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Uber's IPO paperwork arrives (with a growth problem)

Snacks / Friday, April 12, 2019

"We do the right thing. Period."... Bold opening pitch by Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. The IPO paperwork filed Thursday revealed its financials, risks, opportunities, and a bunch of missions and values. These 420 pages are its most official step yet to become publicly traded, and the IPO ETA is early May.

312... That's how many times we counted "ride-sharing" in the filing. It's technically "ride-hailing" – And the word choice was a calculated (and not quite accurate) move. Here's what else we noticed:

  • Slowing (even negative) growth: Revenues grew 22x from 2014 to 2018, reaching $11B. But it's pumped the brakes — in mid-2017, one measure of its revenue was growing 22% per year. By the end of 2018 that was actually negative, at -0.04%.
  • Democracy: Unlike Lyft, Uber boasts a one share, one vote policy. Some Lyft investors are worried their two co-founders control 5% of shares but almost 50% of voting power.
  • Uber everything, everywhere: Uber has 91M users on 6 continents and 4 kids: ride-hailing, bikes/scooters, food delivery, and freight — with autonomous driving/flying babies on the way.

Spoiler Alert: "We may not achieve profitability"... Uber lost $10B in the past three years as it's fought viciously with Lyft for market share. For Uber to reach profits, it'll need to make some changes.

  • Fewer promos: Each "refer-a-friend and get $10 off" code costs money.
  • Fewer human drivers: Awkward, but if it can replace drivers with computer software, it'll keep more of the 78% of each ride fare going to drivers.
  • More rent-taking: Eventually Uber's likely to raise prices for rides, spend less on lawsuits and acquisitions, and take its cut of the billions of Ubers happening every year.

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