__Just as the pandemic was waning...__ Russia invaded a sovereign nation, launching a war that’s plunged Europe into one of its [darkest](https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1559645/europe-in-darkest-hours-since-world-war-ii) moments since WWII. After Russia began invading neighboring Ukraine, Western leaders have been piling on harsher sanctions to punish Russian President Putin.

__The crisis is rattling the world...__ and markets. The global economy is so interconnected that turmoil in one area can shake the entire financial system. Stocks have been falling all year as investors stress over inflation and coming interest-rate hikes. The conflict is weighing on what’s already hurting markets. How different markets have been impacted:

- __Stocks:__ US stocks dropped immediately after Russia's invasion on Thursday, but rebounded for the week on expectations that the Fed could go easier on rate hikes (because: global turmoil). Few US companies have operations in Russia or Ukraine, so they’re more shielded. Meanwhile, Russian stocks have lost half their value.
- __Bonds:__ US Treasury bonds spiked as investors sold more volatile assets like stocks and moved into “safe haven” investments like gov’t debt, which the US has always repaid. 
- __Commodities:__ Oil and wheat prices soared on concerns of reduced supply from Russia — the world's largest exporter of wheat, and a top three exporter of oil and natural gas. Meanwhile, gold prices are rising as investors seek more stability.
- __Paper currency:__ The USD is appreciating as investors seek security in the world’s reserve currency, which has a stable rep, while Russia’s currency has tanked.
- __Crypto:__ Some believe __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ can act like digital gold — a “safe haven” decentralized currency to retreat to during conflicts. But BTC is down 30% over the past three months. 

In Rome, a torchlight procession for peace in Ukraine (Pacific Press via Getty Images)

Crisis

__In uncertain times, investors crave security…__ That’s why during times of political turmoil, some investors retreat into "safe haven” assets like T-bonds, gold, cash, and even "defensive stocks,” which tend to be less affected by volatility (think: utilities and consumer staples). Diversifying across investment types can help hedge risk, but doesn’t mean losses won’t occur. No one can predict what’ll happen, but historically the US market has bounced back from geopolitical conflicts over time. 

As investors worry about Russia’s war on Ukraine, we’re unpacking how geopolitical turmoil can affect different assets

__The state of the union is...__ anxious. President Biden is set to deliver his first SOTU address Tuesday, at a critical moment when his approval ratings have plunged. While he may talk about the war in Ukraine and his domestic successes (think: $1T [infrastructure](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/535eiAczcIj1qvPlNpbVcf/articles/3oxNV4QbHcdtoFaZVgY1sz/) bill, vaccination rate), inflation is what’s top of mind for many Americans. Biden will likely underscore the strong labor market — a record 6.6M jobs were added since he took office — while acknowledging that high prices are hurting wallets. FYI: We'll get an update on the employment picture with Friday’s jobs report.

__Speed bump...__ Plans to electrify US delivery fleets are stuck in first gear. Last week __USPS__ said it would buy $6B of mostly gas-guzzling mail trucks, ignoring the White House’s call for it to go electric. In the private sector, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__, and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__ have set goals to go all EV by 2040, but the transition has been wobbly (blame supply constraints). Amazon ordered 100K electric vans from __[Rivian](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RIVN)__, but their ETA has been delayed to 2030. FedEx also plans to buy 100% EVs, but not until 2030.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching…

__The snowball effect...__ The cloud biz that helped __Pizza Hut__ predict Super Bowl ’za orders is on fire: shares of __[Snowflake](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNOW)__ have doubled since its [record](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/20h2lIyDiEHNUxZmIBTfPu/articles/3sU0d3u3Bv3EujmS6dVQ7U/)-breaking 2020 IPO on huge demand for cloud storage, and 40% of Fortune 500 companies now [use](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/snowflake-snow-stock-buy-now/) its software. But Snow shares have thawed 30% from highs on the wider tech selloff, plus competition from upstarts like __DataBricks__. Snow has yet to turn a profit, but expects annual sales to 18X by 2029. Amazon’s AWS cloud sales soared last quarter. We’ll see if Snowflake follows suit when it reports Wednesday.

__One (brand) fits all...__ __[Victoria's Secret](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VSCO)__ has been facing an identity crisis, from C-Suite [harassment](https://www.newsweek.com/victorias-secrets-lingerie-giant-past-controversies-1601496) allegations to changing views of what "sexy" means. Last week the lingerie brand debuted its first-ever model with Down syndrome, part of a series of inclusive campaigns aimed at revamping its image. It seems to be making a difference: last quarter its in-store sales [jumped](https://wwd.com/fashion-news/intimates/victorias-secret-earnings-100-supply-chain-distruptions-1234998185/) 22%, to $920M, but it warned that supply delays would cost it $100M. We'll see if VS’s inclusivity push can restore sales to pre-pandemic highs when it reports Thursday.

Events

Coming up this week…

- __[Equity](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1CH8xdDasx6jEeeUXUwNeS/articles/1Ce60Aclf9kslaeFuVdd8U/):__ There were a record 20 Black CFOs at S&P 500 companies last year, but more than 90% of the top 50 most valuable public companies don’t have any Black C-suite execs. Many firms still have a pipeline problem that’s limiting C-suite diversity.
- __[Hack](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1CH8xdDasx6jEeeUXUwNeS/articles/2RWxZW3i3ZY5AK2hAhEi2b/):__ After global leaders sanctioned Russia for invading Ukraine, shares of cybersecurity giants __[Palo Alto Networks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PANW)__, __[CrowdStrike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRWD)__, __[Fortinet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FTNT)__, and __[Mandiant](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MNDT)__ spiked on fears of a cyberwar.
- __[Tuneware](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aFNNo1cLzMdtzoAVyyeFI/articles/4BJLnkiuQ9iY6Cib0jgljw/):__ __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ launched its first physical product, the Car Thing music player for the dash of your ’97 Nissan. Meanwhile, Kanye debuted his new album on a $200 device (that looks like a smoke alarm).

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

How Russia's war with Ukraine is impacting global markets, from bonds to crypto

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Ketanji Brown Jackson was nominated to be the first Black woman to sit on the Supreme Court

🛢️ How Russia’s war with Ukraine is impacting global markets

__Modern warfare isn’t confined to the battlefield…__ Ukrainian banks’ and government websites were [hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/23/cyberattack-hits-ukrainian-banks-and-government-websites.html) with cyberattacks this week ahead of Russia’s deadly invasion. Since the US and its allies [imposed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aFNNo1cLzMdtzoAVyyeFI/) sanctions on Moscow, Western officials have been on high alert for Russian cyber-retaliation. Shares of cybersecurity companies have spiked:

- Network-security stocks __[Palo Alto Networks](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PANW)__, __[CrowdStrike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRWD)__, __[Fortinet](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FTNT)__, and __[Mandiant](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MNDT)__ all surged at least 10% yesterday, and cybersecurity ETFs also jumped.

__It’s scary out there…__ Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cybersecurity industry had been seeing a flood of investment: VC-backed security companies have [raised](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/cybersecurity-russian-ukraine-crowdstrike-securonix-bluevoyant/) $2.6B so far *this month*, about 4X more than the same period last year. 

- __Cybercrime is a growing biz:__ the number of cyberattacks [increased](https://www.thestreet.com/markets/palo-alto-networks-stock-leaps-as-cyber-attack-surge-lifts-outlook) 70% last year, and data breaches cost US companies a record $4.2M on average. The global [cost](https://www.ibm.com/security/data-breach) of hacks topped $6T last year and is forecast to hit $10.5T by 2025. 
- __Russia’s already a big player:__ Cybercrime analysts [say](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60378009) nearly 75% of money stolen via ransomware attacks last year went to Russia-linked cybercriminals. In recent years, logistics giants __[FedEx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FDX)__ and __[Maersk](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMKBY)__ have also been targeted by Russian hackers.

Hack

__A new era of state-sponsored cybercrime is dawning…__ Russia was responsible for an [estimated](https://fortune.com/2021/10/07/microsoft-russia-is-behind-58-percent-of-detected-state-sponsored-hacks-cybersecurity/) 60% of state-sponsored cybercrime detected by Microsoft last year, and now the FBI is [warning](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/22/politics/russia-sanctions-fbi-cyber-threats-ransomware/index.html) US banks and businesses to watch out for Russian ransomware attacks. Biden has asked American tech giants like __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ to help beef up cybersecurity, but has struggled to boost the national cybersecurity budget since his Build Back Better bill [stalled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6j2M9rRr7dWfX9iVqkya8A/) in Congress.

Cybersecurity stocks surge as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights the risks of cyberwar

__A seat at the table…__ Despite a national reckoning on race and equity, corporate America has been slow to diversify its C-suites. The tide’s *slowly* turning: last [year](https://www.wsj.com/articles/racially-diverse-cfos-are-in-high-demand-but-challenges-persist-11621942201?mod=article_inline) there were a record 20 Black chief financial officers at S&P 500 companies. But there are still only four Black CEOs in the Fortune 500, and more than 90% of the 50 most valuable public companies in the US don't have any black C-suite execs, including __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, __[Costco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COST)__, and __[T-Mobile](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TMUS)__. 

__Self-fulfilling prophecy…__ Last year, [over](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/s-p-500-opens-up-on-diversity-after-floyd-as-investors-seek-more) 400 S&P companies used the words “diversity,” “equity,” or “inclusion” in their annual [filings](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/s-p-500-opens-up-on-diversity-after-floyd-as-investors-seek-more). But creating racial equality in the upper ranks of a workforce is about more than quota-filling and good PR. Board members make some of the most critical decisions in any big company. And they’re traditionally responsible for picking their successors, who have been primarily white men.

- __Bottom up:__ Last year, Black workers [made](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/diversity-and-inclusion/race-in-the-workplace-the-black-experience-in-the-us-private-sector) up 12% of entry-level employees in the private sector, and only 7% of managers. 
- __Singled out:__ Corporate [hiring](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kwamechristian/2022/02/07/in-support-of-black-leadership-tips-for-building-confidence--success/?sh=1021b5076e2e) bias and concerns about being the only employee of color on an all-white leadership team can make it hard for Black candidates to gain the experience needed to advance.

__It’s a matter of principle *and* money…__ when it comes to fostering diversity in the boardroom. One [study](https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/corporate-board-diversity-stock-price) found that publicly traded companies with more people of color on their boards saw nearly 2% higher stock returns than those who didn’t. Companies have to invest in a diverse talent pipeline, especially in early career, to break the cycle. Now, historically Black colleges and universities are stepping in: __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__ has [pledged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/goldman-sachs-pledges-25-million-to-historically-black-colleges) $25M to give HBCU students the opportunity to train and network within the company and gain access into the finance biz.

America’s boardrooms are getting more diverse, but inequity in hiring pipelines and promotions makes rising through the ranks difficult

Cybersecurity stocks surge as Russia’s attack on Ukraine spurs cyberwar fears

Big mood: Netflix trivia night [The Good Brigade/Getty Images]

[Adam Berry/Stringer via GettyImages]

Kyiv's subway stations, among the world’s deepest, were completed during the Cold War to double as bomb shelters in the event of enemy attack. Ukrainians are now using them for that very purpose.

💾 Russia stokes cyberwar fears

__Refresh for updates...__ Days after Russia sent troops into Moscow-backed regions of Ukraine, the US has been upping its response by adding to targeted financial sanctions. Yesterday the US [slapped](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-plans-sanctions-company-building-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-cnn-2022-02-23/) sanctions on the company building Russia’s $11B Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which spans from Russia to Germany after Germany [halted](https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-hails-germanys-decision-to-halt-certification-of-nord-stream-2-pipeline-to-punish-russia-001744081.html) its opening.

- __Punishment:__ Western leaders are using the pipeline as leverage against Russia, since oil exports = 30% of Russia's economy.
- __Risk:__ Russia supplies more than a third of the EU’s natural gas, and could retaliate by shutting off some of those fuel exports.
- __Next:__ More sanctions seem likely. Late last night, President Biden [said](https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1496716484906819589) the US and its allies "will be imposing severe sanctions" on Russia, and will continue to provide support to Ukraine.

__Companies are nervous...__ Most Western corporations don't have operations in Russia and Ukraine. But large multinationals that *do* are [bracing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-crisis-has-big-western-businesses-girding-for-fallout-from-sanctions-11645619447?mod=business_lead_pos1) for further sanctions, which Western leaders could leverage:

- __Oil:__ __[BP](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BP)__, __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__, and __[Shell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHEL)__ all have significant investments in Russia that could be threatened by sanctions on Russia’s energy market. 
- __Banks:__ __[Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__ and __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__, which do business in Russia, would have to cut ties with local lenders if broad financial sanctions happen. Cross-border payments could be frozen, which might mean lost $$$. 
- __Cars:__ Dodge and Jeep parent __[Stellantis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STLA)__ says it would limit production in Russia if sanctions disrupt its operations. 
- __Beer:__ Danish brewer __[Carlsberg](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CABGY)__ is Ukraine’s biggest beer seller, while Russia accounts for 10% of its sales. It has breweries in both countries and said it’s working on contingency plans in case sanctions disrupt beer-making.

Sanctioned

__Sanctions could hit consumers hardest…__ especially Europeans. Western companies were relatively unaffected by Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. American and EU officials say sanctions will be harsher this time, and  consumers could feel that at the pump. As the world’s #2 exporter of natural gas and #3 exporter of oil, Russia can cut supply at a time when prices are already sky high. Americans, who are [facing](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-drivers-brace-for-the-highest-prices-in-9-years-as-oil-approaches-100-a-barrel-11645558796) for the highest gas prices since 2013, could experience even more pump anxiety if global supply shrinks. 

Companies brace for impact from Russia sanctions, but consumers could get hit hardest

__Yeezy taught me…__ Kanye West isn't afraid to be vocal, whether it’s about his [personal](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ellendurney/kanye-west-new-lyrics-about-kim-kardashian-pete-davidson) life or his moves to take on an "oppressive" music industry. The artist now known by “‘Ye’” live-streamed a “Donda Experience” event on Tuesday to [promote](https://variety.com/2022/music/news/kanye-wests-donda-2-event-playboi-carti-marilyn-manson-jack-harlow-1235188231/) his new “Donda 2” album. Ye’s making the record available exclusively on a physical $200 “Stem Player” device (think: a new-age iPod that [looks](https://www.stemplayer.com/) like a smoke detector). Why: Ye wants to bypass streaming platforms like __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__, __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__, and YouTube. Kanye also tried to skip those streamers with his launch event:

- __Ye originally said__ the event would stream only at __[IMAX](https://robinhood.com/stocks/IMAX)__ theaters, and [later](https://www.wsj.com/articles/kanye-west-says-donda-2-album-will-be-released-only-on-200-stem-player-device-11645221043) only on the Stem site. But ultimately it streamed free on YouTube and Amazon’s Twitch (awk).
- __The original Donda__ set a streaming record for Apple Music last year when it got 60M streams on day #1. Kanye [says](https://www.macworld.co.uk/news/kanye-west-turned-down-apple-music-3813653/#:~:text=In%20a%20series%20of%20Instagram,through%20his%20own%20Stem%20Player.) he turned down $100M from Apple for “Donda 2.” 

__The revolution will be streamed…__ but it’s less certain  *where*. Many musicians have criticized streaming platforms for their payout structures: artists reportedly earn only about 10% of streaming revenue, so they have to hit *1M* streams just to pocket $5K on Spotify, Apple, or Amazon. Several stars have attempted to ditch major platforms in a push to better control their earnings:

- __Beyoncé__ made her breakthrough 2016 album “Lemonade” exclusive to __Tidal__, a platform formerly co-owned by her husband, Jay-Z, and his frenemy Kanye. But Tidal never caught on, and last year __[Square](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQ)__ bought it.
- Taylor Swift has shunned both Apple Music and Spotify at various times, and [re-recorded](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1e3lwXtO6b6giHg2TXcAGO/articles/799g3A4a08tsjHQiwWNyi9/) her “Red” album to claim streaming bucks back from labels.

This new Kanye album is fire [Photodisc via Getty Images]

__Habit platforms are sticky…__ It’s one thing to fight streamer payouts, but another to fight listener habits. Taylor, Kanye, and Beyoncé can afford to ditch Spotify or Apple *temporarily* to fight for better terms. But they’ve all returned to where the ears and playlists are: Spotify and Apple have a [combined](https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/20/22892939/music-streaming-services-market-share-q2-2021-spotify-apple-amazon-tencent-youtube#:~:text=Spotify%20was%20the%20largest%20music,third%20with%2013%20percent%20apiece.) global market share of more than 50%, but they’re not invincible. Example: Spotify shares [fell](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/spotify-2-billion-market-cap-neil-young-joe-rogan-1235166798/) 6% in the days after Neil Young jumped ship in protest of Joe Rogan’s vax misinfo, and they still haven’t recovered.

Kanye goes direct to consumer with his new album, as artists’ streaming frustration grows

(Photo by Omer Messinger/Getty Images)

The US is the world’s largest plastic polluter, contributing 278 pounds of plastic per person each year

🇺🇦 The impact of Russia sanctions

__Stocks are down — what's new?...__ ICYMI: stocks have been falling all year as investors [worry](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2MVH2KDOTUkUCH5cozGBos/articles/5FbD7KaOehttkedpLIaG0m/) about inflation and the Fed’s coming interest-rate hikes. This month, there's a new concern: Russia's increasing aggression toward Ukraine. Refresher:

- __1991:__ Ukraine gained independence from Russia when the Soviet Union fell, but Russia has never fully pulled back its influence there ([see](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-crisis-in-Crimea-and-eastern-Ukraine): 2014 annexation of Crimea).
- __Late January:__ Russia stationed 100K+ troops near its border with Ukraine, fueling invasion fears among Western leaders.
- __Monday:__ Russian President Putin [recognized](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/europe/russia-ukraine-tensions-monday-intl/index.html) the independence of two separatist regions in Ukraine (see: [this brutal exchange](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60485967)) and ordered Russian troops to enter. 
- __Yesterday:__ President Biden said he viewed Russia's move into Ukraine as the beginning of an invasion, and [announced](https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-calls-russian-moves-an-invasion-after-initially-refraining-from-using-term-11645549648) the first wave of new US sanctions to cut off Russia from Western financing. Earlier, the EU agreed to ban the purchase of Russian government bonds.
- __Also yesterday:__ Germany halted the [key](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6oUasks4UHzb87QXAq6Z3b/articles/42MsC1pWn5GL5HyZpMd1Sx/) Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which carries gas from Russia to Germany (oil exports = 30% of Russia's economy).

__The short-term effect on stocks...__ The S&P 500 index is down 5% for the month, as Russia-Ukraine tensions add to what’s already hurting markets:

- __Uncertainty:__ While some uncertainty is always a given, high turmoil is usually bad for markets. Investors tend to retreat to "safe-haven assets" like government bonds, gold, and even "defensive stocks" like healthcare and utilities, which tend to be less affected by volatility.
- __Inflation:__ Sanctions on Russia could cause prices of oil, food, and other commodities to soar *even more*. Russia supplies more than a third of the EU’s natural gas, while Russia and Ukraine produce much of the world’s wheat and corn. 

Alexey Nikolsky / Getty Images

Tense

__How could markets react long term?…__ We can’t predict the future, but historically the US market has bounced back from conflicts over time. Since 1941 the total fall in the stock market after major geopolitical events was, on average, [5%](https://lplresearch.com/2020/01/08/how-stocks-do-during-geopolitical-events/) — with a couple months to eventually recover. Of course, even if the market recovers, individual stocks might not. That’s one reason some investors diversify to help hedge risk.

How the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect markets — short and long term

__Blasting “Good 4 U” in your ’97 Civic…__ __[Spotify’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ Car Thing is now a real thing. Its first physical product — it’s literally called *Car Thing* — [went](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/22/22945403/spotify-car-thing-price-release-date) on sale in the US yesterday after a limited release last April, when 2M people joined the waitlist. The $90 dash-mounted gadget is meant for cars without infotainment screens, and lets drivers control their Spotify tunes via touchscreen or voice control: It works only with Spotify Premium and requires a smartphone with Bluetooth or an aux cord. 

__Hard(ware) right turn…__ Spotify has twice as many listeners as its closest streaming rival (__[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__). Now it joins a long list of tech companies that’ve attempted to make the jump from software to hardware. Those efforts have had mixed results:

- __Hail Mary hardware projects__ like __[Microsoft’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ Zune MP3 player and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ Glass AR glasses were discontinued after falling flat with consumers. 
- __But connected gadgets__ like __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ Kindle and Google’s Home Speakers succeeded by offering simple integrations with their parent companies’ other products and services.

Blasting Billie Eilish on the Car Thing [Jose Luis Pelaez Inc. / Digital Vision via Getty Images]

Thingy

__Not all products are designed to be huge sellers…__ Since most new cars come with either Apple’s CarPlay or Google’s Android Auto preinstalled, Spotify is launching a product into a market that’s shrinking, not expanding. And it knows that. Car Thing isn’t meant to create long-term revenue — it’s meant to build loyalty and encourage *more* Premium listening at home, at work, and on the road *now*. Looking ahead, Spotify [says](https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/features/spotifys-car-thing-is-about-to-face-the-music/) it's focused on audio, not hardware. Its execs have even [described](https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/features/spotifys-car-thing-is-about-to-face-the-music/) Car Thing as a “means to an end.”

Spotify rolls out its first physical product for your car — but don’t call it a hardware biz

The Beijing Winter Games had the worst TV ratings in Olympic history — but the largest streaming audience ever

🇺🇦 What Russia’s invasion could mean for markets

__Feels so normal, it's abnormal...__ walking to the restaurant bathroom unmasked. We thought "back to normal" was happening this winter, until Omicron. But now that cases have waned and proved less severe, a national reopening mania has started... for real. Anticipation is growing:

- __Restrictions are falling__ daily. Half of US states have [ditched](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mask-mandate-map-february-2022-n1289093) mask mandates over the past month, and even the CDC wants to give people [a break](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/cdc-wants-to-give-people-a-break-from-wearing-masks-as-pandemic-improves-director-says.html). Lots of Super Bowl fans were unmasked at a sold-out stadium, and Coachella and Stagecoach say they won’t have Covid-related restrictions when their festivals return in April.
- __Spending is up.__ January saw the strongest monthly gain in retail sales since March 2020, when the first stimulus checks hit. Retail sales were up 4% from December.
- __Travel is rebounding,__ and __[Marriott](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__, __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__, and __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ [expect](https://www.reuters.com/business/marriott-airbnb-others-see-global-travel-rebounding-2022-2022-02-16/) global travel to surpass pre-Covid levels this year.

__But there's a dark cloud...__ over reopening. Consumer prices were up 7.5% in January from a year earlier, the fastest increase in 40 years. While retail sales jumped, it’s [partly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-january-2022-retail-sales-11644963650?mod=business_lead_pos11) due to *higher prices* — not more purchases. Wages are rising, but pay bumps [haven't](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/inflation-eroded-pay-by-1point7percent-over-the-past-year.html) kept up with inflation.

- __Consumers are feeling it —__ especially low-income Americans. Food prices are up 7% from a year ago, and gas is up *40%*. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, the consumer bellwether, [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/17/walmart-cfo-brett-biggs-says-customers-are-paying-attention-to-rising-prices.html) shoppers are on edge about grocery bills. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is at a decade [low](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-more-than-10-year-low-february-survey-2022-02-11/).
- __Companies are passing on rising costs__ to consumers, as inflation starts to dent profits. Still: Profit at the 500 largest companies were up 50% last year as consumers [proved willing](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/profits-for-sp-500-companies-rose-22percent-in-the-fourth-quarter-and-nearly-50percent-in-2021-estimates-show.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmarkets&stream=business#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20operating%20margins%20have,were%20able%20to%20raise%20prices) to pay more. __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__, __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__, and __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG)__ reported [strong sales](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/walmarts-earnings-may-signal-if-shoppers-getting-spooked-by-inflation.html) despite upping prices.

What do you mean “no vax card required”? [SolStock/E+ via Getty Images]

Endgame

__Prices are spoiling the party…__ Literally: booze giant __[Constellation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STZ)__ [wants](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478331-constellation-brands-stz-ceo-william-newlands-on-q3-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript) to raise prices as much as buyers can absorb. But there’s medicine in sight. Last summer, the Fed wasn’t expected to raise rates until next year. Now at least three hikes are expected *this* year. Rising rates could hurt stocks and spending short term, but help consumers and the economy long term by curbing inflation.

"Reopening mania" is building, but there's a dark cloud over it — and your wallet feels it

__House of Gucci...__ Lux brands took a hit when lockdowns curbed the need for Balenciaga sneaks and Prada bucket hats. Last year, Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent owner __Kering__ had a record $20B comeback. Gucci sales jumped 30% last quarter thanks to big marketing and huge China demand. Luxe giants like Kering and __[LVMH](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LVMUY)__ are well positioned as prices rise: their customers are less price sensitive, and higher prices = #exclusivity. Now lux brands are looking to the metaverse. Last year, a Gucci digi-purse sold on __[Roblox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBLX)__ for nearly 20% more than the leather version.

__[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL) searched...__ its soul. Digital ad giants are nervous. Last week Google said it would [stop](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/google-plans-android-privacy-change-similar-to-apples.html) advertisers from tracking Android users, after __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ made a similar [move](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/13/apples-privacy-changes-show-the-power-it-holds-over-other-industries.html#:~:text=Apple's%20ad%20privacy%20change%20impact%20shows%20the%20power%20it%20wields%20over%20other%20industries&text=In%20April%2C%20Apple%20released%20an,from%20using%20a%20device%20ID.&text=While%20the%20changes%20have%20been,re%20also%20benefitting%20Apple's%20advertising.) last year. Since Android phones make up 70% of global smartphones, the change could cut into sales at __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__, __[Pinterest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PINS)__, and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__. This year Meta [expects](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/technology/apple-privacy-changes-meta.html) to lose $10B in ad revenue from Apple’s update, and its stock has fallen 45% from its September peak. Meta has told investors to stay tuned for its meta investments, but they may take a while to offset slowing ad sales.

__Extreme makeover, pro edition…__ Home-improvement chains saw monster sales during the pandemic as we spent weekends building __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__-worthy home offices. Now the experts are taking over. __[Home Depot's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__ pro biz (think: drywall, drill [rentals](https://www.homedepot.com/c/tool_and_truck_rental)) has topped DIY as homeowners outsource their paint jobs to contractors (who spend more $$ than DIYers). Last quarter, rival __[Lowe's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LOW)__ [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/lowes-low-q3-2021-earnings.html) its sales forecast, partially thanks to a 16% spike in pro sales. We’ll see if it can keep boosting the bottom line for Lowe’s and the Depot when they report this week.

__Market vax-uration…__ Biotech newcomer __[Moderna’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ looking for its next move. The company used its novel mRNA “platform” to quickly make a Covid vax, and [sold](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/moderna-cuts-2021-vaccine-sales-estimate-as-revenue-falls-short) an estimated $15B+ of jabs last year. But Moderna’s biz is vulnerable since it makes only one product, and sales growth is slowing as vax rates plateau. Shares are down 70% from their September peak, and now Moderna’s spending billions to boost production abroad and add potential blockbuster HIV and flu drugs to its pipeline. We’ll see how those investments are tracking when Moderna reports on Thursday.

Coming up this week...

- __[Chipper](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1WQENztNAu8UzlWhIRxGLw/articles/18EKyGD00qIzaSzibZqpiz/):__ Good news re: your back-ordered laptop. Last week __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ said it was buying Israeli chip maker __[Tower](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSEM)__ for $5.4B to boost production. Chip and EV giants have pledged billions to revamp US manufacturing.
- __[Ripe](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5LmNo4XqY94BEILxHeMVFj/articles/2nJt7ICl3XBGhemlAUlHzo/):__ Avocados are about to cost more green: avo prices are [rising](https://fortune.com/2022/02/16/avocado-crisis-chipotle-prices-skyrocket-mexico-president/) after the US banned imports from Mexico when a US food inspector was threatened amid cartel chaos. Mexico supplies 80% of the US’s avocados.
- __[Burbs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7soGkARtnuPgraycLIFyKn/):__ Auntie Anne’s for lunch: Sales at __[Simon Property Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPG)__, the largest mall owner in the US, have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. But retail in cities isn’t seeing the same rebound.

Last week's highlights...

"Reopening mania" is happening as mandates fall, but inflation is a dark cloud

[Ollie Millington / Getty Images]

There were no statues honoring Black people in the US until 1974

🏁 The Covid endgame, and Google’s ad trouble

__About 2,640,000,000 results…__ But they’re *all* sponsored. This week, search-engine blogger DKB [wrote](https://dkb.io/post/google-search-is-dying) a viral post claiming “__[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ Search Is Dying.” The argument: Google search results aren’t as relevant as they used to be because they’re cluttered with ads and SEO-optimized clickbait. But Google still dominates the [search](https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/) biz with 86% market share. 

- __Google has been the world’s largest search engine__ since 2000, two years after it was founded. And search is still its cash cow: ad revenues more than [doubled](https://www.statista.com/statistics/266249/advertising-revenue-of-google/) in the past four years, [boosting](https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-parent-alphabet-beats-revenue-estimates-online-ad-strength-2022-02-01/#:~:text=For%20the%202021%20full%20year,few%20weeks%20of%20the%20pandemic.) parent Alphabet to record sales last quarter.
- __But some users are ditching Google__ for more “authentic” results. Consider a search for “best vacuum”: Google gives you a half-dozen [ads](https://www.google.com/search?q=best+vacuum&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS959US960&ei=Yp4OYoTuObqzytMP_8y7wAE&ved=0ahUKEwiEp6WCuYf2AhW6mXIEHX_mDhgQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=best+vacuum&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIICAAQgAQQsQMyBQgAEIAEMggIABCABBCxAzIICAAQgAQQsQMyCAgAEIAEELEDMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEOgcIABBHELADOgcIABCwAxBDOgoIABDkAhCwAxgAOhIILhDHARCjAhDIAxCwAxBDGAE6FQguEMcBEKMCENQCEMgDELADEEMYAToSCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQxgBOgUIABCRAkoECEEYAEoECEYYAVCDBViVDGDNDWgCcAF4AIABaIgB6gKSAQM1LjGYAQCgAQHIARPAAQHaAQYIABABGAnaAQYIARABGAg&sclient=gws-wiz) and 700-word blog posts, while __Reddit__ offers unvarnished [reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/VacuumCleaners/comments/sut3pr/sebo_k2_or_miele_c1/) from recent buyers on r/VacuumCleaners.

__Buried in the results…__ The search biz that made Alphabet huge could become a liability if users can’t easily find what they’re looking for, or don’t trust the results. And as Alphabet spent (and [lost](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/google-cloud-lost-5point61-billion-on-13point06-billion-revenue-last-year.html)) billions on Google Cloud and Waymo over the past few years, its core search biz has run into obstacles:

- __Growing competition__ from __[Microsoft’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ Bing, China’s __[Baidu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIDU)__, and privacy-focused __DuckDuckGo__ has cut into Google’s search market share by 5% since 2018.
- __Global regulators__ have also launched several antitrust lawsuits against Google, [accusing](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/class-action-lawsuit-filed-in-california-alleging-google-is-paying-apple-to-stay-out-of-the-search-engine-business-301453098.html) it of favoring its products in shopping results.

When every search result is sponsored [sturti/E+ via Getty Images]

Results

__The search industry may be splintering…__ And Alphabet’s mountain of lawsuits could cut into its huge ad sales and give competitors a chance to take a slice of Google’s search share. There’s a reason people use “Google” as a verb. But as the internet becomes more decentralized, thanks to the rise of blockchain-backed communities, users could gravitate to new search options that reduce ad clutter and give more helpful results. 

Is Google search getting worse? A viral post points to cracks in Alphabet’s search supremacy

__Parking by the food court just got tougher…__ Malls were hit hard during the pandemic as shoppers ditched fitting rooms for sweatpants. Lockdown measures forced a [record](https://fortune.com/2021/01/07/record-store-closings-bankruptcy-2020/) 12K+ US stores to close in 2020, as mall icons like __J. Crew__, __Neiman Marcus__, and __Brooks Brothers__ filed for [bankruptcy](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/26/the-10-biggest-retail-bankruptcies-of-2020.html). Now __[Simon Property Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPG)__, the country’s largest mall owner, is calling the comeback: 

- __IRL again:__ SPG's sales topped pre-pandemic levels for the first time last summer as pent-up consumer demand and extra savings [revived](https://retailbum.com/2021/retail/simon-property-group-mall-sales-are-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels/) IRL shopping.  
- __Burbs:__ Last year, Scottsdale's Fashion Square, one of Arizona’s biggest malls, saw a 16% jump in foot traffic [from](https://www.globest.com/2021/08/16/malls-have-hit-pre-pandemic-foot-traffic-levels/) 2019, while Houston’s popular Galleria saw a 7% spike.
- Commercial real-estate broker __[CBRE](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CBRE)__ [said](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-american-mall-could-comeback-220028935.html) the US retail market could see a decade-high number of new leases this year.

__Tale of two retails…__ While malls have been benefiting from the return to normal, urban retailers are still struggling. Shares of __[Vornado Realty](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VNO)__, which owns property in metro [areas](https://therealdeal.com/national/2022/02/15/urban-retail-not-recovering-like-malls-shopping-centers-vornado/) like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, are down 33% over the past two years. A couple reasons:

- __Tourist turbulence:__ The pandemic wiped $60B in tourism $$$ from NYC’s [economy](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/60-billion-and-89000-jobs-lost-the-crushing-impact-of-nyc-tourisms-collapse/3024166/). While international visitors — and their wallets — are [trickling](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/22/nyregion/new-york-tourism.html) back, the city expects that traffic to reach a fifth of pre-pandemic levels this year. 
- __Digi happy hours:__ Now that just [3%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/just-3-of-white-collar-workers-want-a-full-office-return) of office workers say they want to return in person full time, retailers that used to thrive on those visits are worried. (NYC’s new mayor is all but [begging](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/just-3-of-white-collar-workers-want-a-full-office-return) CEOs to bring their employees back.)

Scraper

__There’s a long road ahead…__ Brick-and-mortar retail — urban and suburban — still faces an existential threat from our shift to online shopping. Case in point: there’s 90M square feet, or 16 [Mall](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/malls-ditch-shopping-to-fill-wasteland-of-vacant-retail-stores) of Americas, worth of empty US storefronts. Vornado's CEO says that even though urban commercial rents may have bottomed, they’re unlikely to ever return to the "unbelievable highs" of the Before Times. Now cities like Denver are offering [businesses](https://www.businessinsider.com/denver-colorado-downtown-business-retail-apocalypse-popup-economic-development-stores-2022-2) rent-free space and up to $20K in sweeteners to open shop downtown.

As Americans start to shop in actual stores more, suburban malls are making a comeback — but big-city storefronts are lagging

A viral post points to cracks in Google’s search supremacy

[NurPhoto / Getty Images]

*Kabob, goober, and crawdad* are words most Americans know but many Brits don’t. Yet Brits know *gazump, tippex, and quango*, which Americans do not. 

🔎 Google’s search snafu

__Enjoy that avo toast while you can…__ A supply problem is coming for your guac, and it’s not because of a chip shortage. Over the weekend, the US banned all avocado imports from Mexico after an American food inspector in Mexico said they received a death threat. Why that affects shelves: Mexico supplies 80% of the US’s avocados. 

- __Toast:__ Avocados approved for export before this week will still be imported to the US, but any additional avocados will stay in Mexico "[until](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/15/mexican-avocado-import-ban/) further notice."
- Mexico’s president [criticized](https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-president-accuses-us-inventing-151735622.html) Biden’s avo ban, saying it’s an attempt to boost sales for American farmers. While California provides 15% of America’s avocados, its capacity is far from meeting demand. 

__Big-time avo crime…__ The average American consumes 8 pounds of avocados/year, adding $3B to the Mexican economy in the process. The green gold rush has caught the attention of Mexican cartels looking to diversify their income. For decades, they’ve accessed government databases to extort and kidnap avocado farmers. In 2019, US officials warned that any threats to American food inspectors [would](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/us-suspends-mexican-avocado-imports-on-eve-of-super-bowl.html) result in an avo-import ban. The consequences are spread out:

- __Companies:__ Avocados make up one-tenth of __[Chipotle's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMG)__ food costs. Now the fast-food chain says it has only a few weeks' worth left in stock.
- __Consumers:__ Avocado prices are already up 40% from last year thanks to inflation, and this ban could make them way pricier. 

[Anadolu Agency / Getty Images]

Ripe

__It’s not always about shortages…__ We’re used to blaming empty shelves on high demand, low supply, and clogged ports. But this avo drama is a reminder of how geopolitical tension carries business-stopping risks for the market and economy (see: Russia-Ukraine and Biden’s gas-pipeline threat). A ban on avocados could temporarily spike prices, but the payoff could be ensuring safe trade agreements between neighbors. For now, the US is underscoring that worker protections go hand in hand with doing business. 

Avocados are about to get even pricier, but this time it’s not about inflation — it’s about turf wars in Mexico

__Avatar all-hands meeting, stat...__ Five months ago: a little company known as Facebook rebranded as __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ to reflect its focus on building an immersive digital future (aka: the metaverse). Now Meta’s revamping its corporate values too. In a note to employees, Meta CEO Zuck [outlined](https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/facebooks-updated-values-include-meta-metamates-me/) the company's updated values, which were established in 2007. New things:

- __"Metamates"__ — sounds like Tinder for the metaverse, *actually* what Facebook employees will henceforth be known as. Also: News Feed is now "Feed" (less drama). 
- __"Live in the future"__ — one of Meta's new values, and also the opposite of what your meditation app tells you.
- __"Move fast"__ — and hopefully don't break things? Other values include “be direct and respect your colleagues.” 

__"Meta, Metamates, Me"...__ Meta's final value is a nod to the naval slogan "Ship, shipmate, self" (say that three times fast), which is also used by Insta employees. Zuck said it's about "being good stewards of our company and mission." Picture: avatar sailors navigating a ship into the Pacific dawn of the metaverse. Meta is investing billions into building the next social universe, but the journey may not be so pacific.

- __Meta has faced heat__ from regulators, politicians, and the public over failing to protect user privacy and combat hate speech and misinfo.
- __Meta’s social networks —__ particularly Instagram — have been [scrutinized](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039) for the psychological harm they cause teens.

Meet your Metamate [RichVintage/E+ via Getty Images]

Mate

__Culture rebrands only go so far…__ a new set of values could help Meta retain demoralized employees (#Metamates) during the Great Resignation, when many are quitting jobs for greener pastures. But employees are reportedly already [questioning](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/technology/facebook-meta-change.html) whether Meta should be focused on building new products without fixing its *existing* problems — which are likely to be amplified in the metaverse. Meanwhile, Meta’s [slowing growth](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6As9U5PUBzvDKmuDeCPCxK/articles/2KGgx4q5eCK1xFQBgb2QMp/) and ad dependence show that, makeover aside, it’s still Facebook.

​​Meta revamps its company values for “Metamates,” but still faces the same Facebook problems

Avocado prices are rising — but this time it’s a trade crisis, not inflation

Today is Michael Jordan’s 59th birthday: on top of being a six-time NBA champ, MJ’s one of the world’s 15 Black billionaires

🥑 The looming avo crisis

__Cashing in all the chips…__ As demand for semiconductor chips used in everything from __[Teslas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ to PlayStations has boomed amid pandemic [shortages](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/31E6cwe7ndD6pM602Hiv9R/articles/3Nn6tVCu3oGQg2XsCbQmyc/), sales and profits rose for chipmakers like __[AMD](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMD)__, __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__, and __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ despite those supply bottlenecks. This week Intel [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/intel-expands-in-specialty-chipmaking-with-5point4-billion-deal-for-israels-tower-semiconductor.html) it’s buying Israeli chip maker __[Tower](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSEM)__ for $5.4B in cash to expand its specialized chip-making capacity. 

- __Intel is the world’s biggest__ semiconductor company by sales, but it outsources much of its actual manufacturing to Taiwan-based __[TSMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSM)__, which makes more than *half* of global chips. 
- __This Tower deal is a small part__ of Intel’s push to increase its manufacturing muscle at home and abroad. 

__The American Chip-aissance…__ The Great Chip Shortage [exposed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/31E6cwe7ndD6pM602Hiv9R/articles/3Nn6tVCu3oGQg2XsCbQmyc/) how much US companies rely on foreign chip makers and pushed Intel into a spending spree to better compete with Asian manufacturers. Intel’s spending $20B on [two plants](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/intel-is-spending-20-billion-to-build-two-new-chip-plants-in-arizona.html) in Arizona and possibly up to $100B on a [new factory](https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2022/01/21/intel-to-invest-20-billion-build-two-semiconduct.html) in Ohio that could become the world’s largest. Intel’s money moves are among several of its recent investments in US manufacturing:

- __Automakers from [GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM) to [Lucid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LCID)__ plan to [spend](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ev-battery-makers-target-24-billion-southern-us-plants-2021-10-08/) $24B building EV and battery factories in the US. Since 2021 companies have announced plans to invest a total of $200B in American plants. 
- __Manufacturing__ has accounted for a steady amount of US GDP since the 1940s, but has been declining for decades. The US lost its title as the world’s biggest manufacturer in 2010… to China.

[SOPA Images / Getty Images]

Chipper

__Tiny chips are key to Biden’s big China plans…__ The president [used](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-rebuilding-our-manufacturing-to-make-more-in-america/) Intel’s Ohio investment to drum up support for his China competition bill, which passed in the House two weeks ago after getting Senate approval in June. The America Competes Act is designed to bulk up the US’s manufacturing sector: it [includes](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/04/1078226282/u-s-house-passes-china-competition-bill) $52B for chip-making factories, $45B for supply-chain improvements, and $160B for R&D. In the next few weeks, Congress is expected to finalize a version of the bill.

Intel buys Israeli chipmaker for $5.4B as US manufacturers go on a spending spree to compete with China

__"Sponsored by [Squarespace](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQSP)"...__ said every pod ever. Squarespace has helped 4M+ non-coders design sleek websites with ready-made templates and easy-to-use features. Think: sites for personal trainers, cooking blogs, online shops, and Zendaya's fake seashell company ([Super Bowl ad](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0rl8j5631Q)). Americans are starting more businesses as the WFH life and the Great Resignation inspire entrepreneurship.

- __Applications for new businesses__ were up [53%](https://www.axios.com/small-business-boom-covid-recession-pandemic-22862f00-3cdc-4550-ba6f-92aee7d3c91a.html) last year from pre-pandemic levels. That means new biz sites created with Squarespace, __[Wix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WIX)__, __[GoDaddy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDDY)__, and others. 
- __Squarespace IPO’d in May__ after [raising](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1pA68KIKChD9WMr3DJ2OMP/articles/5Eln4YB0Z24G9ggQxfcejk/) $300M at a $10B valuation. Now it's worth less than half that, but the stock is up 12% this year while the techy Nasdaq is down 11%. 
- __Squarespace brought in $576M__ in revenue from January through September (the first time it revealed #s) — but it *lost* $241M. Must've been all that pod spend…

__“There aren’t enough pods”...__ said only Squarespace. Six years after Squarespace launched in 2003, the biz was losing $$$. Then, founder Anthony Casalena [splurged](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/business/how-did-squarespace-know-podcasts-would-get-this-big.html?referringSource=articleShare) on a big bet: a $20K ad on a tech pod. The result: a third of Squarespace's new subs came from that ad. After that, Squarespace went all in on pods, seeing huge growth from promos. By 2015, Squarespace was the biggest pod advertiser, buying 2.5X as many ads as its next competitor and indulged in 400+ pods/month, from niche shows to big names like Joe Rogan.

When you’ve memorized all the Squarespace ads [Emilija Manevska/Moment via Getty Images]

Podspace

__Trust leads to conversion…__ And conversion has never been more important for Squarespace. Pod fans spend *hours/day* listening to their fave hosts — that’s loyalty. When pod hosts ad-libbed Squarespace spots with tailored promo codes, conversion was huge. When Rogan did it, the return was “[almost unbelievable](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/business/how-did-squarespace-know-podcasts-would-get-this-big.html?referringSource=articleShare).” Ads placed on __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ saw only a fraction of the returns. Plus, Squarespace users aren’t likely to go elsewhere after paying an annual fee and building sites.

Website builder Squarespace cashes in on the side-hustle boom by dominating your earbuds

Intel buys Tower for $5.4B, part of a spending spree to compete with China

DJ Steve Aoki says he made more money last year on NFTs than he made in the past decade from music royalties

🏭 Intel’s chip-quisition 

__A new chapter for [Snapchat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)…__ Snap has had a wild start to the year: its shares plummeted 24% in a single day after __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ disastrous [earnings](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/business/dealbook/meta-zuckerberg-stock.html) earlier this month, before spiking 60% the next day after reporting its first profitable [quarter](https://www.zdnet.com/article/snap-makes-a-cash-profit-for-the-first-time-ever-but-shares-sell-off/). This week Snap [introduced](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/14/22927656/snapchat-snap-stars-stories-ads) a feature that gives creators a slice of ad revenue — something YouTube and Instagram have been doing for years. The deets:

- __Snap is dropping ads__ in the middle of Stories (videos that disappear after 24 hours) and giving creators a cut of the revenue. For now the feature’s available only to verified influencers (Snap calls them “[stars](https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/article/snap-stars)”), but it will soon roll out widely.
- __Previously stars could make $$$__ by receiving tips from fans, teaming up with brands, or winning prizes from the little ghost. 

__Cash for content…__ As new users become harder to find — Meta (fka FB) just saw its first drop in daily users — social platforms are focusing less on growth and more on creators who bring their followings with them. Last year Snap doled out $1M *a day* to top creators to promote its __TikTok__ competitor, Spotlight. Some creators made $1M in two months (Snap ended that promo but still pays out millions monthly). Other social companies have showered creators with cash:

- TikTok launched a $200M [creator fund](https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/introducing-the-200-million-tiktok-creator-fund) in 2020. The following year YouTube [started](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/youtubes-100-million-shorts-fund-to-challenge-tiktok-goes-live/) a $100M fund and Insta a $1B [fund](https://www.facebook.com/creators/investing-one-billion-in-the-creator-community). 

When the Snap ad checks hit [Issarawat Tattong via Getty Images]

Streak

__The Creator Cash Boom is just beginning…__ Now that creators are seen as crucial to social companies’ success, those companies are racing to build new monetization models to attract them. Beyond generic “creator funds,” Snap, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, TikTok, and Insta aim to help creators sell merch and attract sponsors. In January Insta and TikTok started [testing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aaB9GnrWgVHhjJd7bFJu/articles/2UWDolcoaAHhja6kAnJxsL/) paid subscriptions that let creators charge fans for access to exclusive content. As the $100B+ creator economy grows, we’ll likely see social apps get more creative with creator tools.

Snap offers influencers a share of ad revenue for the first time, as competition for creators intensifies

__"Lose Yourself"...__ still slaps. Millions tuned in Sunday to watch the LA Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals in a nail-biter. While the players battled it out on the field, some of the biggest brands fought for our attention during time-outs. This year’s commercial themes shifted from the pandemic and politics to the *future*: 

- __Crypto’s debut:__ __[Coinbase's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__ 60-second spot featured a bouncing QR code and $15 __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ sign-up bonus, which the company claimed drove 20M+ visitors to its site before it crashed (while the app jumped from #138 to #2 on the App Store overnight). Meanwhile, __FTX__ and __Crypto.com__ tapped Larry David and LeBron to star in their commercials.
- EVs go mainstream: __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ brought back Dr. Evil and Meadow Soprano to promo its new EV fleet, which includes models from its Hummer, Cadillac, BrightDrop, and Chevy brands (FYI: only two are actually [available](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/14/22933092/super-bowl-electric-car-ad-commercials-evs-available) to buy.) Bowl stalwart __Kia__ and __[Volvo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VLVLY)__-owned Polestar joined the electrified action too.

__Free bitcoin during the bathroom break…__ the Super Bowl is one of the few places left to reach 100M+ consumers at once, and brands are paying more every year for that opportunity. The price tag for a 30-second commercial has jumped 3X since 2000, hitting a record $7M this year. Bowl spots are a chance for newer companies like Coinbase to introduce themselves to a wider demo, while legacy brands like Chevy can show they aren't just making your dad’s pickup truck. 

Wings

__Commercials aren’t the only option...__ OG Bowl advertisers like __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ and __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ ditched commercials altogether and were still among the most-viewed brands thanks to sponsorship deals (think: Nike team jerseys and Pepsi’s halftime show). Similarly, in-game sponsored brands (think: __Bose__ sponsoring coaches’ headsets) [earned](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/nfl-sponsors-nike-pepsi-dominate-2022-super-bowl-exposure.html) $170M worth of exposure this year and generated over one hour of screen time — more than all the ads combined.

EVs and crypto dominated this year’s Super Bowl commercials, but the real ad winners weren’t ads at all

Snap gives creators a cut of ad revenue to win over influencers

CoComelon’s “Baby Shark” is the first YouTube video to cross 10B views — more streams than there are people on Earth

👻 Snap gives creators a cut

__Mr. Loan-ly...__ President Biden campaigned on promises of student-loan forgiveness and free college — so far, they haven't panned out. Last week, first lady Jill Biden [admitted](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/politics/jill-biden-free-community-college.html) that her push for free community college is over (for now). The plan’s been scrapped from the massive “Build Back Better” spending bill that Dems are struggling to pass. Broad loan forgiveness could be next.

- __Biden has forgiven $15B__ worth of federal student loans for 675K borrowers — or [1%](https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2022/01/21/biden-administration-touts-15-billion-in-student-loan-forgiveness-for-675000-borrowers/?sh=7d6163207bb6) of the [$1.7T](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/what-it-would-take-for-the-government-to-cancel-student-loans-.html) outstanding student debt owed by 40M+ Americans. Biden’s campaign promise was at least $10K in loan forgiveness for *each* borrower.
- __Biden has extended the pause on loan repayments —__ initially suspended by Trump in March 2020 — three times. Thanks to the pauses, 40M+ borrowers are saving [$5B/month](https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-extends-student-loan-pause-through-may-1-2022).
- __But payments are set to resume__ May 1 for federal loans, which make up 90% of total student debt.

__The price is not right...__ After a nearly two-year pause, Americans will have to start repaying $400/month, on average, in student loans, while inflation has hit a 40-year high. Rising wages have [*not*](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/inflation-eroded-pay-by-1point7percent-over-the-past-year.html) kept up with rising prices, and loans could make it even harder to pay the bills. For context: 12% of public-college grads still owe more than [$40K](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-owes-all-that-student-debt-and-whod-benefit-if-it-were-forgiven/). And nearly half of graduates of for-profit schools have defaulted. Meanwhile, [two-thirds](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-owes-all-that-student-debt-and-whod-benefit-if-it-were-forgiven/) of community-college grads leave with zero debt. 

[Win McNamee / Getty Images]

Aloan

__Loan forgiveness isn’t the underlying problem…__ the cost of US colleges *is*. The average cost of a private college is $38K/year; for public colleges, it’s $23K for out-of-staters. Average tuition and fees have [nearly doubled](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-cost-of-college-in-u-s/) since 2010. Broad loan cancellation would cost the US gov’t [$60B](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/what-it-would-take-for-the-government-to-cancel-student-loans-.html)/year in interest alone, and require big tax hikes to recoup. Since college is so pricey, loans would have to be forgiven all over again in an unsustainable cycle. Last month, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona laid out plans to make college more affordable — but [didn’t mention](https://www.businessinsider.com/broad-student-loan-debt-forgiveness-not-among-education-dept-priorities-2022-1) broad forgiveness. Meanwhile, college enrollment keeps [sliding](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/college-enrollment-declines-as-free-tuition-long-forgiveness-stall.html). 

The May 1 deadline for student-loan payments is weighing on Americans as Biden’s affordable-college promises crumble

__Pelosi-Tok…__ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her VC husband are __TikTok__-[famous](https://www.sfgate.com/national-politics/article/Nancy-Pelosi-viral-stock-trades-16826801.php) for beating the market with their stock trading, a practice she’s [defended](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pelosi-defends-lawmakers-and-their-spouses-trading-stocks-we-are-a-free-market-economy-01639606786) to voters. There’s been growing criticism of lawmakers’ freedom to trade because they literally shape the law. Last year 55 lawmakers reportedly [failed](https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-senate-house-trading-2021-9) to disclose their trades. Politico reported that members of Congress [sold](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/coronavirus-trading-house-senate-140260) travel stocks like __[Royal Caribbean](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RCL)__ and bought pharma stocks like __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ in early 2020 while downplaying Covid. So last week Pelosi [OK’d](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/congress-moves-towards-banning-members-from-trading-stocks.html) a proposal to bar Congress from trading. The House is set to vote by November, but not all members support it.

__Not-so-value meal...__ From cereal and bacon to gas and cars, prices have soared at the fastest rate in 40 years. Inflation’s starting to dent corporate profits across industries: __[Toyota](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TM)__ saw earnings drop 20% last quarter on chip shortages. __[Yum Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YUM)__ (owner of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) said rising ingredient costs and wages hurt its bottom line. __[Unilever](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UL)__ (Ben & Jerry’s, Dove soap) is taking a hit on transportation costs. The Fed wants to rein in prices with at least three interest-rate hikes this year. Regardless, shipping giant __[Maersk](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMKBY)__ says supply shortages aren’t easing up anytime soon.

Stories we’re watching...

__Rainy in the metaverse…__ Shares of tween-favorite gaming platform __[Roblox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBLX)__ (47M users) and chip maker __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__ soared last year as they invested in building out their meta-visions. But despite booming interest in an immersive internet of the future, many meta-focused stocks are now struggling. Nvidia and Roblox have sagged amid a broader tech slump, and __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ stock is down 35% on [stalled](https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2022/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2021-Results/default.aspx) user growth and profit-hitting metaverse investments. We’ll get a pixelated portrait of the metaverse industry when Roblox and Nvidia report Wednesday.

__Piña coladas & conference calls...__ Extended stays are taking the travel industry by storm as WFH turns into work from *hotel*. Last year, 37% of __[Marriott’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__ room [sign-ups](https://marriott.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/marriott-international-provides-update-development-progress-2021) in the US and Canada were for extended-stay trips. Meanwhile, __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ saw [half](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2022/01/22/airbnb-ceo-chesky-remote-work-travel/6622143001/) its customers book for at least seven days. Now real-estate developers like __[Starwood](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STWD)__ are paying [billions](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackstone-starwood-team-up-on-second-extended-stay-hotel-deal-wsj-2022-01-21) to scoop up longer-stay hotel chains that create twice as much profit margin as regular hotels. We’ll see how the “bleisure” economy is faring when __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__, __[Hyatt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/H)__, Marriott, and Airbnb report this week.


Room service > Zoom service [YinYang/E+ via Getty Images]

- __[Versace](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7ycuKKAK4DhlIJ1iFIBRCe/articles/3uR2Sq93Mjj65EyqhxCEXV/):__ The DOJ seized a record $3.6B worth of __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ and arrested a millennial couple (feat. a “financial rapper”) in connection with the 2016 __Bitfinex__ hack, as regulators crack down on crypto crimes. 
- __[Burst](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6oUasks4UHzb87QXAq6Z3b/):__ A key pipeline that carries gas from Russia to Germany is at the center of escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions — but a trade war with Russia could hurt more than just Europe’s gas supply. 
- __[Fees](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1I3jIJQkqK0ygv51yekmCQ/):__ Discount airlines __[Frontier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULCC)__ and __[Spirit](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SAVE)__ agreed to a $6.6B merger that would create the fifth-largest US airline (#FrontSpirit). But Biden’s “big is bad” regulatory stance could keep the deal from taking off.

Student-loan deadline weighs on Americans as Biden’s affordable-college promises crack

In 1986 Oprah Winfrey became the first Black American woman to host a nationally syndicated talk show