__One year later...__ A major vaccine rollout effort is underway to curb a virus which has killed 2M people globally and ~420K Americans so far. How it started: Since the US rollout began on December 14th, ~41M doses of __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ and __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__'s Covid-19 vaccines have been distributed. How it's going: just over 3M people have received the full two doses (less than 1% of Americans). Why so anticlimactic? 

- __Most of the rollout was left up to the states,__ which don't have enough health care staff and infrastructure to support the target pace.
- __President Biden is aiming for 100M vaccinations__ in his first 100 days as prez. But Congress would need to approve his $1.9T [proposal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/49RzO2EFs5wK6FlcAGzWGy/), which includes $20B to build federal vax sites, hire healthcare workers, and launch an education campaign.
- __Some small countries with centralized healthcare__ are moving faster. Israel has vaccinated 42 people out of every 100, while the United Arab Emirates has vaccinated 25/100. Meanwhile, the US’s rate is 6/100 people, and China’s is barely 1/100 people. 

__Prime Vax this thing...__ Early in the pandemic, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to get companies like 3M to make masks and GM to make ventilators. Now, American companies are stepping up on their own to scale vax distribution:

- __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ plans to offer the vaccine at 5K US locations, starting in seven states this week. It hopes to deliver 10M to 13M doses a month. 150M people already pass through its doors weekly.
- __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ wrote a letter to Biden offering its logistical expertise. It also signed an agreement with a healthcare provider to administer vaccines at its US warehouses, and partnered with a Seattle hospital to offer vaccinations at its HQ yesterday.
- __[Starbucks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SBUX), [Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST), and [Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ are partnering with the state of Washington to deliver vaccines to hospitals and vax sites.

__*What's in it for them?*...__ Priority vaccination for employees, and goodwill with customers + the government. Amazon, Walmart, and Starbs have aggressively lobbied to gain early vaccine access for workers. Amazon and Walmart combined have *3M+* employees — vaccinating them reduces risk to their operations.


Prime Vax?

Distro

__The US government isn’t built for efficiency at scale...__ but big US companies *are*. They have the tech, work force, and distribution networks to deliver things quickly countrywide. They've reached "efficient scale" thanks to tough competition (cough, Walmart vs. Amazon), which pushes them to provide quality and convenience at competitive prices. And the pandemic only expanded their capabilities. They have huge reach, but also have streamlined leadership — making them the perfect candidates to speed up vaccine rollout long-term.


Vaccine rollout: why the government needs Amazon and Walmart

__If it has a royal title...__ *it's probably a hit*. __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ shares surged to a record high last week on some #streamy numbers. The Flix now has 200M+ paid subscribers (double from 2017). 100M+ households have watched *The Crown* to date, and 62M watched *The Queen's Gambit* in its first 28 days. Investors also got excited about positive [cash flow](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6A4i5DEOmrdBlnl7pPSa1b/articles/3I3iCjDTF4yofNLN1txTnT/): Netflix had more money coming in than going out last year, and expects to be sustainably cash flow positive after 2021. It says it doesn't need to borrow or raise money anymore (read: strong, independent streamer).

__Splurging on organic Tide pods...__ It's the little things. __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/pg)__ is the company behind Tide, Crest, Gillette, and pretty much anything that lives near a sink. P&G's sales jumped 8% last quarter — impressive for a 183-year-old consumer goods giant. It also took home a squeaky clean $3.9B profit. Those numbers were partly fueled by demand for fancier household products. Think: premium dish soap, $100 electric toothbrushes, and paper towels (4-ply).


Highs

Who's up...

__Like a soggy Biscoff cookie...__ __[United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL)__ shares descended 4% for the week, after the airline revealed it [lost](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/united-airlines-ceo-says-too-early-to-predict-when-the-carrier-will-break-even.html) $1.9B last quarter. United's sales plunged nearly 70% from a year earlier —  and CEO Scott Kirby wasn't upbeat about a recovery anytime soon: Kirby said a “critical mass” of people need to be vaccinated before passengers return, and declined to estimate when the airline would stop losing money. Meanwhile, __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ is seeing the champagne glass half full: it lost $755M last quarter, but expects to be profitable this summer.

__What's up, doc?...__ Bad week all around for companies called United. __[UnitedHealth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UNH)__'s profit dropped to ~$400M last quarter, down from $2B+ in the same period a year earlier. Back in July, United [posted](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/695acOxqA9l0V9Q9Xp38oj/articles/6TuKPDyMpL7gPV2Z8tHuP7/) its most profitable quarter *ever*, courtesy of your canceled doc visit: the insurance giant collected premiums while reducing payouts, as you postponed physical therapy. All those pent-up visits turned into "revenge visits" this fall, so United had a bigger bill.

Lows

...and who's down

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

🏥  Walmart, Amazon, and the vaccine rollout 

__Not the Go-Gurt type...__ When a Kurdish businessman from Turkey took over a shuttered __Kraft__ yogurt plant in New York, Chobani was just a cool sound. 15 years later, it's the most famous Greek yogurt brand in America — with an [estimated](https://www.forbes.com/sites/denizcam/2019/11/18/chobani-yogurt-founder-ulukaya-announces-companys-move-into-oat-milk/?sh=3903558d5334) $1.5B+ in yearly sales. 

- __But yogurt peaked circa 2015,__ so Chobani got on the oat train, launching oat milks and creamers in late 2019. The logical next step...
- __Chobani's launching coffee.__ The new line of ready-to-drink (RTD) coffees: sweet cream cold brew, cold brew with vanilla creamer, and oat milk cold brew (theme: cold brew).

__Not the Star Wars robot...__ That's R2-D2. RTD coffee is one of the fastest growing segments of the non-alcoholic bev industry: sales surged 17% from October 2019 to October 2020. Basically, the hard seltzer of the caffeine world. You're not doing your typical morning Starbs run. Instead, you have a Starbucks RTD can in the fridge for your 8 am Zoom call — or if you're fancy, a Trader Joe's La Colombe. Chobani will face big competition with Starbucks and Stok, which own over 70% of the $4.6B RTD coffee market, combined. 


__It's "Branded House" vs. "House of Brands"...__ We’ve seen Big Food companies expand from their core product to entirely new brands — *by acquiring or creating sub-brands*. __[Kellogg](https://robinhood.com/stocks/K)__ started with corn flakes, but now owns brands from Cheez-Its, to Pringles — *but you still associate it with cereal*. __[Kraft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KHC)__ is known for mac-n-cheese, but owns Planters peanuts, Jell-O, Capri Sun, and every other brand in your 3rd grade lunch (shoutout Lunchables). Chobani represents the opposite: a single branded house that’s putting its own powerful brand front-and-center to develop new product lines.

Chobani gets ready-to-drink coffee: the hottest, coldest beverage trend

__As sexy as frozen broccoli...__  __[Travelers](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TRV)__ is one of America's largest sellers of insurance to businesses and car owners — it offers everything from condo, to home, and renters' insurance (contain your excitement). While insurance may not get your heart racing, Traveler's latest quarterly earnings juuust might:

- __Profit soared 50% last quarter__ to $1.3B, up from $873M a year earlier.
- __But total *sales* were up just 4%__ for the quarter. What's with the massive profit jump?

__Do less...__ Already did. We did way less driving, traveling, and general moving-around-ing in 2020. Travelers’ car and home insurance profits [soared](https://www.wsj.com/articles/travelerss-net-written-premiums-rise-under-3-in-fourth-quarter-11611230451#:~:text=Travelers%20TRV%202.93%25%20Cos.%20net,driving%2C%20resulting%20in%20fewer%20wrecks.) 40% from October to December last year while the third wave of US Covid cases hit. The forever-at-home life had us driving way less, which meant fewer accidents for Travelers to cover. 

- __Travelers was still collecting premiums__ while we were WFH'ing (but it spent significantly less on coverage). 
- __That means more profit__ — especially since Travelers didn't issue any refunds for the lower mileage, like some other insurers did.


Sure

__Some companies are earnings benchmarks...__ With insurance earnings season kicking off, analysts watched Travelers to gauge how *other* car insurers might've performed. "Less mileage, more profit" could be true for others, too. Meanwhile, health care earnings might be less rosy, based on __[UnitedHealth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UNH)__'s latest report: after [posting](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/695acOxqA9l0V9Q9Xp38oj/articles/6TuKPDyMpL7gPV2Z8tHuP7/) its most profitable quarter ever in July, United saw quarterly earnings plunge as you *finally* returned to the doc's office. All those postponed "revenge" visits = more bills for UnitedHealth.

Less driving and "revenge visits" leads to A Tale of Two Insurance Profits

_XOXO, Chobani_

🥛 Chobani's "Branded House"

__Can you please forgive me?...__ *Not a text from your ex*. During his campaign, President Biden (whoa) [suggested](https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2020/12/23/biden-says-he-is-unlikely-to-cancel-50000-in-student-loan-debt-by-executive-order/?sh=5b611b5515b6) he would support $10K of broad student loan forgiveness. Wild stat: about [~42M](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-owes-all-that-student-debt-and-whod-benefit-if-it-were-forgiven/) Americans (1 in 8) hold $1.5T worth of student loans combined. Also: Black and Hispanic borrowers are much [more](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2018-student-loans-and-other-education-debt.htm) likely than white borrowers to be behind on their loan repayment, exacerbating the racial wealth gap. In his campaign [plan](https://joebiden.com/beyondhs/), Biden proposed a few ways to ease the big debt burden:

- __Offer $10K of federal student debt relief__ for every year of national or community service someone performs (for up to five years). Think: public school teachers, police officers, and Peace Corps.
- __Give a free pass__ to people making $25K or less per year (no loan or interest payments required). Also: make public college tuition-free for families making under $125K.
- __Forgive federal loans after 20 years__ for everyone else who has responsibly made payments, and significantly reduce the overall payment.

__But will it happen?...__ Biden has already [said](https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2020/12/23/biden-says-he-is-unlikely-to-cancel-50000-in-student-loan-debt-by-executive-order/?sh=5b611b5515b6) he's "unlikely" to forgive $50K of student loan debt, which progressive Democrats (like Sen. Elizabeth Warren) are pressuring him to do. $50K sounds fantastic, but nearly [70%](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/04/24/how-progressive-is-senator-elizabeth-warrens-loan-forgiveness-proposal/) of Warren's proposed benefit would go to the top 40% of households (higher earners  hold most of the student debt). As for Biden's $10K eraser and the other relief, there are three reasons it doesn't seem likely to happen in the near future:

__1.__ __Biden isn't doing this via executive order:__ Instead, his admin [signaled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-executive-orders-watch-live-stream-today-2021-01-20/) they'll go through Congress, which will be a lengthier, more complex process.

__2.__ __It's not in the stimulus proposal:__ Biden's massive $1.9T [proposal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/44rp3bUdom0Q5pREmL0SR1/articles/49RzO2EFs5wK6FlcAGzWGy/) covers a lot — but not student debt.

__3. Biden *just* extended student loan payment deferrals:__  Last year, Congress suspended payments and waived interest from March to September. *Then*, Trump extended that to January 2021. *Now*, Biden has extended deferrals to October 2021. But some see it as an either/or situation.


Forgive

__Biden chose the least costly option...__ to achieve the same effect (for now). The eight-month deferral of student loan payments stimulates the pandemic economy similarly to how lowering/canceling payments would: in both cases, you're not required to pay during the pandemic — which (in theory) means you have more $$ in a tough economy. Meanwhile, this deferral scenario doesn't bloat the (already huge) national debt. If Biden *does* go for loan forgiveness, he'll likely target households that need it most.


Biden's big student loan forgiveness plan: will it happen?

__Tiger King's Gambit...__ __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ stock [soared](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/netflix-stock-soars-13percent-on-subscriber-growth-and-possible-buybacks.html) 17% yesterday, its biggest one-day gain in four years — oh, and it also hit an all-time high. Netflix's latest quarterly earnings made investors hot and streamy. Some numbers:

- __200M+:__ Netflix's paid subscriber count, double from 2017.
- __100M__ households have watched *The Crown* to date, and 62M watched *The Queen's Gambit* in its first 28 days (Netflix *thrives* on shows with royal titles).

__Rolling with the (cash) flow...__ Netflix's quarterly sales growth has been slowing — and its quarterly profit actually *fell* compared to a year earlier. But analysts got all giddy over one thing: [cash flow](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/1QCiYedr0qDRD2EoXHJuI5/what-is-cash-flow/). The Flix said it expects to become sustainably cash flow positive after 2021.

- __Cash flow positive__ = having more money coming in than going out over a given time period. If you made $3K from your job this month, but spent $2K, you're cash flow positive (#ey).
- Netflix has been paying for its operations (like the outfits in *Bridgerton*) by borrowing and raising money. Now it has enough cash on hand — $8.2B — that it doesn't need to raise more. 
- __BTW:__ Netflix is profitable, but it's possible for a company to be cash flow positive and *not* profitable. Big loans can inflate cash flows but don't directly boost profit.

_Netflix's royal cash flow_

Flix

__It's all about sharing the wealth...__ *with shareholders*. Companies that are cash flow positive are generally more likely to return cash to investors, either through dividends or through stock buybacks. As it approaches “being sustainably cash flow positive," Netflix said it'll explore more stock buybacks — which boost the price of shares by reducing their availability. *But investors are also patient*: it took Netflix 23 years to get to this point.

Netflix shares jump the most in four years — investors are feeling (cash flow) positive

🎓  Student loan forgiveness...?

__Get DJ D-Sol in here...__ __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GS)__ is celebrating shockingly good earnings — good thing its CEO David Solomon (aka: DJ D-Sol) is [tight](https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/business/hamptons-concert-goldman-sachs-ceo-chainsmokers/index.html) with The Chainsmokers. 

- __Profit more than doubled__ last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, clocking in at $4.5B — and a whopping $9.5B for the full 2020 year. 
- __And it's not thanks to your savings account...__ Investment banking revenues jumped 27% last quarter, while Equities revenues soared 40%.

__On a scale of Main Street to Wall Street...__ Goldman is basically the show *Billions* (aka: Wall Street Extreme) — at least compared to retail-friendly banking peers like __Citi__, __BoA__, and even __JPMorgan Chase__. Apart from its Marcus savings account, Goldman doesn't really cater to us regular folks. Here are some of its big profit puppies:

- __Investment Banking:__ Helping companies like __Airbnb__ and __DoorDash__ sell new shares in an IPO, making mergers/acquisitions happen, underwriting debt, and loans. 
- __Asset Management:__ Managing stock portfolios for pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, universities, and the mega-rich.
- __Equities Trading:__ Making big transactions happen by buying/selling large positions in stocks. Goldman makes money from the bid/ask [spread](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/6ttKzSPbxOq6P32lBN7IF0/what-is-an-ask/#Stock_Market_Spreads).

_When DJ D-Sol drops the beat_

Double

__But investors don't really care about the past...__ They're obsessed with the future. Despite those expectation-crushing earnings, Goldman shares actually *fell* yesterday. Also yesterday: Biden [picked](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/18/economy/biden-wall-street-gensler-sec-elizabeth-warren/index.html) Gary Gensler to lead the SEC. He's an ex-Goldman banker turned hardcore Wall Street regulator (known as one of the toughest under Obama). Gensler + a Dem-controlled Congress could mean more red tape to reign in Big Banks' power — and possibly Goldman's future profits. 

Goldman doubles its profit and crushes earnings — but investors aren't celebrating

__One small step for man...__ *one giant leap for plant-based meat?* __Impossible Foods__ is the privately held rival of publicly traded __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__. Last summer, Impossible raised $200M, got its sausage in Starbucks, and graced 7.5K Burger Kings with its planty Croissan'wich. This latest headline is different — but maybe even more significant:

- __Former UN climate head Christiana Figueres__ will be joining Impossible's board of directors, [according](https://www.axios.com/former-unfccc-executive-director-christiana-figueres-impossible-foods-f288fa9a-77e8-4802-b52a-18c0aa29f9ae.html) to Axios.
-  __As a creator of the Paris climate agreement__, Figueres sees the food industry as "one of the main levers of change" on global warming. That's perfect, since...
- Impossible [calls](https://www.impossiblefoods.com/impact-report-2020) itself an "audacious yet realistic strategy to turn back the clock on climate change and stop the global collapse of biodiversity" (*whoa*).

__pea.protein21 wants to join the convo...__ When we think of companies solving environmental issues, we generally think of EV makers and solar companies — not soy patties. But alt-meat has *three* narratives which people buy into: eating animals  is morally bad, eating animals is "unhealthy," and/or eating animals (especially cows) is *unsustainable*.

- __Impossible + Beyond's burgers__ generate ~90% less greenhouse gas emissions and require dramatically less water & land to grow than beef.
- __Sustainable energy takes the environmental spotlight,__ but Figueres' move could help highlight the impact of food and agriculture, too.


Sustain

__It's a perfect time to grow the conversation...__ Biden has pledged $2T to creating a "clean energy future," which includes subsidies/incentives for green tech. Figueres' experience could help loop plant-based meat into the convo with lawmakers, companies, and consumers. It seems far-fetched, but if public schools and corporate cafeterias got incentivized to buy plant-based, companies like Impossible could take on even fresher relevance. After all, one in four Americans are already [cutting](https://news.gallup.com/poll/282779/nearly-one-four-cut-back-eating-meat.aspx) back on meat-eating.


Impossible's UN climate hire could level up the plant-based conversation

 🍔  One small step for man...

__If stimulus packages were superheroes...__ Enter: “The American Rescue Plan" — Biden's $1.9T proposal to save the US economy. It’s nearly as big as the *first* stimulus we got when Covid/lockdowns hit in March and the US lost 22M jobs. It's more than *twice* as big as the 2009 financial crisis recovery package, and the $900B stimulus that Congress passed last month. Some of what's included:

- __$1.4K direct payments__ to most Americans, bringing the total relief to $2K (including December’s $600 deposits).
- __$400 extra in weekly unemployment__ benefits, extended through September.
- __$350B in state and local government aid__, to help pay for teachers, firefighters, police, vaccine distribution, and other public services.
- __$20B for a national vaccination program__. The  rollout so far has been... underwhelming.
- __$15/hour federal minimum wage__ — more than double the current minimum. 

__Part I...__  This is the first of two big spending initiatives Biden plans to seek during his early days as prez. These proposals align with Democrats’ “bottom-up” economic policy. A quick refresher:

- __Democrats__ tend to favor more government spending and taxation to fund public programs that make society more equitable by expanding the social safety net. Think: the healthcare reform and financial regulation passed during the Obama admin in 2009/2010. 
- __Republicans__ generally look to private sector innovation and tax cuts to support economic growth, job creation, and higher wages. Think: the sweeping tax reform Republicans passed in 2017/2018, which slashed taxes for corporations and lowered individual tax rates.

__Channeling Schoolhouse Rock...__  Biden’s proposals still have to be turned into bills and passed by Congress to actually happen. Democrats' slimmest possible majority in the Senate could mean compromises — most legislation needs 60 Senate votes to pass.


_The Stimulus Reloaded (blue pill edition)_

Money

__This could happen...__ but the package might be much smaller. Both Dems and Republicans believe more aid is needed: 10M+ Americans are still unemployed, and the US started *losing* jobs again in December. But some GOP lawmakers are [uncomfortable](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/01/15/biden-stimulus-gop/) with the $4T+ already spent in response to the pandemic. The national debt increased by almost *$7.8T* under President Trump, clocking in at $27.8T — larger than the size of the US economy. The Fed has been increasing the money supply to keep interest rates low so that America can keep borrowing $$$. But with interest rates ticking up again, some are concerned about inflation + higher taxes down the line.

Biden's big stimulus: what's in the $1.9T proposal, and what it means for the economy

__The TLDR:__ Biden's "Build Back Better" [plan](https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/) is aggressively focused on clean energy and infrastructure. With a slim Congressional majority, Biden might not be able to push through *all* the spending. Buuuut: some initiatives might actually fly with Republicans, while others could be pushed through exec orders.

- __Green energy...__ Three words: "clean energy future." Biden has pledged $2T to clean energy innovation, partly through sustainable infrastructure and subsidies for green tech. Think: more EV charging stations, tax credits for buying electric, and incentives for wind and solar. Subsidies could encourage more delivery companies to buy e-trucks from companies like __[Workhorse](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WKHS)__, __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, and __Rivian__. On the wind and solar side, companies like __[NextEra Energy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NEE)__, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __[First Solar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FSLR)__ could benefit from Biden's goal of a carbon-free power sector by 2035.

- __Infrastructure...__ could see some serious cash flowing in. Biden's plan pledges to "mobilize American manufacturing" to build a modern infrastructure — think: roads, bridges, buildings. Construction icons like __[Caterpillar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CAT)__ and __[John Deere](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DE)__,  and concrete-makers like __[Martin Marietta Materials](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MLM)__ and __[Vulcan Materials](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VMC)__, could benefit from the building frenzy.


Who's (potentially) up...

__The TLDR:__ A Dem-controlled government doesn't mean everything will be a piece of blue cake — especially with a 50/50 Senate where VP-elect Harris holds the tiebreak. But it *does* mean legislation will be easier to pass than it is now (with a Dem-controlled House and a GOP-controlled Senate). Soo...

- __Big Tech...__ could see [bigger](https://apnews.com/article/technology-50e69e921c6699a3edbd730c12292436) regulation efforts. Think: legislation targeting consumer-data privacy, halting Big Tech takeovers, and potential breakups of tech "monopolies," like __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__. Also: reform to Section 230, which protects social media companies from being liable for users' posts. A year ago, Biden even called for 230 to be repealed. Losing 230 immunity would be brutal for __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ and __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ — they could get sued every time someone shared something harmful or false (aka: often). 

- __Big Banks...__ could get hit by hands-on, progressive regulation. Gary Gensler, Biden's [expected](https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-old-foe-of-banks-could-be-wall-streets-new-top-cop-11610773211) pick to lead the SEC, will likely move to reign in Wall Street. And incoming Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown [wants](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/11/sherrod-brown-senate-banking-chair-457692) government-administered bank accounts — and tight financial regulation. Meanwhile: Biden wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% (Trump cut it from 35% to 21%). America's 10 largest banks could see their combined yearly profits slashed by [$7B+](https://www.thebanker.com/World/Americas/US/What-would-a-Biden-presidency-mean-for-US-banks). And investment banking sales could fall for bigshots like __[JPMorgan Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__, __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, and __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__ if capital gains taxes are raised for rich clients. One bright spot: Biden's stimulus could help banks avoid loan losses by helping borrowers.

Who's (potentially) down...

💰 Inauguration Edition: $$, markets, and the economy

__Not a Spice Girl...__ But Posh Spice would be proud. __[Poshmark](https://robinhood.com/stocks/POSH)__ is an online marketplace famous for used clothes, from $6 H&M tanks to $1K Louis bags. Yesterday, Poshmark stock made a splashy debut on the Nasdaq  — we're getting DoorDash/Airbnb [flashbacks](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3dRtKJ3pIUtnX1yDSLVTJY/articles/47zqImTPv4BiAjpmDbiqv4). 

- __Quick refresher:__ VIP investors buy at the IPO price. Based on public demand for the stock, it could open higher/lower when it actually hits the market. Spoiler... 
- __Poshmark stock *more than doubled*__ from its $42 IPO price, opening at $97.50 and closing up 140%. 

__Thrifty is the new trendy...__ Like __[Etsy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ETSY)__, Poshmark benefited from the pandemic e-thrifting surge. Sales jumped 28% to $193M in the first nine months of 2020 — and it even managed to turn a profit. From __ThredUp__, to __[The RealReal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/REAL)__, there's no shortage of places to buy used clothes online. So what makes Poshmark different?

- __It's a social network...__ Posh lets you follow people and brands on a "shopping feed." You can like/comment/share that Lulu Vinyasa Scarf. 
- __It thrives on engagement...__ In 2019, 87% of items purchased on Poshmark were preceded by a like, comment, or offer on its marketplace.
- __It's *obsessed* with community...__ Posh also hosts themed "Posh Parties," live virtual shopping events with curated "showrooms."


_Post-Posh Party_

__Social commerce's secret power = ad targeting...__ "Social commerce" sites are prime real estate for marketers because: 1) your engagement reveals your tastes, and 2) *you're there to shop*. That's partly why __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ [intro'd](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7Fl0kcKPHzNEVEVwnee0Zp/articles/7GbosmnxcsEDfjk2yPdKh6/) "Shops" on Insta. The more a company knows about your splurging habits, the more it can personalize ads. If Poshmark started selling ads, it could make significant $$$ from companies looking to target its 32M (mostly Millennial/Gen Z female) users.

Poshmark stock doubles after IPO — it's social media, but for ecommerce

__Hire more fry cooks...__ Chip demand is extra hot right now. __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ literally had to [shut](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/tech/ford-plant-shutdown-computer-chip-shortage/index.html) down a plant this week because it can't find enough computer chips for its cars. Semiconductors are the backbone of electronics, powering everything from your smartphone to your washing mashing. Only problem? We've got a global semiconductor shortage on our hands.

- __All the WFH'ing...__ ate up all the chips. From Chromebooks, to PlayStations, to cloud computing everything — our pandemic needs called for *a lot* of semi-conducting.
- __That new car for the 'burbs...__ helped US car sales [rebound](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/11/tech/ford-plant-shutdown-computer-chip-shortage/index.html) quicker than expected. Ford isn't the only one who's chip-hungry: the average car contains 50 to 150 chips.
- __All those headlines about 5G...__ hyped up demand for 5G smartphones, which (spoiler) pumped up demand for 5G chips. 

__Why so cyclical?...__ The semiconductor industry is driven by innovation cycles. In order to survive, companies have to constantly churn out new products as they race for the fanciest chip. By the time they've scaled production of the hottest new chip, there's a *hotter* new chip on the market... and then they have overstock. Meanwhile: chip size has shrunk to less than a nail clipping, while the costs of production have surged. 


Heat

__The industry is consolidating to prep for the next lull...__ between chip innovations. Chip companies are merging to cut costs, scale faster, and stay profitable (#synergy). In September, __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__ said it was buying chip designer __Arm__ for a whopping $40B. Then in October, __[AMD](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMD)__ agreed to buy chip maker __Xilinx__ for $35B. And __[Qualcomm](https://robinhood.com/stocks/QCOM)__ just announced a $1.4B acquisition of a 5G chip startup. In this super high-volume, high-tech industry... you need to stay huge to stay competitive.


The Great Chip Shortage (it's kind of affecting everyone)

👛  Poshmark's double IPO pop  

__Straight outta CES...__ __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ stock hit an all-time high after the Detroit OG unveiled some not-so-OG projects at the Consumer Electronics Show. The real bright spot was BrightDrop, a new unit focused on all things electric delivery — from EVs to route optimization software. GM is pitching it as a one-stop-shop for delivery fleets. Here's what BrightDrop's dropping in 2021:

- __"Electric pallet":__ The EP1 is basically a techy container with wheels. It moves packages over short distances (think: from delivery van to your door). 
- __Electric van:__ The zero-emission EV600 gets 250 miles per charge, and is designed to load/unload EP1s. __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__ has dibs on the first 500. 
- __Not for 2021...__ GM [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/gm-shares-hit-record-high-on-electric-van-and-flying-car-potential-plans.html) insane-looking designs for flying taxis and self-driving shuttles (feat. scissor doors).

__*If you’ve got the battery*...__ you've literally got the power. GM's getting it from its next-gen battery system, Ultium. It's as intense as it sounds: GM says Ultium gets up to 450 miles per charge, at nearly 40% less cost than its current batteries. GM has spent billions to make Ultium the base for its future EVs, like the GMC Hummer EV pickup. This new BrightDrop van will be the first commercial vehicle using Ultium.


_The electric plot thickens_

Recharge

__Investors want a story...__ and now they're buying GM's. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__'s story — "accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy" —  gets investors going (it's provocative). GM is a 113-year-old company known for trucks built "like a rock." But now that it's investing $27B in electric and autonomous vehicles, the story has transformed. The new narrative: an “all-electric vehicle future," complete with zero-emission delivery ecosystems. The record stock price = investors' seal of approval.


GM shares hit a record high on a futuristic delivery vision

__Sooo, what's a routing number again?...__ __Plaid__ is the "financial bouncer" that you don't see, but you've probably used. It connects your old school Citi or Chase bank account to fintech apps like Venmo, Square, and Robinhood. Plaid grabs your bank account login info, verifies it, then links it — all without those pesky routing/account numbers.

__Sounds cool...__ __[Visa](https://robinhood.com/stocks/V)__ thinks so, too. A year ago, Visa announced it would whip out its card to buy Plaid for $5.3B. Visa's strategy: keep your friends close, and your (potential) enemies acquired. The Department of Justice, which prides itself on crushing monopolies, wasn't feeling the vibe.

- __Two months ago,__ the DOJ filed an antitrust lawsuit saying the merger would limit competition in the payments industry. 
- __*Now*,__ Visa and Plaid are [canceling](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2021/01/12/visa-drops-plans-to-acquire-fintech-startup-plaid-after-doj-antitrust-lawsuit/?sh=4437788476b2) their merger plans because they don't want to deal with a lengthy lawsuit. 


Fund

__This could be a blessing in disguise for Plaid...__ Since Visa announced the acquisition plans, Plaid's customer base has soared 60% to 4K companies. Consumers have flocked to digital payments and online banking during the pandemic — and Plaid is the "plumbing" that connects them. It's possible Plaid's worth even more now than Visa was planning to pay. And it's likely that there's a lot more room for growth.

Visa’s epic $5.3B Plaid purchase gets canceled (congrats to Plaid?)

__Build me up, build me up...__ buttercup KB. __[KB Home](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KBH)__ is *kind of* like the Chipotle of homebuilding — instead of build-your-own-bowl, KB lets you build-your-own-home (guac's still extra). From September to November, KB's signed purchase contracts soared 42% to the highest Q4 total in 15 years. And more than half of homes delivered went to first-time buyers.

__Life-size Barbie Dreamhouse...__ and Jerome Powell is the Ken doll. The Fed has given us near-zero interest rates to stimulate the economy. Taking out a loan for a house is way cheaper than it was pre-pandemic: mortgage rates [notched](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/mortgage-refinance-demand-spikes-20percent-to-start-the-year.html) more than a dozen record lows in 2020. Also: remote work is allowing people to leave cities and flock to suburbs. 

- __The number of homes for sale__ in the US [fell](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/housing-shortage-hits-new-record-low-igniting-prices.html) to the lowest level on record in November. That's great for KB, who's buying land and building *new* homes to meet demand. 
- __The median sale price of a home__ rose above $300K for the first time this past summer. That's also good for KB, whose average selling price jumped.


Build

__It's all about the backlog, baby...__ "Backlog homes" are houses that have been ordered, but not built yet. Basically, they represent future sales. KB had nearly 8K backlog homes last quarter, up by half from a year earlier. Even though KB's sales were actually *down* ~20% last quarter, its backlog sales value jumped ~60% to $3B. Since investors are future-focused, KB stock had its biggest daily gain since May yesterday — likely thanks to that sweet backlog.

KB Home is up on the Big Housing Boom (investors dig the backlog)

🚁  GM's futuristic show

__If it's a verb...__ It needs no intro. Flashback to December 2019: WFH days are a rare perk, masks are for spa days, and __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ stock is trading at $65. Flashforward to October 2020: WFH is a meme-ified norm, masks are for all days, and Zoom stock is trading at $560. Oh, and its quarterly profit has increased 3,300% from 2019. 

- __But Zoom has been kind of muted lately...__ Now that Covid-19 vaccines are being administered, shares have fallen to $357. And Zoom wants to cash in before it's too late.
- __Zoom plans to sell 5M+ new shares__ to [raise](https://investors.zoom.us/news-releases/news-release-details/zoom-announces-pricing-175-billion-public-offering) $1.75B in fresh cash. Since more shares are being introduced, Zoom stockholders will own less of the overall company — that [dilutes](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/5rlezLS4uMuf3cZTyEAo38/what-is-stock-dilution/) the value of exisiting shares.

__Conference FOMO...__ Zoom hasn't cashed in on its soaring share price yet. When you buy a company's stock, the company isn't  getting your dollars. The $$$ goes to the random other investor you bought the stock from (just like when you sell, it goes to you). But these new share sales are kind of rare for public companies (though Tesla has announced two this year), because no one wants dilution. So why is Zoom doing this now? 


"_Welcome to ZWork"_

Sell

__Zoom could be gearing up to invest...__ in a "return-to-work" hedge. Zoom doesn't have a cash problem: on October 31, it had [$1.9B](https://investors.zoom.us/news-releases/news-release-details/correction-zoom-reports-results-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2021) in cash, according to its latest earnings. So this share sale isn't a needy cash grab. Zoom is the ultimate WFH stock - that's both its greatest strength and its greatest vulnerability. Now it could be gearing up to invest in (or even acquire) a "return-to-normalcy" hedge. We're thinking it should launch a remote co-working space called ZWork.

Zoom looks to raise $1.75B with a new share sale — but why?

__If a mailbox had a baby with a WiFi-connected Igloo cooler...__ you'd get HomeValet. This "smart cooler" chills on your doorstep, waiting for the grocery delivery so you don't have to. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__'s [partnering](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/walmart-will-test-grocery-deliveries-to-customers-homes.html) with the startup behind HomeValet for a grocery delivery pilot in Bentonville, Arkansas (aka: Walmart HQ).

- __Secure & contact-less:__ Only you and the delivery guy/gal can unlock the box. 
- __Temp-controlled:__ Three temperature zones — refrigerated, frozen, and room temp (for the Nutella).
- __Phone-controlled:__ Set your HomeValet to 0° F straight from the app. 
- __Disinfecting:__ Bacteria-crushing UV lights sanitize your eggplant.

__Walmart isn't famous for its e-nnovation...__ but it *is* famous for groceries. Walmart = [largest](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7npBg6WCh7X1ssgq9cuRtt/articles/5KSLxwetQ3mOFHvXF6Jnl9/) grocer in the US. This partnership with HomeValet could give it an innovative edge against techy __Instacart__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__. In fact, Walmart customers will be the first to gain access to HomeValet boxes (they haven't even dropped yet).


Cool

__Prime goes wide, Walmart+ goes deep...__ into grocery. Makes sense, since groceries account for over half of Walmart's sales. ICYMI: Walmart+ is the $98/year Amazon Prime rival. Prime offers everything from free shipping, to video, to Music, and yes... grocery delivery. But Walmart+ has one major selling point: free unlimited grocery delivery. HomeValet could level up Walmart's grocery by expanding perks. 


Walmart tests an outdoor "smart cooler" for anytime grocery delivery

💻  Zoom's $1.75B stock sale 

__Returning your returns...__ So meta. The new approach to online returns: *don't do them.* From __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, to __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, and __[Chewy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHWY)__, companies are starting to say “keep it,” [according](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-walmart-tell-consumers-to-skip-returns-of-unwanted-items-11610274600) to the WSJ. They’ll refund you for that tight-fitting beanie — but they don't want it back. Why so nice? 

- __*It's a price thing*.__ Some returns are more expensive to process and ship than the products actually cost — especially cheap or heavy items. Companies use AI to do the math.
- __Returns can cost companies $10 to $20,__ *excluding* transportation. So it makes more economic sense to just refund you for that $7 PopSocket (iPhone was allergic). 

__Do "one-size-fits-all" fuzzy socks count?...__ The number of ecommerce returns in 2020 jumped 70% from 2019. More than half of that was driven by soaring online sales. A fourth was because you didn’t want to return online orders at physical stores. And a smaller part was because... clothes didn't fit after gaining the Quarantine 15. 

- __For customers,__ this is clearly a win. Your pile of "return" items has been growing for years since the psychological hassle is just too much to bear.
- __For companies,__ making customers happy and losing less money are wins. But it could be a slippery slope ("Amazon return fraud" is apparently a dark-web career).

Unslip

__Score one for brick-and-mortar...__ Ecommerce takes all the spotlight nowadays, but we often overlook the big, hidden costs of online shopping: returns. According to __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__, online purchases are returned at least twice as much as physical purchases. According to others, they're returned *three to four times* as frequently. That's wasted time, effort, and money for companies. As return volumes hit record highs, that model just doesn't make sense for some businesses.  

The anti-return policy: Walmart and Amazon don't want your stuff back

__Gone in six Quibis (and back in three)...__  In October, __Quibi__ [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7oAUli7UMHThk1zPsZgphL/articles/1YFRPlVRtVru6uD41Ujn2V) it was shutting down just six months after launching. The short video streamer had raised a ginormous $1.75B to bring star-studded original shows to your phone (Liam Hemsworth, Idris Elba, Chrissy Teigen — all Quibi'd). The hype was real, but the cruel reality was realer (it flopped). While Quibi is dead, its content is being reincarnated... *in the body of a streaming dongle*.

__If content is king...__ then __Roku__ just got a royal deal. The popular streaming device company has acquired the rights to 75+ Quibi shows, to be streamed exclusively on its free, ad-supported "Roku Channel." Sure, Quibi had some questionable content (see: show about a woman with a [golden arm](https://news.avclub.com/we-need-to-talk-about-the-golden-arm-episode-of-quibi-1842886592), show about a [sex doll](https://decider.com/2020/04/16/anna-kendrick-sex-doll-dummy-quibi-trailer/) come to life). But it splurged on HBO-level production quality and A-list stars, so Roku's getting a sweet deal:

- __$1.1B:__ How much Quibi spent on content in the first year, topping out at $100K *per minute* for the priciest shows.
- __Less than $100M:__ How much Roku [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/roku-acquires-rights-to-quibi-s-content-11610116056) paid for all that Quibi content. 
- __For reference:__ Netflix [spent](https://deadline.com/2020/01/netflix-spending-on-content-set-to-climb-past-17b-in-2020-analyst-expects-1202832546/) more than $17B on original content in 2020 alone (you could probably tell from the *Bridgerton* set design).


_Roku's Golden Arm_

Streamy

__Roku is thriving on both sides of streaming...__ As "the People's Streaming Device" (aka: cheaper alternative to Apple TV), Roku is the leader in streaming hardware, covering over [50M](https://deadline.com/2021/01/roku-hits-51-million-active-accounts-streaming-hours-surge-2020-1234665590/) households. That's likely why its stock has nearly 3X'd in value over the past six pandemic months. But more than [70%](https://ir.roku.com/static-files/2148e434-58e4-48e1-bd1c-926862e3c21b) of its sales actually come from ad sales and subscriptions — and those are growing faster than hardware sales. By beefing up content on The Roku Channel — which has 40K+ movies and shows — Roku can make more ad money *and* sharpen its double-edge over streamers like Netflix. 


Quibi gets a new lease on life  (and Roku gets a great, ad-tastic deal)

📦  Amazon's anti-return policy 

__Still reeling...__  The nation was shaken Wednesday, when pro-Trump rioters stormed the US Capitol building, temporarily halting the certification of Joe Biden’s Electoral College win. Five people died during the attack, including a US Capitol Police officer. Trump was widely criticized for [stoking](https://www.vox.com/22220746/trump-speech-incite-capitol-riot) the insurrection, which struck at the cornerstone of American democracy. While the riot received bipartisan condemnation, Big Tech took unprecedented action...

- __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ went the furthest, permanently banning Trump and removing his tweet history. It [cited](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html) the risk that he could incite further violence (against Twitter Rules). 
- __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ locked Trump's FB and Insta accounts *at least* until January 20th (aka: Biden's inauguration) — and potentially indefinitely.
- __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ and  __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ removed __Parler__, a right-wing-friendly “free speech” app, from their app stores. Then, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ said it would no longer host Parler on its AWS cloud.
-  __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__ permanently took down Trump's campaign merch store, while __[Paypal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PYPL)__  [deactivated](https://www.cnet.com/news/paypal-and-shopify-remove-trump-related-accounts-citing-policies-against-supporting-violence/) an account that raised money for Trump supporters, some of whom traveled to the Capitol.
- __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__ locked Trump's account, while __Amazon__'s Twitch indefinitely banned Trump's streaming channel.

__Wall Street's two cents ...__ Twitter stock fell 5% for the week, even though the moves are likely to win Big Tech goodwill with the newly Democrat-controlled government (Dems have criticized Twitter for not moderating *enough*). More goodwill = potentially less regulation and Congressional grillings. But Twitter investors seemed [concerned](https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-media-michael-flynn-social-media-f41b11060d7703e3a3136ddb5eefa055) that the Trump ban could reduce usage and ad sales. 


_Twitter employee with the kill switch: "It's done"_

#Blocked

__The immense power and responsibility of Big Tech has never been clearer...__ First: in allowing misinformation to spread, bad actors to organize, and nearly anyone to have a huge platform. Second: in taking away that voice and reach in a matter of seconds, from a figure as significant as the US president. These tech bans are a reminder that a company like Twitter, with just 5K employees, wields disproportionate influence over world events. They also set a precedent for how the public will expect them to intervene moving forward.


Big Tech excommunicates President Trump — and Twitter bans him permanently 

__Diamonds on my (block)chain...__ __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ topped $40K for the first time last week, more than *doubling* in a month. The epic rally was partly [driven](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3LgF2GHrBcJKBJ4WJf1iwx/articles/2nXdL69aReUxvgeSTBY2ox) by institutional FOMO: companies like banks and hedge funds have been pouring into the crypto coin. Mainstream investors, who have more access to bitcoin than ever through fintech apps, also took part in the rally. While bitcoin tends to be volatile (read: crash-prone), some see it as a hedge against inflation: bitcoin's supply is capped at 21M coins, while the Fed’s money printers have been blasting out $$$ to stimulate the economy.

__Clean juice cleanse...__  Electric vehicles had a [moment](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/14Hg085xWwEvJnaWbkrQrd/articles/4UtTPkEjyCpP3Ry2vGbqHG) last week with a flurry of milestones. __[Nio](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NIO)__, the so-called "Tesla of China," said its 2020 deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to ~44K. __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ (the "Tesla of Tesla") delivered a record-breaking ~500K cars last year. Meanwhile in Norway, electric cars outsold gas and hybrid models for the first time in 2020. In the UK, EV sales nearly tripled while total auto sales hit the lowest level since 1992. 


__I sink, therefore I am...__ While the __[S&P 500](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/7kFFEUv46vmMCmMfLuNiRX/what-is-the-s-and-p-500/)__  was busy hitting record highs, __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ dropped the anchor. Shares of the world's largest cruise company fell 5% for the week, after three of Carnival's cruise lines pushed back sail dates to follow government protocols. Still, the cruise operator seems upbeat about its advanced bookings for 2021, and the stock has rallied 50% since November. BTW: Carnival is dropping earnings today — analysts are [expecting](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/01/08/carnival-delta-and-3-other-big-names-ravaged-by-shutdowns-report-earnings-next-week-heres-what-to-expect/?sh=37222f179580) sales to be down a whopping 97% from last year. 

__Hitting reverse...__ The pace of jobs recovery has been [slowing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/zVG8BBoAxAmMC9XSil04c/articles/6oRNWLHX5ImjkATSKIBZu3/) for months, but now the US is actually *losing* jobs again: the US economy [shed](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/jobs-report-december-2020.html) 140K jobs in December, the first monthly net loss since April. Hospitality accounted for most of that as Covid cases surged. Bars and restaurants got hit hardest, losing nearly 400K positions as California banned outdoor dining. The unemployment rate remained flat from November at 6.7% (nearly double the pre-pandemic rate). But investors shrugged off the report, looking ahead to vaccines and more stimulus.


🏥 Walmart, Amazon, and the vaccine rollout

🥛 Chobani's "Branded House"

🎓 Student loan forgiveness...?

🍔 One small step for man...

💰 Inauguration Edition: $$, markets, and the economy

👛 Poshmark's double IPO pop

🚁 GM's futuristic show

💻 Zoom's $1.75B stock sale

📦 Amazon's anti-return policy

🛑 Big Tech blocks Trump