The New Hampshire GOP primary will test the power of big money in politics

And then there were two… Today is primary day in New Hampshire and, following Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ exit, it’s a showdown between deep-pocketed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former President Trump. As the $78M GOP ad spend in the state shows, New Hampshire’s primary is huge: the winner there has become the GOP nominee in the past three election cycles (2008, ’12, and ’16). As voting began, polling suggested that the GOP nom is likely Trump’s for the taking, after his record win in Iowa.

• Serious spending: Haley’s campaign and supporters are outspending Trump in the overall GOP primary by a wide margin. So far, Haley’s campaign and outside groups have spent nearly $70M on ads, while the Trump campaign and supporters have spent almost $40M.

• After the count: A loss in New Hampshire might not be the end for Haley. South Carolina (her home state) is another early-voting hub, and billionaire supporters like investor Stanley Druckenmiller and Home Depot cofounder Ken Langone still have a Haley mega-fundraiser on the books.

2024 winner: ad sellers… This election cycle’s ad spending is projected to hit a record $10B+, and the pricey Republican race seems to validate those expectations. In the first 19 days of this month alone, GOP spending reached $275M. Across the aisle, the Biden campaign and outside groups are stockpiling cash: the president’s reelection committee raised ~$100M last quarter (likely way more than his rivals did), and a top outside group supporting him pulled in $208M last year.