__The biggest IPO...__ that never was. __Ant Group__ is the Chinese fintech giant that was *supposed* to have the largest IPO ever. In November, Ant was on track to raise $34B+ in its Shanghai and Hong Kong IPOs (at a huge $300B valuation). Ant's Alipay app offers every money service imaginable (think: payments, loans, insurance, and investing... *all in one*). It's massive, with *1B+ users*.

- __Strike 1:__ Last year, Ant's billionaire founder Jack Ma publicly [criticized](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/04/tech/jack-ma-alibaba-ant-group-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=At%20a%20conference%20in%20Shanghai,risks%20is%20to%20kill%20innovation.) Chinese regulators for stifling innovation in the financial industry.
- __Strike 2:__ Ant's blockbuster IPO was [suspended](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Y16VU6wsQpOaP5bwzUgFf/articles/10lyNbTzg1HbB3563ygUqe/) due to vague regulatory reasons. Then Ma [wasn't](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/66eEsAltTmjRV2qtUGM2Qk/articles/40dUNHXEy37uMuUculNMIK/) seen in public from November to January (odd). 
- __Strike 3 (The News):__ Ant will now apply to become a financial holding company overseen by China’s central bank — read: stricter regulation.

__Jack of all problems...__ China may have felt threatened by Ant's financial dominance ($17T in digital payment transactions *per year*).  Now, Ant will have to shrink its assets under management, and break an “information monopoly” on its vast consumer data. Ant is falling in line: it "will spare no effort in implementing the rectification plan.” But it's not the only one getting heat...

- __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ — aka: the Amazon of China — was just fined a record $2.8B by China’s anti-monopoly regulator. BTW: Alibaba was also co-founded by Jack Ma... and it owns 33% of Ant (#facepalm). 
- __Other Chinese tech giants__ are also facing fresh regulatory pressure: China recently [fined](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56410769) __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__, __[Baidu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIDU)__, __Didi Chuxing__, __[SoftBank](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFTBY)__, and others over anti-monopoly rules.
- __Also:__ China just launched its own digital currency, which could hurt Alipay (ICYMI: we covered that [here](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gmxJQUqpvzHWE4CeHvylQ/articles/1UVV5lKmuNvZyE2FiTurJg/)). 


Squash

__China's power > company's growth...__ China wanted to “[set an example](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/jack-mas-ant-group-to-become-financial-holding-company.html)” for regulation of the platform economy... and it did. Not even billionaire Ma or Alipay's 1B+ users could stop that. Now, analysts expect Ant’s profit potential to fall as it scales back. In China, these regulatory crackdowns could limit future innovation in tech. Abroad, they could make investors think twice before buying into Chinese companies. And other companies might think more carefully about building a presence there.

Ant, the biggest financial app in the world, gets "squashed" again 

__*Did you say, cheesy fiction?*...__ Close: *acquisition*. __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ is buying voice recognition company __[Nuance Communications](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NUAN)__ for a loud $16B. If investors approve, it'll be Microsoft's biggest corporate shopping splurge since LinkedIn in 2016 (price tag: $26B). Nuance shares popped 16% yesterday. The 30-year-old company sells AI speech recognition tools for doctors' offices, customer service calls, and voicemails. And get this...

- __77%__ of US hospitals and over [half](https://news.microsoft.com/2021/04/12/microsoft-accelerates-industry-cloud-strategy-for-healthcare-with-the-acquisition-of-nuance/) of US physicians use Nuance's solutions. Its tools listen to and intelligently transcribe your doctor‑patient convos.
- __Siri 1.0:__ Nuance was a Big Tech acquisition target for years. Its software formed the basis of Siri before Apple intro'd an in-house version. 

__(Doctor's) Office 365...__ Microsoft looked at industries ripe for technological innovation... and decided it's *bullish on healthcare*. That's why it'll use Nuance's tech in its cloud solutions for healthcare providers. The doctor-savvy AI tech level up its game in a fast-growing field: Nuance's healthcare cloud sales jumped 29% last year. And it'll double Microsoft’s total addressable market in the healthcare provider space to ~$500B.   


_Cloudy with a chance of $16B healthcare cloud_

Listen

__Max out the core competency...__ Microsoft is an enterprise software beast. But when it launched its old consumer voice assistant Cortana, it was competing with Apple's Siri, Amazon Alexa, and Google's Home assistant. When Cortana fell behind, Microsoft pivoted: instead of competing for consumers like us, it focused on businesses. With Nuance, it's investing in strengthening its key competency: enterprise. That boosts its competitive edge.

Microsoft makes its biggest splurge since LinkedIn (and it's all about healthcare)

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🐜 The biggest IPO, squashed again

__Sarah cast her ballot...__ and the votes are in. Fun fact: there are more __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ employees than Americans named Sarah. Now, a massive labor showdown at America's second-largest employer is making headlines (again). Amazon workers in Alabama just [voted](https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-amazons-alabama-union-vote-means-for-the-company-and-workers-11617787801) *not* to unionize their warehouse. It would've been Amazon's first unionized US warehouse. Some context:

- __Last month,__ Amazon warehouse workers in Bessemer, Alabama were pushing to unionize for job security and better working conditions. 
- __Amazon pushed back__ (think: anti-union bathroom flyers). It doesn't want to be legally required to bargain with the retail union over its workers' rights.  
- __Last week,__ ~71% of the Alabama workers who cast ballots voted *against* joining the RWDSU (Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union).

__Prime outcome...__ While Amazon says it "didn't win" because employees made the choice, it's a victory for the 'Zon. Union rules could've limited its freedom to quickly hire (or cut) workers, and its ability to automate (think: more robot-hiring). On Friday, Amazon shares jumped 2% to their highest level in months. Why some workers voted "no"...

- __Unnecessary middleman:__ Workers who voted against the union said issues could be resolved within Amazon, without the union middleman. 
- __Unnecessary dues:__ Some didn't see a benefit in paying dues to a union. Amazon says it already offers competitive benefits and wages.

Vote

__The pushback isn't over...__ Blue-collar unions have been falling out of favor in the US: the unionization rate fell from 35% in the mid-1950s, to 11% in 2020. This vote seems to confirm that trend. But it’s not the end of the labor pushback against Amazon. Labor activists are already looking at other methods to challenge Amazon’s practices. And they could get a boost from legislators: politicians on both sides of the aisle are eager to reign in Amazon’s power, and many are advocating for better conditions for workers. Think: better hours [and](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/mar/11/amazon-delivery-drivers-bathroom-breaks-unions) bathroom breaks. 

Amazon emerges victorious from its historic labor battle against unionization

__Bringing S3XY back...__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ shares ticked up for the week after it delivered a record ~185K cars last quarter. That's more than double its deliveries from the same quarter last year (when Covid hit), thanks to healthy demand from China. Still, competitors in the side-view mirror may be closer than they appear: it's [losing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/dXjXBUtnIIx60nq4PmLF7/articles/2e4xQmjj3i18XCcn0DYijD/) market share to EV rivals.

__Forgot what a waistband feels like...__ __[Levi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEVI)__'s sales fell 13% last quarter because ripped sweatpants are the new ripped jeans. But the stock *jumped* 9% for the week, since Levi's boosted its sales and profit outlook for the first half of the year. Levi's thinks you'll be "revenge spending" on denim for outings, and expects sales will return to pre-pandemic levels by October.

Highs

Who's up...

__Unvaxed...__ __[AstraZeneca](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AZN)__ is causing some vexation... that's preventing *vaccination*. Last week, European regulators [said](https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-restrictions-pile-up-complicating-shot-roll-outs-11617901430?mod=business_lead_pos4) there might be a link between AstraZeneca's vax and rare (but sometimes deadly) blood clotting. Now: Australia, Italy, Spain, the UK, and others are restricting the rollout of its shot. 

__*Wrong direction*...__  Real estate tech firm __[Compass](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COMP)__ watched its stock plunge 14% since it IPO'd last Thursday. The Softbank-backed startup is the second-largest residential brokerage in the country — and the housing market is thriving thanks to ultra-low interest rates. But some investors [see](https://www.curbed.com/2021/04/compass-real-estate-ipo.html) a basic old brokerage model behind Compass' charming techy exterior. 


Lows

...and who's down

__*Stories we're watching:*__

- __The corporate tax debate...__ The tax filing deadline was extended to May 17 (eyy). But for corporations, the headache is just starting. The Biden admin plans fund its $2.3T infrastructure [proposal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5LFeKLcW6vcwl0ortNgrtm/articles/4n7AMG2fFNs2TmR0EXgTgO/) by raising corporate taxes. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the hikes would bring home ~$2T in overseas profits. To keep the US [attractive](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/1d7eiIZp8iwgUI9aKXGIQZ/) to corporations, Yellen has been pushing for a *global* minimum corporate tax rate. It's working: now the G-20 [aims](https://www.wsj.com/articles/g-20-to-seek-agreement-on-global-minimum-tax-rate-by-mid-2021-11617807018) to agree on a global minimum by mid-2021.

- __The rise of digital currency...__  China became the first major economy to [launch](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gmxJQUqpvzHWE4CeHvylQ/articles/1UVV5lKmuNvZyE2FiTurJg/) an e-currency: the digital yuan (#digi-yuan). Unlike crypto, digi-yuan is state-backed. Unlike cash, it's fully traceable. The wildest part: Beijing is testing digi-yuan expiration dates to encourage people to spend, and could use it to automatically fine people for rule-breaking. Beyond China, digi-yuan threatens the global dominance of the US dollar. Now the US is more seriously [exploring](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/27/op-ed-a-digital-dollar-would-help-the-us-and-its-allies-keep-china-in-check.html) its *own* digital currency. So are 60+ other countries. 

__*What's dropping:*__

- __Banks kick off earnings season...__ Wall Street's finest, including __[JP Morgan Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__, __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__, and __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__, all report this week. Banks' performance will be compared to a year ago (aka: the quarter ended April 2020). Back then, banks [added](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7AbTHa6Ld095hkHZCRzEaL/articles/6MiIgW9CSp3vQEIYRasNPN/) billions to their reserves to prepare for pandemic loan losses (like mortgage defaults). By April, Chase had set aside $8.3B. Banks are expected to release more reserves as the economy recovers. That could lift their results. 

- __Coinbase goes public...__  The largest crypto exchange in the US plans to go public on Wednesday via direct listing. It'll be the first crypto exchange to go public in the US, at a time when investors have been pouring into crypto. __Coinbase__ thrived last quarter, estimating $1.8B in revenue from January to March — *more than it made in all of 2020*, and 9X more than the year-ago quarter. Coinbase's huge growth highlights the "[seasonal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4ivhnY1RscwdC1MNfKSQqi/articles/3D0DnltBHdA072YBLL7koC/)" nature of its biz. 

- __Delta reports earnings...__ Since mid-March, pandemic travel has been [notching](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) record highs, with 1M+ people taking off their watches for TSA each day. __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__'s Thursday earnings will give us a window seat into how airlines fared over the last quarter — and whether people are really "revenge spending" on travel during the vax rollout. 

Zoom Out

Coming up this week...

_Banks about to drop the earnings anchor_

📦  Amazon's union "victory" 

__Free samples are back...__ __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST)__, the Disneyland of bulk retail, just dropped its March sales numbers. Sales growth accelerated from February, jumping 18% compared to March of last year — impressive, since that was the month when 56-packs of TP were more cherished than gold. While pandemic hoarding season has passed, the bulk love has not: Costco's 807 warehouses brought in $18B in sales from March to April this year. 

__Not just 20-pound salmon...__ Packaged food is Costco's literal bread and butter, but it also has "ancillary businesses"  (read: side-hustles). These include gas stations, which make up 9% of Costco's yearly sales. Gasoline = a convenient perk that lures Costco members to shop more frequently. Stop for the gas, stay for the Costco Muffins (and vice versa). But oil didn't shine last quarter...

- __As demand for gas fell__ from December to February, gas prices fell 10% on average. Related to that...
- __Costco's quarterly gas sales__ by volume dropped 9% from 2020 as people drove less (and online-ordered Kirkland coffee pods, instead).


_Costco-sized samples or nothing_

Gassy

__Costco has a "gas paradox"...__ No matter which way gas prices move, it kind of loses either way: When gas prices rise, so do Costco's sales numbers. But its profit margin generally *falls* — since it's spending more on gas, it keeps less in profit. Its gas biz is also generally less profitable that its other businesses, so the more gas it sells, the more its overall profit margin dips. On the flip side: when gas prices fall, so does sales growth. Costco believes gas stations build loyalty and attract customers — but long-term, it'll have to decide if the "gas paradox" is worth it.


Costco's sales are rising, but it has a nagging gas problem

__Sounds like an organic food company...__ actually an autonomous truck startup. San Diego-based __TuSimple__ is planning to go public, [targeting](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tusimple-ipo-idUSKBN2BU1N1) an $8B valuation. TuSimple's autonomous trucks have already hit American roads for testing (with human supervision). It wants investors to know it has a lot more on its TuDo list:

- __TuSimple is developing Level 4__ (aka: highly automated) self-driving semi trucks with __[Navistar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NAV)__, slated to enter production in 2024. 
- __It launched a self-driving freight__ network partnership with __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__, which is also one of its investors (ETA: live by 2024).  

__A truckload...__ There’s a lot of innovation happening in trucking. Two key themes for the truck fleets of the future: electric and self-driving. On the electric side: __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, __[Nikola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKLA)__, and __[Volvo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VLVLY)__ are a few companies working on electric semi trucks. On the autonomous side: TuSimple, Mercedes-owner __Daimler__, Google's __Waymo__, and Volvo are covering self-driving semis. The global truck freight market is worth $4T, and there's a big opportunity for disruptors:

- __Electric Pros:__ EV companies have the power of the Green Rush (and green policies) behind them. Plus, a recent study shows electric semis will soon compete economically with diesel trucks.  
- __Autonomous Pros:__ Self-driving truck companies say they'll cut labor costs, reduce accidents, and increase efficiency for long-haul trips. Think: fewer exhausted drivers... and fewer Amazon drivers peeing in [bottles](https://www.cnet.com/news/amazon-apologizes-says-peeing-in-bottles-thing-is-actually-a-thing-for-its-drivers/). 
- __*But*:__ 3.5M+ people work as truck drivers in the US, and wide-scale automation could significantly cut jobs.


Trucked

__Trucks are the backbone of the online economy...__ The growth of ecommerce, plus trends like next-day shipping, are boosting demand for trucking (and trucking innovation). But plenty of challenges remain. On the electric side, there's the issue of charging times and #RangeAnxiety. On the autonomous side, there's the risk that these new technologies won't gain acceptance from the public or regulators. There's also the chance that these developing technologies won't work. Even TuSimple notes these as some of its biggests risks ahead. 

Self-driving truck startup TuSimple is IPO'ing — and trucking is having a techy moment

🚛 Self-driving IPO 

__Coin, based...__ The largest crypto exchange in America is scheduled to go public next Wednesday via direct listing (sorry, IPO). __Coinbase__ will list its shares (directly) on the Nasdaq, becoming the first publicly-traded crypto exchange in the US. Coinbase thrived last year as investors poured into bitcoin. In 2020: it made $1.2B in revenue, and its first-ever annual profit of $322M. But it just [shared](https://investor.coinbase.com/news/news-details/2021/Coinbase-Announces-First-Quarter-2021-Estimated-Results-and-Full-Year-2021-Outlook/default.aspx) some quarterly estimates that make those numbers look like BTC circa 2018: 

- __$1.8B:__ Coinbase's estimated revenue for the first three months of 2021 — aka: *more than all of 2020*, and 9X more than the year-ago quarter.
- __$730M-$800M:__ Its estimated profit for the first quarter — aka: more than double last year's earnings.

__Satoshi would be proud...__ whoever he/she/they are. 12 years have passed since the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first block of the bitcoin chain — and crypto is more relevant now than ever. Coinbase expects that it has a whopping 56M verified users (6.1M of which are trading monthly). 

- __~$2T:__ The total value of the crypto market has already [doubled](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-05/crypto-market-cap-doubles-past-2-trillion-after-two-month-surge?sref=q3KSFp38) since January, when it first [topped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3LgF2GHrBcJKBJ4WJf1iwx/articles/2nXdL69aReUxvgeSTBY2ox/) $1T.
- __$223B:__ The estimated value of crypto assets that Coinbase has — or around 11% of the whole crypto market.


__Coinbase's numbers highlight a "seasonal" effect...__ Coinbase's seasonal biz has nothing to do with ski lifts or white-sand beaches. A ski resort thrives in winter — Coinbase thrives on crypto buzz times. As bitcoin plunged in 2018, Coinbase lost [70%](https://techcrunch.com/2021/03/25/will-fading-yolo-sentiment-impact-robinhood-coinbase-and-other-trading-platforms/) of its monthly transacting users. Before 2020, it had never seen a profit. As crypto dominated the conversation this year, Coinbase estimates it made more in three months than in all of 2020. Unprecedented crypto season = unprecedented earnings. Because of its reliance on fees from user trades, its fortunes can rise and fall with the crypto weather.

Coinbase is going public next week – and it just dropped some major numbers

__Influencer. Artist. Force of Nature...__ The Creator Economy's Insta bio (don't forget the sponsor link). Like the rest of us, celebs/influencers/creators stayed home in 2020. Concert venues, comedy clubs, and film studios were closed. To cash in on their talents, creators went full DTA — *Direct-to-Audience*. Now, companies that help content creators directly monetize their work are thriving. And the venture capital cash is following:

- __Patreon__, the subscription site that lets you pay your favorite YouTuber, just [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/creators-platform-patreon-valued-at-4-billion-in-its-latest-funding-round.html) $155M at a $4B valuation — up more than 3X from September 2020.
- __Cameo__ is the startup that lets you request personalized vids from celebs (like Kevin from *The Office*). It [hit](https://www.axios.com/cameo-unicorn-fundraising-566e58d6-9374-4706-8b11-1be4f76a233b.html) a $1B valuation last week after a $100M fundraise, joining Club Unicorn.
- __Substack,__ a platform for writers to publish paid email newsletters, is [reportedly](https://www.axios.com/substack-andreessen-horowitz-newsletter-36cb98ea-a7b3-43b1-883a-fa45586eaad4.html) raising $65M in fresh funding at a $650M valuation. 
- __Clubhouse,__ the audio social network that loves tech chat rooms, [reportedly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-finance-breakingviews/breakingviews-capital-calls-clubhouses-vip-ambitions-idUSKBN2BU2CL) might raise money at a $4B valuation (4X its January value).

__Shoutouts mid-live stream...__ Fans love feeling connected to their favorite creators, and want to support them. That's great for Creator Economy startups. Not-so-great: *where* fans connect doesn't matter as much. Really not-so-great: Big Tech is copying Creator Economy features. 

Create

__Creator Economy startups should consider merging...__ because Big Tech is onto the trend. Just a few examples: __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__, __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __LinkedIn__, and __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ are all working on Clubhouse rivals. Twitter [acquired](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7Diuno0ArouMGsyNQkshkC/articles/73dVpRGQ9Foe8OjLlbQg6e/) a Substack-like paid newsletter company — and plans to integrate it into Twitter. If Creator Economy startups merged to offer an all-inclusive platform for interacting with creators, they might stand a better chance against Big Tech. We call it... “Creators Inc.”

The Creator Economy gets paid: Patreon, Cameo, and Substack's mega-fundraises

_The Creator Economy intensifies_

💰 Coinbase drops big numbers

__Leading yuan...__ China just [created](https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-creates-its-own-digital-currency-a-first-for-major-economy-11617634118?mod=hp_lead_pos5) its own digital currency: the digital yuan (#digi-yuan). It's the first major world economy to launch an e-currency. China isn't just putting cash into a virtual bank account — it's minting cash *digitally*, turning legal tender into lines of code. For each digi-yuan it issues, it essentially cancels a paper yuan. 

- __State-backed:__ Unlike a cryptocurrency, digi-yuan is a state-backed currency controlled by China's central bank (like how the US $ is backed by the US gov't and controlled by the Fed). 
- __Fully traceable:__ Unlike crypto and cash, there's no anonymity with digi-yuan. The Chinese government knows where your yuan has been.

__More money control...__ *more control*. Beijing is testing digi-yuan expiration dates that could encourage people to spend within a certain time frame (to support economic stimulus). China uses hundreds of millions of facial recognition cameras to surveil and fine citizens for things like jaywalking. With digi-yuan, it could automatically draw the fine money from people's accounts. 

- __*Companies are worried*:__ Digi-yuan transactions settle instantly. That could threaten the fee-reliant business models of payment companies like __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__, which can profit off transfer times. In China, digi-yuan could crush __AliPay__ and __WeChat__, which are used by billions to make payments.
- __*The US is worried*:__ Digi-yuan threatens the global power of the USD, and could soften the effect of US sanctions (especially on China). That's why the US is considering a digital currency of its own — so are 60+ other countries. 


__Digi-yuan = a threat to the US dollar....__ The USD is currently the [Superman](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4ogc6lVdR6XOMD2eU3NQcI/articles/4tXfBbA0fHrtQFfTkjI5ht/) of global currency. Its stable and reliable rep has made it the world's "reserve currency" for international purchases (think: Canada buying oil from Mexico... in US dollars). The USD is used in 88% of foreign exchange trades — the yuan is used in only 4%. That global currency power makes US sanctions a nightmare for countries and individuals who get frozen out. Now that China is positioning the digi-yuan for international use, that could present an attractive alternative to the USD for sanctioned countries.... And for billions of low-income workers who don't want to pay fees when they transfer money to family abroad. 

China creates a revolutionary digital currency (and the US is worried)

__Forget the hot towel...__ Flashback to December 2019: the travel industry is booming. Flights are so packed you can barely snag a seat to visit grandma in Rome, *Georgia*. Flash forward to mid-pandemic: even Rome, Italy has no takers. On April 15 last year, only 90K people passed through TSA checkpoints... 97% fewer than pre-pandemic. Now...

- __Air travel is rebounding:__ TSA traveler volumes are at pandemic highs, down just 35% from pre-pandemic levels. With the vaccine rollout, that's expected to climb. 
- __Business travel isn't:__ [According](https://www.axios.com/bookingcom-ceo-glenn-fogel-business-travel-recovery-d8263f86-762d-4167-bee6-86a581ec137c.html) to __[Booking](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BKNG)__'s CEO Glenn Fogel, "the share of business travel will be forever lower than pre-pandemic." Mic drop.

__Goodbye, in-flight champagne...__ hello $5 André bottle. After Zooming-from-home for over a year, companies are asking themselves questions like: "Does Carla really need to shake hands with Frida over lobster in Singapore to make the $1M deal happen?" Many are saying "no" —  and that's a big problem for airlines. 

- __Business travelers bring in 75%__ of airline profits, though they make up only ~12% of all passengers. Leisure travelers often pick the cheapest flights (four-hour Dallas layover, why not?). 
- __Business travelers go for the most *convenient* flights,__ which are generally the priciest. And since it's on the company card, it's no sweat. 


Peanuts

__Investors *aren't* making pre-pandemic comparisons...__ Pre-corona, airlines were riding a  streak of record profits. In February 2020, __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ was so profitable that it [paid](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6wRGgx7QknYZXmDyA2zTy9/articles/4mOiuwQwp60nQ7F33CMMXz/) out $1.6B in profit-sharing bonuses to employees. Then the pandemic hit, and airlines erased years of gains with their ginormous 2020 losses. Still, Delta and __[American](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__ shares are only down less than 13% from late January 2020 — and __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV)__ stock is *up* 13%. Investors are seeing the cabin half-full: they're looking past the pre-pandemic norm, and focusing on the emerging recovery.

Business travel may never recover — but investors are seeing the cabin half-full

_The Rome meeting, brought to you by Zoom meeting_

🇨🇳 China's digital currency  

__ICYMI...__ Georgia made big changes to its voting laws — and they've  received a lot of pushback. In case you didn't have time to read the 98-page law, we've highlighted a few key changes:

- __New ID requirements__ for absentee voters. [Like](https://www.wsj.com/articles/georgia-election-changes-signed-into-law-by-governor-11616715033?mod=article_inline): providing their driver’s license number, the last four digits of their social, or some other form of accepted ID to request ballots.
- __Shortened absentee voting:__ Absentee ballots can be sent out only 29 days before an election, down from 49 days.
-  __Expanded weekend early voting__, requiring at least two Saturdays (up from only one weekend day).
- __Guaranteed (but limited) drop boxes:__  Now, each county must have at least one absentee drop box. But the law limits how many boxes each county can have, how long they can be open, and where they can be located.
- __No hand-outs:__ The law makes it a misdemeanor to hand out “any money or gifts," including snacks and water to people standing in line to vote.

__Back to the pushback...__ While GOP lawmakers say the law is necessary to restore confidence in Georgia's elections, Democrats say it'll restrict voting access for underrepresented voters — especially people of color. Now, [dozens](https://www.axios.com/georgia-voting-restrictions-microsoft-corporations-57f321c3-f449-41c0-858e-02006d017768.html) of execs at America's biggest companies are speaking out against the law, including: __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__,  and __[American Express](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AXP).__  __Patagonia__ compared the laws to Jim Crow bills. And Georgia's biggest corporations are getting vocal:

- __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL) CEO Ed Bastian:__ “The entire rationale for this bill was based on a lie: that there was widespread voter fraud in Georgia in the 2020 elections. This is simply not true.” 
- __[Coca-Cola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO) CEO James Quincey:__ The Georgia law is "wrong and needs to be remedied, and we will continue to advocate for it both in private and now even more clearly in public."


__Silence is no longer an option. Neither is inaction...__ Last year, we [wrote](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7gqswmVojTVAwxoi4AyfDv/articles/69m6uDAmNzTcLDko3aNntx/) that 2020 was the year when “no comment” was no longer an option for companies. While 2020 demanded a position, 2021 is demanding action. 72 Black execs have called on corporations to oppose voting restrictions — which have been proposed in dozens of other states, too. The MLB said it would move the All-Star Game from Atlanta in protest. And companies like __[Dell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DELL)__ and __[American Airlines](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__ are already condemning a restrictive voting bill that's advancing in Texas. Companies' action against voting restrictions could set new expectations for how they respond to other key civic issues, too.


Georgia's new voting restrictions spark major pushback from corporate America 

__This just in: a S3XY update...__ __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ delivered a record ~185K cars in the first three months of the year, [beating](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-kicks-off-2021-with-rising-deliveries-11617368680?mod=tech_lead_pos2) expectations. That's more than double the # of cars it delivered in the same quarter last year (when Covid hit and factories stalled). Despite global supply chain shortages, it's also slightly up from the *previous* record-breaking quarter, thanks to strong demand from China. Shares jumped 4% on the news.

- __~99%__ of Tesla deliveries last quarter were of the $35K+ Model 3 or the $50K+ Model Y crossover (aka: its more affordable models).

__Profit is getting Musk-ular...__ so is competition. Before 2020, Tesla was struggling to post a profit. *In* 2020, it had its first full profitable year. *Now*, it's expected to post a $470M profit for the first quarter of 2021 (earnings drop in a few weeks). While Tesla's profits are solidifying, OG carmakers’ electric lineups are, too. __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__, __[Volkswagen](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__ ([Voltswagen](https://www.motortrend.com/news/volkswagen-voltswagen-april-fools-day-prank-media-analysis/)?), and __Renault__ have been leveling up their EVs... and [stealing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-new-reality-of-tough-competition-11615478406) market share from Tesla.

- __Europe:__ In 2020, Volkswagen beat Tesla to become the top-selling EV maker in Europe. While EV registrations in Western Europe more than 2X'd, Tesla registrations fell 11% — and its market share plunged.
- __US:__ Tesla's EV market share fell from ~79% in 2020, to ~69% this February. The same month, Ford's Mustang Mach-E made up 12% of all-electric vehicles delivered.
- __China:__ Tesla is growing fast, but so are its Chinese rivals __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, __[Xpeng](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XPEV)__, and __[Li Auto](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LI)__. Their sales have surged this year along with Tesla's. 


Compete

__Tesla has reached escape velocity...__ Now that it's profitable, its next challenge is battling rivals. For years, Tesla faced virtually no competition. Now the competition has never been tougher... so it's shifting focus. This year, Tesla is aiming to open its first factory in Europe — aka: the world's largest EV market — to gain a stronger foothold against global rivals.


Tesla hits a car delivery record, but it's facing record competition

_Mustang Mach-E or Mach-Elon?_

🇺🇸 Corporate America pushes back

__The I-90 needs a spa day...__ More like a spa decade. Last week, Biden [unveiled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-set-to-unveil-2-trillion-infrastructure-plan-11617181208) his long-awaited $2.3T infrastructure plan. TLDR: give America's old infrastructure a major facelift. It's currently [rated](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/u-s-infrastructure-gets-c-says-engineering-group-trump-s-n1259432) a C- (passable, but not LinkedIn-able). The plan also seeks to make America as green as the inside of a perfectly ripe avo. Some highlights:

-  __$621B for transportation__ projects. Including: repairing 10K bridges, and modernizing roads, airports, and 20K miles of highways. Also: building a network of 500K electric vehicle chargers by 2030. 
-  __$400B for long-term care__ facilities for the elderly and disabled.
-  __$300B to boost manufacturing__ and make the US less China-reliant, including strengthening the chip supply chain. 
-  __$213B__ to build and update affordable housing, and $100B to  modernize schools. Plus: $100B to bring high-speed broadband to all Americans.

__Like mink eyelash extensions...__ this makeover is *pricey* — $2.3T over eight years. It would be the [biggest](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/) federal investment program since the '60s Space Race. Biden is trying to get the plan approved by summer. But that could be tough in the narrowly divided Congress... 

- __The plan would be paid for over 15 years__ by raising corporate taxes, including bumping the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. Republicans cut it to 21% from 35% in 2017. 
- __Pushback:__ Republicans support infrastructure investments, but [aren't](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2FGYY02td4t3rp9KjKvLQM/articles/1d7eiIZp8iwgUI9aKXGIQZ/) fans of tax hikes. While the GOP worries the proposal is *too* splurge-y, some Progressives say it isn't big enough.


_Extreme makeover, US edition_

Build

__The US economy is at a crossroads...__ No infrastructure pun intended. Covid expanded the government's role in American lives (think: historic spending on the #StimulusTrilogy). One year and $5T+ later, the pandemic is waning... and America is at a crossroads. If Biden's plan passes, it would chart a post-pandemic future in which Uncle Sam plays a major role. These unprecedented investments could spur sustainable economic growth and help reduce inequality. On the flip side, higher taxes [could](https://taxfoundation.org/biden-corporate-income-tax-rate) mean lost profits for companies, which could affect wages and growth. 

Biden's $2.3T makeover plan: what’s in it, and why it could reshape America's future

__Call of Duty *who*?...__ __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ scored a major contract to provide augmented reality headsets to the US Army. It could be worth ~[$22B](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/microsoft-wins-contract-to-make-modified-hololens-for-us-army.html) over 10 years — more than double the Pentagon "JEDI" cloud contract it [won](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3LqtV85M89Jc6D6iWOYgE0/articles/4oud1BIj8oUwneA9uooyDi/) less than two years ago. The software giant will deliver 120K custom headsets based on its HoloLens AR tech. The headset is a long way away from Office 365: it allows soldiers to fight and train more effectively, overlaying holograms like maps in their field of vision. Microsoft shares jumped 4% on signs it can generate significant $$$ from futuristic products that take years to develop.

__If IPOs were graded...__ online learning platform __[Coursera](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COUR)__ would've passed. Coursera stock jumped 17% for the week, after the nine-year-old company went public on Wednesday. It offers online classes and degrees from 150 universities, lowering costs and barriers to education. As we schooled-from-home during the pandemic, Coursera's 2020 sales [soared](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/31/coursera-ipo-cour-begins-trading-on-the-nyse.html) 59% from 2019 (but it's still unprofitable). It now has 77M "Learners," *30M* of which joined during Covid times. Off-campus, 25% of Fortune 500 companies use it for employee professional development. As tuition prices soar and tech takes over, e-learning could continue to grow in the post-pandemic world. 

__*Accio pad thai*...__ __Deliveroo__ is the UK's __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__, except most of its "drivers" ride bikes with your tikka masala on their backs. The __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__-backed food deliverer was one of Europe's most-hyped IPOs of 2021 (key word: was). Shares [plunged](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/deliveroo-ipo-what-primarybid-retail-investors-plan-to-do-next.html) 26% during their first day on the London Stock Exchange. Deliveroo has been facing pressure  over gig workers’ rights. Investors are worried it might have to [reclassify](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1pA68KIKChD9WMr3DJ2OMP/articles/2sYAJhcq3cv7kMzg2aLfHE/) its UK gig drivers as "workers" with benefits — like __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ recently did. That could keep Deliveroo from delivering profits anytime soon.

__Joined the margin band...__ Banks had a [bad](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7z4xFSKJjgTlxUhJDduXWw/articles/63FBQzM7ir89SIKh2sFQCe/) week, thanks to an investment firm that couldn't meet its margin calls. __Archegos Capital Management__ borrowed billions of $$$ to trade with. When the value of its holdings fell below margin requirements, the banks said "put up more money or sell your positions." Archegos said "can't/won't." That left the banks that lent it money exposed to [billions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-archegoss-epic-meltdown-11617323530) in losses. __[Credit Suisse](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CS)__ stock sank 17% for the week, __[Nomura](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NMR)__ dropped 19%, and __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ and __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__ fell ~5%. Retail investors were affected, too. Now "family offices" like Archegos might get more oversight.

🥑 Biden's $2T makeover plan 

__On the (block)chain...__ is the new off the chain.  Over the past year, __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ has ~9X'd in value as corporate and retail investors have poured into crypto. In January, the crypto market hit $1T in total value (mostly bitcoin). Now, the mainstream-ification is intensifying: Venmo-owner __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__, which has a whopping *377M* active accounts, is embracing the crypto life.

- __"Checkout with Crypto":__ Yesterday, Paypal [officially](https://investor.pypl.com/news-and-events/news-details/2021/PayPal-Launches-Checkout-with-Crypto/default.aspx) launched the service in the US, allowing users to pay with crypto at  online stores.
- __29M:__ In the coming months, PayPal will expand crypto checkout to [29M](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currency-paypal-exclusive-idUSKBN2BM10N) merchants. Customers with PayPal digital wallets can pay in bitcoin, ether, bitcoin cash, and litecoin.
- __BTW:__ __[Visa](https://robinhood.com/stocks/V)__ also just [announced](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currency-visa-exclusive/exclusive-visa-moves-to-allow-payment-settlements-using-cryptocurrency-idUSKBN2BL0X9) that it'll allow people to use the cryptocurrency USD Coin (a US dollar-backed stablecoin) to settle payments.

__Paying with crypto...__ but *not really* paying with crypto. Customers' crypto holdings will be converted into fiat currencies (like US dollars) at checkout. It's kind of like selling a fraction of your BTC, then using the sale money to buy a rice cooker. Merchants don't actually get paid in crypto — and that's way safer for them, since crypto is so volatile.

- __For merchants:__ Imagine if __[Adidas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ADDYY)__ was selling a hoodie for $50, and you bought that hoodie with a (tiny) fraction of bitcoin. Now imagine if that tiny fraction of bitcoin was worth only $20 the next day. Adidas lost $30 on that bit-transaction.
- __For buyers:__ Imagine if you bought a $58K car with one BTC, and the next day that same BTC was worth $60K. You would've lost $2K in value. If the value of BTC plunged to $56K the next day, you would've saved $2K. Not super practical either way.


_When the check comes but they don't take litecoin_

Coin

__BTC is still mostly viewed as a speculative investment (not a currency)...__ It's too volatile for most to use it as currency, which is why PayPal is converting it (and why Visa is only allowing a stablecoin). It's also why __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ — which now lets people  directly buy cars with actual bitcoin — has instituted a [30-minute](https://www.coindesk.com/tesla-bitcoin-payment) purchase window. Given BTC's surge this year, some investors also see more potential upside in holding on to it rather than using it for purchases. But as we've seen in the past (see: 2018), bitcoin has a big potential downside, too. 

PayPal launches cryptocurrency payments (the Crypto Mainstream-ification intensifies)

__Jersey Shore ...__ *but it's a clean energy reality*. The Biden admin just [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/29/fact-sheet-biden-administration-jumpstarts-offshore-wind-energy-projects-to-create-jobs/) ambitious plans to increase America's offshore wind energy. That includes a massive wind farm off the New Jersey coast, which the White House is already taking steps to approve. Picture: dozens of massive spinning wind turbines in the Atlantic Ocean. President Biden's goals for this initiative:

- __10M__ homes powered by wind energy by 2030
- __77K jobs__ created to support building wind farms 
- __78M__ metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions/year avoided
- __30 gigawatts__ of offshore wind power capacity — right now, the US is expected to have less than 20 GW by 2030 (so 30 is ambitious) 

__Vineyard Vines...__ and Vineyard Winds. Right now, the US only has [two](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/climate/biden-offshore-wind.html) tiny wind farms (near Rhode Island and Virginia). But there are 13 offshore wind projects under federal review, including "Vineyard Wind." If the proposal gets green-lit, 84 turbines would live (rent free) off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard. This month, the Biden admin took a crucial step toward [approving](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/climate/biden-offshore-wind.html) a review of Vineyard Wind, Americas' first large-scale offshore wind farm. 


Gusty

__Government priorities = corporate opportunities...__ Biden's "Build Back Better" plan [proposes](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/6FAZxow6cfIKFXsmBw8RJ2/) $2T for clean energy innovation and infrastructure. The White House estimates that $12B worth of investments *per year* would be needed to hit the 2030 wind targets. That could be a big opportunity for wind energy companies. Like: __[GE](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GE)__ (which is [testing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6kLH8dVkTILF9DDv2h7lL0/articles/2FCiqJHT4fUWlrwBmkRNOe/) a monster-sized offshore turbine),  __[NextEra](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NEE)__ (North America's largest generator of renewable wind energy), and __[Vestas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWDRY)__ (a Danish turbine manufacturer).  

The Biden admin wants to power 10M US homes with offshore wind turbines

💰  Bitcoin's rice cooker moment 

__The i-banking equivalent...__ of defaulting on your mortgage and getting foreclosed on: getting your multi-billion dollar positions sold off after missing a margin call. Trading on margin = trading (partly) with borrowed money (usually from a broker). Margin call = when equity in your margin account falls below a minimum level, and the lender asks you to put up more of your own cash or sell positions to mitigate risk. They can happen when the value of holdings in a margin account plunges. 

- __Call:__ Last week, a bunch of big banks told a large US hedge fund ([reportedly](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/credit-suisse-exits-positions-with-hedge-fund-warns-of-losses.html): __Archegos Capital Management__) that it needed to put up more $$$ to keep its positions. 
- __Response:__ Archegos basically said "IOU but ICPU" (I can’t pay you). AKA: it defaulted on the margin call, leaving the banks that loaned it money exposed to billions in losses. 
- __Result:__ Banks started selling off Archegos' positions to meet the minimum equity requirements for the margin account (and recoup some of the losses).

__It's a cascade effect...__ This big margin default is trickling down from the fund to banks to regular investors. For banks: this could mean billions in losses. __[Credit Suisse](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CS)__ and __[Nomura](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NMR)__ warned of significant hits to their quarterly financials — both stocks plunged as much as 15% yesterday. Now, banks' damage-control is causing collateral damage: retail investors.

- __Last week:__ __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__, Credit Suisse, and others quickly dumped a bunch of stocks tied to Archegos, forcing it to liquidate nearly [$30B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-nomura-says-u-s-client-owes-it-2-billion-shares-fall-15-11616992085?mod=hp_lead_pos1) worth of positions.
- __That selloff caused many of those stocks to fall__ — including __[Viacom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VIAC)__, __[Discovery](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DISCA)__, __[Tencent](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TCEHY)__, and __[Baidu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIDU)__ — even while the broader market rose. Viacom has plunged a whopping 30% since Friday.


Borrow

__High roller, high risk...__ Investment banks like Goldman lend companies billions in cash and stocks — and they make billions from these positions. Trading on margin means greater potential gain, but also much greater potential losses (that can mount fast). Before Monday’s warning, Credit Suisse said its pretax profit in January and February was the best in a decade. Now it could face billions in losses, because it may not have hedged its risk enough. 

Big banks could lose big bucks after a major hedge fund defaulted on margin calls

__Came for the free Terra chips...__ stayed for the all-inclusive resort. __[JetBlue](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JBLU)__ is known for its East Coast routes and unlimited free snacks (shoutout mini choc chip cookies). Now, it wants to Expedia-fy itself with a new travel booking [site](https://www.paisly.com/about) called Paisly. JetBlue flyers can book hotel rooms, rental cars, and even theme park tickets through the site. JetBlue plans to expand it to vacation rentals, too.

- __"Vengeance Vacays":__ As the vaccine rolls out across the US, pandemic travel has been [notching](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) records. JetBlue is investing in this new product to capitalize on all the pent up travel that could be coming, after a year of roundtrips to the fridge.

__Like a red-eye to Miami...__ The travel booking market is already crowded, with companies like __[Expedia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EXPE)__, __Priceline__, and __[Kayak](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BKNG)__. But JetBlue thinks *your* ticket is *its* ticket to success. 

- __Customization is key:__ Paisly uses your JetBlue flight info to make personalized suggestions, so you don't have to open 27 tabs and keep re-entering your flight dates. 
- The name was [inspired](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210325005615/en/) by paisley patterns, "symbolizing how Paisly’s travel suggestions are unique to each customer" (and we thought it was just a Millennial hook). Customers also earn TrueBlue rewards points for booking through the site. 


_When they run out of Terra Blues chips_

Terra

__Platforms = the greatest love/hate relationship in business...__ Nonna's Pizza Shop loves that people discover its marinara through DoorDash — but hates paying DoorDash a commission. Airlines love that Expedia helps you snag their $356 LAX-JFK flight, but *hate* giving Expedia a cut. JetBlue would rather keep you on its own website. Paisly adds that all-in-one convenience, making direct booking more appealing. 

JetBlue is Expedia-fying itself with a new travel booking website

☎️ Big banks' big margin call

1. __Biden's "New Deal"....__ Since President Biden's [inauguration](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/49RzO2EFs5wK6FlcAGzWGy/), one major theme has emerged: *spend big on America*. Biden's ambitious "[Build Back Better](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/6FAZxow6cfIKFXsmBw8RJ2/)" plan involves proposed investments at a scale we haven't seen for decades. On the "Build Back" side: a $1.9T [stimulus](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/VcXib5c8iwx7WvC2RdU9C/articles/5BY7nmhrMARFVO8RCsWEZi/) to speed up recovery — plus, a "Buy American" executive order to [boost](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/18OQONWGOCQr3BPWg5Pk03/articles/3jah5iD0LYNNhuXY04QpYJ/) purchases of US-made goods and services. On the "Better" side, the Biden admin is [crafting](https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-officials-put-together-3-trillion-economic-plan-11616443881) a massive infrastructure package that could cost $3T. It includes spending on roads, bridges, and clean energy infrastructure. Now, economists are [predicting](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/VcXib5c8iwx7WvC2RdU9C/articles/5BY7nmhrMARFVO8RCsWEZi/) a much faster recovery than previously expected.

2. __The Swinging Bull Market...__ This year, the only question asked more than "did you get vaxed" is "*are we in a bubble*?" The stock market has [continued](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7eawMInFcJedKi1Rjr2ZsD/articles/RiJoFnQ3EGCoi4s1E5c0p/) its surge, with the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__ and the __[Dow](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/13urVTf3GSQYdsr7Eq5fHL/what-is-the-dow/)__ hitting fresh records this month. But there's a key difference between this quarter and last year: as the economy recovers and interest rates [rise](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/TkemicSGU43NTUB9d1ASr/articles/2mJPn77i6fUo7xq3qNVfjA/), investors are moving away from tech  and into "Recovery Stocks" (aka: [cyclical stocks](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/6SSoCuDTYUitHFQrcPb8Yp/what-is-a-cyclical-stock/#:~:text=A%20cyclical%20stock%20is%20a%20stock%20whose%20value%20rises%20and,stocks%20generally%20decline%20in%20value.)). These are stocks in industries that tend to do well when the economy is growing (and vice versa). Think: travel, construction, retail, and banking. The cyclical-heavy Dow is up 8% this quarter — the tech-heavy __[Nasdaq](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/)__ index is up barely 2%.

3. __Crypto "Mainstream-ification"...__ Cryptocurrencies and alternative assets reached a peak of social relevance. In January, bitcoin hit its "[big $40K](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3LgF2GHrBcJKBJ4WJf1iwx/articles/2nXdL69aReUxvgeSTBY2ox/)" record, pushing the total value of the crypto market above $1T for the first time. It continued surging through March, as corporate investors like __Tesla__, __MassMutual__, and __Square__ [bought](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7tG94Z14uUwB4l1unOOkH/) in.  Retail investors poured into crypto too, on apps like __Robinhood__ (aka: us) and __Coinbase__ (which is now going public at a $68B valuation). __Paypal__ said it will let users shop with crypto — and Tesla will now let you buy a Model 3 with bitcoin.  Meanwhile, the [NFT craze](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4CMp4ZxaXNDVcia7phbTi8/articles/2dLrCxa5wrlsuga9kmuKtF/) underscored the power of the blockchain, and an appetite for alt investments. 


Themes

The Big Picture: three key themes that defined January to March

-  __143M:__ Covid vaccine doses administered in the US to help stem a pandemic that has taken ~2.8M lives worldwide. 
-  __$1.9T:__ The size of the stimulus package that [passed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/VcXib5c8iwx7WvC2RdU9C/articles/5BY7nmhrMARFVO8RCsWEZi/) in March — more than twice as big as the 2009 financial crisis package. 
-  __6.2%:__ The national unemployment rate in February, down from nearly 15% in April 2020 — but almost [double](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/zVG8BBoAxAmMC9XSil04c/articles/6oRNWLHX5ImjkATSKIBZu3/) pre-pandemic levels.
-  __$162B:__ The record amount raised by companies that went public this year. Only $37B was raised in the first three months of 2020. 
-  __225:__ The number of [SPACs](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/mxUoK0QpIE1Y8bSNoVpQM/what-is-a-special-purpose-acquisition-company/) that have gone public this year (nearly four/weekday). They’ve already raised [more](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/business/WeWork-Spac-ipo.html) than they did in all of 2020.
-  __1.685%:__ The 10-year Treasury yield (the interest rate the US government pays to borrow money), which has [tripled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/R1vyWz38Uu6QsAteWoFzk/) in a year.
- __$69.3M:__ How much an NFT of a digital collage [sold](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/11/976141522/beeple-jpg-file-sells-for-69-million-setting-crypto-art-record) for at a Christie's auction, setting a crypto art record (*by far*). 


Numbers

The Numbers: seven big numbers that defined the 1st quarter

1. __The "Revenge Economy"...__ is this the quarter the world returns to "normal"? For a year, sweatpants replaced shopping, screens replaced travel, and microwaves replaced restaurants. Thanks to all this non-spending (plus stimulus checks), Americans have socked away [$1.5T](https://www.axios.com/economy-savings-americans-money-wealthy-efd12c61-c587-4669-b7e7-32ce38ef74f4.html) in excess savings. Consumer spending tanked in 2020, but it’s expected to spike in the summer and fall. As life slowly returns to semi-normalcy, we're seeing leading indicators of the "revenge spending" economy. Since mid-March, pandemic travel has been [notching](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) record highs, with over 1M people passing through TSA check points each day. "Revenge spending" outside the home on things like vacays, concerts, dining, and (non-stretchy) clothes could be coming. 

2. __The Bull or Bear Market...__ Will the bull market continue? The pessimist case: interest rates have [risen](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7eawMInFcJedKi1Rjr2ZsD/articles/RiJoFnQ3EGCoi4s1E5c0p/), the new $1.9T stimulus is sparking inflation fears, and Big Tech is losing its coronaconomy edge. And with the new Dem-controlled government, tech [might](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2Z4BofvGDzgoroXZ4OTaiL/articles/75lgUHK9VCoHmFBsxK4D6C/) see more aggressive regulation.  Tech stocks carry massive weight, so a move away from them could depress the market. The optimist case: the Fed says it won't raise rates any time soon, the $1.9T stimulus could bring [faster](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/VcXib5c8iwx7WvC2RdU9C/articles/5BY7nmhrMARFVO8RCsWEZi/) economic healing, and more than 25% of Americans have been vaccinated. Also: infrastructure investments could boost cyclical stocks longer-term, lifting the market.

3. __The Future of Labor...__ The pandemic has exacerbated income inequality — will reopening help narrow the gap? America is waiting for unemployment to snap back to pre-pandemic levels (3.5%), but this'll likely take longer than three months. 2.5M+ women [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4FiPxYkU4FGEKs36P1LNJJ/articles/4kp1BqJkQIJqk2dJ3iMTuU/) out of the labor force between February 2020 and this January — will they return to work? Wages, unions, and WFH are also top of mind: The Biden admin is [trying](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7lIjj1BcdPQ6YavUzzl7AS/articles/2pJzCBY02k6kKdeKYGgSBd/) to raise the federal minimum wage to $15/hour, but it wasn't included in the last stimulus — will we see any federal minimum wage increases? Will there be more major pushes for unionization, like we're [seeing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2ObuixsZ1Fn2mCLQnOBLrW/articles/2KXfHSBO7K9bQnKHCZoiUm/) now at Amazon? Will companies return to the office, or will a hybrid WFH model become the norm? 