__There's a battle in your living room...__ TV dominated family attention for the last 60+ years — now cord-cutters are moving in. __[Roku's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/roku)__ adorable dongle is the #1 streaming stick in the US, but its competition includes Amazon's Fire stick, Apple TV, and even Comcast (the cable OG offers a streaming box to all internet customers). They're the 700-channel bundles to Roku's single antenna.

__If you think *House of Cards* got boring...__ just watch Roku's stock instead. We noticed that shares dropped 15% Monday, but then bounced up 6% on Tuesday. That's because 2 analysts at 2 different banks had 2 completely opposite interpretations of where Roku shares are going:

- __Down?:__ A Morgan Stanley analyst [blamed](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-roku-stocks/roku-tumbles-15-as-morgan-stanley-warns-of-streaming-exuberance-idUSKBN1Y623K) "__overall exuberance__ over all things streaming” for his Roku stock downgrade. 
- __Up?:__ An analyst at Needham  [thinks](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/roku-stock-bounces-after-needham-gets-more-upbeat-2019-12-03) __Roku is the YouTube of streaming__ — just like YouTube became the default for homemade cat videos, Roku is cord-cutters' future go-to destination for *Chef's Table*.

_Investors are tugging both sides of little Roku_

Streamed

__Roku reveals the nuances of analyst ratings...__ One is a stock upgrade and one is a downgrade, but they're basically arguing whether Roku is great or incredible. Roku controls TV sets for 32M households and the stock has already quadrupled this year to $145. One analyst thinks it's worth $110/share, the other says $200/share — either way, it's a top stock of 2019.

Roku may have just become the most polarizing stock on Wall Street

__End of an era...__ __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOG)__ (aka Google's parent company) suddenly/shockingly announced that Google's co-founders will retire as CEO and President of Alphabet. ASAP. They're replaced by Sundar Pichai, an Indian-born, Wharton-educated 15-year Google vet who worked on the hugely important Chrome and Android divisions — then he became Google CEO in 2015. Here's Sergey and Larry's take on their new roles as mere board members and muggle shareholders:

- "*We believe it’s time to assume the role of proud parents — offering advice and love, but not daily nagging!*"

__DON'T BE EVIL...__ It's right there on [page 5](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312504073639/ds1.htm) of Google's S-1 document from their 2004 IPO. Sergey and Larry founded Google to enable moonshot ideas to change the world (and to help people cheat at trivia). But Google's highly googleable motto conflicts with its recent controversial moves:

- [Project Maven](https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/1/17418406/google-maven-drone-imagery-ai-contract-expire) involved Google's artificial intelligence helping __military drones__.
- 4 Googlers were just [fired](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/fired-google-employees-nlrb-investigation-cbp), and they claim it was for trying to organize a __labor union__.
- Thousands of Googlers [protested](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/nov/08/google-sexual-harassment-policy-overhaul-walkout-protest) the company's soft handling of __sexual harassers__ last year.
- [Project Dragonfly](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2019/07/19/confirmed-google-terminated-project-dragonfly-its-censored-chinese-search-engine/#3ebd403c7e84) was Google's attempt to make a special __censored search engine__ for China.  

_Two top Googlers are done Googling_

Transition

__Alphabet needs 1 decisive leader...__ Larry and Sergey founded Google in 1998 under the religion of do-gooder-ness, collaboration, and trust falls. Today, it's picket lines, political scrutiny, and employee unrest. That recent chaos requires 1 leader, not the awkward trio it had until yesterday. Wall Street rewarded the fresh CEO by inching shares higher Tuesday night after news broke.


Alphabet loses Sergey Brin and Larry Page... the co-founders of Google

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

10-Yr US Treasury

_Two famous Googlers are done Googling_

Google's co-founders go incognito

__"BFCM"...__ That's what __[Shopify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHOP)__ calls the hazy credit card memories of the past 4 days. Now that Black Friday/Cyber Monday is over, we want to highlight another winner (besides omnichannel commerce and shopping on your phone, which we covered [yesterday](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/57GuY5VfvJpyU672ion2le/articles/51xoRvzdEY4ZRuU8XeZ43W)): *Shopify*. 

- [$900M](https://twitter.com/Shopify/status/1200782747574374400) of online shopping went through its ecommerce pipes on Friday. Since $7.4B total was spent online on Black Friday, that means __Shopify handled 12% of all US online shopping__.

__The Force...__ *'An energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us, penetrates us, and binds the galaxy together.'* It's almost like Obi-Wan knew Shopify would empower brands to manage their own ecommerce. Companies that want to sell online have 2 key options:

- __Use a middleman, aka a platform__ like Amazon, eBay, Walmart, Target, Best Buy, or Dick's Sporting Goods. They'll take a cut of the transaction.
- __Do it yourself__. For Allbirds, Kylie Cosmetics, and — even Tesla until recently — Shopify invisibly handled their website, managing the behind-the-scenes of ecommerce from payments to order management.
- FYI, __[Adobe](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ADBE)__ and __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM)__ do this back-end work too (also without you even noticing), snagging monthly software subscription fees for it.

_"Your six-digit activation code, please send"_

Splurge

__Wall Street sees what Shopify is doing, and likes it...__ Shopify isn't profitable — never has been. But when you own a growing share of a growing market, investors are usually happy. That's why the stock price has grown 8x bigger the past 3 years. The hope is that soon Shopify won't have to spend so much on marketing to grow — then it'll be able to sit back, charge companies monthly ecommerce fees, and get profitable. 

Shopify is the Force behind the record Cyber Monday

__McLate...__ A full 3 months after Popeye's faced a crispy chicken sandwich shortage (good problem to have), __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/mcd)__ wants in. Yesterday, the fast food chain started [testing](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/02/business/mcdonalds-fried-chicken-sandwich/index.html) its own caloric version in its Houston and Knoxville restaurants. We know what you're thinking: Didn't fry-master McDonald's already do fried chicken?

- McNuggets and the McChicken Sandwich don't count — they're not "Southern" style.
- McD's has tried multiple other chicken sandwich options, but none came close to Big Mac fame.
- __Solution:__ *Steal Chick-Fil-A and Popeye's Southern-style crispy chicken concept, with butter and pickles.*

__The *other* other white meat...__ is worshipped nationwide right now. Southern-style fried chicken sandwiches became profit puppies for a pair of McD's rivals during last summer's Chicken Sandwich Wars:

- __Popeye’s:__ Feasted on its [best](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/mcdonalds-teases-test-of-a-chicken-sandwich.html) quarterly sales growth in nearly 20 years as its brioche bun-nestled fried chicken sandwich grew sales by 10%.
- __Chick-Fil-A:__ Now America's 3rd largest restaurant chain by sales — Chick-Fil-A has about [double](https://www.barrons.com/articles/mcdonalds-has-a-real-competitor-in-chick-fil-a-51560162600) the sales *per restaurant* as other fast food joints.

_McDonald's chicken spies delivered their report late_

Serve

__McDonald’s franchisees are its secret sauce...__ 9 of 10 McD's restaurants worldwide aren't owned by Ronald, they're actually owned by a franchisee — an entrepreneur who McDonald's licenses its logo/recipes/supplies to in exchange for fees and a portion of their location's sales. Back in July, franchisees wrote a [joint letter](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/mcdonalds-us-franchisees-ask-for-a-chicken-sandwich-to-compete-with-chick-fil-a.html) to McD's asking for a chicken sandwich ASAP... before the Chicken Sandwich Wars. They were right. McDonald's finally admitted it.

After missing the first memo, McDonald's finally jumps into Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars

_"Your six-digit Shopify activation code, please send"_

Shopify is "The Force"

__We need to rename Black Friday...__ Odds are you weren't trampled this year by neighbors in pursuit of a *Frozen 2* doll. We already unwrapped Black Friday sales data — the era of aggressive in-store gift hunting post-Thanksgiving is over:

- __In store:__ Sales at physical stores [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/30/black-friday-shopping-at-brick-and-mortar-stores-dropped-by-6percent.html) __6.2%__ from last year *and* the number of shoppers in those stores fell by __2.1%__.
- __Online:__ Black Friday purchases made online [increased](https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/30/black-friday-sees-record-7-4b-in-online-sales-2-9b-spent-using-smartphones/) by __20%__ to hit a record $7.4B.

__Your phone won Black Friday...__ You're probably not shocked that ecommerce outpaced physical shopping — buying fresh pajamas online while in your pajamas isn't new. But the surprise this year was the domination of smartphone and pick-up orders that transformed Black Friday into "Mobile Cyber Pickup Week":

- __Mobile $$$:__ Too tired to open a laptop? 65% of Black Friday's online sales happened on [smartphones](https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/11/30/record-black-friday-sales-14-growth-to-72b-in-digital-revenue/#1d6b12586aff) — that's the biggest day ever for mobile ecommerce transactions, up 35% from last year.
- __Pickup $$$:__ Annoyed waiting that agonizing 48 hours for shipping? *Yes, we are outrageously spoiled.* "Buy online, pickup in store" sales [jumped](https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/30/business/black-friday-sales-record/index.html) 43% from last year.

_Old school Black Friday reenactors_

__Omnichannel. It's taking over the way we shop...__ Omnichannel is the unnecessarily complicated retail term for making sure all sales channels work together like synchronized elves: Buy Spanx online or in-store, and get them delivered online or in-store. __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ invested heavily in software and logistics to make omnichannel possible... which could be the difference they need to finally slow Amazon's growing control of our shopping.

Black Friday is dead — long live "Mobile Cyber Pickup Week"

__We're getting Lannister vibes...__ from the *Game of Thrones*-worthy strategy behind __[Charles Schwab's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/schw)__ acquisition of __[TD Ameritrade](https://robinhood.com/stocks/amtd)__. First, the discount broker dropped the commission it charges on stock trading to $0 in September — that hurt both Schwab and TD, but damaged TD more since trading commissions made up 32% of its business and only 7% of Schwab's. Then, after injuring commissions-dependent TD, it was easier (and cheaper) for Schwab to acquire its rival for $26B.

__StubHub outgrew its eBay nest...__ So the go-to ecommerce option of the '90s  [sold](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7HLuEmTA2m11YmvuEfOeT7/articles/3bc23LUzhXMzs2tvPUi5o7) its ticketing site __StubHub__ for $4B to European tival __Viagogo__. __[EBay's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ebay)__ fallen way behind Amazon in online shopping, so activist investors pushed eBay to sell the distraction (no offense, StubHub). Now eBay can focus on growing its 6.1% share of US online sales (__Amazon's__ [got](https://www.emarketer.com/content/digital-investments-pay-off-for-walmart-in-ecommerce-race) 47%). At least eBay enjoyed an Antiques Roadshow-esque return: It bought up StubHub for only $310M in 2007.

Highs

Who's up...

__Here's the old news...__ __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/goog)__ acquired __Fitbit__ for $2.1B. Here's the new news: *__[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/fb)__ wanted Fitbit too, and was just [$10M short](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/26/facebook-was-mystery-firm-bidding-against-google-to-buy-fitbit.html) of Google's winning bid*. The failed attempt shows that one of Big Tech's next battles is over your body's data. Apple has its Watch, Google has its own new wearable, and Facebook may have to build up from scratch.

__The tariff war hasn't felt real for us...__ but it's really real for __[Dollar Tree](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DLTR)__. Revenues rose last quarter for the 15K-store chain, but its costs grew faster because of [tariffs](https://www.axios.com/dollar-tree-us-china-trade-war-costs-a9dc23bb-bf29-4e76-ab40-3a5ff2fd3e76.html) it pays for the Made in China plastic-anything it sells — the stock plummeted 19% lower in 1 day on that news. On December 15th, a fresh round of tariffs is [scheduled](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/01/china-wants-tariffs-rollback-in-phase-one-trade-deal-with-us-says-chinese-media.html) — this time on the other half of things from China (which have so far been tariff-free) like electronics, shoes, and other stuff on your wishlist.

Lows

...and who's down

_Looking back at Black Friday's barbaric beginnings_

Phones owned Black Friday

__Subscribe to everything...__ That's the decision that music-focused __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ made back in February when CEO Daniel Ek [said](https://newsroom.spotify.com/2019-02-06/audio-first/) he wanted 20% of Spotify listening to be non-music. When you're not Lizzo-ing or mid-binge on Talking Heads, Spotify wants you podding. So the streaming pioneer came up with a 2-part plan:

1. __Blitz acquisitions:__ Spotify is spending $500M on podcast acquisitions, starting with __Gimlet__ (a production company for podcasts like "Homecoming"), __Anchor__ (a tech platform for creating pods), and __Parcast__ (more pods like "Horoscope Today").
2. __Sign celebs:__ Spotify just revealed to *Hollywood Reporter* that it's [signed](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/spotify-aims-become-worlds-no-1-audio-platform-1256162) podcast deals with Mark Wahlberg, Jordan Peele, and... __the Obamas__. 

__These podcasts aren't for the public good...__ they're for podcast profits. One lovely thing about podcasts is that Spotify gets the content for free. 

- __Music:__ When your Spotify playlist streams *Love on Top*, Spotify pays Beyonce for that. The talent gets the royalties.
- __Podcasts:__ Max Cutler, Founder & MD of Parcast Studios at Spotify [told us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXO_vB5qfgQ) in our live pod interview that podcasts generate revenue through their ads, not by taking their part of Spotify's revenues like 'Yonce does.
- __The result:__ *A podcast listen is more profitable for Spotify than a music stream.*

_This is Nick, this is Jack, and we're your newsletter writers (and pod co-hosts)_

Volume

__A new streaming war is coming...__ You can only watch *The Crown* on Netflix, *The Lion King* on Disney+, and Hulu ads on Hulu (please kill those ads, Hulu). We asked Max if podcasts would go the same way. The answer is... sort of. *Exclusive* podcasts are central to Spotify's plan — the Obama pod will probably only exist on Spotify, even if other Spotify pods are still available on Apple (for now). Audio streaming is tempted by the video streaming playbook.

Spotify is on a talent binge for exclusive podcasts — so it can defeat Apple

Live from Spotify — the future of podcasting

__Dick's is crushing it?...__ That's the shocking takeaway after __[Dick's Sporting Goods](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKS)__' sales jumped 6% last quarter. Looks like the CEO's actions following the 2018 school shooting in Parkland, Florida, boosted support for the big box chain. 

- __Immediate changes:__ Increase the gun-buying age to 21. Stop selling assault rifles.
- __Experimental changes:__ *Maybe we should remove the hunting section completely?* Dick's tested that out this spring in 125 stores. 

__Biking shorts, a soccer ball, and a rifle...__ Casual browsers of Dick's stores could be surprised to find guns and ammo in aisle 6. At first, removing guns wasn't a clear winner or loser for Dick's bottom line:

- __It could've hurt sales:__ Lost gun sales, plus potential boycotts from 2nd Amendment lovers.
- __Or it could've boosted sales:__ Fill the hunting section with better-selling products, plus win love from gun control fans.
- __The result:__ Customer love > Customer hate. The CEO said that sales at the 125 stores without guns or ammo of any kind "[comped positively](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4309255-dicks-sporting-goods-inc-dks-ceo-ed-stack-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single)" with the rest of the chain's stores. *Translation: unarmed stores did better than armed ones.*

_Wondering if they're still going to Dick's now that their guns are gone_

Disarm

__Dick's Sporting Goods is growing?...__ Just like that, this earnings report helped re-write Dick's narrative for investors. Like __Target__, Dick's stock has totally outperformed the rest of the stock market, rising 50% so far this year. Despite online shopping and subscription boxes, Dick's is hanging around, and you're going in for sweat-wicking gear. 

Dick's stock jumps 18% as anti-gun moves may have boosted sales

__2 people. 7:30pm. The table staring at the chef...__ That kind of service used to require a fancy __[AmEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/axp)__ concierge. But in 2020, AmEx will [launch](https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/26/american-express-launches-in-app-restaurant-reservation-booking-following-its-resy-acquisition/) reservation-booking in its app across 10K restaurants for Platinum and Centurion members. Sound like Resy? It is. AmEx bought the trendy-ish reservation app in May. Resy's app still exists separately, but its tech will also power this initiative.

__Keep your butt *comfortably* seated in AmEx's app...__ Keeping your loyalty is what drove all of this. Dining is the top request of AmEx concierges, and daily AmEx app usage jumped 35% from last year. So AmEx wants its app to be more of a pampered destination — and its other Resy-like acquisitions lately help that:

- __Pocket Concierge:__ A Japanese startup [acquired](https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/15/american-express-pocket-concierge/) in January to get you reservations at Michelin-starred restaurants with 14-month waitlists and paycheck-consuming prix fixe menus.
- __Cake:__ A British startup [acquired](https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/23/american-express-eats-cake/) in 2017 to make it way easier to pay for that meal without the awkward "waiter-we-need-the-check-please" handwave.


"_You booked this on an AmEx, Helen? Seriously_?

Reserved

__We're looking for the right case study here...__ and we think it's __Match__. The dating app technically competes with other dating apps. But __[Match Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/mtch)__ owns just about all of them — 45 other dating apps, from Tinder and Hinge to OurTime and Plenty Of Fish. Whether you book a dinner res in AmEx's app or on Resy, you're still swimming in AmEx's ecosystem.

AmEx launches its own restaurant reservation service... fresh after acquiring Resy

_Wondering if they're still going to Dick's now that guns are gone_

Dick's Thanksgiving miracle

__Queen at Wembley...__ Texas vs. USC. [Beychella](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7VdqlvUrCM). When you clench a ticket to a great event, you only sell for a high price. For __[eBay](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ebay)__, it took $4B to give up online ticketing site __StubHub__. The buyer is Swiss-based sports ticketing peer __Viagogo__, whose co-founder ironically also co-founded StubhHub (small world.).

- EBay [paid](https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/25/business/ebay-stubhub-viagogo-deal/index.html) only $310M to acquire StubHub in 2007. It's selling it now for $4B — that's a brag-worthy 13X return.

__eBay just dropped StubHub off at college...__ As one of 2 major destinations for event tickets (the other is __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__-owned __TicketMaster__), StubHub is positioned for success. But it lamely languished in eBay's home — sales last year barely budged up. Now StubHub can reach its full potential as part of a company 100% focused on ticketing. That's what happened with eBay's old subsidiary, __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/pypl)__.

- __2002:__ eBay acquired PayPal for [just](https://www.cnet.com/news/ebay-picks-up-paypal-for-1-5-billion/) $1.5B because it needed some help processing payments.
- __2015:__ eBay spun off PayPal into its own publicly-traded company worth ~$40B.
- __Today:__ PayPal is thriving, worth over $120B.


_eBay went deep on its StubHub investment_

Deals

__eBay needs to focus more on eBay...__ Behind this sale was a powerful crew of activist investors in eBay pushing the company to get back to basics. The OG ecommerce site has fallen behind — here's today's ecommerce [scoreboard](https://www.emarketer.com/content/digital-investments-pay-off-for-walmart-in-ecommerce-race):

1. __Amazon__ is #1 with 47% of the US market.
2. __eBay__ has fallen to #2 with just 6.1%.
3. __Walmart__ and __Apple__ are #3 and #4 — and they're not far behind eBay.

eBay sells off StubHub for $4B so it can go free

__Uber X, Uber XL, Uber [Powdered Wig](https://people.howstuffworks.com/culture-traditions/national-traditions/why-british-lawyers-barristers-wear-wigs.htm)...__ London's transport agency announced out of nowhere Monday that it is [removing](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/nov/25/uber-loses-licence-london-tfl) __[Uber's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/uber)__ privilege to operate in Her Majesty's capital. The reason: "[not fit and proper](https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2019/november/uber-london-limited-found-to-be-not-fit-and-proper-to-hold-a-private-hire-operator-licence)." Let's get more specific:

- __The claim:__ Uber has had a "pattern of failures" that "placed passengers and their safety at risk."
- __For example:__ 43 unauthorized drivers (including some banned by Uber) used their buddies' Uber driver accounts to drive, and even uploaded their profile picture so passengers wouldn't notice.
- __The result:__ London experienced 14K rides with those unauthorized drivers. That also means no proper insurance in place.
- __The verdict:__ Uber's tried to fix these issues, but London doesn't think it's fit to.

__Kate Middleton can still Uber Black if she wants to...__ because Uber is appealing this, naturally. Its other 3.5M Uber riders and 45K Uber drivers will keep ubering too until the courts decide if the ruling is legal or not. London tried to stop Uber 2 years ago, but ultimately gave Uber another shot during *that* appeal.

_Uber got the opposite in London_

Unfit

__Uber's #1 threat is public policy...__ aka government's laws, rules, and regulations. Uber requires politicians' consent to operate, but plenty of them don't like Uber — the brand's become villainous. __Airbnb__, __Lyft__, and __SmileDirectClub__ face similar policy threats, but can learn from where Uber went wrong: Brand reputation is critical when politicians stand between you and profits.

London tries to ban Uber (for a 2nd time) for "unfitness"

$56B of acquisitions in 24 hours

__Most concerning holiday gift ever...__ AmazonBasics — the low-cost versions of simple stuff, from dorm-worthy extension cords to half-price iPhone chargers. Now [__Amazon__](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN) has taken its cheaper private label brands to a new level: Ripping off name-brand innovators and their top products. The latest victim is __Allbirds__.

__Behold, the "206 Collection" wool sneakers...__ [*They*](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Brand-Collective-Mens-Galen/dp/B07MY32W38) look just like [*these*](https://www.allbirds.com/products/mens-wool-runners-natural-black) iconic Allbirds wool shoes — they're straight-up copycat kicks made by Amazon, meant to capture Allbirds fans who want to pay half the price. Here's how Amazon tries to steal sales from Allbirds, the startup specializing in sustainably-made, simply-designed wool shoes.

- __Buy "Allbirds" Google search:__ Allbirds CEO Joey Zwillinger [complained](https://www.axios.com/podcast-amazon-allbirds-e4f77873-b4ad-4b29-94c1-104b793347ce.html) to Axios that Amazon's 206 Collection is sometimes the top result when you search "Allbirds" on Google — because Amazon pays for an ad to show up there. 
- __"Equivalent" product, half price:__ Amazon defended its $45 knockoffs of $95 Allibirds as "saving customers money by offering a private label equivalent.” But Allbirds uses sustainable sourcing and recycled materials. Amazon's don't.
- __PS: Amazon is 1,000x bigger than Allbirds:__ That's based on their valuations — Allbirds' is [$1.4B](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaycoengilbert/2019/01/09/allbirds-reported-billion-dollar-valuation-what-makes-these-strange-birds-fly/#3831b0767d38), Amazon's is close to $1T.

Amazon's inspo for Allbirds knockoff: "We'll call it, McDowell's"

Copy

__Amazon *search* is how Amazon nails knockoffs...__ Allbirds doesn't sell on Amazon because it would be awkwardly placed next to cheaper/identical shoes like "[Urban Fox Wool Runner](https://www.amazon.com/Urban-Fox-Sneakers-Runners-Running/dp/B079S89J1R)". Amazon [claimed](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-private-labels-some-grow-quickly-data-shows-2019-4) this summer that its 100+ private label brands make up just 1% of its sales, but that's a lot. And it's growing. Here's their 4-step *algorithmically-informed knockoff* strategy:

1. __Search:__ Shoe-hungry humans still search for Allbirds on Amazon.
2. __Signal:__ Amazon interprets the high search volume as a signal of customer demand.
3. __Solution:__ Its retail team can quickly create a knockoff of their own to meet that demand with a freshly fake brand name.
4. __Repeat__...


Amazon creates Allbirds look-alike wool shoe, plus hundreds of other knockoffs

__Let's see the bling...__ After weeks of flirting, __[LVMH](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LVMUY)__ reached a deal to acquire __[Tiffany](https://robinhood.com/stocks/tif)__ for over $16B — the biggest luxury acquisition ever. The couple has [chemistry](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/24/lvmh-reaches-deal-to-acquire-tiffany-for-16point3-billion.html): LVMH owns Bulgari, Dior, Dom Pérignon, and other ultra-luxury everything, but its luxe lineup is missing out on one of the top luxury segments last year: Jewelry. Meanwhile, Tiffany is searching for itself as it loses touch with Millennial shoppers ($9,270 for "[Silver Yarn](https://www.tiffany.com/accessories/decorative-accents/everyday-objects-sterling-silver-ball-of-yarn-60558779/)" doesn't help). Classy match.


__Shipping nirvana...__ __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/tgt)__ achieved it. Shares jumped 15% after the department store's 31% rise in online sales last quarter, but here's what fascinated us: *80% of that growth was from same-day delivery/pickup.* Even wilder, same-day delivery squeezes Walmart's and Amazon's profits hard, but same-day delivery magically [cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/target-is-cutting-costs-by-90percent-thanks-to-its-same-day-delivery-options.html) Target's shipping costs by 90%. Spoiler: It manages that by shipping your emergency deodorant stick from the closest Target store (miles away), not a fulfillment center (time zones away).

__Honey wants every second to be Black Friday...__ The startup that harvests online shopping promo codes for you was just [acquired](https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/20/paypal-to-acquire-shopping-and-rewards-platform-honey-for-4-billion/) by __[PayPal](https://robinhood.com/stocks/pypl)__ for $4B (the biggest LA-based tech company to get acquired). It feels like __Honey's__ service is boderline illegal, saving online shoppers $2B since it launched. But it's both legal and profitable — and PayPal wants Honey to help its 300M users buy more online. One problem: Investors (ironically) think PayPal overpaid, so they downgraded PayPal stock after the $4B splurge.

__Looks like RoboCop and a steak knife had a baby...__ __[Tesla's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/tsla)__ new trapezoid-inspired pickup truck goes by [Cybertruck](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck), starts at $39.9K, and was designed (how do we put this?) from scratch. Tesla shares fell 6% the day after the announcement because investors are concerned the unothodox look won't sell. But in just 3 days since the Thursday night freaky unveil, Cybertruck has already [snagged](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-says-146-000-cybertruck-014503031.html) 200K pre-orders (fully-refundable $100 deposits) and most are for its more expensive options.

...And who's down

_Amazon's inspo for Allbirds knockoff: "We'll call it, McDowell's"_

How Amazon knocks off Allbirds

__It's a trapezoid...__ Just days after __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ unveiled its Mustang e-SUV, __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ hit Detroit below the belt with its first pickup truck. "Cybertruck" was [unveiled](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/tesla-cybertruck-unveiled.html) last night by a proud Elon Musk. Starting at $39,900, it looks like a senior graphic design student's art project.

__*Blade Runner (2049)*...__ Elon claims Cybertruck's design was inspired by the 1982 Harrison Ford flick that took place in a dust-filled futuristic November 2019. But we're wondering if it'll even see the streets by 2049. Tesla's Model Y crossover still isn't available and there's even more than that in the backlog.

- __The Tesla [Roadster](https://www.tesla.com/roadster):__ Unveiled November 2017 with an insane 1.9-second 0-60 mph acceleration — *still not available for sale*. 
- __The Tesla [Semi](https://www.tesla.com/semi):__ The tractor trailer looks Terminator-villain inspired, unveiled November 2017 — *still not available for sale*.
- __The Tesla [Cybertruck](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck):__ Unveiled November 2019. Available late 2021 (allegedly). But Elon claims its "exoskeleton" is [bulletproof](https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-bulletproof-stainless-steel-body/)."

_"Blade Runner": Inspo for Elon's e-pickup_

Futurify

__Pickup trucks are like diamond rings...__ the more you spend on them, the more you'll brag about them. Other Teslas look sporty, this looks spooky — and it's aiming for sales from pickup truck buyers who may go function-over-fashion. But if they come around, Elon could mess with __Ford__, __General Motors__, and __Fiat Chrysler's__ profit puppies: pickup trucks.

Tesla unveils (and starts taking pre-orders for) a rad-looking "Cybertruck"

__Designed in Cupertino. ~~Assembled in China~~...__ Assembled in Austin. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/aapl)__ makes almost all its devices in China — except fancy priced-like-a-car Mac Pro computers. Those come out of a Texas factory owned by a company called Flex. And Apple CEO Tim Cook just [hosted](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-apple-factory-tour-tim-cook-pictures-austin-texas-2019-11) President Trump there (+ Ivanka + Treasury Secretary Mnuchin) to show off future Apple expansion plans in the USA.

__Apple got shined...__ That presidential factory visit didn't boost Apple's stock (although it's already incredibly close to a record high). But the *mi casa e su casa* tour earned Tim Cook these 2 surprise quotes from the President:

1. __"*When you build in the United States you don’t have to worry about tariffs:*"__ Apple's Chinese-made goods aren't exempted from tariffs (yet), but any exemption would save some profits.
2. __"*I asked Tim Cook to see if he could get Apple involved in building 5G in the U.S.*"__ Apple isn't building out the powerful wireless network your future life runs on — but this captures their positive relationship with the President.

_"We're good with the tariffs, right?"_

Relationships

__Arguably the best lobbyist in America...__ is Tim Cook. It may not be fair, but policy comes down to relationships. Right now, it's *transactional* relationships. Apple's CEO charmed up one with the President that most Big Tech [won't](https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/20/20973991/trump-tim-cook-apple-friendship-tax-cuts-china-tariffs-manufacturing-jobs):

- __What other tech execs do:__ Amazon's Jeff Bezos owns the *Washington Post* and pushes back on Trump. Facebook's Zuck hates putting on suits and isn't getting any love from anyone in Washington.
- __What Tim does:__ He attends White House dinners, serves on tech-ish advisory councils, and then joins more dinners.
- __What the President gets:__ [This](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/apple-ceo-cook-meets-with-president-trump-at-austin-mac-pro-facility.html) photo opp and [this](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/11/apple-expands-in-austin/) stat that Apple will add $350B to the economy over 5 years. And when he incorrectly claims responsibility for opening that Texas factory, Tim [doesn't mention](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/us/politics/trump-texas-apple-factory.html) it's actually 6 years old.


Apple's biggest lobbying move yet: Tim Cook + President Trump

_"We're cool with the tariffs, right?"_

Tesla's "Cybertruck" is shaped like a trapezoid

__Nothing silky smooth about it...__ __[L Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/lb)__, which owns __Victoria's Secret__, just announced (another) depressing quarter of business: Its loss ballooned by over 6 times to $252M. L Brands' plus-sized loss is the combination of 2 key brands:

- __The Good:__ Its __Bath & Body Works__ chain's skincare lineup keeps having a moment — sales rose 11% last quarter.
- __The Bad:__ Victoria's Secret sales sank 8% as bralettes replace pushup bras.
- __Overall:__ Vicky's makes up 57% of L Brands' sales — that has an [impact](https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/victorias-secret-soon-become-nostalgic-155721921.html).

__American dream (but also awkward/uncomfortable)...__ Les Wexner, a son of Russian immigrants, founded L Brands in Ohio in 1963. Awesome. *But he's still the CEO* — an 82-year-old man decides what panties should be sold with PINK scripted across the butt. The rejection of uber-sexified models lately has __*sunk the stock by 85% in the past 4 years*__. 

_Taking off a bra is easier than taking out a bra CEO_

Refresh

__It's time for some shareholder activism...__ Wexner is inextricably linked to Victoria's Secret as long as he's CEO (btw - he's also Chairman of the board). He represents the off-brand, out-of-touch past. Replacing him with someone who actually reflects women today could save Vicky. We've seen that happen before:

- __Papa John's__ booted founder John Schnatter after a racial slur — Shaq is the new face, and shares are up 50% this year.
- __Weight Watchers__ was beaten by paleo/keto/Atkins — Oprah rejuvenated the brand as an investor and spokeswoman.

Victoria's Secret's quarterly loss grows 6 times bigger — it badly needs a new leader

__Free the nipple...__ Lactose legend __Chobani__ already [dominated](https://www.fastcompany.com/90429873/exclusive-chobanis-empire-was-built-on-greek-yogurt-heres-why-its-next-move-is-oat-milks) yogurt: 19% of all yogurt sales in the US and 43% of all *Greek yogurt* sales are Chobani's. But the still-private company just announced its 1st non-milk lineup, an oat-based family of oat milk, oat yogurt, and Greek yogurt with oatmeal. Here's the bold move: They're all [labeled](https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/14915-chobani-unveils-new-oat-based-product-platform) only "Oat." No "milk." No "yogurt." Mic drop.

__Cleanup in the dairy aisle...__ Chobani's yogurt sales are still growing 8% per year even as overall US yogurt sales are slowing. And America's biggest milk processor, __Dean Foods__, filed for [bankruptcy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1lGG2OkJ051IWSvrC3kvRV/articles/2P0Y0JJ42tkEUzj2cT9kzc/) last week. Alt-milks are having a moment — but oat milk's the one going viral:

- __Soy's out:__ The seasoned elder plant-based beverage isn't trendy enough.
- __Almond's too thirsty:__ It requires 8X as much water to grow the nuts and produce the milk as oat milk does.
- __Quinoa, flax, and hemp:__ Still not mainstream.
- __Oat milk is now top-shelf:__ Sales have [surged](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/18/oat-milk-and-coffee-creamers-chobani-expands-beyond-greek-yogurt.html) 636% in the last year (led by the Oatly brand).
- __And it gets dual-generational love:__ Boomers now reach for plant-based milks (rising lactose intolerance with age) along with Millennials (because it's just, you know, different).

"_Jimmy, we drink 2% in this house. Not oat drink_"

Cream

__How do you know if it's a trend or a fad?...__ Your Snacks team noticed 2 industries that often face fad challenges: Fashion and food. We can't tell you if oat milk's a sustainable trend or a fad that ends before your next grocery run. But we can give you this framework — if you're planning to invest, consider the trend vs. fad phenomenon:

- We think athleisure is a trend with staying-power, but fast fashion is/was a fad that's out. 
- Non-processed foods are a trend, juice cleanses are/were a fad.
- Plant-based beverages like oat milk can spill either way.

Chobani launches its first non-dairy product: Oat (milk)

Chobani cheats on dairy (with oats)

__Home Depot renovated its website...__ *Looks terrible.* The Atlanta-based chain's sales rose 3.6% last quarter — that's [less](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/home-depot-earnings-q3-2019.html) than what investors expected, so shares fell 5%. Plus, __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__ downgraded its outlook for the rest of the year. Strange, because yesterday we also learned that 1.3M homes [began](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/19/us-housing-starts-total-1point314m-in-october-vs-1point320m-expected.html) construction in the US last month. That should mean big Home Depot businesses.

__Windows, not websites...__ One big reason for the miss was Home Depot's botched web development renovation (not exactly its specialty).

- __45% of Home Depot's sales come from professional contractors__, the other 55% coming from "DIY" customers (like us).
- Since pros know the difference between an Allen and a Phillips head, __HD is building them a personalized online shopping experience.__
- __But like all renovations, this project isn't going well__. Investors hoped it would lead to new sales last quarter, but development delays messed with that.

_One of the "professional contractors" Home Depot loves_

Downer

__Home Depot's performance is ruled by an 80/20 rule...__ 80% depends on macro issues it can't control: the housing market, tariffs, and the price of lumber. The other 20% depends on HD's actual performance. Those percentages aren't exact, but you would've expected more from the current situation:

- __Home prices are high__, so DIY homeowners might splurge on re-flooring that bathroom with fresh marble.
- __House construction hit a 12-year high__ last month, so pro contractors should be busting down HD's doors for fresh 2X4s of timber.
- But HD suffered last quarter because it __missed on the part it can control__. 

Home Depot stock falls 5% because it botched a website job

__"The Warby Parker of Warby Parker"...__ is __Warby Parker__. The OG direct-to-consumer brand basically created the cut-out-the-middleman digital-first concept 9.5 years ago with eyeglasses. Then it noticed something: 40% of its customers [also wear](https://www.forbes.com/sites/elisabethbrier/2019/11/19/warby-parker-makes-move-into-contacts-with-the-launch-of-scout/#77ea80fb2b81) contact lenses. So it's launching __Scout__, its own brand of contact lenses.

__Close one eye and read the letters on the chart...__ If you're still squinting to understand why Warby created Scout, just look at the prices — they un-blur the broader strategy:

- __$95__ = typical Warby glasses
- __2 years__ = the average amount of time before most Americans replace their glasses
- __$110__ = a 3-month supply of Scout contact lenses (delivered to your door, of course).
- __3 months__ = that's how often Warby lens customers will pay up for refills — which is $440 for Warby every year.

"_Todd, do you know if the Warby lenses make me look bloated?_"

Launched

__We're calling this the "Sequel Strategy"...__ and we noticed it's trending with Warby's fellow direct-to-consumer unicorns. With a Sequel Strategy, companies spinoff their 1st long-lasting product with new shorter-term ones to snag consistent revenue from the same customers. Here's who's doing it:

- __Warby__ sells you glasses every 2 years — but you buy Scout lenses in between.
- __Casper__ sells you a mattress every ~10 years — but you buy its new sheets and pillows in between.
- __Allbirds__ sells you shoes every ~2 years — but you buy its new socks (you get the picture) in between.