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Apple's big “ad” business is mostly cashing their $20B check from Google

In what was mostly a disappointing earnings report with declining iPhones sales, Apple was quick to point out that its services segment notched record revenue. Advertising, the company keeps saying, is helping drive those services numbers.

But Business Insider’s Peter Kafka reports Apple’s ad business isn’t what normal people think of when they think of ads.

While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

While Apple does have a more traditional ads business, there’s a huge “third-party licensing arrangement" it tucks into its ad revenue line. In 2022, Google paid Apple more than $20 billion to be the default search on iPhones and other Apple devices, according to antitrust documents.

Traditional ads make up about 6% of Apple's annual services revenue, while the Google deal brings in more than 20%.

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Data center frenzy taxes natural resources, sparks anger around the globe

The race to build ever-larger, power-hungry data centers isn't limited to the US. In Ireland, more than 20% (!!!) of the country’s electricity is consumed by data centers. In Mexico, poor communities near data center sites are seeing water supplies dry up and their fragile power grids falter.

A New York Times report examines what these data center projects look like around the world, and track the local opposition mounted by environmental groups seeking to block future projects.

The report notes that despite growing local opposition, countries are still bending over backwards to lure the billions of dollars in investment that come with these data center projects, offering rich tax incentives to the companies developing the projects, in exchange for a relatively small number of jobs, and promises of various-if-vague local benefits.

Much like in the US, the data center deals are shrouded in secrecy, with elected officials required to sign NDAs, and the extensive use of shell companies masking the identity of the massive tech companies behind the projects.

A New York Times report examines what these data center projects look like around the world, and track the local opposition mounted by environmental groups seeking to block future projects.

The report notes that despite growing local opposition, countries are still bending over backwards to lure the billions of dollars in investment that come with these data center projects, offering rich tax incentives to the companies developing the projects, in exchange for a relatively small number of jobs, and promises of various-if-vague local benefits.

Much like in the US, the data center deals are shrouded in secrecy, with elected officials required to sign NDAs, and the extensive use of shell companies masking the identity of the massive tech companies behind the projects.

Man Working at Machine

OpenAI claimed a math breakthrough this weekend, only to be smacked down

The embarrassing episode sprouted from a misunderstood post, amplified by an OpenAI executive as proof of GPT-5’s mathematical prowess, but turned out not to be what it seemed.

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Analysts expect iPhone revenue to return to growth this year and next

Sales of Apple’s latest iPhone are shaping up for a good year, after a couple of pretty crappy ones, according to the latest analyst consensus estimates from FactSet.

Analysts have been revising up their iPhone revenue expectations for the fiscal year ended in late September — which includes a half month of the latest iPhone sales — and now expect iPhone revenue to rise 4.5% in FY 2025 to $210 billion. Growth for FY 2026 is now pegged at 5.5%. Last year, sales were basically flat after declining more than 2% in FY 2023. Of course, as Apple’s hold on the global smartphone market has grown over the years, its latest growth expectations pale in comparison to the early 2010s, but still represent the strongest growth since the pandemic.

Some are crediting the iPhone 17’s physical redesign for positive sales indicators, but we suspect the boost has more to do with a natural upgrade cycle than any specific features.

The stock is trading up nearly 2% premarket and is expected to open near a record high today, following positive early sales estimates from Counterpoint Research and an upgrade from Loop Capital which raised its price target to $315, a Street high.

Apple reports its 2025 fiscal year results on October 30.

14%

During its first 10 days on the market in the US and China, Apple’s iPhone 17 outsold last year’s iPhone 16 by 14%, according to Bloomberg, citing Counterpoint Research. This data builds on other indicators suggesting the new iPhone is a relative hit.

Counterpoint credits the phone’s improved display, added storage, and the upgraded A19 chip for the sales boost, but we think it probably has more to do with a natural upgrade cycle.

tech
Jon Keegan

Google’s Gemini 3.0 reportedly due to be released in December

Google is aiming to release the latest version of its flagship AI model, Gemini 3.0, in December, according to a report from Sources.news.

The updated model is expected to make significant gains that should boost it to the top of the leaderboards, according to the report.

The Gemini app also spent some time at the top of the iOS App Store leaderboards, propelled by Google’s Nano Banana image generation model, which proved popular with users looking to turn themselves into action figures. Gemini briefly knocked ChatGPT from the top spot, which is now occupied by OpenAI’s other hot app, Sora.

Recently, there have been signs of ChatGPT downloads slowing, which could provide an opening for Gemini to gain market share. Adding some premium Gemini features to the free tier is a plan under discussion within Google, per Sources.news.

Sources.news also reports that a “small, secretive team” inside Google is working to integrate Gemini into Apple’s operating systems.

The Gemini app also spent some time at the top of the iOS App Store leaderboards, propelled by Google’s Nano Banana image generation model, which proved popular with users looking to turn themselves into action figures. Gemini briefly knocked ChatGPT from the top spot, which is now occupied by OpenAI’s other hot app, Sora.

Recently, there have been signs of ChatGPT downloads slowing, which could provide an opening for Gemini to gain market share. Adding some premium Gemini features to the free tier is a plan under discussion within Google, per Sources.news.

Sources.news also reports that a “small, secretive team” inside Google is working to integrate Gemini into Apple’s operating systems.

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