Checks and balances… Claudia Sheinbaum won Mexico’s presidential race Sunday with ~60% of the vote, the highest in the country’s democratic history. She’s set to become Mexico’s first female president and its first Jewish prez too. Her party, Morena, had a sweeping victory in state and congressional elections, setting it up for a potential supermajority. But some investors weren’t cheering: Mexican stocks dropped and the country’s peso fell 5% amid concerns that her party will push through policies without opposition. It could mean the US’s southern neighbor may usher in a less business-friendly era.
BTFs (best trade friends): Last year, Mexico surpassed China to become the US’s top trading partner, making up 15% of total US trade.
FYI: Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (#AMLO) is also in the Morena party, but he didn’t previously have a supermajority.
AMLO’s parting gift… Obrador will have over a month in office with a pro-Morena congress during which he could push through proposals that had been stalled or blocked. One political analyst said it would be “the most revolutionary month that Mexico has experienced in this century.” A couple of constitutional changes that could affect businesses include the elimination of autonomous biz regulators (the gov’t would take on that role) and legislation that could promote state utility services (like electricity) over privately run ones.
Future tense: Mexican markets could wobble on news of Sheinbaum’s economic-team picks and fiscal-policy plans, such as her handling of state-operated oil co Petróleos Mexicanos’s massive debt.
Investors love (trying) to predict global policy… A congressional supermajority could throw the scales in Mexico, potentially introducing an era of economic policy that strains economic ties with the US. But investors don’t always see political dominance as a bad thing: Indian stocks dropped this week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seen as pro-business, won reelection by a narrower-than-expected margin.