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Tesla just had its best month since the election

The stock is riding high on analyst upgrades and big expected third-quarter sales.

9/29/25 8:09AM

Updated 9/30/25 4:25PM

November 2024 was a great month for Tesla. Its CEO threw his chips in for the winning presidential candidate, who was expected to slash federal red tape for Tesla’s white whale: self-driving cars.

September 2025 was nearly as good — at least in terms of the stock price’s increase from the month before.

Tesla closed at $444, 34% higher than it ended August. Tesla ended last November 38% higher than the month before, at $345. The company’s shares then hit an all-time high in December 2024 before a combination of falling sales and a fallout with President Trump, among other headwinds, sent the stock down. Tesla only went positive for the year earlier this month.

Lately, Tesla has been riding high on a series of analyst upgrades touting the company’s AI and autonomous ambitions. Last week, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives raised his price target for Tesla to a Wall Street high of $600, forecasting a $1 trillion “AI and autonomous opportunity.”

The company is also, for the first time in a while, selling a lot of regular vehicles, which make up the lion’s share of its existing revenue. That part is a bit bittersweet, since the reason for the rise ends tomorrow. Electric vehicles in general are flying off lots in the US, with record sales expected this quarter as would-be buyers pull forward purchases to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credits, which end tomorrow. Of course, that suggests sales will fall off in subsequent quarters. Still, it’s good news now for Tesla, which some analysts predict will have a record quarter that could push the stock even higher.

We’ll know for sure later this week, when Tesla discloses third-quarter delivery numbers.

Update (September 30, 4:00 p.m. ET): Piece has been updated to confirm Tesla did notch its best month since November 2024.

Rani Molla12/31/25

Rather than fully cracking down on scam ads, Meta worked to make them harder to find

In its latest piece on Meta’s scam ads, Reuters found that the social media giant didn’t just remove fraudulent ads from its platforms — it also worked to make them harder for governments and journalists to find.

Fearing that Japanese regulators would require universal advertiser verification — a measure Meta estimated would cost roughly $2 billion to implement and potentially reduce its revenue by nearly 5% — the company took steps to make scam ads less “discoverable” to “regulators, investigators and journalists,” according to internal documents reviewed by Reuters.

“So successful was the search-result cleanup that Meta, the documents show, added the tactic to a ‘general global playbook’ it has deployed against regulatory scrutiny in other markets, including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand,” Reuters wrote.

Previous Reuters reporting found Meta internally projected that about 10% of its 2024 revenue would come from ads tied to scams and banned goods, though the company later said that estimate was overly broad. Reuters also reported the rate was double in China.

Meta created ‘playbook’ to fend off pressure to crack down on scammers, documents show

Rani Molla12/31/25

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who called Tesla “ridiculously overvalued,” is not currently shorting Tesla

Earlier this month, “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry said Tesla has been “ridiculously overvalued” for “a good long time” — and reiterated that message in a post on X on Tuesday. But the once prominent Tesla short seller isn’t currently betting against the stock.

I am not short
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) December 31, 2025

Asked directly whether he would short Tesla now, Burry replied simply: “I am not short.”

Tesla is expected to report a double-digit decline in fourth-quarter deliveries this week.

Rani Molla12/30/25

SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

Softbank has fully funded $40 billion investment in OpenAI, sources tell CNBC

Rani Molla12/30/25

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

Rani Molla12/29/25

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.