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AGI DON’T KNOW

When is AGI coming? These experts have it figured it out.

We’re keeping them honest with the Sherwood News AGI Prediction Tracker.

6/12/25 10:47AM

Updated 7/16/25 8:52AM

Can you feel the AGI? It’s coming.

At least that’s what a lot of big names in AI are saying. While there isn’t even an agreed upon definition of what AGI — artificial general intelligence — is, these AI guys are confident enough to say it is going to happen, and they know when (give or take a few years).

The definition of AGI varies widely. OpenAI’s charter defines it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work,” while Elon Musk says it’s AI that is “smarter than the smartest human.” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks AGI is more like a “country of geniuses in a datacenter.”

But the core idea is an AI system that is better than humans at most tasks. The trick is, once someone claims to have achieved AGI, it isn’t clear everyone will agree that they have.

And yes, we did look at what many non-male AI experts have been saying about AGI, but most of them aren't making predictions because a lot of them don't think AGI is a thing that will happen.

Dr. Emily M. Bender, professor of linguistics at The University of Washington, and Dr. Alex Hanna, Director of Research at the Distributed AI Research (DAIR), co-authors of "The AI Con: How to Fight Big Tech's Hype and Create the Future We Want" call out the promises of AGI, and question the true motives of those calling AGI's arrival imminent:

“The term is a vague signifier for a technology that will somehow lead to endless abundance for humankind — and conveniently also a means to avoid accountability as tech moguls make off with billions in capital investment and, more alarmingly, public spending.”

Everyone hedges their bets, and some of the thresholds may be fuzzy, but we’ve been hearing these predictions enough that we felt we needed to track them. From the leaders of Alphabet to Tesla, here’s when the best-known AI thinkers — and those who have the most to gain from the innovation — think AGI is coming.

We’ll keep this tracker updated. Seen one that we’ve missed? Send them our way: keegan@sherwoodmedia.com!

UPDATE (July 16): Added Dr. Alex Hanna to quote attribution.

Rani Molla

It turns out Tesla’s Cybercab might need to have a steering wheel and pedals after all

Tesla’s Cybercab was supposed to be a steering-wheel-less alternative to its affordable mass market car.

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Intel romps amid reported attempt to poach a 21-year Taiwan Semiconductor veteran

A report in the Taiwanese press that Intel is attempting to recruit a recently retired top Taiwan Semiconductor executive, Wei-Jen Lo, to lead R&D at Intel’s troubled foundry division may account for the bump in Intel shares Tuesday, one analyst told us.

A synopsis of the report from technology analysis and news outlet TrendForce News notes:

“If confirmed, the move could have significant implications for TSMC and the broader Taiwanese semiconductor industry, especially as Intel aggressively expands its foundry business with support from Washington and backing from tech giants like NVIDIA and SoftBank, the report adds.”

But some skepticism about Lo, 75 years old, returning to Intel, where he worked before joining TSMC in 2004, is also warranted, TrendForce says:

“Industry insiders cited by the report say it is unlikely he would join Intel again, given TSMC’s non-compete rules, Intel’s status as a direct competitor, Lo’s advanced age, health considerations, and his long-standing loyalty to TSMC founder Morris Chang. On the other hand, some industry observers warn that Lo, a U.S. citizen, would be difficult for TSMC to restrict, even with non-compete clauses.”

Intel shares have doubled over the last three months, since the US government took a 10% stake in the company in August. Intel is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over that period.

Intel Reportedly Eyes Retired TSMC Veteran Wei-Jen Lo, Advanced Node Pioneer, to Lead R&D

“If confirmed, the move could have significant implications for TSMC and the broader Taiwanese semiconductor industry, especially as Intel aggressively expands its foundry business with support from Washington and backing from tech giants like NVIDIA and SoftBank, the report adds.”

But some skepticism about Lo, 75 years old, returning to Intel, where he worked before joining TSMC in 2004, is also warranted, TrendForce says:

“Industry insiders cited by the report say it is unlikely he would join Intel again, given TSMC’s non-compete rules, Intel’s status as a direct competitor, Lo’s advanced age, health considerations, and his long-standing loyalty to TSMC founder Morris Chang. On the other hand, some industry observers warn that Lo, a U.S. citizen, would be difficult for TSMC to restrict, even with non-compete clauses.”

Intel shares have doubled over the last three months, since the US government took a 10% stake in the company in August. Intel is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 over that period.

Rani Molla

Eye on AI

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Nokia surges as Nvidia invests $1 billion in company, a 2.9% stake

Nvidia is taking a 2.9% stake in Nokia, as the Finnish mobile networking company has successfully pivoted to AI and data center technology.

In a press release announcing the deal, Nokia said:

“Nokia intends to accelerate development of Nokia’s 5G & 6G RAN software to run on NVIDIA’s architecture and will make investments to drive Nokia’s strategic goal of increasing its presence in the AI & Cloud market with data center aligned networking solutions within its Network Infrastructure business. Nokia and NVIDIA have agreed to collaborate on AI networking solutions and explore opportunities to incorporate Nokia’s data center switching and optical technologies in NVIDIA’s future AI infrastructure architecture.”

Nokia’s stock shot up over 20% on news of the deal.

Nvidia to Invest $1 Billion in Nokia in AI Networking Push

“Nokia intends to accelerate development of Nokia’s 5G & 6G RAN software to run on NVIDIA’s architecture and will make investments to drive Nokia’s strategic goal of increasing its presence in the AI & Cloud market with data center aligned networking solutions within its Network Infrastructure business. Nokia and NVIDIA have agreed to collaborate on AI networking solutions and explore opportunities to incorporate Nokia’s data center switching and optical technologies in NVIDIA’s future AI infrastructure architecture.”