Russia ends a critical grain-shipping deal with Ukraine, threatening global food security
No go… The Black Sea Grain Initiative expired Monday after Russia refused to extend the wartime deal. The agreement had allowed Ukraine (a leading exporter of grains and vegetable oils) to safely ship food across the Black Sea, which both countries border. After the deal’s collapse, wheat, corn, and soybean prices jumped, and Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s main grain-shipping ports.
Putin’s problem: Russia said the deal favors Ukraine, but it’s willing to reconsider if global leaders meet a list of demands to unwind key economic sanctions.
One hitch: Russia’s ally China is the leading importer of Ukrainian grain under the Black Sea deal, and it could pressure Russia to reconsider.
Food crisis… Since the pact was signed a year ago (five months after Russia invaded Ukraine), 33M tons of crops have been sent across the Black Sea to 45 countries. Fourteen African countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for over half of their wheat imports, and one, Eritrea, is totally dependent. Now they’ll likely rely more on Russia, which has been the biggest global wheat exporter over the past two harvest seasons. But experts say that increased output from Russia and other suppliers can’t fill the widening gap left by Ukraine. Food supplies are expected to be further devastated by the El Niño storm season and droughts in Europe.
One player can upset the balance… in a globalized world. Countries are more interconnected than ever, which can be dangerous in times of turmoil. Global leaders have worked to roll back involvement with Russia (the EU cutting back on Russian energy, companies ditching operations there). But Russia’s using the cards it has left — food, in this case — as a weapon.