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PHANTOM THREADS

Meta says that Threads now has more than 350 million monthly active users

But the question remains: who actually uses it?

Millie Giles

Social media giant Meta reported its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and there was a lot to like: ad revenues increased 16% year over year; its AI data center plans are ramping up; and total revenue crushed expectations, hitting $42.3 billion.

But amid all of the big numbers, there was one comparatively needle-sized figure in the earnings call. CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed that Threads, Meta’s answer to Twitter/X, has now grown to over 350 million monthly active users, up some 30 million from the previous quarter — or, the equivalent of adding roughly the entire user base (~35 million) of rival Bluesky in just three months.

It seems that the text-first app is still growing almost two years after its debut, with Zuckerberg indicating on the call that Threads “continues to be on track to become our next major social app.” For some reason, though, it just doesn’t really feel that way.

Though we don’t have access to in-app traffic, looking at site visit data from Similarweb suggests that people seem to be driving clicks to Bluesky, the new microblogging platform on the block, much more than to the Instagram-linked service.

Bluesky vs. Threads
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Bluesky rocketed in popularity during the US presidential election — owing to a mass exodus of users from X — with visits to the platform almost tripling in the month of November last year. Even since then, visits to Bluesky have gone up, climbing to ~73 million in March. Meanwhile, visits to threads.net have plateaued, having seen a much more modest uplift from November’s X-odus.

Now, if you’re wondering why a Meta-backed social media service has a “.net” domain, Threads has only just managed to secure “threads.com.” It officially changed the URL on April 24, after the messaging startup app that originally had the address was finally acquired by Shopify last June.

Common threads

So how does a platform that has 350 million active users per month only drive 28 million visits to its site?

One obvious answer is that, because it’s still so inextricably linked with Instagram, Threads users are even more app-based and therefore less likely to navigate to threads.net on a web browser. Another explanation is that the 350 million figure potentially includes a lot of people who might use Threads very lightly — clicking on one or two links via Instagram per month, with little intent on sharing Threads content more widely.

When Threads first launched in July 2023, it reported an instant surge of interest, hitting 10 million user signups in just seven hours, then 100 million in under five days — a milestone that took Facebook 4.5 years to reach.

But much of this momentum has come from Threads’ connection to Instagram, which reportedly has ~2 billion monthly active users. In order to sign up for Threads, you need an existing Instagram account; the direct message function on Threads redirects to Instagram DMs; and the microblogging app is plugged on Instagram feeds by showing users Threads posts from their followers and people of interest.

Accounts made through Instagram, then barely touched, are perhaps what’s giving Threads that “empty feeling,” and prompts the question of who actually uses it despite its strong user base. The challenge for Meta now is keeping those 350 million MAUs posting on the app — which it’s found some success in by creating spaces for particular topics of interest and communities, à la Reddit — and, beyond that, monetizing it. Last week, Meta announced in a blog post that all “eligible advertisers globally” will now be able to run ads on Threads.

X-ed out

Still, both Threads and Bluesky might struggle to outpace the original microblogging platform, X. Site visit data from Similarweb shows that X.com had 979 million site visits in March alone, almost 35x the amount of visits that threads.net saw that month.

X traffic Similarweb
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Indeed, on the same day that Meta reported its Q1 earnings, X CEO Linda Yaccarino reported that the platform now has 600 million monthly active users globally, slightly up from the 570 million the company said it reached last September.

However, Meta’s approach with Threads thus far has been to address its Goliath competition head-on. On Monday, an internal Meta planning deck was revealed in courts as part of the FTC’s ongoing antitrust trial against the company, which showed that employees initially pitched Threads as a better version of Twitter at a time when the social platform was experiencing “instability.” Now, Meta is stepping up efforts to directly wrangle users from X, testing a new feature that allows users to easily find the Threads accounts of the same creators they follow on X.

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Rani Molla

Jefferies downgrades Apple to “underperform,” calls iPhone sales expectations “excessive”

Sure, Apple’s latest iPhone is selling better than some previous models, but that’s already reflected in the stock, Jefferies analysts wrote in a note today. In it they downgraded the stock to “underperform” and kept the price target roughly flat at $205.

The analysts argue the sales bump stems from high trade-in values and the lack of price hikes, rather than “new form factor or tech innovations.” As we recently noted, it could also have something to do with a natural upgrade cycle rather than consumers going nuts over NITS.

The analysts say the positive sales momentum for the iPhone 17 has engendered “excessive expectations” for the replacement cycle as well as for the company’s upcoming foldable iPhone.

“We do not doubt AAPL will be able to make the most beautiful foldable phone in the market, but the question is the TAM [total addressable market] of a US$2K phone,” they wrote.

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Rani Molla

JPMorgan reiterates “underweight” rating after Tesla delivery beat

While Tesla delivered a massive delivery beat yesterday, JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman wants to remind investors to put that beat into context:

  1. He noted that the surge was likely a temporary one thanks to pulled-forward demand by consumers hoping to capitalize on the $7,500 tax credit that ended September 30. That pull forward will necessarily mean fewer purchases later, and the end of the tax credit “ultimately will negatively impact Tesla deliveries as soon as October 1.” He added that the analyst consensus still expects Tesla’s full-year sales to decline.

  2. Tesla’s beat, Brinkman said, was in part due to analysts having dramatically lowered their previous estimates amid falling sales. While the nearly 500,000 deliveries in Q3 were about 12% higher than the analyst consensus right before the numbers came out, he noted that analyst expectations have been grinding lower for years. He pointed out that Street estimates for Q3 2025 deliveries peaked at 1.1 million in 2022. While the company missed that peak estimate by 56%, the stock is up 81% in the intervening years.

JPMorgan raised its third-quarter earnings-per-share and free cash flow estimates on the delivery numbers, but reiterated its “underweight” rating for the stock.

tech
Rani Molla

OpenAI’s Sora has bumped Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT from the top of the App Store

OpenAI’s AI-only social media app, Sora, launched three days ago and is already No. 1 on the US free App Store, where it has displaced regular favorite AI apps Gemini from Google and ChatGPT, OpenAI’s main app. It’s an especially impressive feat given that for now the highly addictive, legally murky app is invite-only.

Of course, many a buzzy app has surged up the App Store ranks only to fizzle over time. We’ll see what happens with Sora.

tech
Jon Keegan

OpenAI’s hot Sora video app is a copyright lawsuit waiting to happen

OpenAI has generated some serious buzz surrounding its new Sora video generation app. The app is currently No. 3 on the iOS free app leaderboards, even though it’s invitation-only for the time being.

But users have been flooding social media with videos generated by Sora, and in addition to a “Skibidi Toilet” Sam Altman and the OpenAI CEO dressed as a Nazi, the app is able to create videos featuring iconic characters from Disney, Nintendo, and Paramount Skydance.

On the system card for the Sora 2 AI model (which powers the Sora app), OpenAI says it was trained on things found on the internet:

“Sora 2 was trained on diverse datasets, including information that is publicly available on the internet, information that we partner with third parties to access, and information that our users or human trainers and researchers provide or generate.”

This seems like an invitation for a big copyright lawsuit, along the lines of the one Disney, Dreamworks, and NBCUniversal recently filed against AI image generator Midjourney.

But OpenAI is trying to flip the responsibility of protecting copyrighted material to the intellectual property owners themselves. According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is allowing copyrighted material in Sora by default, unless copyright holders opt out of the service.

The courts will have to decide if this novel approach to intellectual copyright law works, but government regulators may not be that big of a problem, as Altman has made sure OpenAI is in the good graces of the Trump administration. If OpenAI has to pay up to copyright holders after a lawsuit, what’s a few billion dollars here or there when you’re raising so much capital?

On the system card for the Sora 2 AI model (which powers the Sora app), OpenAI says it was trained on things found on the internet:

“Sora 2 was trained on diverse datasets, including information that is publicly available on the internet, information that we partner with third parties to access, and information that our users or human trainers and researchers provide or generate.”

This seems like an invitation for a big copyright lawsuit, along the lines of the one Disney, Dreamworks, and NBCUniversal recently filed against AI image generator Midjourney.

But OpenAI is trying to flip the responsibility of protecting copyrighted material to the intellectual property owners themselves. According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI is allowing copyrighted material in Sora by default, unless copyright holders opt out of the service.

The courts will have to decide if this novel approach to intellectual copyright law works, but government regulators may not be that big of a problem, as Altman has made sure OpenAI is in the good graces of the Trump administration. If OpenAI has to pay up to copyright holders after a lawsuit, what’s a few billion dollars here or there when you’re raising so much capital?

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