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47K East Coast dockworkers could soon strike, reigniting shipping disruptions

Max Knoblauch / Monday, January 06, 2025
Port pressure, the sequel. (Brian Branch Price/Shutterstock)
Port pressure, the sequel. (Brian Branch Price/Shutterstock)

New year, same strike… East and Gulf Coast ports aren’t leaving their problems in 2024. As soon as next week, 47K unionized dockworkers could run it back on their three-day strike from October. That work stoppage, the first of its kind in nearly a half century, was suspended after the union and port employers reached a tentative wage-hike deal (62% over six years). But they kicked the can on the issue of automation. The temporary truce’s end date is fast approaching, and talks between the two sides are set to resume tomorrow. 

  • Heavy cargo: If a deal isn’t reached, an estimated $5B/day strike could start as early as January 16, shutting down ports that account for 60% of US shipping traffic. Last week, Danish shipping juggernaut Maersk told customers that negotiations hadn’t advanced.

  • Automation agitation: The union wants a contract that guarantees employers won’t introduce automation or semi-automation at ports.

  • Delivery date: President-elect Trump’s inauguration is set for four days after the strike could begin. Last month, Trump voiced support for the union and said shipping companies should invest in wages over machinery.

Replacement anxiety… Dockworkers, animators, culinary workers, and video-game motion-capture performers have something in common: they’ve all recently sought protection from having their jobs automated away. Automation and AI have been a labor sticking point and the reason behind stoppages like the ongoing SAG video-game strike. 75% of Americans think AI will reduce the # of US jobs, and last year the tech played a role in layoffs at companies including UPS and Intuit. 61% of large US companies plan this year to use AI to automate tasks once done by humans.

Automation isn’t a miracle drug… Investments in automation may not always come with big returns. Recent studies have found that port automation lowers some costs (including payroll), but doesn’t significantly improve performance. At one SoCal port, shipping execs said a partially automated terminal and a nonautomated terminal were roughly equal in productivity.

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