__Welp, that escalated quickly…__ Wall Street prides itself on predicting risks and opportunities quicker than everybody else. Two weeks ago, it predicted doom as markets suffered their [worst week](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/13Kjjb7pbjXOtqOU67uiLC/articles/KV9dc34Htz2Vvddr7goxf) since 2008. Then, things got worse:

1. __COVID 19 shut down the world’s economy:__ It’s officially a global pandemic and a National Emergency in the US. Some European countries have closed businesses except for food, health, and banks. 
2. __Oil markets crashed:__ “Anyone can die in a freak, gasoline accident.” -- *Saudi Arabia to Russia*. The two oil-rich countries fighting about how much oil to pump triggered the [biggest 1-day drop](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yAve6xSRhLRA5umV930FV/articles/58PLs0oCRQ6EX1n9oXxhoN) in oil prices since the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

__Stocks fly together (downward)…__ When economies and markets get shaken by something as far-reaching as a pandemic, investors tend to hit the “sell” button as indiscriminately as a “down for anything” Tinder user swipes right. 

- __The winners:__ Some businesses stand to benefit from extended Work From Home and a growing "[sanitize-it-all](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html)" trend.
- __The losers:__ *Everyone else.* Many expect an economic [recession](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/53OOO3JQFf0Sqo5g0t4O5F/what-is-a-recession/) has already started (recessions = 6 straight months of economic shrinkage). FYI, the last one in the US ended in June of '09. *Shrinking economy ➡️ shrinking profits ➡️ shrinking stock prices*.

_With markets in crisis mode, we're in this fight together_

Crash

__What goes up, must come down (and vice versa)...__ Each “bull market” is followed by a “bear market”, and [versa vice](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/) — it’s like a see-saw with giant duffle bags of money sliding back and forth. 

- __Bull markets:__ Once stocks __rise 20% overall__ from the last low, it’s called a “[bull market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/)”, which tends to include economic growth and falling unemployment.
- __Bear markets:__ Last week stocks fell past the “[bear market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/)” threshold, meaning we’d __dropped over 20%__ since February’s record highs. This tends to bring economic shrinkage and rising unemployment.
- __Yo-Yo Mountain:__ Wealth advisers generally recommend not timing the market's ups/downs because they're  hard to predict. Over the past nine decades, stocks overall have risen [about 10%](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/18/the-sp-500-has-already-met-its-average-return-for-a-full-year.html) per year on average. It's like a long hike up a mountain with a yo-yo going up-and-down, but the mountain's [overall slope](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data) rises.

Policymakers enter crisis mode on COVID-19 as markets crash

- __Pregame hosted over Zoom...__ Shares of video conferencing company __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ have soared 63% in 3 months. As meetings turn virtual and WFH goes standard, more companies are Zooming (it earned verb status) — its quarterly sales jumped 78% from the year before. Wednesday was Zoom's [biggest download day ever](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2020/03/13/zoom-video-coronavirus-eric-yuan-schools/#3a2405554e71). Now it's offering videoconferencing to K-12 schools [for free](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/14/zoom-is-helping-schools-closing-due-coronavirus-fo.aspx) as classes move online.  

-  __Groupies wanted...__ __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ splurged [almost $4B](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2N4J8I3LVoH4TJ41Xmtvys/articles/7MwIKLPyFE9qMQ5p4isrVU/) on energy drink throwback __Rockstar__, which Pepsi has distributed since '09. Big Bev has been shifting to "functional beverages" — think low-cal energy drinks, hard kombucha, CBD-infused liquid, and anything you drink "for a reason" besides just hydration or the alcohol. So instead of wasting years and $$$ to build up its own brand to rival Rockstar, Pepsi now owns the #3 energy functional bev ASAP. 

Highs

Who's up...

- __Terrible time to be 'Sassy and Gassy'...__ Oil prices took their [biggest plunge](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yAve6xSRhLRA5umV930FV/articles/58PLs0oCRQ6EX1n9oXxhoN/) since '91, dropping 24% last Monday. Part of that is coronavirus-reduced travel demand. The rest is reality show-worthy OPEC drama: Saudi Arabia wanted Russia to cut oil production to boost prices of their precious export. But Russia refused (reportedly, to hurt US oil producers). So Saudi jacked up its production, dropping oil prices even further. Since then, __[Exxon Mobil](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__ stock is down 21% and __[Occidental Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OXY)__ fell 53%.


- __Despite your current WFH lifestyle...__ work messaging service __[Slack](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WORK)__ isn't doing as well as its "stay-at-home" peers (like Zoom). Shares dropped 20% after Slack's earnings [revealed](https://www.businessinsider.com/slacks-earnings-q4-2020-slowing-growth-guidance-2020-3) it's growing slower than investors expected. The problem is that it simply takes way longer to implement Slack than Zoom (think salespeople, contracts, IT integrations, and learning curves teaching Bruce what "channels" are). So Slack's experiencing some "opportunity blockage" — like the [Baby Yoda toy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/GptbTfH3TGCsKNYjP48YR/articles/4Dxd9TfAdmR3vc02BBEdSw) situation.

Lows

... and who's down

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

10-Yr US Treasury

📉 COVID-19 crashes the market

__Like Advil for Strep throat...__ On Wednesday, the President announced a new travel ban and [proposed](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/814597993/trump-set-to-deliver-address-as-coronavirus-deemed-a-pandemic) $50B of new loans for small and medium businesses struggling from the effects of the Coronavirus. Then yesterday America's Central bank [announced](https://slate.com/business/2020/03/federal-reserve-bond-market-wall-street-trillion.html) something 30x bigger — $1.5T of fresh loans for financial institutions that need it. Markets seemingly rejected the stimulus pill, hammering stocks down another 10% Thursday — __that's the Dow's [worst day](https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-follow-u-s-markets-lower-11583975524) since 1987__. 

- __The Fed's goal is to ease the symptoms__ of coronavirus-plunged markets (we're in a [bear market](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2N4J8I3LVoH4TJ41Xmtvys/articles/3lDtbIu8ObEgNzjo0WqhvE) now) and to increase borrowing & spending. 
- __But that's exactly the problem:__ The market's downfall is *just a symptom* of the underlying illness, which is coronavirus. This is like the gov prescribing $1.5T worth of Advil for an illness that can only be cured through antivirals — treating a symptom (fever), not the *cause* (virus).
- __Government spending and credit relief worked in '08 and '09__ when the economy was actually sick from a credit crisis. This time seems to be different.

__Pouring money into a party no one wants to attend...__ The fundamental issue is that people aren't spending money — the spread of COVID-19 is keeping the world at home, which is like economic paralysis. The stimulus pill isn't enough to get people to a party they think is dangerous... the only thing we think will actually help: containing the spread of coronavirus ASAP.

"_That wasn't the right injection!_ " 

Cure

__The market's cure lies in the root of the illness...__ Public health efforts toward preventing COVID-19's spread can get to it. The [gov's ban](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-12-20-intl-hnk/index.html) on flights from Europe takes aim in that direction. South Korea took swift action on its outbreak, and its rate of infection has dropped significantly:

- __It's testing 20K people per day__ (just a total of 10K Americans have been tested so far) and they treat infected people [for free](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-response-specialre/italy-and-south-korea-virus-outbreaks-reveal-disparity-in-deaths-and-tactics-idUSKBN20Z27P) — They're also [tracking patients](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615329/coronavirus-south-korea-smartphone-app-quarantine/) through apps (little creepy). But it's resulted in an impressively low 67 deaths out of 8K cases and 222K tests, as of Thursday.
- __Italy's outbreak__ happened around the same time, but it now has over [1K](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-response-specialre/italy-and-south-korea-virus-outbreaks-reveal-disparity-in-deaths-and-tactics-idUSKBN20Z27P) deaths out of 15K cases and 73K tests.




Markets aren't healed by the President's speech or the Fed's $1.5T stimulus medicine

__First rule for fixing a problem...__ Be able to identify it. __[LabCorp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LH)__ and __[Quest Diagnostics](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DGX)__ are America's clinical-testing duopoly — they're the ones who analyze your blood/saliva/etc. after your doctor collects test samples. Now, these publicly-traded labs are producing coronavirus tests. US confirmed infections have topped 1K — keeping that number as low as possible depends a lot on these labs: 

- __3 major entities__ offering testing right now: Labcorp, Quest, and government-run labs.
- __Requesting a test__ doesn't mean you'll get one — state/local labs run through the CDC have [limited](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/11/814189027/no-guarantee-youll-get-tested-for-covid-19-even-if-your-doctor-requests-it) testing capacity and aren't well-funded enough to scale.
- __COVID-19 tests__ are more complex than flu/strep tests — they take 4-6 hours to analyze, and it's challenging for small labs to run them in large batches.

__This is Big Clinical's big moment...__ Lots of molecular testing companies are trying to develop COVID-19 kits. But only LabCorp and Quest have the capacity to scale for the amount of testing needed to crunch your bodily data. Still, both their stocks  plunged over 22% in the past 5 days, since they haven't been able to capitalize on demand for testing.

Test

__Off the JV bench — and in the Varsity game...__ LabCorp and Quest could be doing more to scale testing, but they have some "opportunity blockage" (like Hasbro with [Baby Yoda](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/GptbTfH3TGCsKNYjP48YR/articles/4Dxd9TfAdmR3vc02BBEdSw)). 

- __Neither company__ lets people come into one of their thousands of locations to get tested for COVID-19. They require a sample be taken at a doctor's office, and turnaround can take 3-4 days. 
- __The CDC has imposed__ restrictions (aka, red tape) around the rollout of testing kits and guidance for doctors on who should get the test, slowing the scaling process.

America's lab-testing duopoly just got even more important

💊 Stimulus pill flops 

__Bad news Bear Market...__ With [the Dow](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/13urVTf3GSQYdsr7Eq5fHL/what-is-the-dow/) down 20% from the record high it notched in February, we've reached the technical definition of a "[bear market](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/3i6hIwhY75uWjZUZiLFTFT/what-are-bull-and-bear-markets/)" after a historic 11-year bull run. Wednesday's 1,465 point drop was the [2nd largest on record](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/stock-market-today-live.html) (after Monday's) — The stocks of 94% of S&P 500 companies are now 10%+ lower than their recent highs. You may hear the term "bailouts" tossed around, aka tax-payer funds loaned by the gov to key companies/sectors at risk of going broke...

- __Pros:__ Bailouts can save hundreds of thousands of jobs and protect from defaults that might cause industry-wide domino-effect collapses.
- __Cons:__ They cut into tax-payer $$ and might encourage companies to operate more recklessly (aka "moral hazard").
- __Recent bailout history:__ '08 (financial institutions — except Lehman Brothers), '09 (Detroit's General Motors and Chrysler), '19 ($28B for farmers suffering from the US/China trade war).

__And the bailout bachelors are...__ Unlike in 2008, the issue hurting markets  now isn't fundamentally related to the health of the economy. *It's the effect of people staying home* (not spending) that hurts — that's hitting some industries harder than others, earning them (still early) bailout attention:

- __Airlines:__ Cancellations have skyrocketed — *but* the major carriers have decades-long [profits](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6wRGgx7QknYZXmDyA2zTy9/articles/4mOiuwQwp60nQ7F33CMMXz/) to cushion falls.
- __Cruiseliners:__ Cruise operators including (and [especially](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4nSNGyjLXmxq22ZVEKK9D9/articles/4hJ2rDCQzscOsWEvfoFoWZ)) __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__  have seen bookings drop — *but* we don't think they employ enough people or are integral enough to the economy. 
- __Oil:__ Energy giants are [struggling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2yAve6xSRhLRA5umV930FV/articles/58PLs0oCRQ6EX1n9oXxhoN/) through a [50% plunge](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/opec-deal-collapse-sparks-price-war-20-oil-in-2020-is-coming.html) in prices — *but* these pump icons have plenty of cash and it would be optically hard to bailout fossil fuel companies while climate change happens.



Bail

__The bachelor most in need of the bailout rose...__ __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ might be the only one. As America's only major commercial airplane manufacturer, Boeing *is an industry in itself*. And just one of its models, the 737 Max, feeds [600 supply companies](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max-economy/boeings-737-production-halt-could-dent-u-s-first-quarter-gdp-idUSKBN1YL286) with business. Boeing was already struggling hard  *before*  with its grounded planes and cancelled orders. Now coronavirus has put it in a harder spot — it's reportedly maxed out its [$14B credit line](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-loans/boeing-plans-full-drawdown-of-13-8-billion-loan-this-week-source-idUSKBN20Y28G) and it's [no longer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/boeing-halts-hiring-effective-immediately-as-coronavirus-poses-global-economic-disruption.html) hiring. 

 Bear market puts the "b-word" on everyone's lips: bailouts

"__I might even be a Rockstar__"__...__ Hannah Montana said it best, but __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__'s feeling it — it just bought __Rockstar Energy__ for [$3.85B](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinstoller/2020/03/11/rockstar-energy-drink-founder-cashing-out-for-nearly-4-billion-says-the-american-dream-is-alive-and-well/#3477156075d7). Russ Weiner founded the canned energy company in '01 ([his mom](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinstoller/2020/03/11/rockstar-energy-drink-founder-cashing-out-for-nearly-4-billion-says-the-american-dream-is-alive-and-well/#3477156075d7) was CFO). Pepsi has distributed Rockstar since '09, but that deal meant it couldn't launch a Mountain Dew-branded energy rival — now that it's acquired Rockstar, its energy ambitions are unlimited. The rest of Big Bev is shifting from sugary sodas too *for these reasons*...

- __Health:__ Tea, coffee, kombucha, coconut water, and other lower-cal and more natural bevs have skyrocketed in demand. 
- __Energy:__ Energy drinks and coffee-flavored anything are increasingly splurgeable commodities (because we're all exhausted).

__Or combine the 2 for a winning strategy...__ For years, Big Bev lagged in the exploding health/energy sector.  Lately, it has been upping its "functional drink" game: 

- __ABInbev__'s Bud literally launched a hard green tea and hard coconut water brand... [this week](https://www.fastcompany.com/90474426/uh-oh-anheuser-busch-just-launched-a-hard-green-tea-and-hard-coconut-water)
- __KeurigDrPepper__ launched "healthy" energy drink Adrenaline Shoc.
- __Coke__ owns a 19% stake in __Monster__, then eventually launched its own energy drink competitor (Coke Energy) despite Monster's complaints.



Energize

__Big Bev needs "functional bev"...__ Something providing more than just sugar/alcohol. With the Rockstar acquisition, Pepsi immediately gets the #3 spot in energy drinks (after Monster and Red Bull). It can also go big on its Mountain Dew line and do energy in-house. Sodas aren't far from energy drinks (caffeine, sugar, unpronounceable chemicals) — maybe Big Bev just has to throw in vitamins, more caffeine, and more extreme names ([Coke Energy](https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/business/coke-energy-us-launch/index.html) is the epitome). 

Pepsi buys Rockstar for almost $4B — it's all about the "functional bevs"

"_Maybe if I ignore it, it will go away..._"

🐻 Bear market is back 

__In need of financial stitching...__ __[Stitch Fix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SFIX)__, the online personal styling service, just [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/stitch-fix-sfix-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2020-earnings.html) its earnings for the last quarter — far from glamorous. It's a fashion company trying to look like a tech company. You fill out a style quiz (*modern or boho? Slim fit or athletic?*) and Stitch Fix sends you monthly subscription boxes of ambitious clothes to push your looks envelope.

- __The population of Fixers__ jumped 17% over the year to reach 3.5M.
- And it's a scaling up tech company __that's actually profitable__ ($11M last quarter).


__But its latest service reveals a problem...__ "Direct Buy." Instead of using Stitch Fix's proprietary, algorithm-enabled, human-curated style decision tool to hook you on a monthly subscription, Stitch Fix offers the option to just buy clothes from its online store instead. Direct. Just like other ecommerce sites. That undermines Stitch Fix's core service and could be a sign of an underlying demand problem.



_Stitch Fixers gone wrong_

Strut

__It's struggling to move past early adopters...__ And that's why the stock is down 67% from its peak. Early adopters drive initial sales and growth for innovative new companies — then it's time to go mainstream. The true test of success is expanding *beyond* its early demographic. But 2 stats show that's not exactly happening for Stitch Fix:

- To find new customers, Stitch Fix had to __up its spending on ads__ — by 49% last quarter.
- But customers __spent less per "Fix" on average__.

Stitch Fix falls 25% because we may have hit peak Fix

__I want to break tree...__ The commercial use of tree, that is. __Grove Collaborative__ is a consumer packaged goods unicorn offering sustainable products and a *Millennially-pleasing* website font. Grove elevates un-sexy basics — like toilet paper, trash bags, and fabric softener — by positioning itself as a positive force for the environment:

- __'Tree-Free':__ How Grove describes its Seedling paper products (like tree-free TP) — they're made of just one ingredient: [100% Sustainable Bamboo](https://www.grove.co/catalog/product/seedling-toilet-paper/?v=5477&attrsrc=22&attrpg=catalog&attrpos=0)
- __'Tree-Positive'__: Grove [offers](https://www.arborday.org/media/pressreleases/pressreleasetxt.cfm?id=435) the "first 'tree-positive' paper in the World" (don't bother Googling the term — we tried).  A [portion](https://www.grove.co/catalog/product/tree-free-month-paper/?v=2944) of every Seedling purchase goes toward tree-planting. 


__Grove just announced it's going Plastic Free by 2025...__ It's already *plastic-neutral*, which is the same idea as carbon-neutral — it pays to intercept plastic before it reaches oceans/landfills. It also offsets carbon emissions from its free shipping. To get [plastic-free](https://www.grove.co/plastic), Grove will gradually use more glass and aluminum. But here's what really fascinated us:

- __Bamboo:__ Grove is obsessed with it — bamboo paper, straws, cutting boards — even the [$25 paper-towel holder](https://www.grove.co/catalog/product/paper-towel-holder/?v=5137&attrsrc=22&attrpg=catalog&attrpos=4) has a bamboo handle (to hold your bamboo paper towels). 
- __Bamboo is the [fastest growing](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/fastest-growing-plant/) plant__ in the world (note: not a tree). While trees take around 20 years to grow back after harvesting, bamboo takes only 3 months – Grove also [assures us](https://www.grove.co/paper/)) that no baby panda will be left hungry in the making of its paper. 

Sustain

__Being "sustainable" is no longer enough for a brand...__ Supermarkets and drugstores already boast eco-friendly options like Seventh Generation or Method. Grove's brand stands for *approachable* sustainability — but its new aggressive commitment to tree-free-ness is what sets it apart. We're in an era of sustainable products right now (think plant-based meat) — Grove's focused on the next era: sustainable packaging. They're even working on shampoo concentrate to reduce plastic bottles.

Grove Collaborative is going plastic-free by 2025 — it's a "tree-positive" story

🌳 Grove goes "tree-positive"

__When you're not blaming coronavirus...__ blame oil. Oil prices plunged 24% Monday, hitting multi-year lows and notching their worst daily drop since 1991. US prices fell as much as 34% (that won't translate to lower gas prices as fast as we'd all like). The drama starts with OPEC, the powerhouse org of 14 oil-exporting countries: 

- __Because of its oil producing dominance__, OPEC can change oil prices by cutting/increasing output — in 2018, [almost 80% ](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm)of the world's oil reserves were in OPEC countries.
- __It's led__ by Saudi Arabia, OPEC's big dog and also the [world's largest oil exporter](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/169.htm). 
- __Since 2017__, OPEC and its ally Russia (also a huge oil-producer) have been keeping supply lower to boost prices. 

__But oil prices have been falling...__ because coronavirus has dented economic growth globally, causing the world to need less oil. So OPEC proposed a plan this weekend to cut production further in order to keep prices high. Now Russia and Saudi Arabia are the stars of a crude drama, worthy of its own reality show (*Oiled and Spoiled?* *Sassy and Gassy?*):

- __Russia said__ "nah, I'm good" and refused to participate in OPEC's production cuts — it's [reportedly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-shares-fall-below-ipo-price-for-first-time-11583663747?mod=article_inline) doing this to hurt US oil producers (who've been gaining market share) with lower prices for their key product.
- __Saudi wasn't feeling__ Russia's response, and in a *#savage* move, jacked up production to increase oil supplies, thereby cutting oil prices.
- __Since Friday's drama__, oil stocks have plummeted: __[Occidental Petroleum](https://robinhood.com/stocks/OXY)__ sunk 53%, __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__ fell 15%, and __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__ is down 12%.  






Pump

__Terrible time for this beef...__ Oil demand is already low since coronavirus has slowed travel. Now, Russia and Saudi Arabia are in an oil-pumping contest to see who can drive prices *even lower.*  This hurts the rapidly growing US shale industry (exactly Russia's goal). It's also bringing other sectors down — heavily-invested bank stocks are getting [crushed](https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-are-getting-crushed-blame-their-exposure-to-falling-oil-prices-51583774512). Long term though, lower oil prices benefit us car-drivers and many businesses.




Oil takes its biggest plunge since 1991 —  and the drama is reality-show worthy

__15-minute meditation break sponsored by...__ the NYSE. On Monday morning, panicked investors — with coronavirus and plunging oil prices on their minds — unleashed a flood of stocks on the market. Just 5 little minutes into the trading day, the S&P 500 fell a stunning 7% on the selling frenzy. Then, there was silence: the drop [triggered](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/09/813619387/dow-dives-1-900-points-nyse-halts-trading-as-stock-indexes-plummet) a circuit breaker that automatically [halted](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/2oZ3da1LxPhVbsVxk5kVHa/what-is-the-stock-market/) trading across the entire market — for 15 minutes.

- __Investors get 'time-out'__ because circuit breakers are meant to prevent a market debacle — they give investors time to calm down, absorb info, and slow the freak-out cycle. 
- __When investors returned__ from their 15-min breaks, indexes bounced up a tad from their lows. 


 __3 strikes, you're out...__ There are 3 levels of breakers, each with a different severity (think grade-school punishments):
 
 - __S&P 500 falls 7% from previous day's close?:__ The only one we experienced yesterday and the "least bad" one. That triggers a 15-minute time-out.
 - __Falls 13% before 3:25 PM?:__ 2nd warning — another 15-minutes to get it together (this time, facing the classroom wall).
 - __Falls 20%:__ Final trigger that shuts down the market for the rest of the day (go home and think about what you've done).

Stop

__Circuit breakers help prevent worst-case scenarios...__ They act as rational checks on emotional investors. The market stopped — not because it was broken — but because it was working (the pause eased the sell-off panic). The last market-wide halt happened in 1997 on "Bloody Monday." Since new breaker guidelines were implemented in 2013, the market has never triggered a 13% or 20% halt — a hopeful sign of its effectiveness.  


The 1st market-wide trading halt since 1997 (it's a "stop-the-drop" strategy)

__It happened quietly...__ But it happened. We just found out that last year, __[Comcast](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMCSA)__-owned __NBCUniversal__ sold its entire stake in __[Snap Inc](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__ — the [*Hollywood Reporter*](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/nbcuniversal-quietly-sold-500-million-stake-snapchat-1283201) found the break-up note tucked away in a Comcast financial filing.

- __When Snap went public__ 3 years ago, NBC revealed it had invested $500M. 
- __The OG content king__ wanted an in with the digital (non-cable) world of entertainment — Snap was that in. But now...


__NBC has a new love interest...__ Streaming. And it's not just a fling. NBC has devoted over $2B to develop/launch its own streaming service, known as "Peacock". By dipping out of its Snap investment, NBC can splurge more on its *own* Millennial-friendly service. This *drop the side-hustle, DIY*-move could be a trend among content OGs: 

- Last week, __[ViacomCBS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VIAC)__ hinted that it could be selling its Simon & Schuster publishing biz (to focus on its own streaming service).
- __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ sold off its FoxNet video game studio and went in hard  pouring billions into its own Disney+ and Hulu.

Sell

__Traditional media has a distribution problem...__ Think of media as a two-sided coin: content + distribution. A company can only be successful if it has both. NBC has spent 81 years racking up great content (cough, *The Office*) — but the way it traditionally distributes that content is shifting. It's main distribution channel (TV) is becoming outdated — that's why it's putting so much into its own streaming backbone.

NBC breaks up with Snapchat, packs $500M in an old shoe-box

_Walking onto Wall Street like_

✋ 🛑 Pause the market 

__Don't use it as a verb...__ __Quibi__ wants to be a noun. The adorably-named mobile video startup — short for "quick bites" — just raised a not-so-adorable [$750M](https://deadline.com/2020/03/quibi-raises-funds-1202874051/) in additional cash from its private investors (it hasn't IPO'd yet). That brings Quibi's total fundraise to a gargantuan __$1.75B__ — and it doesn't even launch until April 6th:

- __Quibi is like a mobile-only Netflix__, but its movies and video series are broken into 8-10 minute episodes (Quibi wants 8-10 minutes to be known as 1 "Quibi"). It's for people with short attention spans (aka, all of u-
- __The world has not yet tasted a Quibi__, making its value all the more surprising — Quibi's massive fundraise is rare for a pre-launch startup (though having Disney and Comcast as investors, and Shrek-creator Jeffery Katzenberg as co-founder definitely helps).

__If you bake it, will they eat?...__ Quibi's spending massively to cook up [8.5K](https://deadline.com/2020/03/quibi-raises-funds-1202874051/) bingeable bites in 2020 — and we just learned its [50 first shows](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/quibi-sets-50-show-launch-slate-1282877) (we're curious about the *Barkitecture* doghouse one). Quibi is betting big that these content cookies will be in high demand. We're calling it the "__Anticipated Popularity Model__." Can go 3 ways:

- __Success:__  __Apple__ had it with the iPhone, AirPods, and bold headphone-jack removal. 
- __TBD:__  __GM__ is spending billions building electric cars, though Americans haven't shown real demand for EVs yet.
- __Struggle:__ __Canopy Growth__ and its cannabis peers produced a ton of pot after legalization, but demand was way lower than hyped up to be.



_Trying to calculate the new girl's APS score_

Launch

__The proof is in (the other's) pudding...__ Quibi's APS (Anticipated Popularity Score) is really high — and for good reason. It's coming in at a time when short-video app __TikTok__ has *blown-up* in popularity (over 1B users). On the streaming bench, Quibi sits between popular super-short vids (__Snapchat__, __Instagram__) and highly successful longer-form streamers (__Netflix__, __Disney+__). TBD whether Quibi's position in the middle will help or hurt it.

Quibi gets $1.75B before launching — credit its "Anticipated Popularity Score"



- __Have that in a 224-pack?...__ __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST)__ unloaded [better-than-expected](https://www.barrons.com/articles/costco-earnings-beat-coronavirus-prepping-wall-street-saying-51583506161) earnings last week, fueled by "run-on-the-wholesalers" coronavirus stockpile shoppers — It's already [struggling ](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-says-coronavirus-sparking-surge-172409651.html) to meet demand for bleach, bottled water, and 24-packs of Clorox wipes. Viral virus shoppers boosted sales  [3%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-says-coronavirus-sparking-surge-172409651.html) — and that's after its online sales jumped 28% over the holidays.

- __Filling the Victoria's Secret void...__ __[American Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AEO)__ can thank its teen-centric loungewear brand, __Aerie__, for quarterly growth. Sales of AE's namesake brand were actually *down* 3%, but Aerie's [surged](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4nSNGyjLXmxq22ZVEKK9D9/articles/6UHeLxtT9logK0bwclgZMK) 26% (bumping overall growth). Instead of extra-padded bras and airbrushed models, Aerie offers comfy bralettes and inclusivity campaigns. The same taste shift that [hurt Victoria's](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6dHf0IKoXordQpWw5SfXlp/articles/7cMpQYST3D9SL5IWBdfVri/) drove Aerie's 21st-consecutive snuggly quarter of double-digit sales growth. 




- __Enter 'high pun' here...__ __[Canopy Growth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__, Earth's [largest](https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/939gkd/canopy-growth-the-worlds-biggest-weed-company-is-slashing-jobs-and-that-means-trouble) cannabis company, isn't living up to the 2nd half of its name. It's firing 500 workers and shutting down 2 of its biggest cannabis-growing greenhouses (and cancelling plans to build another). The entire cannabis industry is coming down from a short-lived high: companies produced a ton of pot after legalization, only to realize demand wasn't at the same level as hoped. Now Canopy's left holding the (weed) bag. 

- __Epic sinking streak...__ __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ Cruise's stock has sunk 46% since mid-January, thanks to a disaster trifecta that includes 2 Carnival ships colliding and a quarantined ship with 700 coronavirus infections. Now, it's got *another* [coronavirus-infected ship](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4nSNGyjLXmxq22ZVEKK9D9/articles/4hJ2rDCQzscOsWEvfoFoWZ) scheduled to dock today in [Oakland](https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-stricken-grand-princess-passengers-docking-monday-wont-be-quarantined-in-oakland/). Still, Carnival's industry dominance and Americans' growing demand for cruises might help it weather these temporary (but massive) setbacks — sales have risen 7% annually since 2015. 

...and who's down

🍪 Quibi gets $1.75B pre-launch  

__Not living up to the name...__ __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__. The cruise operator's slogan is "fun for all, all for fun" — its customers are far from feeling it. A 71-year-old man just died after sailing on Carnival's Grand Princess cruise, on which he was "[likely exposed](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/04/coronavirus-princess-cruises-ship-met-protest-over-no-testing/4950651002/)" to  coronavirus. Now the ship is being held off the coast of SF, with [100 people](https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/grand-princess-updates.html) identified for testing. This is Carnival's 3rd  debacle in 3 months:

1. __First,__ 2 Carnival ships [collided](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/20/carnival-cruise-ships-crash-cozumel) in a Mexican port.
2. __Then,__ there was Carnival's [Diamond Princess](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/new-coronavirus-cases-surge-as-3700-remain-quarantined-on-ship-in-japan.html) ship, quarantined off the coast of Japan with almost 700 coronavirus-infected passengers (leading to 6 deaths).
3. __Now,__ another ship's infected — Carnival stock plummeted 14% on Thursday, and is down 46% since mid-January. Still...

__Carnival enthusiastically dominates the cruise world...__ In 2018, Carnival took home [50%](https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/25/how-carnival-dominates-the-38-billion-cruise-indus.aspx) of sales in the entire cruise market. Since January, shares of the 3 big operators — Carnival, __Royal Caribbean__, and __Norwegian__ — have plummeted 30% to multiyear lows. Still... Excluding the coronavirus outbreak, Americans' cruise-thusiasm  has been strong: Carnival's sales have risen 7% each year since 2015.



_"Get me off this ship"_

Cruise

__Major players in successful industries have resources to weather storms...__ Carnival's dominance might protect it long term from temporary (but major) setbacks. Today's coronavirus impact reminds us of the travel industry's struggle post-9/11. But industry-shaking issues like coronavirus could be bigger tests for *smaller players* with fewer resources:

- __Luminous Cruise__, a small Japanese operator, filed for [bankruptcy](https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-leaves-cruise-industry-with-canceled-trips-and-half-empty-ships-11583330402?mod=article_inline) due to virus cancellations.
- Struggling UK airline __Flybe__ [collapsed](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/flybe-collapse-2020/index.html) — the virus-related fall in sales dealt it its final blow.

Carnival is on an epic losing streak with (another) coronavirus-infected ship

__Golden egg in the Eagle's nest...__ __[American Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AEO)__ enjoyed expectations-beating quarterly growth thanks to its teen-centric __Aerie__ brand. Aerie is known for comfy basics from hoodies to bralettes (aka, *loungewear*). Now it has become American Eagle's golden growth egg. Fun fact: "*aerie*" [means](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/aerie) "the nest of an eagle...built in a high place" (we thought it related to breathable fabric). Then we jumped into American Eagle's numbers more...

- __+2% :__ AE's *overall* same-store sales growth for the quarter (that beat expectations)
- __-3% :__ How much sales of the AE *brand* were down
- __*+26%*:__ *Aerie's impressive quarterly sales growth* — *that surge single-handedly drove the bump in AE's same-store sales.* 

__Aerie snuggled into sweet product/market fit...__ Its products satisfy a strong and growing market demand: Aerie's ad campaigns promote body-positivity, authenticity, and inclusivity, featuring non-supermodels (like scientist/CEO [Keiana Cavé](https://www.ae.com/aerie-real-life/2020/01/23/keiana-cave-scientist-ceo/)). This branding strategy — backed by in-depth [studies/research](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/05/american-eagles-aerie-is-still-a-leader-in-lingeri.aspx) on young women's preferences — has paid off: 

- Aerie's just notched its __21st straight quarter__ of double-digit sales growth. 
- __33 new Aerie stores__ were opened last year — *compared to only 6 AE stores*. And 70 more Aerie stores arrive in 2020.


Wear

__Filling the Victoria's Secret vacuum...__ VS' [sales have fallen](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6dHf0IKoXordQpWw5SfXlp/articles/7cMpQYST3D9SL5IWBdfVri/) because its brand of airbrushed models and extra-padded bras lost touch with customers (VS was recently [sold off](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4dQzmfcL6V8Dtknj3cmAs4/articles/zEH7oA4oxyf1DCw3XI3yp) by its parent company). But the AerieREAL Role Models campaign features unretouched pics of female athletes, activists, and entrepreneurs, boosting sales [significantly](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/05/american-eagles-aerie-is-still-a-leader-in-lingeri.aspx). The same shift in tastes that led to VS' sale/loss also led to Aerie's growth, positioning Aerie to take what Vicky missed.

Aerie emerges as American Eagle's MVP — its "product/market fit" game is strong

 🚢 Carnival stock sinks

__An extra Super Tuesday...__ for the healthcare sector, which rallied massively after Joe Biden scored wins in most of the 14 Super Tuesday states. Biden's victory affected healthcare stocks because it suggests a lower likelihood of a Bernie Sanders *Medicare for All* reality, which would [abolish](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/health/private-health-insurance-medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders.html) private health insurance. Health insurance companies/investors breathed a collective sigh of relief:

- __The S&P health care sector__ soared 5.8% and recorded its [best day](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/dow-futures-show-300-point-pop-as-early-super-tuesday-results-favor.html) since 2008 — health insurers added around [$48B](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/health-insurance-stocks-rally-biden-125257206.html) in [market value](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/GByCbiOluG2kcWs1AF6m5/what-is-market-capitalization/) Wednesday.


__"Pricing in" the risk of a Bernie win...__ A stock's price is largely dependent on what investors perceive to be the future growth/profit potential of the company. Tuesday changed things for health insurance: 

- __Before Super Tuesday,__ __[UnitedHealth](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UNH)__'s stock had a priced in chance that the company might be decimated by a Bernie presidency. 
- __Now, the odds of that are lower.__ Biden's wins increase his odds of becoming the Dem's presidential nominee, and he advocates for less dramatic healthcare reform.
- __The result:__ The less-probable Bernie victory boosted UnitedHealth's market value by [$20B](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/health-insurance-stocks-rally-biden-125257206.html).




_Health insurance companies after Super Tuesday_

Surge

__"Policy risk" affects some more than others...__ And it's baked into the stock prices of companies in certain industries: Tobacco and gun stocks reflect the risks of anti-tobacco and gun-control policies — Defense stocks mirror the risks of foreign military conflicts. When industry-specific policies shift, the industry stocks react (for better or worse). And 2020 is a year of policy risks. 

Biden's big day is UnitedHealth's best day since 2008

__Secret's in the (faux) leather bag...__  __H&M__ is your go-to for $7 dollar sunnies and floral basics. It's also 1 of the world's [top 3](https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/hennes-mauritz-sustainability-treadler-supply-chain/) fashion retailers. Now, it wants to share its know-how with rivals — for a price. H&M is debuting "Treadler," a service that allows other brands to use its massive clothes-churning infrastructure.

- __Not so glam:__ Clothing supply chains are complex — fashion companies (especially smaller/newer ones) often struggle to organize their own suppliers, production, and logistics.
- __Supply Chain as a Service:__ H&M is offering retailers access to its massive global supply chain — from development, to sourcing, to production, to delivery. Clients can leverage H&M's scale/expertise, and get connected to its supplier partners.

__Sharing "progressive sustainable work"...__ What H&M is positioning this as. It's faced heat for fueling an economy of frequently replaced (and then thrown away) clothes/accessories — aka, fast fashion. 

- The fashion industry may be [responsible for](https://unfccc.int/news/un-helps-fashion-industry-shift-to-low-carbon) __10% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions__ because of those long and energy-intensive supply chains.
- H&M has __been on a big sustainability kick,__ touting the use of recycled materials, [using AI](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3CVBpW75GRQOru2WFW8Wq6/) to make sustainable production decisions, and aiming to be carbon neutral in 10 years — also, its new CEO is its former sustainability chief. 

Supply

__Not about generosity or sustainability...__ More about H&M leveraging its massive infrastructure and excess production capabilities to make a buck. Right now, H&M is only catering to consumers — and fast fashion is struggling. Treadler could generate revenue from other *businesses* as H&M basically Airbnbs out its extra resources. It's a potential H&M revenue source that also reduces others' carbon footprints.

H&M wants to "share" its supply chain with retail rivals (for a cost)

__Surpassing the impossible...__ Tomato, Chicken Noodle, Cream of Mushroom — Campbell's iconic posse of condensed soups is back in action. __[Campbell Soup](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CPB)__ stock jumped 10% after expectations-beating 1% sales growth — That's fantastic, considering US soup sales for Campbell have fallen 8 of the past 9 years. Some things to slurp on:

- __Pantry-staples like canned soup__ are a hot commodity as coronavirus-fearing shoppers stockpile non-perishables.
- __Demand for Campbell's products has grown__, both in-store and online. Now, Campbell is increasing soup production to prep for more demand.
- __Campbell has also been investing__ in better ingredients and more hard-hitting soup marketing (advertising costs [rose 7%](https://www.wsj.com/articles/campbell-raises-earnings-outlook-11583328158) in the quarter).

__Millennials are soup-ing now...__ The CEO credited the surprise sales from "younger households." Apparently, he was [surprised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/campbell-raises-earnings-outlook-11583328158): “Frankly, this is a trend that many believed was not possible” (including him).






Slurp

__Millennial tastes are growing up (kind of)...__ In 2020, a [Millennial](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/) is anyone aged 24 to 39. As we become heads of households and families, our biz-shifting powers grow. Maybe Millennials' juice-cleanse-loving, acai-bowl-scarfing ways are evolving as they transition to buying food for families, not just themselves. Managers should pay attention.

Soup is back — Campbell jumps 10% on canned foods and Millennial families

😅 Healthcare's extra Super Tuesday 

__When they tell you not to freak out...__ but it just makes you panic more. The Federal Reserve announced its first [emergency rate cut](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/03/811565434/fed-cuts-interest-rates-in-emergency-response-to-coronavirus) since the '08 financial crisis, slashing interest rates by half a percentage point. Bold attempt to quash investors' coronavirus-induced fears — but it actually made them panic *more*.

- __"The Fed" is like the economy's Batman__ — watchful guardian, swooping in when danger strikes. Its interest-rate controlling powers have a massive effect on the economy, trickling down from financial institutions to consumers.
- __When the Fed lowers rates,__ banks and lenders do too — that means lower interest rates for variable rate credit cards or savings accounts. It lowers the cost of borrowing while encouraging you to take money out of low-interest accounts.
- __Spending and stock investing becomes more tempting__, while saving and investing in gov't bonds becomes less appealing (because lower interest rates = lower returns). It's all supposed to kick-start economic activity.
- *So stocks often rise after the Fed cuts rates...*

__Except the Fed's economic mind game backfired...__ Like when ramped up security at an event is supposed to make you feel safer, but actually makes you feel like there's a big threat. The move suggests to investors and consumers that things could be worse than originally thought — The Dow plunged 800 points as spooked investors sold off stocks, even though Fed rate cuts often have the opposite reassuring impact.



"_Are you sure about this, Jerome?" — "Do it._"

__The Fed gave the US economy the Heimlich Maneuver...__ when it wasn't choking yet. During the '08 financial crisis, the Fed's aggressive cuts helped bring the economy back to life. But despite recent drops in stock prices, the market is still in an 11-year bull run — and a rate cut won't  turn coronavirus-affected factories back on. The pre-emptive move also limits the Fed's wiggle room if things get *really* bad. 



The Fed's big interest rate cut backfires

__Waymo cash, way less drivers...__ __Waymo__ is the self-driving car project that evolved out of __Google's__ "moonshot factory." It just drove home a whopping $2.25B in investment cash. For the first time, it wasn't all *internal* funding — this was an *external* fundraise. 

- __Waymo was born__ in Google's [X lab](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/17UIm0XkpjsTSi823N7RR7/articles/5BpsL6LpY679695nzlYbcQ/), and later graduated into a subsidiary company of Google's parent, __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__. It's Google's most successful moonshot, valued at an estimated $105B last fall (probably more now).
- __"The World's Most Experienced Driver"__ — what Waymo calls its robotic self-driving tech (it literally [trademarked](https://waymo.com/tech/) the phrase). And it's driven a lot of miles (a whopping [20M](https://venturebeat.com/2020/01/06/waymos-autonomous-cars-have-driven-20-million-miles-on-public-roads/)) to test the concept.

__Waymo opportunities to expand...__ Waymo makes the software and sensors that make driverless cruising possible — it can then sell this tech to other companies as a service — we're calling it *__SDaaS__* ("self-driving as a service"). And its tech (and ambitions) aren't just limited to consumer vehicles:

- __Robotaxis:__ Waymo launched a [ride-hailing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4CMIRC0oKaGgsW6Oip6RC/) service/app called Waymo One (tested in Phoenix).
- __Delivery/Trucking:__ In January, Waymo said it would begin testing autonomous long-haul trucks in Texas and New Mexico.
- __Sensors:__ It has plans to sell its custom [LiDAR sensors](https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/06/waymo-to-start-selling-standalone-lidar-sensors/) outside of vehicle-related industries — think robotics, security, and agricultural tech. 

Drive

__Waymo wants to be the Gore-Tex of cars...__ Look inside your parka and odds are it's ensconced in a Gore-Tex waterproofing liner. Gore-Tex doesn't make the North Face or Patagonia jackets, it just sells its weather-tech to the jacket brands. Waymo is the same way — it doesn't want to make its own driverless cars, it wants to sell its driverless *tech* to other companies. Car companies like Ford are slow to develop the tech themselves, but Waymo also has competition: __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__'s Cruise, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__, among others.  

Waymo drives home $2.25B in its first external fundraise 

💥 The Fed's Batman move backfires 

__Not getting vipassana meditation vibes...__ — __Elliott Management__. The huge hedge fund has bought up over $1B worth of __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__ stock and is putting that power right to work — first by reportedly [nominating](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/01/810979699/jack-dorsey-twitters-eccentric-ceo-could-be-looking-for-a-job-soon) 4 new directors to Twitter's board. But Elliott also reportedly wants to remove/replace Twitter's CEO/co-founder Jack Dorsey. They think Twitter's better off with a new CEO because...

- __He's (too) quirky:__ Silicon Valley founders are known for their visionary-ish eccentricity. Dorsey takes it to another level: 10-day silent [vipassana meditations](https://twitter.com/jack/status/1071575088695140353?lang=en) in Myanmar, a planned 6-month trip to Africa this year, eating 1 meal a day, walking 5 miles to work each day. Objectively cool, but investors are concerned.
- __He's got a (huge) 2nd hustle...__ Dorsey's also the CEO/co-founder of __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__, the digital payments company valued at $35B (more than Twitter's $27B). This double CEO-ship of 2 big public companies is unusual. Elliott wants a CEO for Twitter focused on Twitter.

__Annnd, Jack might have a favorite child...__ Dorsey owns $531M worth of Twitter stock, but a re-tweetable $4.9B of Square stock. Twitter's stock is barely higher now than it was in 2013 when it IPO'd — meanwhile, Square is [thriving](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3jDG5QbIg9uvXFGx9pgzQr/articles/6Cud3kG8KcnM76d9MhBgWh/). 



_A hedge fund trying to understand Jack Dorsey_

Tweet

__The multi-tasking eccentric CEO thing only flies in certain scenarios...__ Here are the 2:

1. If the __company is thriving__ or its stock is up (like with Musk's Tesla), investors may tolerate extracurriculars. But Twitter's earnings growth and share price have lagged.
2. When a founder is __given super-voting stock__ (like Facebook's Zuck) his/her power is protected against investor pressure. Jack Dorsey has neither — and could get sacked from the company he founded.


Twitter's CEO Jack Dorsey gets "ultimatum'd" by a hedge fund — might lose CEO-ship

__The limit does not exist...__  __Panera__ is launching an $8.99/month coffee subscription for members of its (creatively-named) rewards program, MyPanera — which reportedly has [38M members](https://www.businessinsider.com/panera-unlimited-coffee-subscription-cost-how-to-sign-up-2020-2). Starting Thursday, you'll be able to endlessly fill your cup with hot (or iced) Panera coffee and tea. Panera's CEO said it's the 1st brand to do it, but Burger King launched a [similar](https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2019/04/14/burger-king-serves-up-subscription-coffee/#52fa09ec7068) $5/month subscription last year. Here's the idea:

- __$1,100:__ Americans' average yearly coffee spend, according to Acorns (probably double for nitro cold brew fiends) — Panera's subscription costs $108/year.
- __$2.20:__ The price of a Panera [coffee](https://www.businessinsider.com/panera-unlimited-coffee-subscription-cost-how-to-sign-up-2020-2) — if you have 5 or more per month, the subscription saves you $$$.

__Too good to be brew?...__ Exactly what Panera wants you to think. It's betting that you'll be a better customer if you're a subscriber:

- __Frequency:__ Subscribers' monthly visits increased from 4 to over 10 in markets where the program was tested, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/panera-bread-to-offer-coffee-subscription-program.html) Panera's CEO. Plus, 90% of subscribers renewed their subscriptions. 
- __New Business:__ Almost 25% of subscribers were new members to the loyalty program. 
- __Food Sales:__ Panera thinks you'll stop in for the unlimited coffee, then probably grab a bagel, croissant, or huge kale salad on your way out. 

Caffeinate

__A powerful combo of loyalty + cross-selling...__ Owning habits means owning wallets. Panera is offering an attractively priced subscription to lure you (and your coffee ritual) into its ecosystem. The more coffee you have, the more money you'll feel like you're saving with that subscription — and the rewards-driven cycle repeats. Once there, you'll probably get more than a drink (aka extra sales for Panera that wouldn't have happened otherwise). 



Panera wants to be the Netflix of coffee — launches $9/month caffeine subscription 

__Early bird gets the QR code...__ Electric scooter company __Bird__ is trying its wing at payments with a new service called [Bird Pay](https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/25/bird-is-testing-bird-pay-which-lets-users-purchase-items-from-local-businesses-using-its-main-app/). How Bird envisions it: you open the app to unlock a scooter, whizz down the street to a sandwich shop, then pay for your hoagie via a QR code in the app. The angle for customers:

- __Novelty:__ Pretty much none. __Apple__, __Google__, __Venmo__, __Samsung__ and even __Uber__ offer mobile payment products (with wider offerings).
- __Convenience:__ Some (maybe). Saves you a couple seconds if you already have the Bird app open — plus, it's only being offered at certain stores.

__Getting locals on the Bird wave...__ Bird — last valued at $2.5B — is  live in 100 cities. Now it's looking to partner with local businesses in scooter-heavy areas through its new payment feature. The B2B sales pitch: 

- [According](https://www.bird.co/press/bird-pilots-bird-pay-in-los-angeles/) to Bird, __58% of all Bird rides__ start or end at a local business, so...
- Businesses can __increase sales__ by getting promoted in the Bird app (riders scooting nearby see a $3 hazelnut cold brew around the corner)
- __In sum:__ "Birds outside bring business inside," according to CEO Travis VanderZanden (not a Marvel villain) 




__Bird has a community problem...__ And Bird Pay is an elaborate attempt to fix that. Bird is extending an olive branch to business owners, who've been frustrated with metal scooters littering storefronts. It's [offering](https://www.bird.co/pay/) to put businesses "on the map" and connect them with "thousands of potential customers" nearby. If Bird is able to get local business on its side, it'll be better equipped to fend off [resistance](https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/electric-scooter-bans-world/index.html) and regulation from local governments.  