Sherwood
Tuesday Jun.20, 2023

⚡ Tesla’s power play

Rivals in cars, friends in charge (Osmancan Gurdogan/Getty Images)
Rivals in cars, friends in charge (Osmancan Gurdogan/Getty Images)
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Hey Snackers,

Human interactions are out and AI interactions are in at White Castle. Customers have developed a love-hate relationship with Julia, the fast-food chain’s drive-thru AI chatbot, as it sometimes has trouble understanding orders — and isn’t shy to push extra waffle sliders.

The S&P 500 had its best week since March and closed at a 14-month high on Thursday on the back of Big Tech gains. The Fed paused rate hikes (at least for this month) but hinted that more could be coming. Chair Powell said cuts were "a couple of years" away.

Juicy

Tesla pulls ahead in the EV industry’s “charge-off” as rivals pick its plug

Juiced up… Tesla superchargers make up 6 in 10 fast chargers in the US and Canada, and the EV icon says it operates the largest fast-charging network globally with 45K plugs. Now Tesla’s charger is quickly becoming the standard:

  • The latest: Last week, charging-station companies including ChargePoint said they’ll start offering Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) in addition to the gov’t-backed Combined Charging System (CCS) they already have on tap.

  • OG support: The move is likely a reaction to Ford and GM recently saying their next gen of EVs will use Tesla’s NACS. Dodge parent Stellantis said last week that it might join Team NACS too.

  • Vote of confidence: It’s a huge boost for Tesla’s charger because Ford, GM, and Tesla combined make up over 70% of the US EV market.

May the best plug win… Tesla has said its NACS chargers are “half the size and twice as powerful” as the CCS ones, but the US gov’t funds only CCS, which was developed by several automakers. To qualify for a bite of the $7.5B in charging subsidies the Biden admin is offering, Tesla agreed in February to add CCS to as many as 7.5K of its chargers.

  • Peer pressure: Given the pro-NACS news, the White House could reconsider its CCS-centric ways. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg recently said one system would win out.

  • Free of charge: While Tesla made its NACS design available for competitors to use freely last year, its charging-station revenue should rise when more cars (including non-Teslas) can plug in.

There’s (electric) power in numbers… Letting others into Club Tesla could accelerate EV adoption. While Tesla owners will lose their exclusive access to its charging stations (a major perk), Piper Sandler estimates that Tesla could generate billions more in revenue from non-Tesla charging. And while GM and Ford risk losing customers (who’ll be surrounded by Model Y’s at stations), they’ll be able to offer a charging experience that Musk has called “fundamentally better.”

Zoom out

Stories we’re watching

Hot Strike Summer… A historic UPS strike that would wreak havoc on the US supply chain could be seven weeks away. On Friday the 340K-member UPS Teamsters union authorized the use of a strike — which would be the largest in American history against a single employer — as tense negotiations continue ahead of the August 1 contract deadline. A tentative agreement to install AC in most new vans was reached last week; now the focus is pay. UPS delivers a quarter of all US parcels (more than FedEx or Amazon), which it says accounts for 6% of GDP.

Concerning… A commercial real estate crisis is brewing as remote work and high interest rates converge. US office vacancies hit their highest level in decades this year, and rent delinquencies are spiking. Building owners are scrambling for tenants as $270B in commercial bank loans come due this year. In San Francisco (where vacancies are highest), mall operator Westfield and a Hilton are throwing in the towel. Meanwhile, retailers from Nordstrom to Whole Foods are closing stores in urban shopping areas where sales are down and retail crime is up.

Events

Coming up this week

Van-life aesthetic… RV icon Winnebago thrived during the pandemic as Americans social-distanced while rolling through the heartland (#WorkFromWinnebago). In early 2022, it drove home a record $1.2B in quarterly revenue. But RV sales are down by half this year as folks ditch the open road and return to normal life. Despite cooling demand, Winnebago beat earnings expectations in March as the mobile-home life chugged on. The biz reports Wednesday, and its stock popped last week after RV rival Thor unloaded a big profit beat.

Slaps roof of car… The nation's largest used-vehicle seller has hit a few speed bumps this year. The last time CarMax reported profit was down 57% on the year, and in the face of loan losses it said it would toughen lending standards. (Americans struggled to make car payments as rates skyrocketed and the repo man showed up.) But when competitors Carvana and Vroom reported last, they both saw narrowing losses on the year. We'll see whether CarMax can drive itself out of the ditch when it reports Friday.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

  • Juneteenth: This month California is set to release a historic reparations report calculating proposed payouts for descendants of Black American slaves in the state. Some estimates suggest it could be as much $1.2M/person.

  • Curious: The hottest drink of summer could be… a mocktail. As Gen Z leans into the sober-curious lifestyle, bevs like non-boozy beer and botanical spritzes are trending. Zero proof = zero hangover.

  • Crusted: Robot pizza startup Zume has tossed its last dough. The ex-Silicon Valley darling was once valued at $2.3B for its ’za-delivering robo-trucks, but startup funding has dried up as risk appetites wane.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Boba: More zillennials are splurging on tiny pleasures (think: $5 lattes and cute succulents) as a way to escape. As budgets tighten, “treat culture” is helping young adults find comfort in an uncomfy economy.

  • Devilish: Activision Blizzard's Diablo IV crossed $666M in sales (convenient) in five days — a record for the game maker. But the success could create more regulatory pushback over its planned merger with Microsoft.

  • Exes: Netflix's password-mooching crackdown is paying off. Since the streamer restricted account sharing in the US last month, it’s reportedly notched its four biggest sign-up days on record.

This Week

  • Monday: Markets closed for Juneteenth

  • Tuesday: Housing starts. Earnings expected from FedEx and La-Z-Boy

  • Wednesday: First day of summer. Earnings expected from KB Home and Winnebago

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims and existing-home sales. Earnings expected from Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants and Accenture

  • Friday: Earnings expected from CarMax

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Amazon, GM, Tesla, Microsoft, and Vroom

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