Nviable earnings: Nvidia is the company of the moment

2/20/24 7:00PM

All eyes on me

‍Investors will intensely scrutinize the results of Nvidia after market close today, as one of the most hotly-anticipated releases in recent history will reveal whether the chip giant can build on its stunning 2023 — with analysts expecting more than $20 billion in quarterly revenue (last year, the company did ~$6 billion in Q4).

In 2023, the company rode the wave of AI hype, with its Data Center division reporting quarter after quarter of growth as demand for its GPUs to train AI models skyrocketed. That took Nvidia to the coveted $1 trillion market cap club and, so far this year, the company — or at least the stock — has picked up right where it left off, with a buying frenzy sending it to more than $1.7 trillion, surpassing both Alphabet and Amazon within 24 hrs.

‍Mood setter

‍Nvidia has fast become the pacemaker for equity investors, with moves in Nvidia’s stock highly correlated with moves in the wider stock market: if Nvidia shares are having a good day, chances are the rest of the market is too. Nvidia’s stock has risen more than 2% on 29 days over the last 6 months; on 25 of those days — or 86% of the time — the S&P 500 has also risen.

Expectations for Nvidia are still seriously high, but, as our friends at Snacks put it, the easy days may be over, with rivals Intel and AMD announcing their own AI chips to compete with Nvidia in recent months.

Rani Molla12/31/25

Rather than fully cracking down on scam ads, Meta worked to make them harder to find

In its latest piece on Meta’s scam ads, Reuters found that the social media giant didn’t just remove fraudulent ads from its platforms — it also worked to make them harder for governments and journalists to find.

Fearing that Japanese regulators would require universal advertiser verification — a measure Meta estimated would cost roughly $2 billion to implement and potentially reduce its revenue by nearly 5% — the company took steps to make scam ads less “discoverable” to “regulators, investigators and journalists,” according to internal documents reviewed by Reuters.

“So successful was the search-result cleanup that Meta, the documents show, added the tactic to a ‘general global playbook’ it has deployed against regulatory scrutiny in other markets, including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand,” Reuters wrote.

Previous Reuters reporting found Meta internally projected that about 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads tied to scams and banned goods, though the company later said that estimate was overly broad. Reuters also reported the rate was double in China.

Meta created ‘playbook’ to fend off pressure to crack down on scammers, documents show

Rani Molla12/31/25

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued,” is not currently shorting Tesla

Earlier this month, “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry said Tesla has been “ridiculously overvalued” for “a good long time” — and reiterated that message in a post on X on Tuesday. But the once prominent Tesla short seller isn’t currently betting against the stock.

I am not short
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) December 31, 2025

Asked directly whether he would short Tesla now, Burry replied simply: “I am not short.”

Tesla is expected to report a double-digit decline in fourth-quarter deliveries this week.

Rani Molla12/30/25

SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

Softbank has fully funded $40 billion investment in OpenAI, sources tell CNBC

Rani Molla12/30/25

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

Rani Molla12/29/25

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.