending, retail sales [rose](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-0point6percent-in-june-.html) above pre-pandemic levels in June as people spent padded savings and leftover stimulus cash on electronics, cars, and online classes. But inflation, the spread of Delta, and the end of stimmy payments could dampen the buzz. We’ll get a pulse check on America’s shopping spree when the July retail sales report, which tracks retail and restuarant spending, drops on Tuesday. 

- __[Unleased:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/CoBbb3XOG07QxgjRD9qAY/articles/5jWelzvgjVxRngffky9wjf/)__ WeWork is partnering with Saks Fifth Avenue to launch in-store working spaces – this time it doesn't own the leases.
- __[Experiment:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6s2Q9yXESEe1smTaPJ4t57/articles/3aeXdG3lOjozOrw9o9aWcL/)__ Disney shares jumped last week after its theme parks returned to profit – but its real focus is Disney+ and its Great Media Experiment.
- __[#Benefits:](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6EL5TRTmp9geUpgsXeiK1l/articles/2vf0ghZ3cYccAbq8of8SuW/)__ Walmart and Target offer to pay 100% of college tuition for workers as companies amp up benefits to lure workers.
