Tech
tech
Rani Molla

Analysts expect iPhone revenue to return to growth this year and next

Sales of Apple’s latest iPhone are shaping up for a good year, after a couple of pretty crappy ones, according to the latest analyst consensus estimates from FactSet.

Analysts have been revising up their iPhone revenue expectations for the fiscal year ended in late September — which includes a half month of the latest iPhone sales — and now expect iPhone revenue to rise 4.5% in FY 2025 to $210 billion. Growth for FY 2026 is now pegged at 5.5%. Last year, sales were basically flat after declining more than 2% in FY 2023. Of course, as Apple’s hold on the global smartphone market has grown over the years, its latest growth expectations pale in comparison to the early 2010s, but still represent the strongest growth since the pandemic.

Some are crediting the iPhone 17’s physical redesign for positive sales indicators, but we suspect the boost has more to do with a natural upgrade cycle than any specific features.

The stock is trading up nearly 2% premarket and is expected to open near a record high today, following positive early sales estimates from Counterpoint Research and an upgrade from Loop Capital which raised its price target to $315, a Street high.

Apple reports its 2025 fiscal year results on October 30.

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Waymo’s now serving more than 500,000 paid robotaxi rides every week

The Alphabet-owned company grew its ridership more than tenfold in less than two years.

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tech
Jon Keegan

Judge blocks Pentagon’s move to blacklist Anthropic

A federal judge in Northern California has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk.

The ruling temporarily prevents the Defense Department from restricting the AI company’s access to federal contracts amid a dispute over its refusal to allow certain military and surveillance uses of its technology. The designation could also have shifted lucrative government work toward competitors, including OpenAI.

Earlier this month, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, sued 17 federal agencies and their heads, alleging the government exceeded its statutory authority.

tech
Rani Molla

Report: SpaceX’s record IPO may grant preferential access to retail investors and Tesla shareholders

SpaceX’s impending IPO could raise $40 billion to $80 billion and rank as the largest ever — as well as one of the most unconventional.

The Wall Street Journal reports several ways CEO Elon Musk is considering breaking with IPO norms:

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

Exclusive | The SpaceX IPO Will Be Just as Unconventional as Musk Himself

Exclusive | The SpaceX IPO Will Be Just as Unconventional as Musk Himself

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

tech
Rani Molla

Tesla released estimates for Q1 deliveries and they’re lower than analysts expected

Ahead of first-quarter earnings next month, Tesla released its own company-compiled Wall Street consensus estimate for deliveries: 365,645 vehicles. While that’s lower than the 382,000 FactSet consensus estimate, it represents a nearly 9% jump from Q1 2025, when Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles.

Tesla started releasing its own consensus estimates to the public — not just institutional investors — for the first time in Q4 2025. The move was seen as a way to temper investor expectations, as other estimates were too high. Last quarter, Tesla’s compilation was closer to actual numbers, which fell 16% year over year.

The market-implied odds from event contracts suggest 64% of traders think Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will be more than 350,000, 44% think it will be higher than 360,000, and just 21% have it at higher than 370,000.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

ARC-AGI-3

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