Morgan Stanley: The next Google is still most likely Google

Out of the ashes of Microsoft’s mostly toothless monopoly decision rose Google. And out of the ashes of Google’s mostly toothless monopoly decision... Google will also rise. Or at least that’s what Morgan Stanley Research analysts led by Brian Nowak think, calling the remedies in the ruling released yesterday “likely benign and unlikely to dislodge GOOGL’s leading position.”

For the most part, things will remain pretty much exactly the same following the court’s decision. Google’s Chrome browser and Android operating system will remain part of Google. Google will still likely pay Apple for default placement on its iPhone’s Safari browser, though with some minor changes to exclusivity and contract length.

Google will have to share some data with competitors, but Morgan Stanley points out that isn’t a clear path to more competition.

“Data sharing clauses seem (in our view) likely to be somewhat benign as it will still be challenging (and require extensive investment) for a competitor to use GOOGL data to create a viable search threat,” Nowak wrote. “This is likely to be challenging given GOOGL’s leading scale, reach, daily feed of user information, and accelerated pace of improving (and more personalized) GenAI offerings.”