Hot Strike Summer… A historic UPS strike that would wreak havoc on the US supply chain could be seven weeks away. On Friday the 340K-member UPS Teamsters union authorized the use of a strike — which would be the largest in American history against a single employer — as tense negotiations continue ahead of the August 1 contract deadline. A tentative agreement to install AC in most new vans was reached last week; now the focus is pay. UPS delivers a quarter of all US parcels (more than FedEx or Amazon), which it says accounts for 6% of GDP.
Concerning… A commercial real estate crisis is brewing as remote work and high interest rates converge. US office vacancies hit their highest level in decades this year, and rent delinquencies are spiking. Building owners are scrambling for tenants as $270B in commercial bank loans come due this year. In San Francisco (where vacancies are highest), mall operator Westfield and a Hilton are throwing in the towel. Meanwhile, retailers from Nordstrom to Whole Foods are closing stores in urban shopping areas where sales are down and retail crime is up.