__Ariana Grande fans are having withdrawal...__ and concert giant __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__ is saying "thank u, next" to 2020 (*48 more days*). Live Nation's sales were down 95% last quarter because it was 0% live. The previous quarter was even *worse*, since festival season was cancelled (#Nochella). Still...

- __83% of concert-goers *kept* their tickets__ for rescheduled shows last quarter, keeping Live Nation's refund rate low. It still lost over $1B since January.
- __Live Nation has already [sold](https://deadline.com/2020/11/live-nation-sees-live-events-returning-at-scale-next-summer-without-concerts-q3-sales-plunge-94-1234609979/) 19M tickets__ to 4K+ concerts scheduled for 2021, so it's invested in them actually *happening*. 

__Do I have to take off my shoes?...__ Live Nation's Ticketmaster unit is [reportedly](https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaster-vaccine-check-concerts-plan) working on a TSA-like plan to go live. Ticketmaster wants to check your COVID status before you step foot in its venues.  

- __After buying a ticket,__ you verify that you've been vaccinated OR that you've tested negative for COVID-19 no more than three days before the concert.
- __Your test results get delivered__ to a health pass company like CLEAR. If you test negative, CLEAR tells Ticketmaster you're good to rock.


_"I said I want to do it live!"_

Rock

__This could be a framework for all live gatherings...__ Live Nation wants to lead the "Return to Live." A vaccine *could* be widely available by April, as Dr. Fauci [suggested](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/10/nation/dr-fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-widely-available-by-april/) following the promising __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43). But until enough Americans get vaccinated (could be a while), Live Nation will have to prove it can operate safely enough. If it succeeds, others like __[Eventbrite](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EB)__ could follow.


Live Nation wants to become the TSA of concerts to make sure 2021 is live

__But does it have Ludicrous mode?...__ __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ is [working](https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-fords-go-fast-ceo-a-humble-van-looms-large-11605189833?mod=business_lead_pos1) on an electric version of its classic Transit model. The nearly-windowless van reminds you of a sketchy UberPool — it's actually the top-selling van in America, used by companies for jobs like plumbing and delivery. Now Ford wants to give it some sex appeal...

- __The e-Transit will start at $45K__ and is set to drop in 2021. It could attract businesses looking to save on fuel costs. Also... 
- __Maintenance costs will be 40% lower__ over eight years for the electric vs. the gas version, according to Ford (no oil changes).

__It's not just about electric wheels...__ Ford's also making a subscription play with digital add-ons to help customers track and manage their fleets. Currently, it charges $20 to $25 per vehicle/month for those services. It's expanding those offerings with the new e-fleets: 

- __Driver-coaching:__ Remember those "How's my driving?" bumper stickers? This is like the techy version of that. Voice commands nag drivers if they're speeding or idling for too long (fuuun). 
- __Juice check:__ Owners can remotely check how much charge each van has left, or preprogram them to recharge when rates are lower.

Subscribe

__Subs could be Ford's future profit puppy...__ With recurring revenue from digital subscriptions, Ford can continue to profit off your purchase even *after* it sells you the car. Companies are obsessed with data because it helps them run more efficiently: if Ford can save companies money with these connected data services, companies could be willing to pay extra.


Ford is betting big on a data-driven electric version of its Transit van

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🎤  Live Nation's (COVID-free) live summer 

__Napping during the earnings call...__ __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ just reported quarterly earnings, which seem to be its only mildly spotlight-worthy event of 2020 — and they weren't so thrilling, either. 

- __Active riders jumped 44%__ from the previous (horrible) quarter, signaling a mild recovery in ride-hail. But they were still *down* 44% from 2019.
- __Lyft lost $460M__, nearly as much as in the same quarter last year. But it's hoping to be [EBITDA](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/52pskmpn39o7Y5RhE4APiH/what-is-ebitda/) profitable next year.

__Whip up the scorecard...__ While Lyft has been doing the least this year, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__'s been aggressively expanding its products and making big moves:

- __Food delivery:__ Uber agreed to [buy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) __Postmates__ for $2.7B, while UberEats orders more than doubled during the pandemic.
- __Logistics:__ Uber Freight's gig trucking business [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) $500M and is now worth $3.3B.
- __Public Transit:__ Uber started [selling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2zpVwVyEiGyPCvumSTvoc8/articles/6yN6Pa4Rv06oCT8tXPdeL5/) its software for public transport use, and bought public transit-focused __Routematch__. 
- __Micromobility:__ Uber led a big investment in __Lime__ and offers both Lime *and* its own Jump electric scooters/bikes in-app.
- __Aerial mobility:__ Uber Elevate partnered with GE for "Uber Air" helicopter ride-sharing (ETA: 2023).
- __Rides:__ Uber's [launching](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/uber-will-now-let-users-book-rides-30-days-in-advance-and-pick-a-favorite-driver/) "Reserve" this week to let riders book their fave drivers in advance.


_When Lyft starts telling you its "story" on the plane_

Yawn

__Lyft's fail is probably reflected in its stock ...__ Lyft offers bike/scooter sharing and has [tested](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lyft-delivery/lyft-launches-meal-grocery-delivery-service-in-several-u-s-cities-idUSKCN21X33G) essential deliveries for businesses in a few cities (food, groceries, etc). Besides that, it's  a pure-play Rides company — not great during a pandemic (even with the Prop 22 [victory](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX)). That's likely why Lyft stock is down 16% this year, while Uber is *up* 49%.

Lyft's boring 2020 is reflected in its stock price (just look at Uber)

__Overheard on marketing...__ *The Hollywood Bowl of virtual conferences – or Zoom's socially adept cousin?* Virtual conferencing startup __Hopin__ wants to be your home for live online events. But it's biggest strength might be impeccable timing: it officially launched in June 2019, just around six months before... *you know what*. The glow-up since March 2020:

- __User explosion:__ In eight months,  Hopin grew from 5K users and 1.8K event hosts to *3.5M users* and 50K host orgs (including NATO, the UN, and Slack).
- __Cash explosion:__ Hopin went from basically 0 to $20M in annual sales, and says it's now profitable. It just [raised](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/hopin-raises-125m-for-its-online-events-platform-on-the-back-of-surging-growth/) $125M in venture cash and is valued at over $2B (#DoubleUnicorn).

__Burrito for lunch...__ means you're turning off your __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ cam (and mic). Hoppin's [positioning](https://hopin.com/blog/how-hopin-is-different-from-other-platforms) itself as a more social version of "other platforms" (major Zoom shade). It lets you exchange virtual business cards, fill out polls, and explore interactive "rooms" and expo booths. It also has "backstages" for speakers and branding placements for event sponsors. *And* it's building an Eventbrite-like market that helps you discover events.


Burrito

__Hoppin could thrive post-pandemic, too...__ The big __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ vax [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) sent Zoom stock plunging on Tuesday — investors are already envisioning a return to normalcy. But Hopin says it was born to be a “hybrid” service that complements physical events. That's something that could stick post-pandemic, even though the growth won't be as huge. 

Zoom competitor Hopin raises $125M to be the Live Nation of virtual events

🚙 Lyft's uneventful 2020 

__Tired of living in Sephora's (eye)shadow...__ __[Ulta Beauty](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULTA)__ needs a place to crash  this pandemic cuffing season — so it's [moving in](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ulta-beauty-to-get-shops-inside-target-stores-11605021435?mod=business_lead_pos3) with __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__. But Target's offering more than a blow-up mattress: it'll set aside 1K square-foot sections in over 100 Target stores for Ulta mini-shops starting in 2021. Tarjay's planning to expand the beauty chain to hundreds more stores over time. Ulta stock got a 7% glow-up on the partnership.

__"In the red"...__ every company's lipstick shade nightmare. Ulta narrowly avoided a loss last quarter as profit plunged nearly 95%. Most of its sales come from its 1K+ stores, which were forced to close for most of the quarter. But the tide could turn with this key partnership: 

- __Ulta's getting an "Essential Shield."__ Even if lockdowns get reimposed, grocery-slinging Target will get to stay open.
- __Ulta's getting unintentional exposure.__ You’re not likely to hit up Ulta for lipliner (masks and Zoom killed that). But you might pick up face serum on your way to buy hummus.
- __It's getting featured on Target’s website and app__ — prime real-estate for a company that badly needs to up its digital game.


_When they move you from Aisle 5 Bread to the Ulta store_

Blend

__Inception Retail could be the future...__ This store-within-a-store model sounds a lot like department stores. But malls and department stores are [filing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/malls-file-for-bankruptcy-or-shut-their-doors-as-pandemic-pain-spreads-11605013664?mod=business_lead_pos4) for bankruptcy and shuttering in droves. Meanwhile, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ is [toying](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/09/amazon-wants-to-use-jc-penney-stores-as-fulfillment-centers---report.html) with the idea of turning bankrupt __JC Penney__ and __Sears__ into fulfillment centers. To fill this void, pandemic winners Target and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ have expanded their clothes and cosmetics offerings. Inception Retail is the next push into malls' territory.

Ulta Beauty stores move into Target with the "Inception Retail" model 

__Serious pod head...__ __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ is majorly pod addicted. In the past few years, the Swedish streamer has sealed deals for shows from big names like Joe Rogan, Michelle Obama, and Kim K. Spotify also [shelled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2NAQjqWOY8CUQ4E7cSgLSV/articles/ib1obLuM7DcHI0MDKjbms/) out over $500M to buy companies like The Ringer (pod network), Gimlet (pod producer), Parcast (original shows), and Anchor (pod recording software). Now...

- __Spotify is buying Megaphone for $235M.__ The pod-tech firm helps podcasters with production, ads, and audience metrics. But its real selling point is...
- __"Targeted Marketplace"__ — this service lets advertisers target listeners by interest, demographics, and buying history. Like Facebook, for your ears.

__You're special...__  Not everyone got the same Function of Beauty ad mid-pod — Megaphone knows you're worried about split hairs. Advertisers buy slots targeting different audiences across the 5.5K+ shows that use Megaphone, instead of specific pods. With this acquisition, Spotify gains all of Megaphone's customers. It can also use Megaphone's tech to improve/expand its *own* ad tech.

Podiction

__Podcasting is still going through puberty...__ It grew three feet over the past two years, and now its old basketball shorts look like  Speedos (awkward). Podcasting now has over [100M](https://www.wsj.com/articles/spotify-buys-podcast-tech-firm-megaphone-11605016803?mod=business_lead_pos12) monthly listeners, but less than $1B/year is spent on pod ads. Targeting/measurement on pods is way less precise than social media targeting, so advertisers aren't shelling out as much $$$. Spotify's hoping to change that with this deal.


Spotify drops a quarter billion on a pod-cquistion to help it grow out of puberty

💄 Ulta moves into Target

__Biggest vax flex yet...__ Big pharma __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ and German biotech __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html) their jointly developed COVID-19 vaccine was more than *90%* effective in Phase 3 trials — that's huge. For reference:

- __50% to 60% effectiveness:__ Dr. Fauci has said this rate would be acceptable to approve a vaccine (the flu vaccine [is](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm) only 40% to 60% effective).
- __60% to 70%:__ Health experts say this rating would be a big win. Pfizer's 90%+ would be a wild success — but results are preliminary and haven't been peer-reviewed. 

__Please get it mRN-ASAP...__ If Pfizer's vax gets FDA-approval, it would be the 1st mRNA vaccine *ever* approved for human use. Unlike OG vaccines (which use a weakened virus to generate an immune response), mRNA ones *teach* cells to destroy the virus. 

- __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA) stock popped__  too because it's *also* in final stage trials of an mRNA vaccine. __[AstraZeneca](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AZN)__, which is in final trials for a traditional vax, dropped.  
- __Reopening stocks__ majorly soared: __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ was up 51%, __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ was up 39%, and __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ spiked 17%. "Pandemic Winners" like __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, and __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ all dropped big.
- __BTW:__ Vaccines usually take around 10 years from development to approval. This vax is on pace for a record-shattering timeframe.


__Pfizer has a big leg up...__ if others have to compete with a 90% efficacy rate — that's highly attractive to vax-buying countries, even though Pfizer's vax [comes](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/four-reasons-for-encouragement-based-on-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-results/) with more rollout challenges. Moderna seems the most likely to get similar results (because: #mRNAlife). Pfizer's planning to request FDA emergency use authorization in late November. With approval, Pfizer says it can make 50M doses in 2020 and 1.3B in 2021.


Pfizer and BioNTech say their COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective (whoa)

__Well, this is awkward...__ *or is it just savage*? Yesterday, plant-based icon __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ served up a surprising loss and disappointing quarterly sales. *On the same day*, __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ delivered expectation-beating growth and unleashed this on the world: "the McPlant." 

- __The McPlant__ is a (wait for it) plant-based burger [crafted](https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/en-us/our-stories/article/ourstories.menu-items.html) "for McDonald’s, by McDonald’s." Mickey D’s plans to test it in several countries next year. 
- __Beyond Meat__ [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/mcdonalds-to-test-mcplant-which-includes-its-own-meat-free-burger-next-year-beyond-meat-shares-fall.html) it co-created the McPlant patty, but McDonald's made zero mention of Beyond in its announcement. Awkward...

__Not feelin' McLovin'...__ Beyond might be feeling a bit used. Last year, McDonald’s began testing a meatless burger ("PLT") in Canada that used Beyond patties. While McDonald's ended that pilot, it clearly saw potential in the meatless, McPlant-based market. Mickey D’s hasn't yet confirmed the supplier, but it won't be making it itself. 


_McDonald's = the Regina George of fast food_

__McDonald's wants all the attention...__ If Beyond is supplying, that could mean a lucrative long-term partnership with America's largest restaurant by sales — would be nice, considering Beyond lost $19M last quarter. But McDonald's clearly isn't showcasing Beyond's brand with McPlant — unlike __[Dunkin'](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DNKN)__ with the Beyond Breakfast sandwich. Beyond might be willing to go anonymous and trade brand recognition for cash recognition.

McDonald's drops "the McPlant" on the same day that Beyond face plants

__Soulless name...__ *soulful brand*. __[VF Corp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VFC)__ is the unfortunately-named company which owns Vans, North Face, Dickies, and soon... *Supreme*. The popular streetwear/skater brand is best known for its iconic red logo that appears everywhere. Now:

- __Supreme is getting [bought](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/vf-to-buy-supreme-for-2-1-billion-to-boost-apparel-brands?sref=q3KSFp38) for $2.1B__ and will become part of VF's publicly-traded stock. It's VF's largest acquisition since it snatched up Timberland in 2011 for $2.3B.
- __VF stock jumped as much as 17%__ yesterday on the news — the most in over 30 years. But it's still down over 20% this year.

__Googling "how to be cool"...__ Slap a Supreme sticker on it. Supreme reeks with "cool factor" — that's something VF needs badly, since most of its brands are past their early 2000s Avril Lavigne peak. Vans and Timbs sales are slowing, and VF has already sold off some of its "declining cool" and industrial workwear brands: Wrangler, Lee, and 7 For All Mankind. 


Beanie

__This is a learn-cquisition...__ Supreme is a master at generating hype, with everything from weekly product releases to buzzy collabs — VF wants to learn its ways. It'll also leverage Supreme's digital strategy and social media prowess to expand its ecommerce channels (#linkinbio). But Supreme's biggest appeal is scarcity. If VF scales it up too much, it might lose that "special" factor — then they'd *both* lose.


Supreme gets bought for $2.1B by Vans-owner VF Corp 

💉 Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough

__Refilling the minibar Fiji bottles...__ *with sink water*. __[Marriott](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__ miraculously [turned](https://www.wsj.com/articles/marriott-international-posts-3q-profit-11604665677?mod=business_lead_pos3) a profit last quarter by being extra thrifty. It's the world’s largest hotel operator  with over 7K properties across 130+ countries — usually something to brag about, not so much during a world-halting pandemic. Room occupancy went the way of the "wake up call" (near-extinct):

- __Just over a third of rooms__ in North America were booked. European Marriotts were even emptier, at just 1 in 5. BTW: Marriott also owns The Ritz, W, and Sheraton. 
- __RevPAR:__ A metric hotel people are *obsessed* with. It's the average daily room price multiplied by occupancy rate. Marriot's fell nearly 70% from last year. *And yet somehow...*
-  __*Marriott checked in a $100M profit*__ from July to September, compared to a $230M loss in the previous quarter. 

__Continental Breakfast = 1 Eggo waffle...__ __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__ and __[Hyatt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/H)__ had similar RevPAR plunges as Marriott, but *they* posted losses. How? Travel demand improved a bit from the previous quarter (especially in China), but it's really about cost-slashing...

- __Marriott cut costs by 57%__ — that's almost exactly the same percentage that total sales *fell* from last year. Marriot made 57% less, but spent 57.2% less. That 0.2% extra = profit.


_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_

Shampoo

__Budgeting is a skill...__ that can be used to make the best of worst-case scenarios. Marriott has fixed costs like rent and insurance (just like us) — but it showed budgeting prowess by precisely cutting everywhere it *could* to turn a profit. Sadly, that [included](https://skift.com/2020/09/08/marriott-to-lay-off-17-percent-of-corporate-headquarters-staff-in-october/) tens of thousands of furloughs in March and corporate layoffs in October.

Marriott turns a surprise profit despite near-empty hotels (it's a budgeting pro)

__Saved by the ballot...__ Gig driving companies [scored](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX) big after California voters passed Prop 22, exempting them from CA's AB5 law. __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ stock soared more than 30% for the week, since they won't have to reclassify drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO). Also exempted: __DoorDash__, __Postmates__, and __Instacart__. AB5 would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps lose even more money. 

__Drunk ordered a couch...__ *from the couch*. Millennial furniture favorite __[Wayfair](https://robinhood.com/stocks/W)__ just proved that the pandemic "House Hype" is still strong. Quarterly sales shot up 67%, and Wayfair even made a comfy profit (after *losing* ~$300M during the same three months last year). It's using techy data to find out what's most popular, then crank out 10,000 versions of it. The stock popped 21% for the week, and has more than 3X'd this year.

Highs

Who's up...

__Missing the movie magic...__ __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ is desperate for a happy ending. The world’s largest movie theater chain lost nearly $1B last quarter. Sales plunged *91%* from last year as theaters were shut for most of the quarter. Now 80% of its US theaters are open, but limited capacity and blockbuster delays are choking sales. The cash-starved chain is looking to raise up to $50M by [selling](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/amc-seeks-stock-sale-to-raise-50-million-to-stave-off-bankruptcy.html) 20M shares to stave off bankruptcy. Happy ending = survival.

__Surprise squashing...__ Chinese fintech giant __Ant Group__ was *supposed* to go public last week in the world's biggest IPO. Its mega-app Alipay has over 1B users and offers every money-related service imaginable. Problem? Ant's founder Jack Ma made a (poorly-timed) speech [criticizing](https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-suspension-regulators/how-billionaire-jack-ma-fell-to-earth-and-took-ants-mega-ipo-with-him-idUSKBN27L2GX) China for stifling innovation. Chinese regulators [squashed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Y16VU6wsQpOaP5bwzUgFf/articles/10lyNbTzg1HbB3563ygUqe) the historic IPO just two days before it was scheduled. Ma's other company __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ — aka: the "Amazon of China" — owns 33% of Ant, so the stock dropped on the news. 


Lows

...and who's down

🏨 Marriott's shocking pandemic profit

__Swipe Night is the new Date Night...__ Forget a five-course meal at Catch — the biggest date nights this summer were happening on Tinder. __[Match Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ (aka: the Godfather of online dating) grew sales 18% last quarter as social distancing turned into social swiping.

- __Average subscribers jumped 12%__ to nearly 11M, as the possibility of meet-cutes vanished. People shelled out more $$$ for premium swipey perks.
- __Tinder's sales grew 15%__ thanks to Tinder Premium and virtual events like Swipe Night, which reeled in 15M viewers and record engagement. 
- __As the flirtiest of all stocks,__ Match is getting popular— shares are up 60% in 2020. But Tinder isn't its only asset...

__Tell me about yourself...__  Over half of Match's sales come from Tinder, but *non*-Tinder brands saw the biggest growth last quarter. The shining star was Hinge, which more than [tripled](https://s22.q4cdn.com/279430125/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/Earnings-Letter-Q3-2020-vF.pdf) sales from last year and nearly 2X'd downloads. Before Match invested in 2018, Hinge downloads were dropping. Since Match took Hinge under its Cupid wings, downloads have consistently grown. Clever marketing campaigns like "Designed to Be Deleted" were [key](https://redantler.com/work/case-study/hinge-campaign) to that.


"_What about Hinge? Have you tried Hinge?_"

Date

__The focus is variety...__ To successfully penetrate the TAM (total addressable market) of singles around the globe, Match is going both broad *and* narrow. It's targeting specific markets with “demographic dating apps” like Chispa for Latinos/Latinas and BLK for Black singles. Given their success, it followed on with Upward for Christian singles. With variety, Match can attract users who want a more tailored experience (or don't like the sound of Tinder).

Tinder-owner Match gets high on pandemic loneliness and remote romance

__Bank of Nook just got a fat deposit...__ __[Nintendo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NTDOY)__ released its financials for the six months ended September 30th, and things are looking super good for old Mario.

- __Profit more than tripled__ as Nintendo sold 14M+ copies of hit game *Animal Crossing: New Horizons* — apparently, fictional island utopias fare well during pandemics. 
- __Sales jumped 73%__ as *Animal Crossing* and Mario drove big software *and* hardware sales. Nintendo [sold](https://www.engadget.com/nintendo-switch-lite-sales-paper-mario-3d-all-stars-earnings-082905737.html) nearly 7M Switch consoles in just the last 3-month quarter.

__Cool hardware needs cool software...__ to be worth anything. The Switch has been around for almost four years, but the  *Animal Crossing* frenzy turbocharged sales. Still, there are two Bowsers that could put a damper in Nintendo's 2020 glory...

- __Console Wars:__ Next week, two long-awaited consoles are dropping (*on the same day*): __[Sony](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNE)__'s PS5 and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__'s Xbox Series X. Switch will get some fresh hot competition.
- __Cloud Gaming:__ Games that you can play with just a laptop and WiFi are a threat to Nintendo. Sony has Playstation Now, Google has Stadia, and Microsoft [has](https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/microsoft-xbox-project-xcloud-really-is-a-netflix-for-games/) its "Netflix for games." Even __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ offer cloud gaming.


Switch

__Nintendo is family-friendly...__ It's the Apple MacBook to Microsoft's PS5 "PC." It's winning with wholesome, fun-for-all games like *Animal Crossing* and *Super Mario Origami King* — not *Assassin's Creed* and *GTA*. Since its Game Boy days, Nintendo has built a rep as the easy-to-use, less-hardcore gaming option. This mainstream appeal gives it a leg up over competitors.   

Nintendo levels up on Animal Crossing hype, but now the Console Wars are here

🔥 Tinder's flirtiest quarter 

__Saved by the ballot...__ App-based driving companies are majorly relieved after CA voters said "Yes" to Prop 22. That exempts them from CA's AB5 law, which would've forced them to reclassify gig drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO, paid sick leave). 

- __"The Ride Scare"...__ In August, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ said they'd shut down in CA because it was forcing them to follow AB5 (cue: panic). Hours before the shutdown, regulators said they could wait until the Prop 22 vote.
- __$200M and 200M emails later...__ Uber, Lyft, __DoorDash__, __Postmates__, and __Instacart__ spent $200M to support the Prop (and spammed us with notifications). It was the [most](https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-voters-exempt-uber-lyft-doordash-from-having-to-reclassify-drivers-11604476276?mod=business_lead_pos1) expensive campaign for any ballot measure in CA history. 

__Deliver the deets...__ This law would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps even *more* unprofitable. Now they'll [save](https://www.newsweek.com/california-voters-saved-gig-economy-workers-may-pay-heavy-price-1544863) billions of $$$ in a key market. Uber and Lyft shares soared more than 10% yesterday. 

- __Drivers get:__ New benefits like health insurance if you work 15 hours or more per week and at least 120% of minimum wage. They also retain flexibility to work when they want.
- __Riders avoid:__ Up to 2X price increases and fewer available drivers. Uber would likely have dramatically reduced drivers if the Prop failed.


_Christmas came early for Uber and Lyft_

Deliver

__It's a massive blow to AB5...__ Gig companies were the main target of this law. Now that they're exempt, that just leaves other independent contractors like freelancers. But AB5 has caused some companies to *stop* hiring CA freelancers to avoid paying them as employees. Vox [cut](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/media/vox-media-california-job-cuts.html) 200 freelance writers to comply with AB5. That's why CA has been handing out exemptions and loosening requirements.


Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash score a gigantic win as CA voters save the gig economy

__*2,000 years later*...__ (in SpongeBob voice). As Americans watched election results slowly trickle in yesterday, only one thing seemed clear: the likelihood of a divided Congress (the sequel). This Democrat-controlled House and  Republican-controlled Senate excited one sector: Big Tech. 

- __A divided Congress makes it harder__ to pass legislation against tech giants. Both sides have major beef with Big Tech, but their grievances are *different* (sometimes, opposite).
- __A Blue Wave in Congress__ could've brought big changes to Big Tech. That doesn't seem to be happening, reducing the chance of major reform.
- __So investors boosted Big Tech.__ The Nasdaq surged yesterday as __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ stock jumped 8% and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ spiked 6%.

__Big Gambling...__ also made some election-related moves. Voters in Maryland, Louisiana, and South Dakota said "Yes" to legalized sports betting, sending __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__ and __[Penn National Gaming](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PENN)__ shares up over 5%. Also making waves:

- __Big Weed:__ Arizona, New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota [voted](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/11/04/4-states-vote-to-legalize-recreational-marijuana-use-arizona-montana-nj-south-dakota/?sh=542ad771558f) to legalize recreational marijuana. Oregon took it a step further, becoming the 1st to [legalize](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/oregon-becomes-first-state-to-legalize-magic-mushrooms-as-more-states-ease-drug-laws.html) magic shrooms for medical treatment. 
- __Buuut...__ Big Pot stocks __[Canopy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__, __[Aurora](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB)__, and __[Tilray](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TLRY)__ actually *dropped* because they [want](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2WSPzJTYnHk30wYwZxmDQO/articles/46Vmobj3VwyQorpkAl0ghs) legalization at the *federal* level. A Republican Senate makes that unlikely.

Track

__The 1st reaction isn’t always the long-term one...__ Stocks react to news all the time — but long-term, there's a lot we still don't know. For example, it's possible that a divided House *could* pass laws that  significantly hurt Big Tech — or [green light](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/04/marijuana-house-vote-federal-legalization-first-time/5678068002/) weed. 

Stocks react to election results: we break down sector moves, from Big Tech to pot

🚗 Uber & Lyft's Prop 22 victory

__Well, that was unexpected...__ __Ant Group__ is the Chinese fintech giant that was [*supposed*](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/ant-group-ipo-in-shanghai-suspended.html) to go public  tomorrow in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Think of Ant's Alipay app as a Financial Franken-App: it offers every money service imaginable — from payments to loans to insurance and investing (*all in one*).

- __Alipay has over 1B users__, making it the biggest financial app in the world. That's 3X the number of __[Paypal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__ users and 3X the US population.
- __Ant was on track to raise over $34B__ in its IPO, which would make it the largest ever. *Then things got weird...*
- __The IPO was suspended__ due to vague regulatory reasons that disqualified it from listing on the Chinese market.

__*Can I get a refund?*...__ Ant had already raised big money  from institutional investors who subscribed to its IPO. These VIPs — like mutual funds and brokerages — are the ones who actually *buy* the stock "initially" during its Initial Public Offering (before it's available to the rest of us). If the stock price goes up when shares hit the market, the VIPs make money. Ant [apologized](https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-int/china-slams-the-brakes-on-ant-groups-37-billion-listing-idUSKBN27J1MY) to investors and plans to return the $$$ it collected.

_Ant Group, you shall not pass_

Stop

__Politics is a market risk...__ We don't really know why regulators squashed Ant, but the Chinese government's controlling-ness is [likely](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-02/jack-ma-summoned-by-china-financial-regulators-on-eve-of-ant-ipo?sref=q3KSFp38) behind it.  __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ (aka: the Amazon of China) saw its stock drop 8% yesterday because it owns 33% of Ant. In its *own* IPO papers, Alibaba said that changes in the Chinese government's policies could hurt its biz. That seems to be proving true for Ant, too.


Ant, the biggest IPO ever, shockingly gets squashed last-minute

__Nailed it with the name change...__ A one-syllable word, and the VC cash comes flooding in. __Reef__, formerly called ParkJockey, just [raised](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/02/reef-technology-raises-1-billion-from-softbank-and-others-to-remake-parking-lots/) an eye-popping $700M to turn underused parking lots into “neighborhood hubs.” Reef leases and manages lots, providing the hardware, software, and electricity needed to transform them into something... less boring.

- __Proximity-as-a-service:__ Reef wants to bring delivery-only kitchens, health clinics, and retail pop-ups to your neighborhood lot.
- __It's *kind of* like WeWork,__ minus the kombucha on tap and the controversy. Makes sense (or not at all) that WeWork investor __[SoftBank](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFTBY)__ led this deal.

__If you can dream it...__ *you can disrupt it.* Reef [started](https://thespoon.tech/reef-technology-raises-700m-to-reinvent-the-neighborhood-including-ghost-kitchens/) as a "disruptor of parking lots" (whoa) with its management business. Now it's a real estate play with 4.8K locations, and plans to grow to 10K with the fresh $$$. Its big focus:

- __Ghost kitchens:__ Restaurants like BurgerFi are using trailers/shipping containers in Reef's lots to dole out deliveries faster.
- __Reef has over 100 kitchens__ in North America, and expects they'll make up “a significant part” of non-parking sales.


WePark

__Mobility is power...__ You've probably noticed more "For Lease" signs on Main Street. Brick-and-mortar shops are sadly shuttering because they can't afford rent when sales are barely coming in.  Over 100K restaurants have [closed](https://restaurant.org/news/pressroom/press-releases/100000-restaurants-closed-six-months-into-pandemic) since the first COVID shutdowns. Mobile rental units *could* give restaurants the flexibility to stay afloat and test digital concepts — without the burden of running a full-on storefront.

Reef, the WeWork of parking lots, raises $700M to dish out mobile kitchens 

 🐜  The biggest IPO ever: squashed

__*I'm a croc-star, not a doctor*...__ __[Crocs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CROX)__ has evolved from "the ugly shoe" company to the celebrity shoe company. Since 2018, Crocs has collabed with stars like Post Malone, Luke Combs, and Korean rapper Psy (Gangnam Style). The KFC x Crocs partnership [proved](https://www.businessinsider.com/kfc-crocs-sold-out-less-than-half-an-hour-after-launch-2020-7) that the biggest star of all is a fried chicken wing. Now, Crocs is sticking even more celeb charms in its clog holes: 

- __Justin Bieber:__ Bieber's yellow clogs [reportedly](https://6abc.com/justin-bieber-crocs-shoes-fashion-launches-design/7018173/#:~:text=The%20popular%20crocs%20even%20crashed%20the%20website.&text=NEW%20YORK%20%2D%2D%20People%20put,appeared%20to%20crash%20the%20website) crashed the Crocs site when they dropped (still sold out). Crocs stock jumped 11% when Biebs teased the collab on IG.
- __Bad Bunny:__ The Puerto Rican rapper's $60 glow-in-the-dark Crocs [sold out](https://www.insider.com/bad-bunny-crocs-glow-in-the-dark-jibbitz-charms-2020-9) in less than 30 minutes. He Like It Like That. 

__Ariana, Selena, my Visa...__ These Bieber-faced collabs have paid off. Last quarter, Crocs' sales rose 16% from last year to a record $362M, and profit nearly *doubled*. The greatest growth was in the Americas  — but sales also spiked in Europe, the Croc-shaming capital of the world.


_He's a croc-star, not a doctor_

Biebs

__Functional is the new fashionable...__ during this COVID anti-fashion moment. From bulky sweats to fuzzy socks, whatever's comfy for Zoom'ing and grabbing the mail wins. That's why Crocs sales are up 48% this year, while US footwear sales are *down* 20%, [according](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/style/bad-bunny-crocs.html) to a research analyst. Crocs stock (fun to say) has nearly 5X'd in value since the market tanked in March. As far as we know, it's the only pure-play ugly shoe stock. 

Crocs is a thriving Belieber thanks to celebrity-studded collabs

__Nespress yourself...__ As America's largest food company, __[Nestlé](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NSRGY)__ makes everything from Hot Pockets to Kit Kats — and anything that begins with "Nes" (presso, tea, quik). Now, Nestlé's expressing its love for all things edible with a meal delivery purchase:

- __Nestlé USA is buying Freshly__ for up to $1.5B. The healthy meal subscription startup sends you buttered salmon and kale to heat up between Zoom calls. 
- __Freshly ships more than 1M meals per week__ across 48 states, and expects $430M in sales for 2020. But don't expect any Nesquik boxes...

__*Say it again*...__ Freshly’s CEO [wants](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/30/nestle-acquires-freshly/) to make it *veryyy* clear that Nestlé *won't* be a cook in its kitchen: “Our meals will not be changing...there are no plans to change ingredients or integrate Nestlé products into Freshly meals” (burn). Freshly will run as a standalone biz, and pricing won't change.  

- __What Nestlé gets:__ A promising company in a fast-growing, pandemic-friendly industry.
- __What Freshly gets:__ $950M, with possibly $550M extra. Freshly can scale faster with Nestlé cash — it's already planning to triple its menu offerings with the fresh $$$. 


Heat

__Big shots can afford to be late...__ Nestlé was an early investor in Freshly — in 2017 it snatched a 16% stake to "evaluate" the up-and-coming meal delivery market. Now Nestlé has decided it's safe to go all in (you think?). Massive companies can afford to be late to trends because they can buy *already*-successful companies, skipping the time and risk needed to build from scratch.

Nestlé shows up late to buy meal delivery startup Freshly for up to $1.5B

🎵  Crocs' popstar moment 

__Thank you for your ad-tention...__ Tech giant’s ad sales bounced back  last quarter as things "normalized" (*by 2020 standards*). When lockdowns started, brands slashed spend because that Kylie Lip Kit ad is worthless when your biggest outing is taking out the trash (in a mask). This summer, brands slowed/paused spend in reaction to US civil unrest. But lately, they’ve unleashed an ad-avalanche:

- __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ got its redemption. After its 1st-ever sales decline in the previous quarter, ad sales jumped 10% from last year to *$37B*. YouTube was the star, with ads up 32% (more skipping for us).
- __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB):__ The ad boycott didn't dent sales, which popped 22% from last year to *$21.4B*. 
- __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ crushed expectations. Ad sales grew 15% to $808M.

__Facebook's peanuts = Snap's dinner...__ Over 1K advertisers — including big shots like __Verizon__  — [paused](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/53ExK4qFnO6TgaRpz8Ssnl/articles/6BImPvOi9lK0nl5oMKNwcO/) ads on Facebook in July to protest  hate speech and misinformation policies. But FB now has 10M active advertisers, up from 9M in July. While the boycott didn't hurt Zuck, it fed the smaller networks:

- __[Pinterest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PINS)__'s sales rose 58% to $443M as marketers shifted ad spend to the way more wholesome social network. That's still crumbs compared to FB's earnings cake.
- __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__'s sales shot up 52% to $679M as advertisers moved to the not-so-wholesome (but way less controversial) app. 

_Emerging post-ad-pocalypse like_

Ad-iction

__Always have a plan B...__ because plan A(d) is unpredictable. Uncertainty around the pandemic, the election, and intense Congressional scrutiny means spend could be unreliable. So ad Goliaths are looking to other $$ sources: Facebook will start [charging](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/facebook-to-charge-for-whatsapp-business-services.html) for WhatsApp Business. Twitter will begin testing other money-makers (possibly a paid subscription). And Google will have to do *something* since Apple's [building](https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-now-shows-its-own-search-results-threatening-google-ios14-2020-10) its own search engine.


Ad-pocalypse (not) Now: Facebook, Google, and Twitter rebound on more ads

__Darth Bezos rises...__ on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__'s insane quarter. In three months,  the Zon brought in *$96.1B* in sales, breaking its record high from the previous quarter as we 1-Click ordered rice cookers. Profit [*tripled*](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/64dl6Er3uOxlFSO2nPzcbo/articles/4TGtOEkORwmgedvXqBc3pk) from the same quarter last year to a ginormous $6.3B. But the stock fell because Amazon's weirdly expecting to rake in less profit during the holiday quarter than it did last quarter.  

__A gassy surprise...__ __[Shell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RDS.A)__ was one of the few stocks to jump while the market plunged last week. The oil giant surprisingly [decided](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/shell-earnings-q3-2020.html) to boost its [dividend](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/6jGOO5O2YvyoZzlEUtIq0F/what-is-a-dividend/#:~:text=Dividends%20are%20when%20a%20company,to%20be%20issued%20in%20cash.) payout to shareholders, just 6 months after *reducing* it for the 1st time since WWII. Despite beating (low) expectations, Shell's quarterly earnings were just $955M, compared to $4.8B last year. That's still better than __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__, __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__, and __[BP](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BP)__, which each saw yet *another* quarter of losses as COVID continues to slam oil. 


__Doesn't taste ripe...__ __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ stock dropped on news that iPhone sales were down 20% last quarter. That's unappetizing to investors, since phones make up a huge slice of the Fruit's business: iPhones generated 52% of total sales last year, but just 41% last quarter. Macs, iPads, Wearables, and Services all saw double-digit growth — but Apple's *overall* sales were barely [up](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/apple-aapl-earnings-q4-2020.html) from last year. We'll see if the new iPhone 12 helps in the *next* earnings (it wasn't on sale yet last quarter).

__*Why you always in a mood?*...__ __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ stock tanked 15% for the week after the Swedish streamer [missed](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spotify-premium-revenue-misses-expectations-134450864.html) on Premium sales  expectations and posted a loss. But Spotify [outperformed](https://www.reuters.com/article/spotify-tech-results/spotify-adds-more-subscribers-as-music-streaming-gets-back-on-track-idUSKBN27E1NF) on subscriber *growth*: monthly listeners jumped 29% to 320M, and Premium subscribers were up 27%. Mid-pandemic, your lack of a commute meant Spotify lost hours of pod streaming and aggressive song switching. Now, Spotify's in-car listening has rebounded and overall streaming has *surpassed* pre-pandemic levels.


🎤 Live Nation's (COVID-free) live summer

🚙 Lyft's uneventful 2020

💄 Ulta moves into Target

💉 Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough

🏨 Marriott's shocking pandemic profit

🔥 Tinder's flirtiest quarter

🚗 Uber & Lyft's Prop 22 victory

🐜 The biggest IPO ever: squashed

🎵 Crocs' popstar moment

🛍 Facebook, Twitter, and Google's ad roundup