More hyped than “Stranger Things”... at least by economists. Friday's monthly jobs report, aka: America's “Labor 101” report card, came at a critical time for the economy. The results: the booming job market cooled slightly in May. Key word: slightly.
A tale of two markets... Unemployment stayed at a pandemic low of 3.6%, and rebounding sectors like hospitality can't hire fast enough. The paradox: sectors that thrived mid-pandemic are slowing hiring and cutting jobs to shave costs.
A slowdown could be good… if done right. While rising wage growth is usually positive, at the current pace it’s nearly impossible to tame inflation (aka: econ enemy #1). Wages and purchasing power are actually falling when adjusted for inflation — read: not keeping up with rising prices. The Fed’s big challenge: cool the labor market without undoing the progress made during the rebound. But it could be hard to distinguish between a healthy cooling and a recession — which experts see as increasingly likely.