__Shoot your shot...__ __[Johnson & Johnson](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JNJ)__ was the tortoise in the race for an FDA-authorized Covid vaccine, coming in 3rd after __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ (#1) and __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ (#2). So far, Pfizer's vax has been the most administered: 17.6M Americans have been fully vaxed with Pfizer, 15.6M have been fully vaxed with Moderna, and only 640K have been fully vaxed with J&J. Buuut...

- __J&J could catch up quick:__ It's one shot, unlike Pfizer's and Moderna's (two doses weeks apart). It can be stored at fridge temp, vs. sub-zero temperatures for the mRNA ones.
- __President Biden__ just [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/politics/biden-johnson--johnson-merck-vaccine/index.html) plans to purchase 100M more J&J vaccine doses. The (less high-maintenance) vax could [help](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6jwYdiy4al8n5v0GOdIik/articles/7kSxhWesI8SzTyVJS53x2B/) speed up national vaccination.

__But J&J *won't* be profiting...__ The 1B doses that it's on track to produce this year would generate up to $10B in sales. But unlike Moderna and Pfizer, J&J has pledged to sell "at cost" for emergency pandemic use (read: no profit). While J&J *stock* hasn't received a big vaccine boost, its reputation likely has. 

- __Big Pharma = not popular:__ Pre-pandemic, the pharmaceutical sector was ranked as the least-liked industry in a US Gallup poll (womp). Only 27% of Americans rated it positively — an all-time low.
- __The profit-chasing bad rap__ comes from things like the opioid crisis and sky-high, rising drug prices (example: Mylan [6X'ing](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/09/21/mylan-ceo-heather-bresch-epipen-congress-house-testimony/90773250/) EpiPen prices by 2016).
- __The US spends more__ per person on healthcare than any other developed country — partly thanks to higher drug prices. That, plus public anger, gets lawmakers' attention. 


_I can feel your halo_

Halo

__J&J could get a big "halo effect"...__ from Congressional and public heat — while doing a good thing. Lawmakers have been trying to reign in pharma prices. Pre-pandemic, the House [passed](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/democrats-passed-a-bill-that-would-transform-the-cost-of-prescriptions-in-us) the "Lower Drug Costs Now Act" (self-explanatory). But it didn't get through the Senate. The pharma industry has spent billions on lobbying and campaign contributions to avoid profit-crushing regulation. But since the pandemic, 40% of Americans have a more positive view of the pharma industry. J&J could get the *biggest* "halo effect," thanks to its no-profit approach. 


Instead of profit, Johnson & Johnson gets a "halo effect" from its vaccine

__Onboarding must’ve been fun…__ Carol Tomé became CEO of the world’s largest package delivery company in June last year, right at the height of the delivery frenzy. Her new company was also gearing up to distribute vaccines around the globe to curb a deadly pandemic. Tomé is the first woman to run __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__ in its 113-year history, and one of only 30 female CEOs of S&P 500 companies. She’s also the first “outsider” to serve as UPS’ chief executive. 

__Rising to the challenge…__ After 18 years as CFO at Home Depot, where she helped the retailer emerge from the financial crisis, Tomé [brought](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ups-boss-preaches-the-power-of-no-11614335402) her strategic leadership and number-crunching skills to UPS. Born in Jackson, Wyoming as the oldest of four, Tomé learned to hunt and fish as a child. That resourcefulness might’ve prepped her to wrangle the challenge of coronaconomy shipping:

- __+32%:__ Total US online retail spending soared to $792B last year.
- __24.7M:__ How many packages UPS delivered per day (yearly total: 6.3B).
- __$85B:__ UPS sales, up 14% from 2019. Amazon accounted for ~$11B of that.

__Focus on the bottom line…__ Companies can maximize profit in two ways: raising prices and cutting costs. Tome did both to protect the biz, as soaring demand strained UPS’ capacity and raised costs. As we were WFH’ing, business shipments plunged while consumer shipments soared (so much TP). Those extra home stops meant higher costs for UPS. Tomé’s approach: less is more.

- __UPS started focusing on more profitable deliveries__ (like heavy packages). It canceled some shipping contracts that were no longer as profitable, evaluating corporate customers on value — not volume. 
- __It placed stricter shipping limits__ than ever before to avoid overwhelming the network. And it increased prices on big retailers whose volumes spiked (think: surcharges of up to $4 per package). 


Profile

__Saying “no” can be good…__ especially during periods of upheaval. For years, UPS has chased package volume to fill its network. But Tomé’s pivot to a “less is more” approach seems to have paid off: last quarter, UPS posted the highest quarterly operating profit in its history, with record profit in each segment. And despite wild demand, UPS delivered ~97% of packages on time during the holiday season, compared with ~95% for FedEx,  and ~93% for USPS. Since Tomé took over on June 1, UPS stock is up ~70%. 

UPS CEO Carol Tomé conquers the delivery frenzy by doing less (better)

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

✨  The vaccine halo effect 

__The numbers tell a story...__ In February last year, the US unemployment rate was 3.5%, WFH was an ultra-rare luxury, and "stimulus" was an SAT vocab word we didn't recognize. The economy didn't know what was about to hit it. In numbers:

- __22M__ US jobs were [lost](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/zVG8BBoAxAmMC9XSil04c/articles/6oRNWLHX5ImjkATSKIBZu3/) from March to April, as unemployment hit 14.7%.
- __30__ major retailers declared bankruptcy, and [100K+](https://fortune.com/2020/09/28/covid-buisnesses-shut-down-closed/) small businesses permanently shut down.
- __$5T__: Stimulus spending from Congress, including the upcoming $1.9T bill.
-  __$28T:__ The massive US national [debt](https://www.usdebtclock.org/), which has been financing the stimulus(es).

__Things are looking up...__ The economy has gained ~12M jobs since March, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.2%,  and GDP is growing again. Plus, there's a massive $1.9T stimulus package coming. If it’s anything like the first two, American wallets can expect some extra padding:

- __After Stimulus Round #1,__ Americans saved a record 33% of their disposable income in April 2020 (up from 8.2% in February). That was largely thanks to stimulus checks and boosted unemployment.
- __After Stimulus Round #2,__ personal income rose 10% in January, thanks to a fresh round of (smaller) checks. And consumer spending jumped more than 2%. 


_When you can't remember how to use "stimulus" in a sentence_

Economy

__The social safety net grew massively...__ and so did Americans’ savings. The upcoming stimulus, which includes $1.4K checks, could provide the final recovery boost that the economy needs. It’s expected to be passed on Friday, and checks [could](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/when-will-irs-send-1400-dollar-stimulus-check.html) go out as soon as next week. For ~10M unemployed Americans and millions more who are struggling, that could be a big help. But too much saving could actually hurt the economy.

Year in the Economy: the coronaconomy and American wallets

__The "bear" times...__ [Bear markets](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/) represent periods of decline, but they also represent our state of mind a year ago: "hoard and hibernate." We're revisiting the grizzly fall, the stunning rise, and where we might go from here.

- __February 19, 2020:__ We're still working from the office, our face masks are made of charcoal serum, and the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__ is at a record high.
- __March 11:__ The WHO officially declares Covid-19 a pandemic, and the US [enters](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2N4J8I3LVoH4TJ41Xmtvys/articles/3lDtbIu8ObEgNzjo0WqhvE/) a bear market. The Dow closes 20% below its most recent Feb. high.
- __March 23:__ *The lowest low*. For the year: the three major stock indexes (the S&P 500, the __[Dow](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/13urVTf3GSQYdsr7Eq5fHL/what-is-the-dow/)__, and the __[Nasdaq](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/)__) are each down ~30%. The S&P and the Dow are lower than *2018* levels.

__The "bull" times...__ It's always darkest before the dawn — for markets, dawn started at the end of March. Congress unleashed trillions of $$$ worth of stimulus spending and the Fed gave us near-zero interest rates, making stocks more attractive. And people realized that Big Tech had a *big* pandemic advantage. By mid-May, the Nasdaq had recovered all of its 2020 losses. By August, stocks were back at all-time highs, with Big Tech shares leading the surge.

- __The present:__ This month, tech stocks fell into "[correction](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2KcYlm7Cjo4LfUQhj5AhuJ/articles/BgTaOW8XL9F9kIz5x26Wi/)" territory thanks to rising interest rates and inflation [fears](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/TkemicSGU43NTUB9d1ASr/articles/2mJPn77i6fUo7xq3qNVfjA/) — bringing the market down with them. But the S&P 500 is still up more than 40% over the past year. The Nasdaq is up a whopping 64%.

Markets

__Two roads diverged in a non-mellow market...__ and we don't know which one investors will choose to travel by. The bear case (bad for stocks): interest rates have risen, the new $1.9T stimulus is raising inflation fears, and Big Tech is losing its pandemic edge as the economy reopens. The bull case (good for stocks): the Fed says it won't raise rates any time soon, the upcoming stimulus package could bring economic healing, and the vaccine rollout is well underway. After the '08 financial crisis, inflation fears were high — but it never came.


Year in the Markets: it's been a wild ride for stocks

🕰 A year ago today

__The labor force awakens...__ and Bezos has a problem. __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ workers in Alabama are pushing to unionize their warehouse, which would create the first Amazon union in the US. They want job security and better working conditions. Amazon [wants](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/03/09/amazon-union-bessemer-history/) them to stop. 

- __The status:__ Ballots were sent out to the warehouse's 5.8K workers last month. They have until March 29th to vote. 
- __The  fallout:__ If they say "yes" to the union, Amazon  will be legally required to bargain with the retail union (aka: its nightmare). That could also inspire *other* Amazonians to unionize. 
- __The response:__ The 'Zon is fighting back *hard*. Think: anti-union banners, emails, and even flyers in the warehouse bathrooms.

__Power in numbers...__ By uniting workers, labor unions have leverage to improve working conditions for groups they represent. Think: negotiating contracts with employers on wages, benefits, and hours. While they're still common in Europe, they've fallen out of favor in the US: the unionization rate went from [35%](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/22/business/22union.html) in the mid-1950s, to [11%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf) in 2020. 

- __Why Amazon is anti-union:__ Union rules could limit its freedom to quickly hire (or cut) workers, and its ability to automate (aka: hire more robots). Plus, Amazon says it already offers better pay and benefits than its peers.
- __BTW:__ Amazon has been [accused](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/22/18277322/amazon-fired-warehouse-worker-staten-island-union) of retaliating against pro-union workers. Last month, President Biden tweeted a [video](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-amazon-warehouse-workers-alabama-union-video/) saying workers should be able to vote without pressure from corporate. 


Unite

__The Union Awakening transcends collar colors....__ Unions are typically associated with blue-collar jobs (like car manufacturing). In recent years, we've seen white-collar unions emerge. On the media side, __BuzzFeed__ employees formed a union in 2019. On the tech side, hundreds of __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ employees [formed](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/technology/google-employees-union.html) a rare Silicon Valley union this year. Since Googlers' median pay is ~$200K/year, their union is focused on social issues and HR policies. For Amazon warehouse workers, it's all about job security and working conditions.

Amazon's historic labor showdown: why the 'Zon is fighting the union push

__The race to zero...__ In recent years, companies have pledged billions to reduce their carbon emissions: from __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ pledging to become carbon-neutral by 2040, to __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ pledging to become carbon-*negative* by 2030. To cut emissions, companies generally invest in renewable energy (like: wind and solar) and carbon offsets (like: paying for tree plantings). But a less common way is gaining traction...

- __Carbon capture:__ It's kind of like vacuum cleaning, for CO2. Carbon dioxide is captured from the air, then moved to a storage site deep underground. Generally, CO2 gets injected into rock formations (#NoEscape).

__Counterintuitive...__ The most common commercial use for captured carbon has been... using it to squeeze oil and gas out of the ground. But now, companies are making moves to sell carbon capture for green purposes. 

- __Shopify__ will be the first customer of __Carbon Engineering__'s  capturing solution. The Canadian startup will remove CO2 on Shopify's behalf. 
- __[Occidental Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OXY) and BHP__ have also [invested](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/07/business/energy-environment/climate-change-carbon-engineering.html) in Carbon Engineering, and __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__ invested in carbon capture startup __Blue Planet__.
- __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__, once a skeptic, just [created](https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-once-a-skeptic-sees-profit-in-capturing-carbon-emissions-11614787892?mod=business_lead_pos4) a new biz unit to commercialize carbon capture  — and sees it as a potential profit puppy.


Vacuum

__There's never been a greener time...__ to sell carbon-removal solutions. President Biden has [pledged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/6FAZxow6cfIKFXsmBw8RJ2/) $2T to clean energy innovation, partly through subsidies for green tech (and his admin has supported carbon capturing). Oil giants are blamed for climate change, and Big Tech companies are also carbon-spewers. Their desire to change, combined with government incentives, could make carbon capture a big biz: Exxon says it'll be a $2T market by 2040, and that it's the cheapest way to address emissions.

Carbon capturing captures corporate interest, from Exxon to Shopify

"_Guaranteed to suck all your carbon away_"

📝 Amazon's union nightmare 

__Choose your server...__ __Discord__ is the six-year-old social platform that hosts everything from your Fortnite marathon to your cousin’s 3rd-grade birthday party. It's kind of like Zoom, Slack, and Twitch — *all in one*. Discord started as a chat tool for gamers, but has expanded to all kinds of virtual meetups during the pandemic. Think: group *Love Island* binges, homework clubs, and houseplant interest groups. And it's [crushing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-social-network-without-ads-discord-defies-convention-11615199401?mod=djemalertNEWS) it.

- __~3X:__ Discord nearly tripled revenue last year by selling subscriptions with exclusive perks. 
- __140M:__ Discord's monthly users, which have doubled during the pandemic.
- __#2:__ In January, US adults spent more time on Discord than on Twitter, Snapchat, and Reddit. It was 2nd only to Facebook among social networks. 
- __$7B:__ Discord’s valuation doubled in December (yep, still private).

__Discordant with the norm...__ Discord is designed for real-time communication — *not* scrolling through days-old hiking posts. But the biggest difference between Discord and other social networks is *how it makes money*. 

- __Discord makes 0% of its sales from ads__. Meanwhile: __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, and __[Pinterest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PINS)__ each make more than 90% of their sales from ads.
- __For $10/month or $100/year,__ Discord users can subscribe to "Nitro" for perks like special emojis and clearer video resolution. Discord is also testing other features, like original multiplayer games and e-stickers.


_Discord Doctors' Happy Hour_

__Ads are addicting, subscriptions are nourishing...__ for most social biz models. Social media companies make the product "free," but use your data to target you — and then they can't stop. The ad-based biz model has gotten more heat lately (hence: Google [removing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/11dpbcu8CVBsUReq1QrF8L/articles/39FeYXdrZm8JbQiiSGUgHf/) third-party cookies). So social companies are venturing beyond ads: Twitter is launching a paid “Super Follow” subscription, and __Clubhouse__ [plans](https://www.joinclubhouse.com/welcoming-more-voices) to ship creator subscriptions. Paid subs are harder to sustain, but they're a reliable meal of monthly revenues if they work. And it’s easier to start with subscriptions than charge later on.


Discord nearly triples sales by doing the opposite of Facebook

__Does it come in yellow flavor?...__  Gatorade doesn't want to just be the thing you bring to soccer matches — it wants to be the thing you *wear* at them. The __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__-owned brand just pulled an Apple: it's [launching](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/gatorade-launches-gx-sweat-patch-that-measures-sweat-hydration-levels.html) its first wearable.

- __Gx Sweat Patch:__ Looks like a cool band-aid, actually a ~$13 single-use patch that measures your fitness levels (by pulling the data o*ut of your sweat*). 
- __Gx App:__ You scan the patch on Gatorade's app post-Zumba sesh to reveal your unique sweat profile. Think: sodium loss and sweat rate.

__No, I don't want a Pepsi instead...__ __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__ may be winning on soft drinks, but Pepsi's winning on sports drinks: Gatorade dominates the US sports drink category with a whopping 72% of market share — Coke’s Powerade lags as #2 with a 16% share. That's probably why Pepsi mentioned Gatorade 8X during its last earnings call (more than Mountain Dew). Now it's moving into pseudo-Fitbit territory to seize on a growing trend: personalization. 

Sweat

__Personalization = the ultimate product puppy...__ From apps that track your sleep, to watches that track your heart rate, we're becoming obsessed with knowing more about *ourselves*. That's why Gatorade's CEO says personalized products can be sold at a premium (read: more $$$). Companies that customize products are seeing faster sales growth. Personalization can also drive loyalty, by making us feel *extra* special. Gatorade’s end goal with Sweat Patch isn’t FitnessTech — it’s personal connection.

Gatorade launches a fitness wearable (but not for the reason you might think)

🎮 Discord = the anti-Facebook

__Do you remember?...__ the 21st of December (cue: Earth, Wind, and Fire jam). Back then: the stock market was hitting record highs left and right, and tech stocks were leading the charge. After peaking in mid-February, markets have fallen back to around December levels. Tech stocks got hit especially hard: the tech-heavy __[Nasdaq](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/)__ index is down 8% from its February 12th peak, and is up less than 2% for the year (after being up 11% at its high). 

- __Tech stocks are near “correction” territory:__ A drop of 10% or more from the most recent high. [Corrections](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/5Ox6TeuJAgvthA6NbsWmu0/what-is-a-correction/) can hit assets (like stocks), indexes (like the Nasdaq), or entire markets. On Friday, the Nasdaq briefly hit a correction, when it was down 12% since Feb. 12. 
- __Big Tech influences the whole market,__ which is reflected in the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__ index. On Feb. 12: __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ made up a whopping [21%](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/02/12/is-the-stock-market-about-to-crash/?sh=44d8132371de) of the S&P 500’s value. 
- __BTW:__ If the market falls *20%* below its recent peak, it turns from a correction into a “[bear market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/5Ox6TeuJAgvthA6NbsWmu0/what-is-a-correction/).” We saw that happen from February to March of last year, when Covid hit.

__Why it's going down...__ Some investors think the tech sector is overvalued. Rising interest rates and inflation fears are also a huge part of it. Some worry that the Fed will raise interest rates to curb potential inflation, despite Jerome Powell saying (multiple times) that it’s unlikely to happen soon. To see why higher interest rates can be bad for stocks, check out our [explainer](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/TkemicSGU43NTUB9d1ASr/articles/2mJPn77i6fUo7xq3qNVfjA/).

- __Combine these with the vaccine rollout and economic recovery,__ and you’ll see why stocks that were crushing it mid-pandemic are falling now. 
- A few examples: __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__, __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__, and __[Teladoc](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TDOC)__ are all down over 20% since February’s peak.


Correct

__Corrections are normal...__ For long-term investors, a correction can be like a small dip in the hill toward reaching investing goals. Historically, the market has recovered from corrections (though some took longer than others). While they might be painful short-term, corrections can help "correct" the prices of overvalued stocks. Markets were frothy at their peak — a correction is kind of like a barista skimming off foam. In the past, they've been followed by periods of growth. The US stock market has had more than 25 corrections since WWII. 

Tech stocks move toward “correction” territory: we break it down

__Right in the bullseye...__ __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ nailed it last year. Sales jumped a record 20%, up $15B+ from 2019 — that's more than Target's total sales growth *over the last 11 years*. Online order pickup and delivery soared, as you grabbed mini waffle makers *curbside*. Target's 1.9K US stores are [key](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2BePZcjRjN3cnJCl6ot1Kq/articles/cquFQkd45E2AW0mpWBRJH/) to its success: Tarjay uses stores as fulfillment hubs, and 95% of sales came from stores in 2020. Customers who shop both in-store *and* digitally spend ~4X more money than those who shop only in-store — and nearly 10X more than online-only shoppers. That's why Target plans to invest $4B into stores each year.

__Forgot the cashew pesto...__ __Instacart__ raised $265M in fresh funding, catapulting it to a $39B valuation — that's more than *double* its last valuation in October. It's the second time in a year that Instacart's valuation has doubled after bagging venture capital $$$. No shocker there: grocery and delivery have thrived during the pandemic — Instacart has both. In June of last year, Instacart [claimed](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/instacart-claims-more-than-half-of-online-grocery-market/579509/) more than half of the online grocery delivery market.  Now, it's  [reportedly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-instacart-directlisting-exclusive-idUSKBN2AX13F) considering going public through a direct listing.

Highs

Who's up...

__Chip-pocalypse Now...__ The global chip [shortage](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/31E6cwe7ndD6pM602Hiv9R/articles/3Nn6tVCu3oGQg2XsCbQmyc/) is continuing to hurt car makers, from __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ to __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__. The latest to get hit: Tesla's Chinese rival __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__.  Nio shares plunged 17% for the week, after it [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/chinese-tesla-rival-nio-chip-shortage-will-hit-electric-car-production.html) that chip-pocalypse will hurt its electric car production next quarter. FYI: the average car contains 50 to 150 chips. Nio's production capacity will fall to 7.5K cars per month, down from 10K. But Nio's founder expects they can bump up production again in July.

__Call me by your name...__ __[Oscar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OSCR)__ is the Millennial startup that's simplifying health insurance. ICYMI: American health insurance is (in)famously complex. Oscar wants to put a friendly face on it. Oscar's NYSE debut was less friendly: the stock has plunged 14% since Oscar went public on Wednesday. Investors weren't wowed by its 2020 earnings: sales fell 5% from 2019, and it lost $407M. But Oscar could [benefit](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/11dpbcu8CVBsUReq1QrF8L/articles/4zsz3h7BuSJwLsyKIn23J9/) from the growth of the gig economy, since its core customers *don't* have insurance through employers (think: DoorDash drivers).

Lows

...and who's down

_Correct yourself, before you wreck yourself_

📲 Why are tech stocks falling? 

__Throw down the stats...__ Women are taking the biggest economic slam from the pandemic. As of December, women accounted for [55%](https://nwlc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/December-Jobs-Day.pdf) of the 9.6M net jobs lost in 2020. And nearly half of the 12.1M jobs lost among women from February to April *haven’t* returned. This January, the unemployment rate for women and men was about the same (just over 6%). But that’s largely because women are dropping out of the labor force at higher rates. People who stop searching for a job aren’t considered unemployed. 

- __2.5M+__ women have dropped out of the labor force between February 2020 and this January, compared to ~1.8M men. 
- __56%:__ Women’s labor force participation rate, which is at its [lowest](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002) level since 1987. Women of color have been especially affected.
- __-4.8%:__ This January, there were 4.8% fewer Black women in the labor force than a year ago — compared with a 3.1% drop for white women. 

__Not your typical recession...__ Historically, men have been hit harder by recessions. “Normal” recessions tend to strike hardest in sectors with high male employment (think: construction and manufacturing). That’s why the ‘08 financial crisis was [referred](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27660/w27660.pdf) to as a “mancession.” The coronaconomy reversed this trend into a “she-cession.” Some major reasons why:

- __Job types:__ Women are [overrepresented](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46632.pdf) in high-contact industries like dining, retail, education, and travel. These have been majorly hit by lockdowns and social distancing.
- __Childcare:__ With schools closed, women took on a [larger](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27660/w27660.pdf) share of extra childcare duties than men — and many have left jobs to do so. 


__It’s getting harder to bring back lost jobs...__ especially those lost among women. The overall pace of recovery has slowed each month since June. Schools are still closed in many parts of the US, and thousands of businesses that largely employed women have permanently closed or scaled back operations (think: airlines, restaurants, and malls). Each month that women stay unemployed or out of the labor force makes it harder to find a job. But the vaccine rollout and upcoming stimulus package could help speed things up. The February jobs report drops *today*, so we’ll see if there’s any improvement.


The “She-cession”: why the coronaconomy is hitting women harder than men

__A crown made of air...__  __[Carrier Global](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CARR)__ is the king of air conditioners. We know that because its founder, Willis Carrier, literally [invented](https://www.carrier.com/carrier/en/worldwide/about/willis-carrier/) modern air conditioning. The stock has more than 2X'd since April 2020, when Carrier spun out from its former parent company. Though its latest earnings [disappointed](https://www.barrons.com/articles/carrier-stock-crumbled-after-earnings-what-investors-missed-51612911451) analysts, Carrier believes the best is yet to come. 

__*"Change is in the air"*...__ according to Carrier's earnings [presentation](https://ir.carrier.com/static-files/a9cc6ceb-d7e8-46e5-ac87-fff92cb11401) (surprisingly interesting). Three megatrends are bringing favorable winds to Carrier's biz: climate change, urbanization, and a growing middle class. Hotter days, city living, and rising disposable income are expected to keep boosting sales for the entire HVAC industry. Some cool numbers:

- __19__ of the hottest years on record have been in the past 20 years. Sweat = more A/C.
- __141:__ The average number of days per year above 70⁰F in NYC in 2020, up from 111 in 2000. That number is expected to hit 184 by 2050.
- __55%:__ The percentage of humans living in cities in 2020, up from 45% in 2000. The global urban population is expected to hit 70% by 2050.
- __3.6B:__ The world's "middle class" population in 2018, up from 1.5B in 2020. That's expected to hit ~5.5B by 2030. 

__Air quality has gained fresh importance....__ First, there's the pandemic effect: poor ventilation can increase virus spread — so schools, offices, and hospitals became more focused on air quality (good for HVAC companies). Second, there's the environmental effect: in 2020, companies committed billions of $$$ to fighting climate change and reducing emissions  — but [15%](https://www.barrons.com/articles/carrier-stock-crumbled-after-earnings-what-investors-missed-51612911451) of greenhouse gases are from HVAC systems. That's why companies like Carrier are focused on energy-efficiency. Carrier's goal: to save customers 1 gigaton of carbon emissions by 2030. That's equivalent to ~20% of what the US emits in a year.

Carrier, the King of A/C, has three global megatrends blowing in its favor

_141: The average number of days/year above 70⁰F in NYC_

👩‍🎤 Unpacking the "She-cession" 

__Cookie Monster goes on a diet...__ __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ is Earth's biggest digital advertiser. In 2020, it accounted for 52% of the world's digital ad spend (FYI: *$292B*). But it's making some privacy changes that'll reduce its precious targeting abilities. 

-  __Last year,__ Google said it would remove third-party cookies from Chrome  by 2022. These tiny pieces of data are widely used to track your individual browsing activity from site to site.
-  __*Yesterday,*__ Google [said](https://blog.google/products/ads-commerce/a-more-privacy-first-web/) that it *won't* introduce new ways to track individual browsing once cookies are gone. 

__That's the way the cookie crumbles....__ Well, at least the third-party cookie. Google isn't scrapping *first*-party cookies, which are meant to be used on the same domain they're placed on. They're why you don't need to log in each time you open Gmail (cookie remembers). Google will still track your Search history, and target ads/results there — same goes for YouTube. But when you visit BuzzFeed, Google won't target ads based on your "organic cat food" search.

- __Google isn't getting rid of tracking:__ That would kill its biz. Instead, it could use aggregated, anonymized tracking to target without *individual* info. One of Google's solutions includes putting people into groups based on similar browsing behaviors. 


_Advertisers love that cookie magic_

Track

__Google thinks the benefits outweigh the losses...__  and it could be right. Individualized tracking has come under fire by regulators and privacy advocates. This could be a move to get ahead of regulation — and win points with the public. Plus, Google's biz likely won't take a major hit thanks to the alternatives it's cooking up: with group-based tracking, Google [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/24/google-extremely-confident-about-third-party-cookie-alternatives-.html) advertisers can expect at least 95% of the conversions per dollar spent (compared to cookie-based advertising). Wall Street isn’t worried, either: Google shares fell only 1% more than the  market yesterday.


Google will stop using your individual browsing history to sell targeted ads

__And the Oscar for best NYSE debut goes to...__ *not* __[Oscar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OSCR)__. If the __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ and __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__ IPOs were [blockbusters](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3dRtKJ3pIUtnX1yDSLVTJY/articles/47zqImTPv4BiAjpmDbiqv4/), Oscar's IPO was more like a low-key Hulu flick. The Millennial-focused health insurance startup (you can tell by the [font](https://www.hioscar.com/)), saw its share close down 11% from their IPO price yesterday. Oscar is similar to __[Lemonade](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LMND)__, except Lemonade offers home/renters insurance. Oh, and Lemonade's stock [doubled](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/tech-ipos-getting-mispriced-as-lemonade-and-agora-double-in-debuts.html) on its first trading day (womp). Both are putting a friendly face on insurance — but Oscar has a harder task. 

__American health insurance is infamously complex...__ You could go to med school in the time it takes to understand insurance plans. Oscar's trying to make it simple, affordable, and personal — especially for people who *aren't* insured through employers. It now has 529K members. 

- __How it started:__ Oscar was cofounded by Josh Kushner in 2013 to complement Obamacare. The founders believed it would thrive on Obamacare exchanges, where people compare and pick plans.
- __How it's going:__ Not so hot. Oscar's 2020 revenue fell 5% from 2019, and it *lost* $407M (almost as much as its sales). 


Insure

__Oscar needs "gigification"...__ It's banking on  continued growth of the American gig economy. Its core customers *don't* have employer insurance. Think: DoorDash drivers, freelance writers, and part-time sitters. Oscar has a few things working in its favor. The gig economy [scored](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX/) a huge victory in November when CA voters said "Yes" to Prop 22. Now, companies like Lyft don't have to reclassify gig drivers as employees, which would've meant providing health insurance. Also: 10M+ Americans are still unemployed, and many are turning to side jobs like food delivery. 

Oscar, the "Obamacare stock," plunges after going public — it needs the gig economy 

🕵️‍♀️  Google's cookies crumble 

__Bullseye...__ If you're feeling down, just Google pictures of __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__'s bull terrier puppy [mascot](https://corporate.target.com/article/2018/12/green-monday).  Target's sales jumped a record 20% last year to $94B. Wild stat: 2020 sales grew $15B+ from 2019 — that's more than Target's total sales growth *over the last 11 years*. Tarjay [says](https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-boosts-targets-growth-at-rivals-expense-11614684877) it snagged $9B in sales from competitors. Online order pickup and delivery crushed it: 18% of sales came from digital channels in 2020, doubling from 2019.

__Omnichannel is thriving...__ and thankfully, it's not a new streaming service. Omnichannel = the fancy retail term for a synchronized shopping experience that unites stores, websites/apps, and services. Think: virtually trying on Warby Parker glasses, then picking them up in-store (or vice versa). Target has been working on its omni strategy for years, and stores are a key part of that: 

- __1.9K:__ Instead of splurging to build warehouses, Target mainly uses its 1.9K US stores as hubs for shipping and pickup (unlike Amazon).
-  __95%__ of sales came from stores in 2020, including online orders. That sweatsuit you ordered likely came from the Tarjay down the street.
-  __$4B:__ How much Target will invest into brick-and-mortar stores each year to speed up its online-order capabilities.


_If Target launched streaming: "Let's go with Omnichannel+"_

Omni

__Stores are Target's leg up over Amazon...__ Target customers who shop in multiple channels (like in-store *and* delivery) spend ~4X more money on average than customers who shop only in-store — *and nearly 10X more than online-only customers*. There are cost benefits, too: in 2019, Target's move to store fulfillment slashed costs by 40%. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ has been leaning into this strategy, turning some of its 4.7K US stores into fulfillment centers. Stores give Target and Walmart an omni edge that __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ mostly lacks — especially as people start to leave the house.


 Target leans into an anti-Amazon strategy after a record sales year

__Cold towel, hot water...__ __[One Medical](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ONEM)__ is kind of like the Equinox of primary care ($200/year membership fee). The app-based concierge healthcare company went public last year, with the goal of "making people fall in love with their doctor's office." We know it loves Millennials, since it mentioned "delight" seven times in its IPO filing (more than "doctor"). Now it's dealing with some undelightful attention. 

- __The bad:__ One Medical has allegedly been letting ineligible patients and wealthy VIP clients cut the Covid vaccine line, [according](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/24/970176532/high-end-medical-provider-let-ineligible-people-skip-covid-19-vaccine-line) to NPR.
- __The ugly:__ Congress is now [investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/house-panel-investigates-one-medical-for-allegedly-letting-clients-cut-covid-vaccine-line.html) the allegations. One Medical stock has plunged 15% since the NPR report dropped mid-last week. 

__The response...__ One Medical pushed back, saying that it doesn't "broadly and knowingly disregard eligibility guidelines." It also says it fired staff members that had glossed over eligibility rules. That didn't spare it from backlash: Washington state and five Bay Area counties have stopped sending vaccines to One Medical. The SF Department of Public Health went a step further, asking it to *return* 1.6K doses of the Pfizer vaccine. 


__Vax distribution already has an equality problem...__ If One Medical is exploiting the (federally funded) vax rollout for its own biz interests, it's making the inequality worse. The vaccine is still scarce, and [67%](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic) of people who have been vaccinated in the US so far have been white. On the bright side: __[Johnson & Johnson](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JNJ)__'s game-changing [one-shot](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6jwYdiy4al8n5v0GOdIik/articles/7kSxhWesI8SzTyVJS53x2B/) vaccine has started rolling out, and President Biden just said the US will be able to vax all adults by the end of May. But if the One Medical allegations are true, that could limit (or end) its vax involvement. That could hurt its growing biz and its stock price.


One Medical allegedly let VIPs skip the vaccine line (spoiler: the stock plunged)

🎯 Target's anti-Amazonian strategy 

__Like Game of Thrones...__ but for the plant-based world. Some major alliances have recently formed in the alt-food market. __Oatly__, the oat milk brand that craft coffee shops brush their teeth with, just snagged one of the highest honors in "mainstreamification": a nationwide rollout at __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX)__. 

- __DTR:__ Starbs has been testing Oatly at its stores in the Midwest, and even brought it to 4.3K Chinese locations. With the nationwide rollout, the Swedish oat brand is getting a major validator ahead of its recently announced IPO(at). 

__On the patty side...__ __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ just signed big deals with __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ and __[Yum Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YUM)__, the owner of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. Think: McPlant Burgers for MickeyD's, and plant-protein pizza toppings and alt-chicken for Yum Brands. Beyond has been beefing up its presence: in January, it teamed up with __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ for plant protein drinks and snacks. In 2019, it launched a Beyond Sausage breakfast sammie at 9K __Dunkin'__ locations. During the pandemic...

- __Restaurant plays didn't really pay off:__ Beyond's US restaurant sales plunged 43% last quarter from 2019, as you swapped Dunkin' sandwiches for Quaker Oats.
- __Grocery plays *did*:__ Beyond's US grocery sales popped 76%, as it expanded to more locations (including 2.4K Walmarts). To capitalize on the home life, Beyond offered more affordable patty packs to compete with beef prices.


__Beyond is a "double-dip" brand...__ and Oatly is now following its playbook. There aren't many food brands that you recognize both in the grocery aisle *and* on the restaurant menu (besides alcohol). With their strong brand recognition, Oatly and Beyond have the power to be both restaurant and grocery staples. They can rely on grocery stores when restaurant sales are down, and vice versa (aka: pandemic/recovery hedge). While Beyond has snagged more partnerships, Oatly is following its lead with this Starbs deal.


Oatly and Beyond Meat snag deals with major restaurant chains (they're hedging)

__Could buy a beachside condo...__ for the price of one __[Berkshire Hathaway](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BRK.A)__ Class A share (*~$378K* for BRK.A, ~$250 for BRK.B). Warren Buffett's legendary holding company owns businesses like Geico and Dairy Queen, and has major investments in companies like Coke and Amex. Buffett is the OG financial influencer (#finfluencer): for decades, investors have closely followed his moves.  Which brings us to...

- __Buffett's famous annual letter__ to shareholders was [released](https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2021/02/27/2020ltr.pdf) Saturday. It earned $42.5B in 2020, including realized and unrealized capital gains from investments. That's about half of what it earned in 2019. 
- __Back to benchmark:__ Berkshire compares its stock performance to the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__ index, which is used as a benchmark for the overall market. In 2020, the S&P 500 rose ~16% — *Berkshire shares rose ~2%*.

__Playing it safe(r)...__ Berkshire has ~$138B in cash, but it didn't make any major acquisitions in 2020. It took big stakes in __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__ and __[Verizon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VZ)__, but stayed away from the blockbuster deals that made it famous. *Instead*, Berkshire bought back a record ~$25B of its own shares last year. Stock buybacks are kind of like presents to shareholders. By reabsorbing their own shares, companies can improve their stock prices by reducing the number of available shares — and increasing shareholders' ownership.


Omaha

__Buffett invests in what he *knows*...__ and he doesn't really know software and high tech. Rule #5 of Berkshire's acquisition [criteria](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2000ar/acq.html): it invests in "simple businesses (if there's lots of technology, we won't understand it)." Berkshire *does* have a giant stake in __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, and took a small(er) $735M stake in cloud company __[Snowflake](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNOW)__ last year. But for the most part, it has stayed away from tech. Unfortunately for Buffett, Big Tech stocks currently dominate the overall market — *and they rallied big in 2020*. The tech-heavy __[Nasdaq](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1GXPrecRfkSNp0aBblBSsL/what-is-the-nasdaq/)__ index soared 43% last year, compared to BRK's ~2% gain.

Berkshire Hathaway invests a record amount of money... into itself 

"_Show us the Oatly_"

🔮 Buffett gives (buy)back

__Who ya got?...__ __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__ doesn't miss the days when Russian ping pong was the biggest live action on TV. Now, every major sports league is back in (bubble) action, and the sports betting app's shares have nearly 4X'd over the past year. Also helpful: 20 states (plus DC) have legalized online sports betting, and more are working on it. On Friday, DraftKings shares popped 6% after it raised its revenue outlook for 2021 and delivered strong sales:

- __2X:__ DraftKings' revenue more than doubled compared to the same period in 2019, as people hit the screens instead of the stadiums.
-  __$65:__ The average revenue DraftKings made per monthly user, up from $42 in 2019. It had ~1.5M monthly paying users last quarter.

__Love don't cost a thing...__ but attention does. DraftKings now says it's the top iGaming operator in the US, but that flex-worthy title comes at a price: DraftKings spent nearly $500M on sales and marketing in 2020 — *that's ~80% of its revenue for the year*. It basically spent 80 cents for every $1 of sales it brought in. Think: commercials, FB ads, and $500 sign-up bonus promos. While that helped it grow sales and users, DraftKings *lost* ~$844M for the year.

- __Airbnb is taking the *opposite* approach:__ In 2020, Airbnb pulled back on all marketing because its bookings took a pandemic plunge.
-  __Then something weird happened:__ Airbnb's site traffic bounced back to 95% of 2019 levels *without* any marketing spend. Last quarter, 90% of Airbnb's traffic was unpaid.
-  __Now,__ Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says the company will never spend as much on marketing (as a % of sales) as it did pre-pandemic.


_DraftKings spends it like Beckham_

Score

__"Go-to" marketing is the best marketing...__ DraftKings has serious competitors like __FanDuel__, __[William Hill](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WIMHY)__, and __[Penn National Gaming](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PENN)__. Meanwhile, Airbnb is the clear go-to when people look for short-term rentals. Chesky thinks Airbnb doesn't need all that marketing, because "it's a noun and a verb in pop culture" (#flex). Companies like DraftKings and DoorDash rely on expensive promos to snag customers from competitors, but that "loyalty" can fade easily. Having "go-to" status reduces the need for marketing, increasing the chances of profitability.

DraftKings crushed sales, but it has a marketing reliance problem

__Screenshot these numbers...__ __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__ shares soared to a record on Wednesday after it updated investors about its biz. Snap [expects](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6ayK3gl1rqepiw8vkFk0FE/articles/1w3MRpNTnNQjpGR8ALRL7z/) 50% annual sales growth for the next few years (music to investors' ears). With 265M daily users, Snap says it reaches 90% of 13- to 24-year-olds in the US. Investors also liked Snap's new strategy to grow ad sales in *non*-messaging features, like Snap Map. 35M businesses are already on Map, and Snap will continue Yelp-ifying to drive sales. With a growing mix of products, investors think Snap is past its pics-only tween stage: shares have more than 4X'd over the past year.

__*Not the band*...__ But if __[Carvana](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVNA)__ had a theme song, it would be "Come as You Are." The online used-car seller saw its shares jump 8% after earnings on Friday. Carvana's quarterly sales jumped 65% from 2019, and profit soared 71% to an impressive $244M. People were scared of public transit, and many moved out of cities to WFS (work-from-suburb). That pumped up car demand and prices, *especially* for used cars: used vehicle prices [soared](https://apnews.com/article/prices-inflation-coronavirus-pandemic-united-states-c6f8a2a7cf916cbda0d5f112b1260997) a whopping 14% in 2020. Those increases boosted sales for online car sellers like Carvana and __[Vroom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VRM)__.

__Arrived cold...__ __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__ shares plunged 18% for the week after it dropped off its first earnings report as a public company. DoorDash [beat](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/25/doordash-dash-q4-2020-earnings.html) expectations on quarterly sales, which more than tripled from 2019 as burrito-in-bed replaced Friday night out. But its quarterly loss more than doubled to $312M — that didn't sit well with investors. Also unappetizing: DoorDash expects order volume to fall in 2021 as restaurants reopen and people ditch the bed for the bar.

__Try meditation...__ __[Workhorse](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WKHS)__ had a rough week. The electric van maker saw its stock lose more than half its value over the week. Investors were bummed that Workhorse [lost](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/oshkosh-beats-workhorse-for-postal-service-delivery-vehicle-contract) a key contract to build __USPS__' next-generation of mail trucks. Instead, __[Oshkosh](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OSK)__ will get $482M to assemble 50K to 165K USPS trucks over the next 10 years. Workhorse brought in less than $1M in sales in the first nine months of 2020, so this government contract would’ve made a big difference. BTW: Workhorse reports earnings today.   


✨ The vaccine halo effect