Gonna need a bigger umbrella (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

COOKED

Extreme heat bakes the US and boosts AC, highlighting the need for sustainable chill

__H2O IPO…__ __Liquid Death__ could [bring](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/liquid-death-hires-goldman-sachs-aiming-for-2024-ipo) its viral canned water to Wall Street. The six-year-old sparkling-water wiz is popular for its irreverent marketing, gothy aluminum cans, and "Murder Your Thirst” tagline. Its success has attracted investors from Swedish House Mafia to __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/LYV/)__. Now The Information has reported that Liquid Death has hired __[Goldman Sachs](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GS/)__ for an IPO listing as soon as next spring.

- __Refreshing:__ LD said its sales nearly tripled to $130M between 2021 and 2022. This year it expects to double that (FYI: it’s still not profitable).

- __Liquid likes:__ Its cheeky promos have turned into a cult fave online, with its pages racking up millions of followers on __[Instagram](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/META/)__ and __TikTok__. 

__Putting the cool in carbonated water…__ Booze-free bevvies have sparkled as more Americans shift to a [sober-curious](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/alcohol-alternatives-are-heating-up-as-gen-z-leans-into-the-sober-curious/) lifestyle. Gen Z is driving the trend, drinking about 20% less alcohol than millennials did at their age. But while OG canned-water brands like __La Croix__ and __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/PEP/)__'s Bubly have seen growth taper, Liquid Death has grown thanks to its presence at festivals, bars, and concert venues. Meanwhile, over a quarter of folks in the US say they’re trying to drink less this year.

Quench

__The IPO drought seems to be easing…__ After more than a year of sluggishness in the IPO market, Liquid Death could join the wave of businesses returning to Wall Street. This week, fast-growing beauty tech biz __Oddity__ filed for a $315M initial public offering, and shares of __[Chipotle](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/CMG/)__ rival __[Cava](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/CAVA/)__ more than doubled on its market debut last month. With investors hoping that the Fed will halt rate hikes this year, IPO jitters could ease.

Edgy canned-water biz Liquid Death could go public next year in a (less) dry IPO market

⚖️ __Judgy…__ A judge [ruled](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/cryptocurrenies-jump-as-xrp-ruling-touted-by-industry-supporters) that __Ripple__'s __[XRP](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/XRP/)__ was not a security when sold to the public. The first-of-its-kind ruling is seen as a potential blow to the SEC’s position that most cryptos are securities.

🤔 __Sus…__ Law enforcement [arrested](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/sec-files-lawsuit-against-celsius-network-alex-mashinsky) former __Celsius__ CEO Alex Mashinsky, saying he misled customers and tried to manipulate crypto prices. Crypto lender Celsius, which imploded last year while owing customers billions, agreed to pay a $4.7B settlement. 

🌶️ __Spicy…__ Analytics company __Arkham Intelligence__ said it’ll launch a [marketplace](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/07/10/arkham-intelligence-rolls-out-crypto-data-marketplace-privacy-advocates-cry-foul/) to “deanonymize the blockchain” and help crypto police itself (critics called it “dox to earn”). $300M+ in digi assets were stolen last quarter.

Ripped

The Crypto Catch-up…

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

In one minute, light can travel nearly 11.2M miles

🥵 Extreme heat

__Tastier than a cheese pull…__ Pizza lovers will soon be [able](https://www.wsj.com/articles/dominos-pizza-strikes-deal-with-uber-in-search-for-new-sales-4e6b21fd) to order __[Domino’s](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/DPZ/)__ on __[Uber Eats](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UBER/)__ and __Postmates__. The world’s largest pizza biz serves 1M+ customers daily, and this is its first delivery-app partnership in the US. Domino's has long avoided third-party delivery in the States, preferring to handle orders through its own (popular) app and nearly 7K+ locations. Now:

- __New screen:__ Starting this fall, Domino’s will list on Uber Eats in four cities, including Las Vegas, and expand to the rest of the country by year’s end.

- __Same driver:__ Domino’s will still use its own delivery drivers for Uber orders, to ensure quality control and track its ’zas (#DeliveredHot).

- __Pricey slices:__ The pizza powerhouse expects to generate $1B in extra sales through the deal, with Uber as its exclusive partner through 2024. 

__The OG pizza deliverer…__ Domino’s had long been an outlier (#rebel) for exclusively handling its own orders and deliveries, allowing it to keep 100% of each sale (instead of paying fees to apps). But the calculus may’ve changed as Uber and __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/DASH/)__ take a bite out of Domino’s revenue. Food-delivery apps made up 14% of all pizza sales in the US over the past year — nearly 3X higher than prepandemic. Rivals like __[Papa John's](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/PZZA/)__ and __[Pizza Hut](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/YUM/)__ have been on third-party apps since 2019, and Little Caesars joined Uber in April. Now Domino’s execs think the app-y opportunities outweigh the risks of losing full control.

Spreading the cheesy bread (Domino’s)

Slice

__Have your pie and eat it too…__ By listing on Uber but still delivering its own pies, Domino’s can keep its satisfaction guarantee while gaining exposure to new customers. Uber also plans to share some customer order data with Domino’s. Meanwhile, loyal fans will likely keep using the Domino's app for exclusive offers. Investors seemed to find it all pretty tasty: after yesterday’s announcement, Domino’s stock jumped 11%.

Domino’s pies are coming to Uber Eats as delivery app-ettite heats up

__Crying over spilled skim…__ America is [frothy](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/milk-oversupply-has-us-farmers-in-the-midwest-dumping-it-in-the-sewer?) with excess milk after dairy production hit a record high in May. Demand isn’t keeping up with cows’ output, and cheese factories hamstrung by labor shortages can’t curdle it fast enough. The last time farmers were drowning in dairy was when Covid closed restaurants and schools. Faced with spoiling supplies, farmers have reportedly been dumping dairy into sewers and pouring it on their fields. 

- __Udders in overdrive:__ Dairy cows don’t have an “off” switch, so the only way to limit milk output is by sending them to slaughter.

- __Dairy discount:__ Milk prices have dropped as producers try to encourage bulk buyers to purchase their glut, and June’s consumer inflation #s show price drops have trickled down to shoppers. 

__Perishable probs…__ Milk has a short lifespan, and suppliers can’t even offload it to schools in cartons (ICYMI: it’s summer break). The USDA has historically stepped in to buy (longer-lasting) cheese to stabilize milk prices, and recently started step one of bidding to buy 47M pounds, which could bring dairy prices back up. But the issue might be deeper: while dairy-cow numbers grew 13K from last year (as of May), milk consumption has trended down as plant-based options sip away at Big Dairy’s 86% market share.

Spoiler

__Discounts alone don’t revive thirst…__ Falling milk prices aren’t enough to [persuade](https://www.glamour.com/story/got-milk-gen-z-does-apparently) Gen Z to opt for 2% over macadamia #mylk. So the dairy industry is leaning on marketing. Recently it ran a splashy ad featuring Aubrey Plaza. A few years ago it launched an #UndeniablyDairy campaign (the hashtag has 216M views on TikTok), and had MrBeast tour a virtual dairy farm in “Minecraft.” The ’90s “Got Milk” campaign famously stalled dairy’s decline, and Hailey Bieber recently wore a “Got Milk” shirt on Insta, jus’ sayin’.

America’s got (too much) milk, leading farmers to discount and dump excess dairy

__A banking battle is underway__ as financial regulators crack down on “junk fees.” On Tuesday, regulators [ordered](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/business/bank-of-america-fine.html) __[Bank of America](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/BAC/)__ to pay $250M+ in fines and customer repayments for violations including double-dipping on fees, withholding credit-card perks, and opening accounts without customers’ consent.

- __Junk fees =__ additional charges, often not clearly stated, that are usually tacked on at the end of a transaction (think: airline seat selection fees, resort fees at hotels).

- __Double-dipped:__ In the case against BoA, these fees included $35 overdraft charges that could occur several times on one transaction if a merchant resubmitted a request for payment. Regulators say the bank stopped the illegal practices in 2021-22.

- __Trend alert:__ The moves against BoA are significant, but they pale in comparison to the $3.7B regulatory action brought against __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/WFC/)__ in December over overdraft fees and other violations. Last fall, watchdogs slapped __[Regions Bank](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/RF/)__ with a $191M fine over surprise fees.

__By the numbers:__

- __27%__ of checking-account holders are regularly hit with fees, costing them $288/year on average.

- __85%__ of Americans have encountered junk fees, a 2019 survey said.

- __90%:__ the drop in revenue from overdraft and insufficient-funds fees that BoA saw when it slashed these penalties in early ’22.

Junk

Snacks Unpacked: The junk-fee crackdown

The US has nearly 1B square feet of empty office space

🍕 Domino’s Uber pivot

__160 years young…__ and still kickin’. Clinics promising to lengthen life for a growing number of wealthy clients are [popping up](https://www.wsj.com/articles/longevity-clinics-aging-living-longer-2b98e773?mod=business_lead_pos12) across America. Some charge up to $100K/year to provide customers with out-of-(*deep*)-pocket treatments, like testosterone injections, plasma transfusions, hair rejuvenation, and stem-cell therapies.

- __Guinea-pigging:__ Medical experts warn that the market for these “life-enhancing” treatments is unregulated. Some lack scientific backing, aren’t FDA-approved, and could even introduce health risks.

- __Rich in health:__ One study of people age 50+ suggested that the most important factor in predicting lifespan is wealth. The affluent live longer and have eight to nine more healthy years than the poorest people.

__The fountain of youth…__ is turning into a lake of longevity. Venture-capital investments in longevity clinics more than doubled last year to $57M. In the US — which accounts for 70% of global investment in these clinics — the rich are dipping their toes into the forever-young lifestyle. __OpenAI__'s Sam Altman invested $180M in a biotech startup whose goal is to add a decade to the human lifespan (he also paid a startup to [freeze](https://www.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-billionaire-pays-10000-digitally-back-brain-live-forever-hell-die-first-104931001.html) and digitally backup his brain #UploadToCloud). 

- __Other tech titans__ who’ve invested in antiaging companies include Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and software entrepreneur Bryan Johnson, who spends millions a year on de-aging himself (his experiments have included a plasma transfusion from his teen son).

Age is just a number — when you have millions (andresr/Getty Images)

YoungMoney

__Sci-fi goals can lead to real-sci discoveries…__ According to __[Bank of America](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/BAC/)__ analysts, the immortality and longevity industry could be worth $600B by 2025. Cash infusions from the ultrawealthy could lead to scientific breakthroughs including new cures and innovative methods for spotting diseases earlier — all of which could benefit more than just the 1%.

Longevity clinics promising to lengthen lifespans are attracting venture millions

__Loading up the wish list…__ with discounted hotel rooms. __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AMZN/)__ [teamed up](https://www.reuters.com/technology/amazon-partners-with-travel-site-priceline-first-prime-day-2023-07-10/) with travel-booking site __[Priceline](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/BKNG/)__ in its first-ever Prime Day partnership with an online travel agency. The move comes as consumers are increasingly choosing experiences over material splurges like air fryers, and it’s a (small) way for Amazon to get in on the travel-palooza. 

- __Ring up room service:__ During Prime Day(s) — yesterday and today — Amazon’s US members can get 20% off Priceline’s Hotel Express deals, which offer discounts of up to 60%.

- __Mystery book:__ With Express deals you don’t know which hotel you’ve booked until *after* you pay (and it’s non-refundable). But you’ll know details like star rating and location. 

__Fewer Dyson Airwraps, more airports…__ Amazon’s sales growth has cooled from pandemic highs as retail spending has slowed. But consumers have kept shelling out for travel, which Amazon doesn’t offer (it shuttered the hotel-booking site it launched in 2015 after just two months). The ecomm giant is expecting to set fresh records this Prime Day (which runs through today), but analysts expect economic jitters will slim down online carts. Even hotel demand fell below pre-pandemic levels in May, as consumers looked for cheaper getaway options.

Primeline

__Prime Day is like Groundhog Day…__ for retailers eager to see a long spending spring. Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates have made discounts more important than ever, with consumers starting to rein in spending and seek bargains for everything from groceries to plane tickets. Prime Day should be a temp check for demand, especially as competitors like __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/WMT/)__ and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/TGT/)__ run their own sales events.

Amazon teams up with Priceline on Prime deals to get a piece of the hot travel pie

🧾 *When your paycheck takes a hit but your monthly bills stay the same…*

About every four years, the amount of __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/BTC/)__ that miners get for mining a block is cut in half. This reward reduction, dubbed “the [Halving](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-08/how-bitcoin-s-next-halving-will-affect-struggling-crypto-miners-btc),” steadily decreases the rate at which new BTC is born, to ease inflationary pressure (FYI: total max BTC supply = 21M). The next Halving is expected in April, and barring gains in BTC price or mining efficiency, it could drive some miners into unprofitability.

DEFI(NE)

Heard on the Block: “Halving”

Last week the Earth saw its hottest average temperatures on record

🧬 Buying youth

__“Write a joke in the style of Sarah Silverman”…__ The comedian is suing __OpenAI__ and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/META/)__, saying they [infringed](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/9/23788741/sarah-silverman-openai-meta-chatgpt-llama-copyright-infringement-chatbots-artificial-intelligence-ai) on the copyrights of her book, “The Bedwetter,” in a case that could spark unfunny consequences for AI companies. Silverman, along with authors Christopher Golden and Richard Kadrey, say OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Meta’s LLaMA were “knowingly and secretly trained” using illegally obtained copies of the authors’ books.

- __Exhibit A:__ The lawsuits’ claims include summaries of the authors’ works that they say ChatGPT churned out when prompted, as well as a document trail suggesting that LLaMA was trained on a “shadow library” site called The Pile, which the complaint says contained illegally copied full works.

- __Payback:__ The authors seek payment and other damages, and the suit says thousands of other scribes could be plaintiffs in the case. 

__When imitation ≠ flattery…__ Generative AI has created a legal obstacle course for copyright law. __[Getty Images](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GETY/)__ sued __StabilityAI__ earlier this year, accusing its image generator of using copyrighted pics without permission. And Hollywood actors and writers are seeking protections against AI ripping them off in studio-contract negotiations. Meanwhile, major news publishers may be [prepping](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/newsletters/ZFPm5hIgbozaPl1FkBr62/articles/6PN4qPO0CWXUae6KhAijBD/) for a case to force __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSFT/)__ and __[Alphabet](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GOOGL/)__ to compensate them for using their articles in AI search results. 

- __Law and AI order:__ Last month the EU passed a draft of its “AI Act,” a historic law that would make AI companies create safeguards against illegally generating content.

- __Cite your sources:__ It would also require companies to disclose any copyrighted materials used in training their models (which critics say is technically impossible).

A new chapter for AI lawsuits (Lars Niki/Getty Images)

Copywrong

__AI is a two-headed beast for creators…__ Not only are AI programs trained on original works, but they also use those works to churn out new content. AI has the potential to make pre-existing works less valuable while stealing future opportunities from human creators. Yet some argue AI programs are just another tool that creators can leverage (think: photographers editing in Photoshop).

Sarah Silverman sues Meta and OpenAI, alleging their language models ripped off her book

__The Mouse House has rooms for rent…__ Travel season’s in full swing, but the “Happiest Place on Earth” may be feelin’ a summer slump. __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/DIS/)__'s US amusement parks are said to be seeing [thinner crowds](https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-world-crowds-universal-studios-florida-36b0a579) and shorter ride wait times. Disney World, whose Magic Kingdom puts on a special fireworks show every July Fourth, saw its lightest Independence Day attendance in nearly a decade. Execs have said they’re expecting weaker US earnings this year. 

__Losin’ the magic…__ Despite Disney’s fantasy-land park stylings, attendance may be dropping for earthly reasons. Disney has in recent years upped pricing across the board (tickets, merch, food) and nixed some freebies. Last year Disney raised ticket prices twice, with hikes of up to 14% at Florida’s Magic Kingdom. The goal: squeeze more $$ out of fewer customers. Higher prices appear to be giving would-be visitors pause, and not just in Disney parks: 

- __More-lando:__ Orlando, Florida (home of Disney World and Universal Orlando) is one of the priciest family-vacay destinations. On average, a weeklong trip will cost a family of four $7.3K.

- __Adding up:__ Travel costs more broadly are up 16% from prepandemic times.

GOOFY

__Experiential spending enters the discount phase…__ Demand for “revenge travel” shows few signs of slowing, but it may be *shifting* as experience-seeking vacationers try to spend smarter. In Europe, families are opting for cheaper summer destinations (picture: Costa Brava over the Canaries, Albania over Italy) or delaying trips to shoulder-season September. Cooling attendance suggests Disney’s magic may have a price cap too. In May, Disney said [it would close](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/disneys-already-closing-its-immersive-star-wars-hotel-as-superfans-hit-their/) its “Star Wars” hotel. The cost of a two-night stay for a family of four: $6K.

Disney parks see thinner crowds as family travelers seek bargain experiences

Goldman Sachs said India's economy will surpass the US’s by 2075

📚 Sarah’s AI lawsuit

__Rolling up the red carpet…__ Hollywood’s picket lines could grow longer as more showbiz workers fight for better contracts. In May, the Writers’ Guild of America (repping 11K+ scribes) went on strike to [demand](https://www.wga.org/news-events/news/press/writers-guild-of-america-calls-strike-effective-tuesday-may-2) higher pay and stronger job protections. Then last week, the unrest intensified with actors in the spotlight: the SAG-AFTRA union, covering 160K entertainers, also failed to get better terms from studios, and extended its contract deadline. 

- __Oscar status:__ 1K+ actors (including A-listers like Meryl Streep and Jennifer Lawrence) said they’re prepared to strike if a SAG deal isn’t reached by Thursday. It would be Hollywood’s first two-union strike in more than six decades.

- __Losing gold:__ The writers’ strike is said to be costing California $30M/day. If it runs over 100 days, about $81B in direct wages from 800K film and TV jobs could be at risk.

__Tiny rooms, big problems…__ Much of the Hollywood unrest is a result of streaming’s rise, as studios like __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/NFLX/)__ and __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/DIS/)__ hustle to crank out new content to keep subscribers happy. While OG writers’ rooms (think: “Friends,” “30 Rock”) typically employed 7 to 10 staff writers for several months, “mini rooms” are becoming the norm. The problem: mini rooms hire fewer writers and offer lower pay — and contracts often last only a few weeks. Piling on to streaming woes, AI’s causing unrest as writers and actors worry over how chatbots and deep fakes might replace them (see: “Black Mirror”).

Pressed pause (Gary Coronado/Getty Images)

Showbiz

__Hollywood’s lights reach beyond the stars…__ The film and TV biz creates 2M+ jobs in the US, contributing $186B in annual wages. A single film shot on location can add $250K/day to a local economy (picture: hotels and catered veggie trays). Now, Tinseltown could lose its sparkle as studios look outside the US to feed their content machines. Netflix, for instance, said it would spend $2.5B on Korean content in the next few years.

Hollywood strikes intensify as the streaming model turns studios into content farms

__Hip surgery back on the iCal…__ Health insurers padded their profits during the pandemic as folks hunkered down at home and avoided germy waiting rooms. As Americans postponed non-urgent surgeries, insurance giants got to keep their monthly premiums *without* having to cover as many doc bills. But last month, __[UnitedHealth](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UNH/)__ said its costs are rising as older adults finally return for pricey procedures. The US’s biggest healthcare provider posted a strong $5.6B profit in May, but its streak could be losing steam as older people rack up higher insurance bills.

__Zero-conversation Ubers…__ This week, California regulators are expected to approve permits for __Waymo__ and __Cruise__ to run their driverless ride-hail services 24/7 anywhere in San Francisco. Currently, the city has restrictions for when and where driverless rides can happen. Waymo and Cruise both have standalone apps, and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UBER/)__ plans to start offering Waymo rides later this year. Hilly SF has been a “hey look, it works” city for autonomous-vehicle makers, but officials say the cars create traffic, block fire trucks, and even whiz through crime scenes.

Events

Coming up this week

__“Good news” = “bad news”?…__ After ADP’s piping-hot jobs report came in at [double](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/blistering-june-jobs-growth-and-rising-wages-give-investors-a-case-of-the/) expectations (nearly 500K private-sector jobs added), the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst day since May. A sizzlin’ labor market means the Fed may keep rates higher for longer to cool inflation, and traders upped their bets of a July hike. But then Friday’s official jobs report showed *strong but cooling* hiring (209K jobs added vs. 240K expected), and the market briefly ticked up. Now investors are waiting on Wednesday’s June consumer inflation data, crossing their fingers for some #goodnews.

__Priming the court suit…__ The FTC could crash __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AMZN/)__'s birthday (Prime Day’s tomorrow) as it gears up to file a sweeping antitrust suit within weeks. It’d be the fourth and largest suit FTC Chair Lina Khan has led against the e-tailer. The core allegation: Amazon boosts sellers who use its “optional” services, like shipping and advertising, over those who don’t. So its algo may put preferred sellers in the one-click “Buy Box” section. Khan could seek a total restructure of the platform. Amazon would almost certainly appeal.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching

- __[Threats](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/meta-launches-a-twitter-rival-as-the-tech-titans-face-off-for-fresh-eyeballs/):__ __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/META/)__ launched Threads, a text-focused social network, in 100+ countries —  and within two days it was downloaded 70M times. Some are already calling Threads a “Twitter killer” given Meta’s massive reach.

- __[BAYC](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/bored-apes-flounder-as-the-once-hyped-nft-biz-fails-to-keep-the-buzz-alive/):__ Some Bored Ape NFTs (including Justin Bieber’s) have plunged in value as blue-chip NFT prices slide. Apes biz __Yuga Labs__ has struggled to stay buzzy as its hyped virtual word remains under construction.

- __[Uturn](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/new-car-sales-soar-as-us-shoppers-shrug-off-sticker-shock/):__ New US car sales surged by as much as 14% in the first half of this year. __Cox Automotive__ predicts that car buying will cool in the second half, but still upped its sales estimate to 15M.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

The most distant active supermassive black hole, discovered this month, is 9M times the mass of the Sun

🎬 Hollywood strikes back

__It’s hot in here…__ but don’t blame the summer swelter. Last month the US labor market appears to have gone from 75 and sunny to 95 and boiling. Yesterday __[ADP](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/ADP/)__ reported that private-sector companies added nearly 500K jobs in June — more than *double* what was expected, and the most in over a year. It’s a big ramp-up from May’s 267K gain. 

- __Planes, trains, and restaurant chains:__ The leisure and hospitality industry led the charge, accounting for 232K of new hires.

- __Fed up:__ Despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to quell inflation and cool the hot jobs market, there are still nearly two open roles for each available worker.

- __Fell Dow:__ Yesterday the Dow and S&P 500 had their worst day since May as investors feared that “good” labor news could mean more rate-hike woes.

- __FYI:__ Today we’ll get the full jobs report from the Labor Department (which doesn't always match the ADP's #s). 

__Direct-deposit feeling…__ While the pace of wage growth cooled, annual pay jumped 6.4% from a year ago, and for people who switched jobs, the median bump was over 11%. For a chunk of the pandemic, wages weren’t keeping up with rising prices. Recently, though, paychecks were back to growing *[faster](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-greedflation-starts-to-fade-wageflation-creeps-in-1adb7b9c?mod=business_lead_pos11)* than inflation. That’s good for workers but not great for companies’ bottom lines. In the first quarter, labor costs per unit of sales jumped 6% — more than prices — while profits per unit of output were up a measly 1.6%. 

Comin’ in hot (Michael Macor/Getty Images)

9-to-5

__Payrolls are a two-sided coin…__ A strong labor market and rising wages can boost spending and strengthen the economy. But they can also exacerbate the sticky-inflation problem (higher labor costs can = higher prices). Now investors worry that the Fed’s interest-rate hill could get steeper. If today’s Labor Department report is as hot as the ADP’s, rate-hike expectations could rise.

Blistering June jobs growth and rising wages give investors a case of the Fed sweats

__Got me like, baby, oh no...__ Justin Bieber’s Bored Ape non-fungible [token](https://gizmodo.com/justin-bieber-bored-ape-price-collapse-million-dollars-1850606250) is worth 95% less than the $1.3M he paid for it in January 2022, as the value of Bored Apes and other blue-chip NFT collections plummets. The cheapest Bored Ape on the market (aka the “floor price”) could be had for 27 ETH on Sunday, down 88% from a peak of 152 ETH in April 2022. NFTs in a recently launched Bored Ape spinoff game have fallen too.

- __Class rep:__ __Yuga Labs__ — which owns Bored Apes, CryptoPunks, and other NFT collections — is one of the best-known NFT companies, and cooling interest in its tokens could be a bad sign for the broader industry.

__It’s not a “gm” for NFTs…__ NFTs were a buzzword in 2021-22. But after cratering later last year and clawing back some of its interest earlier this year, the non-fungible tide has turned once again. NFT royalties, a revenue driver for the collections’ creators, are at their lowest point in two years, partly because they often aren’t enforced. Just $10M in NFTs are being sold daily, compared to $30M last year. Popular NFT collections including Doodles and Pudgy Penguins have seen recent price dips, and __Azuki__ Elementals fell nearly 60% last week following a controversy with its founder.

Yawn

__Buzzy businesses need to keep things fresh…__ While investors might not expect much excitement from a century-old canned-goods company, innovative products like NFT collections need to keep churning out new-ness. But Yuga Labs appears to have let its bananas go from ripe to rotten, and it may be running out of time to even make bread. It’s been hyping the release of its virtual world, dubbed Otherside, since March 2022 — but after buyers spent $320M on Otherside “deeds,” they’re still waiting for the world to go live.

Bored Apes flounder as the once hyped NFT biz fails to keep the buzz alive

😰 __Stressin’…__ A new report suggested that crypto-related job [openings](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/07/06/collapse-crypto-bubble-job-listings-tumble/) in major US cities were down as much as 80% from their highs in 2021 and ’22, when hotspots including Miami and NYC sought to become crypto hubs as __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/BTC/)__ prices soared. 

🌶️ __Spicy…__ Taylor Swift had reportedly [agreed](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/taylor-swift-agreed-to-ftx-partnership-despite-contrary-public-claims-source.html) to a $100M promo deal with __FTX__ before the crypto exchange backed out. Investors are suing celebs including Tom Brady and Larry David over their roles in promoting the now failed company. 

🪙 __Coins…__ The price of bitcoin no longer seems so tightly [correlated](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/07/05/bitcoin-is-no-longer-correlated-to-us-stocks/) with US stocks. For some of last year, the OG crypto traded in parallel with tech stocks as investors and pundits declared the "digital gold" narrative dead.

BADBLOOD

The Crypto Catch-Up…

In commercial planes, fuel is usually stored in the wings

🔥 Hot summer jobs

__Musk vs. Zuck…__ Not talkin’ cage matches. __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/META/)__ announced a new social app yesterday, dubbed Threads, and it’s already live in 100+ countries. ICYMI: Like __Twitter__, Threads lets users share real-time text updates as well as like, comment, and repost. Unlike Twitter, Threads didn't launch with a chronological-based feed, and there is no direct messaging. Meta’s hoping its 3B Facebook and 2B Instagram users will add the Twitter dupe to their quiver of apps. Sweetening the deal:

- __IG-friendly:__ Threads users can sign into the new app with their Insta accounts and use the same handle on both platforms.

- __A-list invites:__ Meta recruited celebs including Gordon Ramsay and Shakira to start threading (aka: posting). The hope: big names will attract big download #s. And then there’s the competition…

__Clipped wings…__ From site malfunctions to controversial content-moderation moves, Twitter’s problems have piled up since Elon Musk bought the biz for $44B last year. Musk recently tweeted that unverified tweeters would (at least temporarily) be limited to seeing 1K posts/day, while paying subscribers would get 10K views. Next month, Twitter said it would restrict TweetDeck — a popular tool for following numerous timelines — to subscribers. Now, it’s not just Meta trying to pick up Twitter’s dropped ball:

- __New Nests:__ __Bluesky__, a decentralized social app, had to temporarily pause sign-ups last weekend after seeing record traffic. Rival __Mastodon__ also reportedly saw a sign-up spike. 

Zucked (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Threads

__One app’s troubles can be another’s treasure…__ Meta wants to spin Twitter’s trials and tribulations into biz gold. Some are already calling Threads a “Twitter killer” given Meta’s massive reach. But success isn’t guaranteed. In February, Meta shut down its __Cameo__-esque app Super less than two years after launch, and in March it shuttered its live-shopping feature.

Meta launches a Twitter rival as the tech titans face off for fresh eyeballs

__Joy ride…__ straight off the lot. New US car sales surged by as much as 14% in the first half of this year, as the auto industry pulled ahead into a post-pandemic [comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/auto-sales-defy-gloomy-forecasts-431ee1f5). __[GM](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GM/)__, __Kia__, __[Nissan](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/NSANY/)__, and __[Honda](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/HMC/)__ have all recently reported strong new-vehicle sales in the second quarter, while EV-only peers __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/TSLA/)__ and __[Rivian](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/RIVN/)__ delivered more vehicles than expected.

- __Hittin’ the gas:__ Research firm __Cox Automotive__ (think: Kelley Blue Book, Autotrader) jacked up its estimate of how many new vehicles will be sold this year to 15M, from just over 14M.

- __Butterfly doors:__ As people bought more expensive rides, including EVs, average new-car prices hit $46K last month. That’s up 3% since the start of the year.

__Shiny and new…__ American consumer confidence jumped to a 17-month high in June, even as some experts continued to anticipate a recession. Consumers’ warm-and-fuzzy economic feelings could help drive big-ticket buys like cars, but the open road may hide some speed bumps:

- __Full lots:__ With pandemic-related supply-chain kinks mostly ironed out, automakers’ inventories are growing after three years of being limited.

- __Bumpy road:__ Some analysts say production may’ve ramped up *too* much and that dealers could be left with a glut at the end of the year. Translation: potential discounts.

U-turn

__It’s hard to call a race midway…__ Despite recent rosy #s, Cox Automotive predicts that car buying will cool in the second half of this year (it still hasn’t caught up to pre-pandemic levels). Plus, as used-car prices have fallen from their highs, shoppers may opt for pre-owned versus new. And while consumers’ plans to buy pricey items (picture: cars, houses) have been in high gear, the latest Consumer Confidence Index suggests they could cool later this year as rates rise.

New-car sales soar as US shoppers shrug off sticker shock

Elon Musk’s net worth has increased by about $100B this year

📱 Meta’s “Twitter killer”

__Regulators’ doors of perception…__ may be starting to crack open. The US Food and Drug Administration recently took a big step toward boosting psychedelic drug therapy. The agency — which regulates everything from food to cosmetics to tobacco — [issued](https://hightimes.com/news/fda-issues-draft-guidance-for-clinical-studies-on-psychedelics/) its first draft guidance for how it’ll suggest researchers design clinical trials for psychedelics. It could make the eventual process of gaining FDA approval clearer for drug companies seeking to develop psychedelic drugs intended for alternative therapies (translation: a potential business boom).

- __On the table:__ The FDA’s draft guidance mentions LSD, psilocybin, and MDMA.

- __Playing catch-up:__ Psychedelic-assisted therapy has been used to treat post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, eating disorders, and addiction. 

__Money follows culture…__ Even before the FDA moved to tee up clinical trials, business was ready to take a swing. By last year, 50+ psychedelic companies, including __[Compass Pathways](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/CMPS/)__ and __[ATAI Life Sciences](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/ATAI/)__, had gone public at a combined $2B+ valuation. Analysts expect the market will reach $12B by 2030, and it’s not just a US phenomenon. Australian doctors, for example, can now prescribe MDMA and psilocybin for the treatment of depression and PTSD. Culturally, psychedelics appear to have arrived. The best-seller “How to Change Your Mind” inspired a __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/NFLX/)__ series, and hardly a month goes by without an article detailing Silicon Valley CEOs’ use of psychedelics.

Tuned in (Cole Burston/Getty Images)

DRUGS

__Durable foundations are built brick by brick…__ The road to FDA-approved psychedelic drugs has been long (and is ongoing). MAPS, a nonprofit that advocates for psychedelic therapy, recently held a 10K-person [conference](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/massive-psychedelics-conference-sees-big-names-advocate-for-fda-approval/) in Denver attended by celebs including Aaron Rodgers and Melissa Etheridge. Historically, indigenous populations worldwide have used psychedelics for healing. Looking ahead: the FDA’s draft guidance represents a meaningful step for drug companies looking to enter the market, but hurdles remain. Namely, the DEA still classifies psychedelics as having “no currently accepted medical use.”

FDA creates a wake for psychedelic drugs as a flood of cash flows into alt therapies

__Dustin’ off the ol’ cubicle…__ The jobs market has stayed strong despite high interest rates and pesky inflation. In May, US hiring ramped up as employers added a whopping 339K jobs (economists had predicted 195K). And while industries like leisure and hospitality have seen a flood of new hires, they’ve started to cool. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher. Some economists say the jobs market may’ve peaked as fewer Americans join the tail end of the Great Resignation. We’ll get the latest on the labor market when June’s job #s drop on Friday.

__501s with a fraying hem…__ __[Levi](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/LEVI/)__'s has cemented itself as a multi-generation must-have. In the first quarter, its CEO said it was the “market share leader” among 18- to 30-year-olds after topping revenue and profit expectations. Its direct-to-consumer and ecommerce biz saw strong sales growth, too, contributing 42% of all revenue. But none of it fully offset excess inventory, a problem that has many retailers’ zippers stuck. We’ll see whether discounts to sell off the glut ate into Levi’s margins when the denim icon reports this week.

__Checkin’ the bill…__ Natural gas ended June costing half as much as it did the same time last year when prices hit a decade+ high as Europe bought US gas after Russia invaded Ukraine. But suppliers on both sides of the Atlantic saved up more than they needed given the unusually warm winter. Now there’s 15% more stored gas than the five-year average, which is setting up households for cheaper electric bills even as scorching heat blankets the US. FYI: last year 41% of the US’s electricity was generated by natural gas.

__Can you hear me now?...__ Last week President Biden announced a $42B plan to make high-speed internet available to every US household by 2030. About 6% of Americans lack broadband, and coverage gaps create hurdles for critical institutions like schools and libraries. The funds’ll be divvied up over the next two years, with each state receiving at least $107M, and up to $3B+ for those that need it most. In rural areas, nearly a quarter of residents (14.5M people) have no reliable broadband. The fresh $$ could be pivotal in closing the digital divide.

- __[Hot dog](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/costco-comes-for-membership-sharers-as-the-subscription-squeeze-intensifies/):__ __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/COST/)__'s cracking down on membership sharing by checking cards *and* photo IDs. The bulk grocer follows in the unchill footsteps of Netflix, which reportedly boosted its paid subs after booting password-moochers.

- __[Rolax](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/from-amazon-to-ebay-online-vendors-face-increased-scrutiny-as-the-inform-act/):__ The Inform Act is now in effect, requiring online marketplaces like __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AMZN/)__ to check some sellers’ gov’t and tax IDs. __[Home Depot](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/HD/)__ and __[Best Buy](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/BBY/)__ have been pushing to rein in shady resellers.

- __[AYCE](https://sherwoodmedia.com/snacks/the-all-you-can-eat-buffet-is-back-for-seconds-as-diners-search-for-value/):__ Buffets are back as consumers worry less about germs on communal piles of crab legs. Visits to __Golden Corral__, __Cici’s__, and __Pizza Ranch__ have spiked this year, with regular sit-downs seeing a smaller uptick.

The winner of the Tour de France will burn the equivalent of about 210 Big Macs

🍄 Psychedelic therapy’s moment

__3-minute vitamin ad…__ no skip button. __[Google](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/GOOGL/)__ is facing intense scrutiny after an ad-analytics biz said the Silicon Valley giant repeatedly [broke](https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-violated-its-standards-in-ad-deals-research-finds-3e24e041) its own policies for video-ad placements. FYI: Google’s YouTube alone takes in 8% of the $47B spent yearly on US digital ads, and name-brand advertisers shell out big bucks for prime YouTube and webpage placement. But this week research firm __Adalytics__ dropped a bombshell report alleging that Google has violated the fine print of its video-ad deals 80% of the time — which potentially costs advertisers *billions*. 

- __ICYMI:__ The report said the ads ran in muted, auto-playing formats or appeared on undesirable webpages (like: clickbait).

- __VIPs:__ __Adalytics__ said ads from __[Macy’s](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/M/)__, __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/DIS/)+__, and __[American Express](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AXP/)__ — plus gov’t agencies like Medicare and the Social Security Administration — were possibly affected.

- __Google__ disputed the findings in the report, saying it “makes many claims that are inaccurate.” But that hasn’t stopped some businesses from asking for their $$ back.

__Ad dilemma…__ While ad-placing platforms like __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/META/)__ and __Google__ have rules against deceptive ad practices, it’s an ongoing battle. Last year __Google__ said it blocked (or removed) 142M ads that broke its misrepresentation policy (picture: false advertising, brand impersonation). And last year Meta got fined $414M after EU regulators said it forced users to accept personalized ads.

Do not collect $200 (Leonardo Munoz/Getty Images)

Skip

__One spark can start a fire…__ and Google has its eyes on several. As recently as 2021, advertising made up 80% of its revenue. Now sales have dropped for the past two reported quarters. Moreover, EU regulators are calling to break up Google’s ad biz entirely. The build-up of problems could threaten Google’s ad reign just as the industry slows. Growth in digital-ad spend is forecast to dip below 10% this year for the first time in 14 years.

Advertisers push back against Google after a report accused the tech titan of faulty video-ad placements

__#Sponcon fail…__ __Shein__ invited six influencers to its factory in Guangzhou, China, where the social-media stars posted content praising the fast-fashion giant’s working conditions. The posts [went viral](https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexalisitza/reactions-shein-influencer-trip?) as TikTokers called out the ”vacation” as a PR gimmick that glossed over alleged labor-rights abuses.

- __Concerns:__ Last month US lawmakers asked for an independent audit of Shein over allegations that the retailer relies on Uyghur forced labor.

- __Ongoing issues:__ One investigation said Shein employees worked 18-hour shifts in unsafe environments for as little as $20/day.

- __Failing score:__ The Fashion Transparency Index, which measures brands’ sustainability and working conditions, rated Shein 2.2%... out of 100.

__Fast fashion’s factory problem…__ The $106B fast-fashion industry makes its money by quickly turning #trends into affordable ’fits. Shein’s not the only fashion co that’s gotten supply-chain side-eye. In 2013 a Bangladesh clothing factory collapse killed more than 1K people. __Forever21__ landed in hot water after accusations that it underpaid workers. Now __Zara__ and __Uniqlo__ are being sued in France over allegations related to Uyghur forced labor.

Unfluence

__You can’t influence your way out of structural problems…__ The internet didn’t buy the squeaky-clean narrative Shein’s influencer field trip presented, and now conversations about the brand’s labor practices dominate its hashtags. As it reportedly prepares to IPO, Shein may benefit from focusing on its supply chain over its socials.

Shein’s sponsored influencer trip backfires as consumers call out fast fashion’s labor record

- 🤔 __Sus…__ __Binance__ founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, who apparently splits time between Paris and Dubai, has [reportedly](https://www.semafor.com/article/06/29/2023/with-binance-under-attack-in-france-founder-cz-is-bunkered-down-in-dubai) been sticking to Dubai. French authorities were recently said to be investigating Binance in connection with money laundering.

- 🌶️ __Spicy…__ __FTX__ is actively working to [relaunch](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-begins-talks-on-reboot-as-managers-uncover-past-misconduct-38ad7e3c) its international crypto exchange. If successful, a reborn FTX exchange would find a stricter regulatory landscape reshaped by FTX’s own implosion last year.

- 💰 __Spendy…__ __[MicroStrategy](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/MSTR/)__ said it [bought](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/28/michael-saylor-microstrategy-bitcoin-buying-spree-347-million/) nearly $350M worth of __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/BTC/)__ over the past two months. BTC is up 82% in the past six months as regulators crack down on altcoins like __[solana](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/SOL/)__ and __[matic](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/MATIC/)__.

Wall Street intern pay has jumped 20% this year

💻 Google’s video-ad drama

__2 hours on the tarmac…__ $20 food voucher. As severe thunderstorms rip across the US, airlines are [feeling](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/summer-air-travel-severe-weather-faa-shortfalls-kick-off-rocky-start.html) the heat. Since Friday, 15K+ US flights have been delayed and nearly 5K canceled. The disruptions affected flights headed to New York and New Jersey airports — with delays averaging 3+ hours. Additional snags popped up in hubs like DC, Chicago, and Atlanta.

- __Rough skies:__ __[United](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/UAL/)__ said the FAA “failed” it after storm-related restrictions forced the airline to cancel nearly a fifth of its Monday flights.

- __Déjà blues:__ __[JetBlue](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/JBLU/)__ also saw a high # of delays, after which the airline told employees it had room to improve its response.

__A perfect storm…__ Summer is crucial for airlines’ balance sheets as folks pack planes and splurge on tix. Delta boosted its earnings guidance this week, pointing to “off the chain” travel demand. Still, stormy skies could rain on the profit parade. As of February, weather cancellations were up nearly 20 percentage points compared to 2018. What’s more, airlines are still grappling with staff shortages after a pandemic exodus. And setbacks add up: __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/LUV/)__ said it expected to lose up to $425M on its holiday meltdown last year.

Not lovin' it (Selcuk Acar/Getty Images)

Stormy

__It’s more than a passing storm…__ As travel szn takes off and extreme weather picks up, airlines plan on getting put to the test. Summer travel is already topping prepandemic levels, and the FAA said more delays are likely. This July Fourth weekend, nearly 4.2M travelers are estimated to fly — an 11% increase over last year.

Severe weather jolts the airline industry as expected record-breaking summer travel takes off

__No free hot-dog lunch…__ __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/COST/)__ said it’ll [start checking](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/28/costco-clamping-down-sharing-membership-cards/) membership cards *and* photo IDs at its self-checkout kiosks. The goal: keep nonmembers out. Similar to the __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/WMT/)__-owned Sam’s Club, Costco charges its 66M paying members a yearly subscription fee. In return, customers get access to the store’s bulk-pricing deals via membership cards they show at checkout. At least in theory. The big-box behemoth said it noticed an uptick in people sneaking in with someone else’s card.

- __Pay to shop:__ Members pay $60/year, with an “executive membership” costing $120.

- __Members only:__ Ensuring its shoppers are actual members matters because the chain makes most of its income from subs. Last year, membership fees raked in $4.2B. 

__When sharing isn’t caring…__ Costco isn’t the only biz sick of subscribers sharing the bounty. After several delays, last month __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/NFLX/)__ said it’d start telling customers “your Netflix account is for you and the people you live with — your household.” Despite years of tolerating (and sometimes encouraging) password sharing, the streamer put the kibosh on the free rides. The ’Flix now charges sharers an extra $8/month for non-household accounts.

SLICE

__More users doesn’t always equal more profit…__ The sharing economy’s getting squeezed, and even companies that explicitly built sharing into membership perks have walked things back. This year __[American Express](https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/AXP/)__ said many cardholders could no longer bring guests into its airport Centurion Lounges for free (new charge: $50). While corporates’ anti-sharing moves may come off as Grinch-like, they stand to benefit bottom lines. BTW: despite grumblings about its crackdown, Netflix reportedly saw a lift in paying subs.

Costco comes for membership sharers as the subscription squeeze intensifies

Pickleball injuries may result in up to $500M in added healthcare costs this year