JPM: Trump’s pending legislation threatens more than half of Tesla’s profits
Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” could take a big, beautiful bite out of Tesla’s bottom line, or about 52% of the electric vehicle company’s 2024 EBIT, according to a report today from JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman.
The legislation would get rid of the $7,500 federal tax credit EV buyers receive, resulting in a $1.2 billion (19% of its EBIT) headwind for the company thanks to lower demand and margins. Additionally, the legislation would outlaw the California Air Resources Board’s ZEV program, which furnishes Tesla with regulatory credits. Without them, Tesla would have posted a loss last quarter. Brinkman estimates that would add an additional $2 billion hit (33% of EBIT).
“Tesla appears to have the most to lose from the shifting regulatory backdrop,” Brinkman wrote. Of course, Tesla’s shares aren’t trading on fundamentals.
“This looks dead and Tesla shares were up,” Brinkman said, referring to both of the credits on a webinar for his report today. “The stock market is completely oblivious to this development.”