🐠 Fake fish, real opportunity

Plenty of fish in the sea… More like plenty of pea protein. Plant-based foods have become so mainstream that alt-meat patties are regulars at Burger King, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Walmart.

• Oat explosion: The global market for plant-based foods could grow to $450B by 2040, which would represent roughly a quarter of the $1.8T meat market.
• Soy stars: The growth has been driven by alternative milk and meat, which together make up 55% of total plant-based sales.
• But in the shadow of Oatly, Beyond Meat, and Impossible Foods, another alt is growing fast: fake fish.

Friend keeps telling you to watch “Seaspiracy”... as you inhale spicy tuna rolls. Alternative seafood is one of the fastest growing segments of the plant-based market. Think: tuna made from tomatoes, and artichoke crab cakes. Investment in US plant-based seafood hit $70M in the first half of 2021 — as much as in the past two years combined. But it still makes up only $12M, or 0.1% of the $15B US seafood market. That’s partly because real seafood has a strong health halo.

Cry me a freshwater river… Big Food may have missed the fake meat boom, but it’s not about to miss the fake fish fiesta.

• Tyson invested in plant-based shellfish company New Wave Foods, which launched its seaweed based shrimp this year.
• Nestle launched Vuna, a plant-based tuna alternative, last year. It cited stats that 90% of global fish stocks are now fully or nearly depleted.
• Thai Union Group, which owns tuna legend Chicken of the Sea, already makes plant-based fish and crab, and plans to launch plant-based shrimp this year.

Green is the new black… Cannabis is on a tear — sales at the top 10 publicly traded cannabis companies more than doubled over the last year. Scotts Miracle-Gro, the garden company whose cannabis subsidiary boomed last quarter, launched a cannabis investment arm last week. The new division already invested $150M in a Canadian cannabis company. Also: last week, a $500M ecomm site Leafly announced plans to go public via SPAC later this year.

After an infrastructure appetizer… it’s time to discuss the entree. Last week, a bipartisan group of Senators passed a historic $1T infrastructure bill to improve roads and rail, internet access, and EV networks. The tab will be partly funded by crypto taxes and Covid funds. But there’s a hook — House Dems plan to stall unless they can also tack on a $3.5T social and climate package. If the bills pass, they could kick off a new era of big government.

The DIY boom is ending… but someone still needs to fix the faucet. DIY-mania powered strong 2020 sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s. But last quarter, sales of “pro” products for contractors exceeded sales from DIYers at both companies — and helped their sales continue rising year-over-year. We’ll see if their new focus on pros through everything from tool rentals to supply chain improvements has paid off when both companies report earnings this week.

Shop ‘til the stimmies stop… After a spring of up-and-down consumer spending, retail sales rose above pre-pandemic levels in June as people spent padded savings and leftover stimulus cash on electronics, cars, and online classes. But inflation, the spread of Delta, and the end of stimmy payments could dampen the buzz. We’ll get a pulse check on America’s shopping spree when the July retail sales report, which tracks retail and restuarant spending, drops on Tuesday.

• Unleased: WeWork is partnering with Saks Fifth Avenue to launch in-store working spaces – this time it doesn't own the leases.
• Experiment: Disney shares jumped last week after its theme parks returned to profit – but its real focus is Disney+ and its Great Media Experiment.
• #Benefits: Walmart and Target offer to pay 100% of college tuition for workers as companies amp up benefits to lure workers.

• Focus: Charles Darwin, Virgina Woolf, and Thomas Jefferson all used this three-or-four hour rule to fuel their best creative work.
• Relax: Six tips to make the most of your well-earned time off – hint: it helps to plan ahead.
• Ride: The Ford F-150 is the best-selling car in the US — but the rest of the world has different tastes.

• Monday: Earnings expected from Tencent Music and Clear Secure
• Tuesday: Retail sales report for July. Earnings expected from Walmart, Home Depot, Just Eat Takeaway (Grubhub), Roblox, Krispy Kreme, and La-Z-Boy
• Wednesday: Earnings expected from Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, Target, and Bath & Body Works
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Estée Lauder, Kohl’s, BJ’s Wholesale, Petco, and Macy’s
• Friday: Earnings expected from John Deere and Foot Locker

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Starbucks, Disney, Walmart, Clear Secure, and Ford.

ID: 1760260