Analyst: Tesla won’t hit 500,000 deliveries a quarter this year, either
Well-respected Tesla analyst Troy Teslike said on X today that he doesn’t think Tesla will reach 500,000 deliveries — a number the EV company had hoped to hit last year and failed — any quarter this year.
“This year’s best quarter will likely be below 470,000 units but the situation seems to be getting worse, and soon even 450,000 might be hard to achieve,” Teslike wrote.
Tesla delivered 495,570 cars in Q4 2024. They came very close to 500,000 but didn’t quite make it because of demand issues. Sadly, reaching 500,000 in a single quarter doesn’t seem possible this year either, mostly because of brand sentiment issues.
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) February 26, 2025
This year’s best quarter will… pic.twitter.com/HjT0kyzwe2
While a total of 1.88 million deliveries in 2025 (the high end of his estimate for all four quarters) would represent a slight “return to growth” as Tesla promised during its last earnings, it would be a long way off from the 20% to 30% growth it had previously projected the quarter before that.
Consensus estimates on FactSet peg total Tesla deliveries this year at 1.99 million, with Tesla passing the 500,000 mark in Q4.
If January Tesla sales around the world are any indication, those numbers will be very hard to hit.